Ukrainian Flight PS752 Crashes in Tehran

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You sure about that...?
I mean, I can’t do much about what dumb **** the President of the United States says... just like I cant do anything about the stupid **** my Prime Minister comes out with.


It was more to protect from having to venture near Fox News
 
Bit of a dumb question, but how did the plane disappear from radar?

It's either too small or too low to show. It could have come down quite some distance in between showing normally and the next sweep of the radar - that depends on the speed of the radar. Normally the transponder would give a secondary location (EDIT: A secondary confirmation of altitude and coordinates) that's updated more quickly than the "physical" radar confirmation, in this case we know the transponder abruptly ceased transmission.

Also, the plane was actually at fewer than 5,000 feet in altitude, radar's only effective above 500-ish feet dependent on terrain and range/elevation of any given target. The 8,000 feet figure is the above-sea-level height of the aircraft, Tehran airport is at 3,305ft altitude so the transponderless aircraft only had to descend 4000-ish feet between radar sweeps to be invisible.
 
It is now being reported in the UK MSM that ‘Western officials’ now believe that Flight PS752 was shot down by Iranian forces accidentally.

Iran has dismissed the views as ‘illogical’.... seemingly not understanding what the word ‘accidental’ means - it would only be ‘illogical’ if they did it on purpose, and simply being illogical doesn’t prevent it from being possible...

All in all, its been a pretty awful week for Iran. Firstly, they send their top general to Iraq on a ‘peace’ mission, only for him to be assassinated by US forces (on the basis that his visit was far from what Iran stated it was about), 50 are killed and hundreds are injured in a stampede at his funeral, Iran respond by firing missiles at US air bases apparently intending to cause no casualties, but (in all likelihood) manage to accidentally kill over 170 people, mostly Iranian nationals and dual-nationals in the process.

If anyone else is thinking you picked the wrong week to quit drinking, you are not alone.
 
The Washington Free Beacon is a neoconservative outlet. They allege a NOTAM. Perhaps our expert @TenEightyOne can check this out for us?

U.S. Issued No-Fly Order Over Iran, Iraq Hours Before Ukrainian Plane Downed

FAA stopped U.S. commercial traffic over the region, potentially saving American lives

crash-736x475.jpg
An engine lies on the ground after a Ukrainian plane carrying 176 passengers crashed near Imam Khomeini airport in the Iranian capital Tehran early in the morning on January 8, 2020 / Getty Images

Adam Kredo - JANUARY 9, 2020 2:40 PM

Just hours before a Ukrainian plane was shot down Wednesday over Iran, the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration issued a no-fly order over Iran and Iraq, potentially saving scores of American lives.

A Notice to Airmen (NOTAM) warning of potential hazards along flight routes in the war-torn region was first issued Tuesday evening by the FAA, just before a Ukrainian plane crashed near Tehran. U.S. officials believe Iran may have mistakenly shot down the plane in its airspace as tensions with the United States hit new levels.

"Our NOTAMs were published roughly three hours before the accident," a FAA spokesman told the Washington Free Beacon Thursday.

The no-fly order outlined "flight restrictions that prohibit U.S. civil aviation operators from operating in the airspace over Iraq, Iran, and the waters of the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman."

"The FAA will continue closely monitoring events in the Middle East," the NOTAM said. "We continue coordinating with our national security partners and sharing information with U.S. air carriers and foreign civil aviation authorities."

While the FAA official would not "speculate on what effect [the notice] might have had," one senior congressional official who works on airline issues told the Free Beacon that the order "may well have saved American lives."

"Iran is not a normal country, and they regularly act in reckless and unprofessional ways," said the congressional source, who was not authorized to speak on record. "The FAA showed vigilance and competence in publishing the NOTAMs when they did, and they may well have saved American lives."

https://freebeacon.com/national-sec...ran-iraq-hours-before-ukrainian-plane-downed/
 
The Washington Free Beacon is a neoconservative outlet. They allege a NOTAM. Perhaps our expert @TenEightyOne can check this out for us?

