Ukrainian Flight PS752 Crashes in Tehran

[Dotini]

Lots of holes.

The fuselage is seen covered in small shrapnel holes
Reuters

Part of the aircraft’s wing can be seen riddled with holes
Abolfazle Mahrokh/ISNA

The plane’s black box flight recorder was pictured on Iranian TV

Another chunk of the plane with the airline’s logo is seen peppered with holes

 

[GTV0819]

By the way, I've read somewhere that the NTSB are unlikely to come and investigate in the crash site at Iran, due to... you know. Current tensions.

 

[Barra333]

Ukrainian airline, Iranian airspace, zero Americans on board. The only possible American involvement would be Boeing looking at the black boxes, which as we know isn't going to happen. NTSB have no reason to be involved.

 

[GTV0819]

^You do know that Boeing is an American manufacturer, right? One reason that the NTSB think they'd be involved because of them. But yes, the manufacturer is the only American there. Nothing else.

 

[Barra333]

^You do know that Boeing is an American manufacturer, right?

Second sentence of my post.

One reason that the NTSB think they'd be involved because of them

Does Boeing need the NTSB to read the black boxes?

 

[TenEightyOne]

I hestitated before posting this because it's unverified and potentially just conspiracist... but we're told this is part of the seeker head of a missile. Of course, one immediately thinks of Malaysian MH17 which was shot down in a warzone after potentially being misidentified as an enemy (Russian) transport. Has something similar happened with flight PS752?



Mods, please could you kindly consider moving the posts from this point in the MAX thread?

@daan, @Famine

 

[GTV0819]

Does Boeing need the NTSB to read the black boxes?

Probably not. Like I said, the NTSB only interferes mostly because Boeing made the 737 but I never said anything that they need them to read the black boxes.

And pretty much I'm sure that recovering or reading those aren't the only part of the investigation.

 

[Eunos_Cosmo]

Apparently US intel has found no tell-tale heat source of a missile launch, but they are still studying.

Would a seeker head stay so relatively pristine if it impacted a commercial airliner? Or does the body of the missile explode before it hits the target?

 

[Barra333]

I'm just saying that there are perfectly competent investigatory boards that are both closer to the site and far more neutral than the US. They don't need to put their nose in absolutely everything (which is a discussion for another thread).

 

[GTV0819]

I completely agree that they don't. It's just that I used to watch episodes of Mayday or Air Crash Investigations and each time a Boeing aircraft is involved in an incident, they often pop out to investigate most of the time.

So that's why I had that thought in mind, if they're going to investigate this or not. And since they're not, it's actually good to hear.

 

[TenEightyOne]

Would a seeker head stay so relatively pristine if it impacted a commercial airliner? Or does the body of the missile explode before it hits the target?

I have absolutely no idea, perhaps one of GTPlanet's resident armament experts (e.g. @RageRacer) would have more idea. It certainly looks in good condition for something that's fallen 8,000 feet after the tube it was attached to exploded.

 

[Exorcet]

Most missiles use proximity warheads. They don't hit their target, but get close enough to explode. The TOR in particular is a short range anti munitions missile, it makes the most sense in a friendly fire incident I'd think, though I don't still don't know how it would end up targeting an airliner taking off.

 

[TenEightyOne]

Most missiles use proximity warheads. They don't hit their target, but get close enough to explode. The TOR in particular is a short range anti munitions missile, it makes the most sense in a friendly fire incident I'd think, though I don't still don't know how it would end up targeting an airliner taking off.

Username checks out

 

[Venom800tt]

Apparently US intel has found no tell-tale heat source of a missile launch, but they are still studying.

Would a seeker head stay so relatively pristine if it impacted a commercial airliner? Or does the body of the missile explode before it hits the target?

Most anti-aircraft missiles proximity detonate a distance from the target aircraft using either blast-fragmentation or a continuous rod warhead. It is very well possible that the seeker can survive the explosion due to the warhead being in the center body of the missile.
Now if that was a possible missile used against that 737 is up for debate, since the only videos I have seen only show the flaming airliner going down rather than what lead up to it catching fire and crashing. Also airliners all have fuel shutoff shutoff valves to cut fuel supply to the engines in the event of a fire, and also have Halon fire suppression to put out engine fires.

