2014 NASCAR Thread

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Dale Earnhardt, Jr.

You know Bman, I've been thinking about something today related to Jeff Gordon's legacy. There's really only one way to compare drivers today to drivers of yesteryears, and that's by ignoring the Chase. We all know that, and yet I just realized something: Jeff outranks Dale Earnhardt Sr in every category now. He'll undoubtedly score the most points for the entire 2014 season, thus making him a 'spiritual' 7-Time Champion. Boom, record. And then Richard Petty's insanely high records are skewed because of how many races he actually ran and the difference in cars. Boom, unfair advantage. So while the ignorant might put up a fight, there is virtually no doubt remaining that Jeff is the Best Driver Ever. Again, we all knew that already, but it feels good knowing that it's not just passion that makes you say that. It's the truth.
 
Spiritual championships... no need to discuss that. We deal with facts.
Okay, but still just imagine how much winning a "Chase Championship" will add to his legacy beyond what he's already done. Jeff's kind of like the Ayrton Senna of NASCAR: he may not have all the championships of Petty and Earnhardt, but his driving skill is undeniably the best today.
 
Okay, but still just imagine how much winning a Chase will add to his legacy beyond what he's already done. Jeff's kind of like the Ayrton Senna of NASCAR: he may not have all the records, but his driving skill is undeniably the best today.

No. And the dreaded L word...
 
Spiritual championships... no need to discuss that. We deal with facts.

It's no lie though and it's hard to ignore the FACT that he would have won the championship by 353 points over his teammate in 2007. As with 2004 when he recorded the most points over the entire season, but lost the championship because of the chase.
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You know Bman, I've been thinking about something today related to Jeff Gordon's legacy. There's really only one way to compare drivers today to drivers of yesteryears, and that's by ignoring the Chase.

So, you're looking at race wins, right? Gordon has more race wins than Dale, Bobby, Cale, and Darrell. But, he still has less than Pearson and Petty.

He'll undoubtedly score the most points for the entire 2014 season, thus making him a 'spiritual' 7-Time Champion. Boom, record.

You can't count total points in a year where teams knew, before the season ever started, that simply having the most total points in 36 races DID NOT make you the champion, even off in Never-Never-Land or Imagination Station. Chad Knaus and the 48 team adjusted their strategy for testing, putting the most emphasis on the final ten races, because those were the only ones that really counted. Would-be championships are hollow and meaningless, and have zero basis in a realistic discussion of driver talent across eras. You can't possibly know how teams would have strategized and performed had they known the points would not reset with 10 races remaining. Maybe they would have tested at different tracks. Maybe they wouldn't have run experimental parts or setups once they felt they were locked in the top ten in points. Maybe/would-have/should-have/could-have does not guarantee a championship in a different format in retrospect.

We all know that, and yet I just realized something: Jeff outranks Dale Earnhardt Sr in every category now.

That's not true. Dale led 25,684 laps, where Jeff has led 24,126. Jeff has also completed more laps, 215,176, to Dale's 202,888. So, Dale led 12.66% of every lap he had completed. Jeff has led 11.21% of every lap he has completed. I expect that number to continue to decline as Jeff completes his career.

And then Richard Petty's insanely high records are skewed because of how many races he actually ran and the difference in cars. Boom, unfair advantage.

Ok, so let's look at stats where raw totals don't matter. How about win rate and career average finishing position? Over time, no matter how many races you start, your rates can be compared somewhat evenly.