I'm no expert but I've got a copy of the three relevant NOTAMs for you. These were issued immediately after the missile attacks as far as I can tell, so that would indeed be several hours before the plane crash.

A0001/20 (Issued for KICZ PART 1 OF 2) – SECURITY..UNITED STATES OF AMERICA PROHIBITION AGAINST CERTAIN FLIGHTS IN THE BAGHDAD FLIGHT INFORMATION REGION (FIR) (ORBB). THOSE PERSONS DESCRIBED IN PARAGRAPH A (APPLICABLITY) BELOW ARE PROHIBITED FROM OPERATING IN THE BAGHDAD FLIGHT INFORMATION REGION (FIR) (ORBB) DUE TO HEIGHTENED MILITARY ACTIVITIES AND INCREASED POLITICAL TENSIONS IN THE MIDDLE EAST, WHICH PRESENT AN INADVERTENT RISK TO U.S. CIVIL AVIATION OPERATIONS DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR MISCALCULATION OR MIS-IDENTIFICATION. A. APPLICABILITY. THIS NOTAM APPLIES TO: ALL U.S. AIR CARRIERS AND COMMERCIAL OPERATORS; ALL PERSONS EXERCISING THE PRIVILEGES OF AN AIRMAN CERTIFICATE ISSUED BY THE FAA, EXCEPT SUCH PERSONS OPERATING U.S.-REGISTERED AIRCRAFT FOR A FOREIGN AIR CARRIER; AND ALL OPERATORS OF AIRCRAFT REGISTERED IN THE UNITED STATES, EXCEPT WHERE THE OPERATOR OF SUCH AIRCRAFT IS A FOREIGN AIR CARRIER. B. PERMITTED OPERATIONS. THIS NOTAM DOES NOT PROHIBIT PERSONS DESCRIBED IN PARAGRAPH A (APPLICABILITY) FROM CONDUCTING FLIGHT OPERATIONS IN THE BAGHDAD FIR (ORBB) WHEN SUCH OPERATIONS ARE AUTHORIZED EITHER BY ANOTHER AGENCY OF THE UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT END PART 1 OF 2. 07 JAN 23:45 2020 UNTIL PERM. CREATED: 07 JAN 23:49 2020

A0001/20 (Issued for KICZ PART 2 OF 2) – WITH THE APPROVAL OF THE FAA OR BY A DEVIATION, EXEMPTION, OR OTHER AUTHORIZATION ISSUED BY THE FAA ADMINISTRATOR. OPERATORS MUST CALL THE FAA WASHINGTON OPERATIONS CENTER AT 202-267-3333 TO INITIATE COORDINATION FOR FAA AUTHORIZATION TO CONDUCT OPERATIONS. C. EMERGENCY SITUATIONS. IN AN EMERGENCY THAT REQUIRES IMMEDIATE DECISION AND ACTION FOR THE SAFETY OF THE FLIGHT, THE PILOT IN COMMAND OF AN AIRCRAFT MAY DEVIATE FROM THIS NOTAM TO THE EXTENT REQUIRED BY THAT EMERGENCY. THIS NOTAM IS AN EMERGENCY ORDER ISSUED UNDER 49 USC 40113(A), 44701(A)(5), AND 46105(C). ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AT: HTTPS://WWW.FAA.GOV/AIR_TRAFFIC/PUBLICATIONS/US_RESTRICTIONS/. SFC – UNL END PART 2 OF 2, 07 JAN 23:45 2020 UNTIL PERM. CREATED: 07 JAN 23:49 2020

