I don't think anybody in the NE will have a better chance than any other player going into the final. I few tenths in a TT is not a big deal when it comes to actually racing other people.
+1
In a real race a few tenths is nothing, you are always in striking distance. Also, in TT's the fast guys are not running those exact same fast lap every lap. Consistency is huge, so in a race you will not be pushing 10/10s, you will be more conservative in some areas where you are unsure the limit.
I think its going to come down to who can adapt to the new hardware they will be using, who will be able to be consistent, who can deal with pressure, who can handle traffic well, who can defend properly and pass well. The race is going to be a completely different competition, especially when you consider drafting, there wont be much of a gap when in a close race with someone, even if they were a few tenths faster in the TT's.
In the end of this competition, its not who is the fastest hot lapper, its who can post a competitive time, then perform well in a race. Thats what will make it to Silverstone. I can gurantee if the fastest hot lapper doesn't make it, he is going to whine that he deserves it since he is the fastest TT guy, but if he can't perform in a race then he is not what they are looking for.
The only thing we can compare here are real race qualifying results (fastest laps) with race results. Here is a list from the 2010 ALMS Mosport qualifying and race. Of course they are in real cars, and have separate real life issues that sometimes come into play, but for the most part racing is racing and you can see here how the results can change. In this case the leader was able to get away and hold the victory, look at all the rest of the positions though, it shows how a race changes so much.
Look at the qualifying results, then check the race results and look at how many changes there are in the final result. The colored numbers on the right of the race result show how their positions changed from qualifying.
Mobil 1 presents Grand Prix of Mosport
Mosport International Raceway, Bowmanville, Ontario, Canada
Saturday’s Qualifying
1. Romain Dumas (LMP), 1:06.956
2. Chris Dyson (LMP), 1:07.142
3. David Brabham (LMP), 1:07.228
4. Paul Drayson (LMP), 1:07.482
5. Tony Burgess (LMP), 1:08.117
6. Ricardo Gonzalez (LMPC), 1:11.455
7. Christian Zugel (LMPC), 1:12.013
8. Elton Julian (LMPC), 1:12.073
9. Kyle Marcelli (LMPC), 1:12.239
10. Scott Tucker (LMPC), 1:12.260
11. Jaime Melo (GT), 1:17.160
12. Joerg Bergmeister (GT), 1:17.461
13. Bill Auberlen (GT), 1:17.491
14. Jan Magnussen (GT), 1:17.668
15. Scott Sharp (GT), 1:17.726
16. Olivier Beretta (GT), 1:17.794
17. Dirk Mueller (GT), 1:17.841
18. Bryan Sellers (GT), 1:18.469
19. David Robertson (GT), 1:18.502
20. Marc Goossens (GT), 1:19.099
21. Ed Brown (GT), 1:21.771
22. Darren Law (GT), 1:21.798
23. Scott Tucker (LMPC), 1:22.081
24. Bryce Miller (GTC), 1:22.495
25. Tim Pappas (GTC), 1:22.598
26. Shane Lewis (GTC), 1:22.911
27. Henri Richard (GTC), 1:23.211
28. Bill Sweedler (GTC), 1:23.324
29. Jon Field (LMP), No Time.
Mobil 1 presents the Grand Prix of Mosport
Mosport International Raceway, Bowmanville, Ontario, Canada
Sunday’s results
1. (1) Romain Dumas (1, LMP)
+0
2. (3) David Brabham (2, LMP)
+1
3. (5) Tony Burgess (3, LMP)
+2
4. (8) Elton Julian (1, LMPC)
+4
5. (10) Scott Tucker (2, LMPC)
+5
6. (4) Paul Drayson (4, LMP)
-2
7. (2) Chris Dyson (5, LMP)
-5
8. (7) Christian Zugel (3, LMPC)
-1
9. (21) Andy Wallace (4, LMPC)
+12
10. (6) Ricardo Gonzalez (5, LMPC)
-4
11. (11) Patrick Long (1, GT)
+0
12. (28) Toni Vilander (2, GT)
+16
13. (12) Bill Auberlen (3, GT)
-1
14. (13) Oliver Gavin (4, GT)
-1
15. (15) Johnny O`Connell (5, GT)
+0
16. (14) Scott Sharp (6, GT)
-2
17. (9) Kyle Marcelli (6, LMPC)
-8
18. (17) Bryan Sellers (7, GT)
-1
19. (20) Ed Brown (8, GT)
+1
20. (27) Seth Neiman (9, GT)
+7
21. (19) Paul Gentilozzi (10, GT)
-2
22. (24) Shane Lewis (1, GTC)
+2
23. (23) Tim Pappas (2, GTC)
+0
24. (25) Bill Sweedler (3, GTC)
-1
25. (22) Bryce Miller (4, GTC)
-3
26. (16) Joey Hand (11, GT)
-10
27. (18) David Murry (12, GT)
-9
28. (26) Jon Field (6, LMP)
-2
29. (29) Henri Richard (5, GTC)
+0