Per Jayski:
Overall all-time winning percentage: [drivers with over 100 starts]:
1. Herb Thomas -- 21.053% (48 wins, 228 starts)
2. Tim Flock -- 20.856% (39/187)
3. David Pearson -- 18.293% (105/574)
4. Richard Petty -- 16.892% (200/1184)
5. Fred Lorenzen -- 16.456% (26/158)
6. Fireball Roberts -- 16.019% (33/206)
7. Junior Johnson -- 15.974% (50/313)
8. Jimmie Johnson -- 14.967% (69/461)
9. Cale Yarborough -- 14.821% (83/560)
10. Ned Jarrett -- 14.205% (50/352)
11. Dick Hutcherson -- 13.592% (14/103)
12. Jeff Gordon -- 12.117% (91/751)
18. Dale Earnhardt -- 11.243% (76/676)

I would probably trim that list to guys with 300+ starts, as that would be around 9-10 full seasons for most eras. That list would look like this:

Overall all-time winning percentage: [drivers with over 300 starts]:
1. David Pearson -- 18.293% (105/574)
2. Richard Petty -- 16.892% (200/1184)
3. Junior Johnson -- 15.974% (50/313)
4. Jimmie Johnson -- 14.967% (69/461)
5. Cale Yarborough -- 14.821% (83/560)
6. Ned Jarrett -- 14.205% (50/352)
7. Jeff Gordon -- 12.117% (91/751)
??. Dale Earnhardt -- 11.243% (76/676)

Jeff Gordon doesn't even have the best win rate in his own generation, as Jimmie Johnson has won nearly 3% more often, just in fewer starts. Johnson is only 22 wins behind Gordon. It's not crazy to think that Jimmie will pass Jeff within 5-7 years of Jeff's retirement. Plus, he already has more actual non-imaginary championships.

But, neither of those guys can compare to David Pearson. Pearson won the race once in every 5-6 starts for his entire career. In today's 36-race Cup season, that would be like winning an average of 6.58 races per year, every single year, for 16 full seasons.


Ok, so how about career average finishing position?

For those with 300+ starts, the list looks like this:

1 Lee Petty 7.602 (427 starts)
2 Ned Jarrett 9.176 (353)
3 David Pearson 11.033 (574)
4 Dale Earnhardt 11.061 (676)
5 Richard Petty 11.267 (1,185)
6 Buck Baker 11.374 (636)
7 Bobby Allison 11.496 (718)
8 Jimmie Johnson 11.75 (461)
9 Jeff Gordon 12.453 (751)
10 Jim Paschal 12.532 (421)
11 Cale Yarborough 12.652 (563)
12 Bobby Isaac 12.854 (308)
13 Tony Stewart 13.072 (544)


Once again, Jeff is behind Jimmie, who is behind most of the all-time greats.


So while the ignorant might put up a fight, there is virtually no doubt remaining that Jeff is the Best Driver Ever. Again, we all knew that already, but it feels good knowing that it's not just passion that makes you say that. It's the truth.

Your opinion is not a fact, so it can't be the truth.
 
It's no lie though and it's hard to ignore the FACT that he would have won the championship by 353 points over his teammate in 2007. As with 2004 when he recorded the most points over the entire season, but lost the championship because of the chase.
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Apart from how you have just been statistically dissected into how your statement is totally false by @MustangRyan , using a what-if scenario is totally ludicrous. I could go through an entire season and do a what if on every race on "if this yellow didn't come out them", "if Driver X was 1 foot further to the left of Driver Y and didn't get wrecked"....
 
I will say this, Some of Jimmie stats are only better because Jeff was in a slight decline 2008 - 2010 and the #48 team is simply the better team. But from a driver stand point Jeff is simply more talented.
 
I will say this, Some of Jimmie stats are only better because Jeff was in a slight decline 2008 - 2010 and the #48 team is simply the better team.
Jeff's stats were better in the mid-to-late 90's because he had a better crew chief (Evernham) and team than everyone else. Are we going to hold that against him?
 
Jeff's stats were better in the mid-to-late 90's because he had a better crew chief (Evernham) and team than everyone else. Are we going to hold that against him?

No, I'm just pointing that out as a fact for today's time.