A0002/20 (Issued for KICZ PART 1 OF 2) – SECURITY..UNITED STATES OF AMERICA PROHIBITION AGAINST CERTAIN FLIGHTS IN THE TEHRAN FLIGHT INFORMATION REGION (FIR) (OIIX). THOSE PERSONS DESCRIBED IN PARAGRAPH A (APPLICABLITY) BELOW ARE PROHIBITED FROM OPERATING IN THE TEHRAN FLIGHT INFORMATION REGION (FIR) (OIIX) DUE TO HEIGHTENED MILITARY ACTIVITIES AND INCREASED POLITICAL TENSIONS IN THE MIDDLE EAST, WHICH PRESENT AN INADVERTENT RISK TO U.S. CIVIL AVIATION OPERATIONS DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR MISCALCULATION OR MIS-IDENTIFICATION. A. APPLICABILITY. THIS NOTAM APPLIES TO: ALL U.S. AIR CARRIERS AND COMMERCIAL OPERATORS; ALL PERSONS EXERCISING THE PRIVILEGES OF AN AIRMAN CERTIFICATE ISSUED BY THE FAA, EXCEPT SUCH PERSONS OPERATING U.S.-REGISTERED AIRCRAFT FOR A FOREIGN AIR CARRIER; AND ALL OPERATORS OF AIRCRAFT REGISTERED IN THE UNITED STATES, EXCEPT WHERE THE OPERATOR OF SUCH AIRCRAFT IS A FOREIGN AIR CARRIER. B. PERMITTED OPERATIONS. THIS NOTAM DOES NOT PROHIBIT PERSONS DESCRIBED IN PARAGRAPH A (APPLICABILITY) FROM CONDUCTING FLIGHT OPERATIONS IN THE ABOVE-NAMED AREA WHEN SUCH OPERATIONS ARE AUTHORIZED EITHER BY ANOTHER AGENCY OF THE UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT END PART 1 OF 2. 08 JAN 00:10 2020 UNTIL PERM. CREATED: 08 JAN 00:07 2020

A0002/20 (Issued for KICZ PART 2 OF 2) – WITH THE APPROVAL OF THE FAA OR BY A DEVIATION, EXEMPTION, OR OTHER AUTHORIZATION ISSUED BY THE FAA ADMINISTRATOR. OPERATORS MUST CALL THE FAA WASHINGTON OPERATIONS CENTER AT 202-267-3333 TO INITIATE COORDINATION FOR FAA AUTHORIZATION TO CONDUCT OPERATIONS. C. EMERGENCY SITUATIONS. IN AN EMERGENCY THAT REQUIRES IMMEDIATE DECISION AND ACTION FOR THE SAFETY OF THE FLIGHT, THE PILOT IN COMMAND OF AN AIRCRAFT MAY DEVIATE FROM THIS NOTAM TO THE EXTENT REQUIRED BY THAT EMERGENCY. THIS NOTAM IS AN EMERGENCY ORDER ISSUED UNDER 49 USC 40113(A), 44701(A)(5), AND 46105(C). ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AT: HTTP://WWW.FAA.GOV/AIR_TRAFFIC/PUBLICATIONS/US_RESTRICTIONS/. SFC – UNL END PART 2 OF 2, 08 JAN 00:10 2020 UNTIL PERM. CREATED: 08 JAN 00:07 2020

A0003/20 (Issued for KICZ PART 1 OF 2) – SECURITY..UNITED STATES OF AMERICA PROHIBITION AGAINST CERTAIN FLIGHTS IN THE OVERWATER AIRSPACE ABOVE THE PERSIAN GULF AND THE GULF OF OMAN. THOSE PERSONS DESCRIBED IN PARAGRAPH A (APPLICABILITY) ARE PROHIBITED FROM OPERATING IN THE OVERWATER AIRSPACE ABOVE THE PERSIAN GULF AND THE GULF OF OMAN DUE TO HEIGHTENED MILITARY ACTIVITIES AND INCREASED POLITICAL TENSIONS IN THE MIDDLE EAST, WHICH PRESENT AN INADVERTENT RISK TO U.S. CIVIL AVIATION OPERATIONS DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR MISCALCULATION OR MIS-IDENTIFICATION. A. APPLICABILITY. THIS NOTAM APPLIES TO: ALL U.S. AIR CARRIERS AND COMMERCIAL OPERATORS; ALL PERSONS EXERCISING THE PRIVILEGES OF AN AIRMAN CERTIFICATE ISSUED BY THE FAA, EXCEPT SUCH PERSONS OPERATING U.S.-REGISTERED AIRCRAFT FOR A FOREIGN AIR CARRIER; AND ALL OPERATORS OF AIRCRAFT REGISTERED IN THE UNITED STATES, EXCEPT WHERE THE OPERATOR OF SUCH AIRCRAFT IS A FOREIGN AIR CARRIER. B. PERMITTED OPERATIONS. THIS NOTAM DOES NOT PROHIBIT PERSONS DESCRIBED IN PARAGRAPH A (APPLICABILITY) FROM CONDUCTING FLIGHT OPERATIONS IN THE ABOVE-NAMED AREA WHEN SUCH OPERATIONS ARE END PART 1 OF 2. 08 JAN 00:10 2020 UNTIL PERM. CREATED: 08 JAN 00:07 2020

