Ukrainian Flight PS752 Crashes in Tehran

[twitcher]

I think the only similarities between 655 and 752 are that a civilian airliner got shot down.

655 took off from an airport where Iranian fighters were stationed, there was allegedly multiple attempts to contact it, communication went up and down the American chain of command on whether to fire on it, the Vincennes was engaged in a fire fight (as piddly as it may have been).

It’s not the same as 752 taking off from Tehran, and being shot down by a short range missile system that is defending Tehran.

 

[Dotini]

I'm willing to accept that the recent shootdown was an accident, and the old one was deliberate. Or the other way around. Either way it's whataboutery and not important. The important thing is Iran is reeling in doubt and confusion and the US has penetrated their innermost communications. Now may be a good time to go on the offensive with diplomacy.

 

[Joey D]

The New York Times used satellite imagery from Maxar Technologies and managed to pinpoint where the video of the plane being hit was taken. If it's an old video or somehow a fake, it's pretty convincing given the location matches up to where the plane was when it lost coms. You can see the article here: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/09/video/iran-plane-missile.html

Also, it looks like Iran has relaxed on who can investigate. The US National Transportation Safety Board, Boeing, Transportation Safety Board of Canada, and representatives from Ukraine all have invites to assist with the investigation. Whether that means the black boxes will be looked at is another story, but still, it's good news that others are being brought in.

 

[ryzno]

Also, it looks like Iran has relaxed on who can investigate. The US National Transportation Safety Board, Boeing, Transportation Safety Board of Canada, and representatives from Ukraine all have invites to assist with the investigation. Whether that means the black boxes will be looked at is another story, but still, it's good news that others are being brought in.

I don't know how those BBs work but could they be releasing them cause they are "happy" with the data on them?

 

[eran0004]

It looked pretty clear from the start that it was a missile. A plane does not simply catch fire and come straight down like that, no matter what the technical problem is.

The fact that the flight was delayed might be the reason why the air defence didn’t expect to see it on their radar.

 

[Joey D]

I don't know how those BBs work but could they be releasing them cause they are "happy" with the data on them?

I'm not a 100% sure, but it sounds like the Iranians are having a hard time pulling data off of it. The black boxes are apparently damaged too and require someone who knows what they're doing to open them. This is at least what various news outlets are reporting. I'm not sure if @TenEightyOne works in the industry or is just aviation enthusiasts, but I'm guessing he'd know more about it then me. All I really know about black boxes is that they're actually orange.

 

[Blitz24]

I'm not a 100% sure, but it sounds like the Iranians are having a hard time pulling data off of it. The black boxes are apparently damaged too and require someone who knows what they're doing to open them. This is at least what various news outlets are reporting. I'm not sure if @TenEightyOne works in the industry or is just aviation enthusiasts, but I'm guessing he'd know more about it then me. All I really know about black boxes is that they're actually orange.

I doubt they will be happy with the data regardless of if they had pulled it or not. The videos circulating don't point to anything good. Would there be a tell-tale sign on a recorder that would suggest an external intrusion vs. an internal explosion (so what happened to Flight 17 over Ukraine vs. what happened in Lockerbie)?

 

[TenEightyOne]

Would there be a tell-tale sign on a recorder that would suggest an external intrusion vs. an internal explosion (so what happened to Flight 17 over Ukraine vs. what happened in Lockerbie)

Much more data is recorded now than was in the Lockerbie days although the mid-air separation of Pan Am 103 at a particular, evident point gave investigators an obvious early pointer, particularly given that there were warnings in place that such an event was expected.

It's mandatory for modern FDRs to record the parameters listed in this document on page 153, in the case of a detonation outside the aircraft one would expect to see quick lateral/longitudinal acceleration or deceleration that isn't explained by the engine power or thrust tracks, accompanied by "flutter" in the flight control surfaces. If a catastrophic event has occurred around the FDR's storage location it may have suddenly stopped recording or may have begun to record null inputs, but the final second or so of the data should still show signs of the external effects. If there's an internal detonation that has destroyed the front end of the plane then there would be fewer of these signs. There should be a recording of master warnings and crew inputs up until the FDR failure. The second set of clues comes from the CVR, particularly the involuntary exclamations of the flight crew or the sounds of a catastrophic event (crucial in Pan Am 103).