 

[Eunos_Cosmo]

I wonder if there was a bomb detonated onboard. It seems like there were no eyewitness accounts of a missile strike and no video evidence of a missile exhaust...which seems like it would have been pretty obvious at night. Also, even if the plane had been struck by a SAM, wouldn't the crew have survived long enough to say...something...over the radio? Just so many questions.

Maybe it was an uncontained turbine failure which rupture the fuel tanks? That would explain the holes in the various fuselage parts. Seems like that would at least explain the appearance of a large fire and the bits of airplane coming off as it went down. Aren't the engines at highest load at this point in takeoff?

 

[TenEightyOne]

I wonder if there was a bomb detonated onboard.

Plausible although there's no sign of internal rupture on the wreckage that we've seen - that's not to say there isn't any.

wouldn't the crew have survived long enough to say...something...over the radio?

Aviate, navigate, communicate. Whatever happened it seems the pilots either didn't get to the Communicate stage or the plane was too damaged for them to be able to. The data goes black at 8,800 feet which suggests the event had a catastrophic effect on the aircraft systems - many of which are triple-redundant. The crew may have believed they were communicating but evidently no transmission was successfully made.

Maybe it was an uncontained turbine failure which rupture the fuel tanks? That would explain the holes in the various fuselage parts.

The holes in the tail would be harder to explain in that scenario, nor would it explain why the crew were unable to communicate and the plane was unable to transmit data. My instinct at the moment is that this is an explosive event caused by human interference. A missile hit wouldn't normally be plausible at all but when itchy trigger fingers are on high alert bad things can (and do) happen.

Statistically there's a far greater likelihood of a bomb being on the plane. Two passengers who were booked to travel didn't - airlines are supposed to remove any associated luggage before take-off and this plane was delayed for an hour after the gate, were they trying to retrieve luggage and then gave up? However, it's hard to see why this plane would be a target for a pre-organised bomb attack and why now, it seems too great a coincidence that this happened at the time it did and therefore I feel it's more likely (however statistically unlikely) that the plane was shot down through some terrible (but staggeringly simple) error.

 

[Dotini]

Overnight BBC America radio is strongly pushing the #1 theory that the plane was shot down by a Russian missile.

 

[Touring Mars]

Reports of comms being lost prior to the plane losing altitude strongly suggests an explosion. While these reports cannot be verified either, it’s hard to see how any form of mechanical failure that could result in the plane going on fire would result in an instant loss of communications at the same time, except for a catastrophic impact of some description. The black boxes will have the answers, but unfortunately they are in the hands of the Iranian authorities who may well be the very ones responsible for the ‘crash’.

Some of the pictures of the wreckage do indeed raise some troubling questions. Why is there a small hole in an otherwise mostly intact tail fin? Why is there one large and some smaller holes ripped in a section of the fuselage?

The other thought that crossed my mind was the possibility of a drone strike - but that would seem extremely unlikely.

 

[dacc10]

The other thought that crossed my mind was the possibility of a drone strike - but that would seem extremely unlikely.

By drone strike you mean, a drone firing a missile against the Boeing, ou a drone flying into the plane?
I mean, western drones usually don't carry air-to-air weapons, even though they have, in theory, the capability to have short range missiles. But that's really unlikely. More likely would be if there was an american drone in the region at high altitude, and the air-defense system mistakenly shot down the airliner bellow.

I don't think it was a mechanical failure, if it was they wouldn't have refused to give the black boxes to Boeing or the ukranian airliner.

Two passengers who were booked to travel didn't - airlines are supposed to remove any associated luggage before take-off and this plane was delayed for an hour after the gate

Where did you get this info from? These details might be quite importante in what really happened.

 

[TenEightyOne]

Where did you get this info from? These details might be quite importante in what really happened.

I've read that two passengers weren't on the flight, one was Roja Azadian and I'm trying to confirm that a second passenger missed the flight. It shouldn't be important given that non-flying passengers' baggage is supposed to be removed from a flight before it takes off as a precaution against bombs being smuggled onto planes. However, at the moment all options seem open although I'm not buying "catastrophic engine failure", the transponder is way forward of that and has its own power.

 

[MisterWaffles]

I’m not saying it’s 100% true, but given the fact that any other plane-related issue should still give the pilots time to communicate their problem or deal with it, the proximity of this incident to a greater conflict in the region, and the loss of communication in the air followed by a fireball, it leaves very little possibility that this was a mechanical fault of some kind.