A0003/20 (Issued for KICZ PART 2 OF 2) – AUTHORIZED EITHER BY ANOTHER AGENCY OF THE UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT WITH THE APPROVAL OF THE FAA OR BY A DEVIATION, EXEMPTION, OR OTHER AUTHORIZATION ISSUED BY THE FAA ADMINISTRATOR. OPERATORS MUST CALL THE FAA WASHINGTON OPERATIONS CENTER AT 202-267-3333 TO INITIATE COORDINATION FOR FAA AUTHORIZATION TO CONDUCT OPERATIONS. C. EMERGENCY SITUATIONS. IN AN EMERGENCY THAT REQUIRES IMMEDIATE DECISION AND ACTION FOR THE SAFETY OF THE FLIGHT, THE PILOT IN COMMAND OF AN AIRCRAFT MAY DEVIATE FROM THIS NOTAM TO THE EXTENT REQUIRED BY THAT EMERGENCY. THIS NOTAM IS AN EMERGENCY ORDER ISSUED UNDER 49 USC 40113(A), 44701(A)(5), AND 46105(C). ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AT: HTTPS://WWW.FAA.GOV/AIR_TRAFFIC/PUBLICATIONS/US_RESTRICTIONS/. SFC – UNL END PART 2 OF 2, 08 JAN 00:10 2020 UNTIL PERM. CREATED: 08 JAN 00:07 2020
 
Donald Trump himself boasted of ‘early warning systems’ that saved US lives the other night - but failed to mention that this included warnings from Iran themselves, not to mention that Iran also intended to hit specified targets that would not result in US lives being lost.

Perhaps then, it was a monumental stroke of luck that there was not any US citizens on board Flight PS752 - even though it looks like the no fly order over Iran and Iraq was a very wise move... though, being hyper-critical here, I would have thought it was a no-brainer for airlines to postpone or cancel flights from Tehran that night, but hey.
 
Donald Trump himself boasted of ‘early warning systems’ that saved US lives the other night - but failed to mention that this included warnings from Iran themselves, not to mention that Iran also intended to hit specified targets that would not result in US lives being lost.

Perhaps then, it was a monumental stroke of luck that there was not any US citizens on board Flight PS752 - even though it looks like the no fly order over Iran and Iraq was a very wise move... though, being hyper-critical here, I would have thought it was a no-brainer for airlines to postpone or cancel flights from Tehran that night, but hey.

The government over-uses some warnings too. Like for example, China is regarded with a level 2 travel advisory (for excellent reasons). Seems appropriate. Oh wait... Germany is at the same level.

Edit: Also Spain and the UK... same level of Saudi Arabia. Kuwait is level 1.
 
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Do we know if there was regular air traffic coming out of Tehran International at the time of the crash? Or was this the only plane in the air?

I think it was inferred here (by at least @Touring Mars) that the delay on the ground may have caused the plane to be improperly identified. So even amidst regular traffic it would potentially have stuck out.
 
Do we know if there was regular air traffic coming out of Tehran International at the time of the crash? Or was this the only plane in the air?

There was. Apparently several international airlines were in the airspace. I'm pretty sure American carriers don't actually fly into Iran, but I could well be wrong.

Further to the NOTAMs I posted earlier, only the Iran one was new - the others were already largely in place and were simply updated in light of developing events.

I think it was inferred here (by at least @Touring Mars) that the delay on the ground may have caused the plane to be improperly identified. So even amidst regular traffic it would potentially have stuck out.

