COVID-19/Coronavirus Information and Support Thread (see OP for useful links)

  • Thread starter baldgye
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A tiny positive in today's unfortunate news of NY's death toll rising over 700.
But Cuomo had some relatively good news: The number of daily ICU admissions and hospitalizations has dropped slightly. On Thursday, the state had 374 new ICU admissions, he said. Friday those dropped to 172 new ICU patients.

“I wouldn’t put too much stock in any one number,” he cautioned.
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twitcher
Any Dutch members able to offer more insight into this?

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Dutch mask companies are being the typical greedy ****ers and demanded ridiculous prices for their stock and production, so the government turned to China. The Chinese delivered 600000 useless masks. Filters not working properly, not fitting right. The shipment has been put on hold and those that were already shipped to hospitals have been recalled.

The government needs to continue their name and shame campaign against companies trying to make quick fortunes out of this,they already did it with a company producing tests, now they need to shame those asking ridiculous money for essential supplies.
 
So it appears that the research paper claiming that drugs used to treat malaria were effective against COVID-19 is being called into question, with potential evidence that it sidestepped the peer review process.

Elisabeth Bik, a science consultant and an expert in microbiome research, dug deeper, and found more red flags; not only is the study seemingly flawed, it appears to have been whisked through the peer review process. The paper was accepted on March 17, a day after the study ended, and published online three days later.

It often takes several months for a paper to be accepted and published online, as reviewers and editors work through the contents and suggest edits to the authors. Even allowing for the urgency surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, the paper's rapid turnaround is eyebrow-raising. Bik thought something was up when she discovered one of the co-authors listed on the paper was, in fact, the editor-in-chief of the journal it was published in.
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Interesting search trend for the terms "loss of taste" from USA:
upload_2020-3-29_1-5-21.png


I made this for several countries and it match the surge of Covid-19.

EngieDiesel
So it appears that the research paper claiming that drugs used to treat malaria were effective against COVID-19 is being called into question, with potential evidence that it sidestepped the peer review process.
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It sidesteps a lot of things, like the control test. We know that from the start. And yet, people are queuing in front of the medical center were the experiments are made as the author claimed he would test and give the treatment to whoever ask. He claimed to have made 700+ so far (with one death)
21197495.jpg
 
A new study reported by The Telegraph (paywall) suggests that the real number of infections in England is up to 100 times higher than the number of confirmed cases, mainly due to the UK's use of targeted testing followed by their decision to quit routine testing.

If true, this is bad news... albeit with a silver lining. If that is true, then not only is the lockdown too late already, but it also means that the peak will be much, much higher, but also will pass much quicker - albeit at a devastating cost in human lives. That said, it is very hard to see how this could have been avoided, short of a total, Wuhan-style lockdown in the UK starting at the end of January, which was never going to be possible.

Milouse
Interesting search trend for the terms "loss of taste" from USA:
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I've recently started listening to Miley Cyrus... should I be worried?
 
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Touring Mars
A new study reported by The Telegraph (paywall) suggests that the real number of infections in England is up to 100 times higher than the number of confirmed cases, mainly due to the UK's use of targeted testing followed by their decision to quit routine testing.

If true, this is bad news... albeit with a silver lining. If that is true, then not only is the lockdown too late already, but it also means that the peak will be much, much higher, but also will pass much quicker - albeit at a devastating cost in human lives. That said, it is very hard to see how this could have been avoided, short of a total, Wuhan-style lockdown in the UK starting at the end of January, which was never going to be possible.
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The Italian Gov recons they are not far from the peak of their containment... if that's the case then wouldn't an Italian style lockdown enacted quickly enough, maybe at the start of March (I don't know the numbers), have prevented what we're presumably going to see if the numbers really are 100x higher than reported?
While I don't think there was really any way to properly stop this outbreak killing thousands, I think more could have been done by our own government to prevent the spread. With Bojo openly boasting about shaking the hands of Coronavirus sufferers in hospital, he also helped pushed the narrative that this was just a bad case of the flu.


When this is all said and done, it’ll be interesting to see what actually could have been done. I assumed at the start of March that we’d be under full lockdown within days, yet it took weeks… it seems like the writing had been on the wall for long enough that the government could have acted quicker than it did to contain this outbreak.