In this case it seems the pilots may have been exercising partial control over the aircraft which suggests that the flight deck was at least somewhat intact - if that's the case then the FDR should still have been recording something, even if numerous inputs were null at that point.

It looked pretty clear from the start that it was a missile. A plane does not simply catch fire and come straight down like that, no matter what the technical problem is.

TWA 800 springs to mind - and in that accident witnesses were confused by the speed of sound, combined what they heard with what they saw, and became convinced (with the partial help of the FBI) that they'd seen a missile strike. What they'd seen was a fuel tank explosion a long way away with mismatched perceptions of which sounds went with which visual event. With that said the problem with that aircraft was one that should never be repeated and certainly has never been on any 737.

The fact that the flight was delayed might be the reason why the air defence didn’t expect to see it on their radar.

I'm still not sure about this... a 737 on a normal climb from an international airport? Checking squawk codes (the individual identifying number transmitted by each plane) should be SOP for any battery, particularly near an airport. The Iranians can be quite mad but they aren't that stupid, surely?

 

[Crash]

An absolute tragedy. Looking online at graphs that estimate the plane's path of travel between loss of transponder signal and crash, it's really hard to say for sure whether the right turn towards north was due to the pilot trying to turn around and return to the airport, or if it was due to the right wing being severely damaged and causing the plane to only be able to bank and fly right if it was hit by a missile mid-air.

 

[Touring Mars]

Yeh, the idea that the plane was ‘trying to return to the airport’ has, quite literally, been blown out of the sky... why would an experienced pilot aim for an airport or head back towards the city after being hit by a missile?!

The fact that Iran is now inviting others to assist with the investigation is also something of a sick joke. It is now obvious (as if it wasn’t before) that the plane was shot down - the only thing that needs investigating is how, by whom, and why. It looks extremely likely that it was a SAM launched by the Iranians, so the big question is why...

While the delay could have put the flight in more danger, it still beggars belief that a flight just minutes from Tehran international airport on a seemingly normal route and at a normal height etc. could possibly be mistaken for anything else - not to mention the fact that it was flying away from Tehran at the time. That leaves open a discomfiting possibility - that it was not an accident.

It may well point to the troubling idea that there are different groups with the capability to take down planes, drones etc., and that they are acting on their own ‘intelligence’ (or indeed lack of it).

There is also a strong suggestion that two missiles were fired and that the person who filmed the impact of the missile with the plane may well have witnessed the first one (either visually or aurally) and started recording, only to then capture the second missile and the impact.

 

[baldgye]

Yeh, the idea that the plane was ‘trying to return to the airport’ has, quite literally, been blown out of the sky... why would an experienced pilot aim for an airport or head back towards the city after being hit by a missile?!

The fact that Iran is now inviting others to assist with the investigation is also something of a sick joke. It is now obvious (as if it wasn’t before) that the plane was shot down - the only thing that needs investigating is how, by whom, and why. It looks extremely likely that it was a SAM launched by the Iranians, so the big question is why...

While the delay could have put the flight in more danger, it still beggars belief that a flight just minutes from Tehran international airport on a seemingly normal route and at a normal height etc. could possibly be mistaken for anything else - not to mention the fact that it was flying away from Tehran at the time. That leaves open a discomfiting possibility - that it was not an accident.

It may well point to the troubling idea that there are different groups with the capability to take down planes, drones etc., and that they are acting on their own ‘intelligence’ (or indeed lack of it).

There is also a strong suggestion that two missiles were fired and that the person who filmed the impact of the missile with the plane may well have witnessed the first one (either visually or aurally) and started recording, only to then capture the second missile and the impact.