The question is... what were they looking to shoot down? Were they looking to shoot anything down or is this the most catastrophic kind of user error?
 
There was. Apparently several international airlines were in the airspace. I'm pretty sure American carriers don't actually fly into Iran, but I could well be wrong.

Correct.

Further to the NOTAMs I posted earlier, only the Iran one was new - the others were already largely in place and were simply updated in light of developing events.

I'm guessing the NOTAM's have no jurisdiction/application for non-American carriers.

The question is... what were they looking to shoot down? Were they looking to shoot anything down or is this the most catastrophic kind of user error?

I can't imagine a scenario in which Iran shot down an airplane full of its own people on purpose.

Do we know for certain that American drones were not also in Iranian airspace? Probably not and we would probably never know even if they were.

The only thing I can think of is that some SAM battery operator couldn't immediately explain why that plane was there when it was there (delay, radar glitch/anomaly) and decided that a risk to the capital was too great not to take the shot.

It's a damn tragedy is what it is.

Apparently there were a lot of PhD students in their 20s heading back to Canada to resume classes in the spring semester.
 
The question is... what were they looking to shoot down? Were they looking to shoot anything down or is this the most catastrophic kind of user error?
The lady on TV said these SA-15 SAM batteries can be operated in automated mode with no human commands needed to fire. So maybe it was an AI issue, no human error at all?

Dave: What happened HAL?
HAL: I was cleaning the missile, Dave, and it went off.
Dave: Open the pod bay doors, HAL.
 
The lady on TV said these SA-15 SAM batteries can be operated in automated mode with no human commands needed to fire. So maybe it was an AI issue, no human error at all?

This was my first instinct as well. It's possible that as a result of highly escalated tensions between the US and Iran, that they activated an automated SAM battery that isn't normally active in anticipation of a potential US assault. The SAM battery detected an object it wasn't expecting (due to delayed takeoff) and blew it up according to program.

The question is... what were they looking to shoot down?

So I'm suggesting the answer to this is... Americans. Or at least American-operated equipment.
 
There's a video that claims to show the moment the airliner was shot down. I won't provide a link, I'm sure a quick internet search will find it. It's lights in the sky so could be anything, but it's easy to believe that it shows a missile climbing to something which then explodes.

The "missile" climbs from left to right, whatever it ignites appears to be passing from right to left - that's consistent with the plane being hit in the front (or hitting a shrapnel cloud detonated ahead of it) which would cause a wipeout of most control and comm systems. Awful.

EDIT: Further to the delay, I'd read that it was an hour, the consensus now seems to be that it was only running 20 minutes late. I guess that's still to be confirmed in a prelim report.
 
There's a video that claims to show the moment the airliner was shot down. I won't provide a link, I'm sure a quick internet search will find it. It's lights in the sky so could be anything, but it's easy to believe that it shows a missile climbing to something which then explodes.

The "missile" climbs from left to right, whatever it ignites appears to be passing from right to left - that's consistent with the plane being hit in the front (or hitting a shrapnel cloud detonated ahead of it) which would cause a wipeout of most control and comm systems. Awful.

EDIT: Further to the delay, I'd read that it was an hour, the consensus now seems to be that it was only running 20 minutes late. I guess that's still to be confirmed in a prelim report.

I've seen the video...it's made it to CNN. Does beg the question why was somebody filming the night sky before anything unusual happened.
 
I've seen the video...it's made it to CNN. Does beg the question why was somebody filming the night sky before anything unusual happened.

As I understand it the Farsi voices in the video suggest they heard a missile launch/alert and went outside to film what was happening.
 
What if it was a combination of things? What if the plane experienced a mechanical failure, and/or lost the ability to communicate, turned around, but was then shot down for deviating from its flight path and failing to communicate, either by a trigger happy operator or confused AI?

Hypothetical scenario, the US expecting an attack on the east coast, a civilian plane takes off from JFK, stops communicating, deviates from its flight path and heads back towards New York...I think there’s a decent chance that plane would be shot down if there wasn’t time for fighters to intercept it.


I saw several of the NOTAMS posted on twitter as events were unfolding. Along with US carriers, I know British flights in the region were rerouted as well.