I've heard this before. And it's just crap. There's no reason for a team to do anything but their best week in and week out. If they choose a different strategy, then there's no reason to suggest they wouldn't have always used that strategy. Why can Jeff do well year-round and Jimmie can't? Chad refuses to do well? It doesn't make sense. It's an excuse. The points are still set up in a way to reward winning and doing well. Not doing well simply suggests that a team isn't very good. There's no reward in NASCAR for performing poorly, and any team that does so is just not very good. Experimenting? For what? The summer races rarely match the Chase races. Jimmie just isn't that good. And still mustang you can't forget about Jeff's slight decline when the 24 wasn't doing as well.
 
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No, I'm just pointing that out as a fact for today's time.

I've heard this before. And it's just crap. There's no reason for a team to do anything but their best week in and week out. If they choose a different strategy, then there's no reason to suggest they wouldn't have always used that strategy. Why can Jeff do well year-round and Jimmie can't? Chad refuses to do well? It doesn't make sense. It's an excuse. The points are still set up in a way to reward winning and doing well. Not doing well simply suggests that a team isn't very good. There's no reward in NASCAR for performing poorly, and any team that does so is just not very good. Experimenting? For what? The summer races rarely match the Chase races. Jimmie just isn't that good. And still mustang you can't forget about Jeff's slight decline when the 24 wasn't doing as well.
You're delusional. If Jeff is so much better in the first 26 races, why doesn't his absolute iron-fisted dominance carry over to the final 10 races? Why even make him go through the motions in the final 10 races? Just give it to him!

Now, back to reality...

The number of allowed tests per team are limited. You can't test at every track.

If my goal is to win the Chase, I would much rather test at Chicagoland than at Darlington. I would much rather test at Homestead than at Indy. And, for those races where they run two races, and the second falls in the Chase (New Hampshire, Kansas, Phoenix, Dover, Texas, Martinsville, Talladega, Charlotte), I can definitely see a team running an experimental shock package or different brake package in the spring race, trying to find that little something extra for when you return in the fall. Some of those parts might break, or just might not be as fast as what they brought last year.

If you aren't constantly testing, researching, and evolving, you're going to fall behind the other teams that are. What better place to test experimental parts than at the same track where the championship will be decided later that year? You can bet that non-Chase teams are going to start throwing new parts/setups/engines out on the track to test them with an eye on improving for next season.

Experiments aren't just limited to parts either. Maybe in the first Martinsville race, you take two tires on a late pit stop, just to see if it's something you might want to try later that year in the same situation to gain track position. In some races, that probably backfires. It's way better for that to backfire early in the year, rather than later.

The smarter teams are looking for every single advantage, and they are going to exploit them when they find them.
 
Jimmie Johnson has won over 60 races since he started in Cup. In 12 years.
Jeff should be around 25-30 since Jimmie started in Cup.
You were arguing?
Heck, in 22 years Jeff has won 90. Jimmie is on pace now to beat that 4 years earlier than Jeff.
 
To be completely honest here in this discussion...

Ray Evernham was the mastermind behind Jeff's success. Not to say Jeff doesn't have the talent to do what he's done, but take away the genius crew chief and, well, we all saw what happened to that team. If Ray had stayed on for the entire time, it's very possible that history would have been different, but that's not what happened and Jeff went through crew chiefs that weren't nearly as good, so the obvious dropoff happened.

If Chad Knaus were to leave Jimmie, that 48 team would fall into the same decline that the 24 team went through. Knaus was an understudy of sorts to Evernham.
 
I'll be going to all 3 races at Chicagoland this weekend.

Possible rain tomorrow night for the truck race, but Saturday and Sunday look fine. A bit cold though.
 
Dale Earnhardt, Jr.
Seeing that it probably won't happen this year, will Junior ever win a championship, Bman?

In a recent interview Junior is mad that he is turning 40, is that a good thing or a bad thing knowing he hasn't won any rings yet?
 
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Seeing that it probably won't happen this year, will Junior ever win a championship, Bman?

In a recent interview Junior is mad that he is turning 40, is that a good thing or a bad thing knowing he hasn't won any rings yet?
No, he won't. Unless he rides off of his momentum from this year into 2015 I cannot see him having the perseverance to win a Cup title.
 
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