From my understanding, the plane took off and was flying not that long after Iran had launched their retaliatory strike on the US airbase. As such their missile defence systems and operators would have been on high alert and normal safe-guards that would prevent an accidental miss-identification/launch would have been removed as this would have delayed their defences in wake of a US attack.
It's also my understanding that the planes identificator could have been faulty and this fault and an operator in that situation probably simply mistook his available information.

Seems this is just another example of Iranians suffering due to the relations between Iran and the US...

 

[Touring Mars]

Given that the flight was showing up on radar tracking websites, I can’t believe that there was some sort of fault with the plane - well, not before it was hit by a surface to air missile anyway.

It would also be very hard to explain how a passenger jet could be allowed to take off if it were not showing up as the correct flight and/or couldn’t be identified by air traffic control prior to take off.

Iran are now claiming that it is ‘scientifically impossible’ that the plane was hit by a missile. Eh?

 

[baldgye]

Given that the flight was showing up on radar tracking websites, I can’t believe that there was some sort of fault with the plane - well, not before it was hit by a surface to air missile anyway.

It would also be very hard to explain how a passenger jet could be allowed to take off if it were not showing up as the correct flight and/or couldn’t be identified by air traffic control prior to take off.

Iran are now claiming that it is ‘scientifically impossible’ that the plane was hit by a missile. Eh?

Again, I'm just parroting what I've heard/read. My understanding is that a plane can be on radar as that isn't related to it's Friend or Foe Identification systems that military units use to distinguish planes etc. And if there was some fault with this system on the plane it could lead to an accidental launch/miss-identification as a potential hostile entity.

I don't think there is any reason for Iran to kill over 100 of it's own people, especially after a successful retaliation both domestically and internationally.

 

[Touring Mars]

Again, I'm just parroting what I've heard/read. My understanding is that a plane can be on radar as that isn't related to it's Friend or Foe Identification systems that military units use to distinguish planes etc. And if there was some fault with this system on the plane it could lead to an accidental launch/miss-identification as a potential hostile entity.

It is equally possible that there was a problem at the other end i.e. a failure to correctly identify the plane.

I don't think there is any reason for Iran to kill over 100 of it's own people, especially after a successful retaliation both domestically and internationally.

True - but you appear to be implying that whoever shot down the plane knew that it was a civilian aircraft.

I reckon it is much more likely that the plane was not identified and simply shot down on spec, probably by an automated system.

@Kano Manel The video was removed because the text on the video by-passes our swear filter.

 

[baldgye]

True - but you appear to be implying that whoever shot down the plane knew that it was a civilian aircraft.

?? I'm trying to imply the opposite that it was a civilian aircraft-mistaken as a US Aircraft (given that Iran had hours prior launched a rocket attack at a US used base).

I reckon it is much more likely that the plane was not identified and simply shot down on spec, probably by an automated system.

From what I've read the rocket used came from a mobile launcher and was controlled by an human operator.
The reason for the problem (that I've read/listened to) was a mixture of seeing it as a valid target by the poor identification system and when your military is on a high state of alert and deployed (like Iran's where), many of the physical safety systems on weapons systems are disabled to improve 'reaction' times (ie it's quicker to shoot) which the link I provided on page 1 talks about.

 

[Touring Mars]

There are only two possibilities - the plane was either identified correctly or it was not identified at all.

If it was the former, then it was taken out on purpose maliciously. If it was the latter, then it was taken out on purpose but in the mistaken belief that the plane was something other than what it actually was. I sincerely hope it was the latter case.

Obviously, the situation on that night was a major factor - Iranian forces were on high alert and were primed and ready to attack - but what beggars belief is that they would still fire upon a plane that they haven’t identified, despite having the flight path out of Tehran’s international airport directly in their line of sight.

The plane was also in the air for only 4 minutes. It is very likely that whoever shot down the plane not only didn’t identify the plane, but that they didn’t even attempt to identify it.