The one thing I can’t for the life of me figure out is, if Iran was actually expecting some sort of US counter attack, with Tehran being a likely target, why was civilian air traffic not grounded?


As a Canadian, I find it quite embarrassing how many members of our media are being so quick to blame this on Trump, claiming he has Canadian blood on his hands. This has been a back and forth conflict for over 40 years now. Ultimately, if it was in fact an Iranian missile that shot down PS752, then they are responsible, regardless of what events led up to this. It’s almost to the point where it seems like people are looking at Iranians as mentally and morally inferior people, incapable of being held responsible for their actions.
 
What if it was a combination of things? What if the plane experienced a mechanical failure, and/or lost the ability to communicate, turned around, but was then shot down for deviating from its flight path and failing to communicate, either by a trigger happy operator or confused AI?

This occurred to me as well and could be the reason Iran and Ukraine both initially blamed the crash on a mechanical malfunction.

I believe the plane turned towards the north before being shot down...but I could have that wrong. If it did turn north, that would have had it headed towards Tehran.
 
What if it was a combination of things? What if the plane experienced a mechanical failure, and/or lost the ability to communicate, turned around, but was then shot down for deviating from its flight path and failing to communicate, either by a trigger happy operator or confused AI?

Hypothetical scenario, the US expecting an attack on the east coast, a civilian plane takes off from JFK, stops communicating, deviates from its flight path and heads back towards New York...I think there’s a decent chance that plane would be shot down if there wasn’t time for fighters to intercept it.

For some reason I feel like the US would be more likely to suspect a 911-style suicide run than Iran would be. The profile of a US attack doesn't seem to fit a suicide hijacking.
 
I've seen the video...it's made it to CNN. Does beg the question why was somebody filming the night sky before anything unusual happened.

If you spend any time on Reddit, you'll ask yourself constantly why someone was filming. I've learned that with 7 billion people on the planet, someone, somewhere, is going to film anything and everything.
 
I am at a loss for this. ROE should be such that this didnt happen on accident. Common sense should be such that this didnt happen on accident. The due diligence of all those in the chain, from the gunner all the way up to the commander ordering the strike should be such that this didnt happen on accident.
If this was an accident, the level of incompetence should have the whole world worried.
 
I am at a loss for this. ROE should be such that this didnt happen on accident. Common sense should be such that this didnt happen on accident. The due diligence of all those in the chain, from the gunner all the way up to the commander ordering the strike should be such that this didnt happen on accident.
If this was an accident, the level of incompetence should have the whole world worried.
The US has had plenty of experience with nuclear bomb accidents. What's worth doing is worth doing badly?

Or maybe it's Iran has lost the mandate of heaven, Allah is showing his displeasure?
 
Thinking about it more, even the idea of a trigger happy operator doesn’t really make sense, being as it was supposedly a TOR that fired the missile.

To my understanding, the TOR is a short range defense system. They typically do not operate as a stand alone unit, but as part of an integrated network of various radar stations and missile sites. Any B-52s, B1-Bs, F-15Es, or cruise missiles launched from a ship/sub would be picked up on radar long before they got within range of a TOR in Tehran. Things like B-2s, F-22s, or F-35s could potentially get closer to Tehran undetected, but they would be firing stand-off range weapons that would keep them outside of TOR range. Even if radar picked up a stand-off range weapon fired from a stealth plane, that weapon would look a hell of a lot different on Radar than a Boeing 737.

My point being, the excuse that, “we were on high alert and thought there was an American bomber/fighter,” doesn’t really cut it, as it’s unlikely a TOR would be used in that situation given the stand-off range of American weapons, and the weapons themselves looking nothing like a 737 on Radar.

The idea of an automated system becoming confused by an unresponsive airplane deviating from its flight path during a time of raised alertness, seems far more plausible than a TOR trying to shoot at a far off American aircraft, or multiple human operators mistaking a 737 for a cruise missile or other weapon.

I also think the story of an unresponsive plane deviating from its flight path and then being targeted by an automated system, gives the Iranians the best chance of navigating their way out of this mess.
 
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