Since Iran doesn’t want to co-operate in the investigation and are holding onto the black box and not allowing the families of the victims any closure, it seems to me like there’s a very large possibility that they’re covering up the fact that they accidentally shot a civilian airliner on the same night as the missile strikes.

Pure speculation, but the circumstances make it hard to believe otherwise for me.

 

[Joey D]

It looks like the plane was turning around at the time of the crash: https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/09/middleeast/iran-plane-crash-thursday-intl/index.html

While this certainly doesn't rule anything out, it does suggest that the pilots noticed a mechanical failure. Although that mechanical failure could've been because a SAM hit an engine. I'm not sure about the communications though, that seems weird that they weren't there. I don't know enough about 737's to know where all the coms equipment are, but I'd assume it's near the front of the plane.

I do wonder what the regulations around airplanes are in Iran though. I know in the US, we have pretty strict oversight but I'm not sure what it's like in other countries. I'm guessing it's similar since no one wants to be responsible for a plane crash, but still, something could've been overlooked. Also, given the situation that was going on, the ground crew could've been a tad distracted. I'm sure being on the verge of war will shake most people and they could've overlooked a problem because of it.

 

[TenEightyOne]

I do wonder what the regulations around airplanes are in Iran though. I know in the US, we have pretty strict oversight but I'm not sure what it's like in other countries.

Ukraine Air is a pretty safe airline, much safer than some US airlines. Iran is an ICAO member and I'm pretty sure there haven't been any accidents at Tehran in the last couple of decades (at least) that were linked to ground crew "failure", they've all been linked to airline/type failure. The -800 type itself is very safe, there have been two uncontained engine failures and in both cases the plane was able to fly to an airport.

However, as you say, this may have been a time of stress for ground crews. I saw a report that the aircraft was cleared out of the gate almost an hour before take-off, that hints at a potential problem being identified, this may be baggage removal (can happen after a gate is cleared for another boarding), a cockpit warning indication or a problem with ground vehicles, I'm trying to find a proper confirmation of that amongst the inevitable news noise.

 

[Touring Mars]

The fact that the plane’s take-off was delayed could be significant - at the very least, it means that it was in Tehran airspace when it should not have been.

With nearby military bases and militias on high(est) alert, it is possible (plausible even) that the plane was incorrectly ruled out as a civilian aircraft and targeted by air defence systems...

 

[TenEightyOne]

The (Iranian) claim that the plane was ‘on a path returning to the airport’ is fairly ludicrous.

It seems to have been heading SE at the moment of impact although it took off to the NW, that's possibly the reasoning for saying it was attempting to return to the airport. Frankly I'm with you, the idea is ludicrous. The pilots wouldn't have been doing anything other than trying to get onto the ground. With no transponder information we don't know how quickly it came down but from the film clip I've seen it doesn't look very airworthy.

 

[Touring Mars]

The crash site is apparently almost due north of the airport, and the plane was indeed travelling in the opposite direction to where the radar tracking of the flight was lost - the crash site is some 20km from where the radar track ends.

Bit of a dumb question, but how did the plane disappear from radar? It is one thing that the pilots didn’t communicate with air traffic controller, but losing radar contact is another thing entirely isn’t it?

As I added to my last post, do you think the delay in takeoff could be significant?

 

[ryzno]

https://www.foxnews.com/world/ukrai...i-aircraft-missile-pentagon-officials-believe

 

[baldgye]

A link that won’t give you some sort of brain damage; https://www.newsweek.com/iranians-shot-down-ukraine-flight-mistake-sources-1481313

 

[Danoff]

A link that won’t give you some sort of brain damage; https://www.newsweek.com/iranians-shot-down-ukraine-flight-mistake-sources-1481313

Sniff test of the story seems to check out.

 

[Touring Mars]

A link that won’t give you some sort of brain damage; https://www.newsweek.com/iranians-shot-down-ukraine-flight-mistake-sources-1481313

You sure about that...?

"Well, I have my suspicions," President Donald Trump told reporters at the White House following Newsweek's report. "It was flying in a pretty rough neighborhood and someone could have made a mistake."

-

As said above, I strongly suspect that the delay to the flight could have put the flight in jeopardy - of all the nights to fly out of Tehran airport off schedule, that was not a good night to pick.