 

[eran0004]

I'm still not sure about this... a 737 on a normal climb from an international airport? Checking squawk codes (the individual identifying number transmitted by each plane) should be SOP for any battery, particularly near an airport. The Iranians can be quite mad but they aren't that stupid, surely?

A one-of-its-kind freak mechanical failure that just happens to be consistent with a missile strike, occurring in Tehran just hours after Iran launched a dozen ballistic missiles towards two US bases in Iraq. It’s too much to be a coincidence and together with the video evidence I find it hard to imagine any other explanation than a missile strike.

Stupidity? Perhaps, but it’s easy to make mistakes in a tense situation. It could even be due to a programming error, if the missile was launched in autonomous mode.

 

[baldgye]

A one-of-its-kind freak mechanical failure that just happens to be consistent with a missile strike, occurring in Tehran just hours after Iran launched a dozen ballistic missiles towards two US bases in Iraq. It’s too much to be a coincidence and together with the video evidence I find it hard to imagine any other explanation than a missile strike.

Clearly at this stage, it was a missile strike.



via

 

[Sanji Himura]

I don't know how those BBs work but could they be releasing them cause they are "happy" with the data on them?

By happy you mean doctored? Is that even possible to doctor the data?

 

[TenEightyOne]

Again, I'm just parroting what I've heard/read. My understanding is that a plane can be on radar as that isn't related to it's Friend or Foe Identification systems that military units use to distinguish planes etc.

As far as I know it's modern SOP for military radar to 'read' civilian transponder codes, particularly as there are set codes for set emergencies (e.g. 7700 for hijack attempts), although if the missile(s) were launched by MANPAD than the firer may not have had access to that information and may only have had their own instinct to go on. Which was very dangerous.

Here's a theory: as the news goes live that Iran have struck US bases there's jubilation in Tehran with firecrackers and mad firing of handguns/rifles into the air. This spooks the crew, already on alert for many hours, they think Tehran Is Under Attack. And shoot the next plane they see.

 

[baldgye]

Here's a theory: as the news goes live that Iran have struck US bases there's jubilation in Tehran with firecrackers and mad firing of handguns/rifles into the air. This spooks the crew, already on alert for many hours, they think Tehran Is Under Attack. And shoot the next plane they see.

The video I posted and the link I attached doesn't show much shooting and jubilation.
After Bellingcat and its affiliates where able to source that video they asked why it was even filmed, according to the source of the video it was only taken because he'd heard shooting noise prior. So if everyone was firing off weapons, I'm not sure he'd have been so ready to start filming.



Edit:
To be honest, Iran downing a commercial airliner by accident isn't the most worrying part of this incident, least imo... it's how they deal with this domestically. The missile strike at the US airbase was clearly meant to kill no-one and do no real damage, yet they still claimed within Iran that they'd killed 80 US personnel. Clearly this was designed to show to the Iranian's that the government wouldn't let the US get away with killing their great General, yet it showed the world they weren't foolish enough to jump into a straight up war with the US.
But then, how do they deal with the fact that, during this display, they downed a commercial airliner and killed over 100 Iranian civilians? Do they push the accident narrative or do they become more aggressive?

 

[TenEightyOne]

The video I posted and the link I attached doesn't show much shooting and jubilation.

I didn't say it did, I was suggesting that earlier protracted celebrations might have spooked an operator.

After Bellingcat and its affiliates where able to source that video they asked why it was even filmed, according to the source of the video it was only taken because he'd heard shooting noise prior. So if everyone was firing off weapons, I'm not sure he'd have been so ready to start filming.

It depends on if one knows the difference between celebrations and war. From some videos I've seen from that region the distinction can be very minor

 

[Touring Mars]

But then, how do they deal with the fact that, during this display, they downed a commercial airliner and killed over 100 Iranian civilians? Do they push the accident narrative or do they become more aggressive?

Have a guess...

I just witnessed a frankly shameful interview on the BBC with Professor Seyed Mohammad Marandi, who accused pretty much everyone but Iran of trying to score political points out of this ‘accident’, that the US, UK etc. calling each other ‘allies’ is war-like rhetoric, and that Iran doesn’t need to wait for investigations to conclude (or even begin) to be able to claim ‘with certainty’ that the plane wasn’t shot down. Meanwhile, the crash site is being bulldozed before invited investigators have even arrived. Ironically, Canadian, Ukrainian and even US officials have carefully and very publicly stuck to the view that IF this was a shoot-down incident, then it was in all likelihood accidental. Yet Marandi and Iranian authorities seem to view this as a concerted attempt to belittle Iran?

Frankly, he should just STFU.

Iran will not and cannot take responsibility for this. They’ve dropped a massive bollock and they know it, but officially it is yet another massive humiliation, so they have backed themselves into a corner and are now in the embarrassing position of full-on denial in the face of overwhelming evidence.

Marandi had the sheer audacity to claim that proponents of the view that the plane was shot down are just scoring political points and ‘insulting’ the victims and their families. He actually seemed totally oblivious to the fact that he was doing those exact things himself.

 

[baldgye]

Have a guess...

...right, so does this total **** up then escalate the situation? As if Iran deny it outright then it'll feed into conspiracies that it was actually the US or US allies acting in retaliation...

 

[Touring Mars]

...right, so does this total **** up then escalate the situation?

Fair question - and sadly the answer is probably yes.

Iran is acting like a child who has broken something but flat-out denies it. The incident itself is terrible, but the denial of culpability is likely to become a bone of contention in itself.

Of course, if Iran formally concludes it was an accident resulting from a mechanical failure, they will put a US company (Boeing) and a Ukrainian airline on the hook for financial compensation to the families, which will then be challenged in US and Ukrainian courts, who will find them not guilty. So the refusal of Iran to come clean will probably end up in the families of the victims getting stiffed over and above their tragic loss.

 

[baldgye]

Fair question - and sadly the answer is probably yes.

Iran is acting like a child who has broken something but flat-out denies it. The incident itself is terrible, but the denial of culpability is likely to become a bone of contention in itself.

Of course, if Iran formally concludes it was an accident resulting from a mechanical failure, they will put a US company (Boeing) and a Ukrainian airline on the hook for financial compensation to the families, which will then be challenged in US and Ukrainian courts, who will find them not guilty. So the refusal of Iran to come clean will probably end up in the families of the victims getting stiffed over and above their tragic loss.

Iran cannot come clean, because it'll undermine the power and competence of it's totalitarian government. And lets not forget there where anti-government protests in Iran very recently...

 

[Danoff]

Iran will not and cannot take responsibility for this. They’ve dropped a massive bollock and they know it, but officially it is yet another massive humiliation, so they have backed themselves into a corner and are now in the embarrassing position of full-on denial in the face of overwhelming evidence.

If only the US had the credibility today that it did just a few years ago in a situation like this. Many people, even in Iran, would never believe the spin that the US was somehow responsible for this. But given the recent tweets and general behavior of our fearless leader, it's much more believable. They have license to spin partly because our leadership is way out of line. I'm not blaming the US for the incident, but I wish we hadn't dragged our credibility through the mud.

 

[DriftShock]

Iran: We have no idea what caused this
America: The idiots in Iran blew it up, thinking that it was one of our aircraft, so we think they’re trying to start a war
Europe: I’m pretty sure they just lost an engine. If they were shot down the entire wing would be missing
In short European countries seem to have the most sensible theory. Although we don’t know until Iran have the balls to actually send America the Black Box

 

[Veinz]

Iran: We have no idea what caused this
America: The idiots in Iran blew it up, thinking that it was one of our aircraft, so we think they’re trying to start a war
Europe: I’m pretty sure they just lost an engine. If they were shot down the entire wing would be missing
In short European countries seem to have the most sensible theory. Although we don’t know until Iran have the balls to actually send America the Black Box

From the vids I seen it looked fairly obvious that it was hit by a missile.

 

[Blood Eagle]

In short European countries seem to have the most sensible theory.

Um no.