Not sure where the silver lining is though, because while containment might be too late to overwhelm the NHS, isn't still needed to make sure that the country/economy doesn’t just collapse?
 
The thing that has me thinking is: It's a given that all quarantine durations will be lengthened. But even so, how does one resume normal life after all European countries have reached, what they believe will be, their peaks in infections and death tolls? We cannot just simply open all borders, shops, restaurants, public transport, and believe we can hinder the disease from spreading on a massive scale again?

That's the thing that has me wondering, and worrying. Even with all these strict measures, how are we going to resume working life, bring back the economy into running order, and stop the disease from initiating another massive wave of infections and deaths?
 
@Bram Turismo - The current measures, in the UK at least, are being implemented merely to slow the disease so that the NHS doesn't get swamped. This virus is practically impossible to stop, but the spread can be slowed down, giving health care systems time to get ready for the inevitable onslaught of patients.

Here's a letter from our PM, which he will send out to all UK households soon...

TM-bojo-letter.jpg
 
Bram Turismo
The thing that has me thinking is: It's a given that all quarantine durations will be lengthened. But even so, how does one resume normal life after all European countries have reached, what they believe will be, their peaks in infections and death tolls? We cannot just simply open all borders, shops, restaurants, public transport, and believe we can hinder the disease from spreading on a massive scale again?

That's the thing that has me wondering, and worrying. Even with all these strict measures, how are we going to resume working life, bring back the economy into running order, and stop the disease from initiating another massive wave of infections and deaths?
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Getting everyone vaccinated will go a long way towards this. (Once its developed of course)
 
baldgye
The Italian Gov recons they are not far from the peak of their containment... if that's the case then wouldn't an Italian style lockdown enacted quickly enough, maybe at the start of March (I don't know the numbers), have prevented what we're presumably going to see if the numbers really are 100x higher than reported?
While I don't think there was really any way to properly stop this outbreak killing thousands, I think more could have been done by our own government to prevent the spread. With Bojo openly boasting about shaking the hands of Coronavirus sufferers in hospital, he also helped pushed the narrative that this was just a bad case of the flu.


When this is all said and done, it’ll be interesting to see what actually could have been done. I assumed at the start of March that we’d be under full lockdown within days, yet it took weeks… it seems like the writing had been on the wall for long enough that the government could have acted quicker than it did to contain this outbreak.

Not sure where the silver lining is though, because while containment might be too late to overwhelm the NHS, isn't still needed to make sure that the country/economy doesn’t just collapse?
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The silver lining is that the actual rate of infections versus hospitalisations is a lot lower than the official numbers suggest - it also means that even with the lockdown, there could well be a peak of several million infections in this first wave, but that deaths are limited to ca. 20000 range; and hospitalisations will hopefully be just about manageable - but there will be a period of a couple of weeks where a lot of people who need care simply won't get it.

Hindsight is a great thing, but the fact is that a very harsh lockdown like that seen in Wuhan could simply have been ignored and then it becomes an impossible task for the police/armed forces to enforce; civil obedience and cooperation from the masses is required, and thus lockdown methods need to take into account the likelihood of effectiveness... unfortunately, the alternative is to have a government who allow local authorities to weld people into their properties, detain people immediately for breaking rules etc., and with no guarantee that these measures are going to provide a long-term benefit (i.e. Wuhan may be no better off than they were if and when another wave strikes, and those months of terrible pain suffered by their citizens will have been for nothing...)

Bram Turismo
The thing that has me thinking is: It's a given that all quarantine durations will be lengthened. But even so, how does one resume normal life after all European countries have reached, what they believe will be, their peaks in infections and death tolls? We cannot just simply open all borders, shops, restaurants, public transport, and believe we can hinder the disease from spreading on a massive scale again?

That's the thing that has me wondering, and worrying. Even with all these strict measures, how are we going to resume working life, bring back the economy into running order, and stop the disease from initiating another massive wave of infections and deaths?
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There will have to be big changes. The best case scenario is a 'rinse and repeat' idea that will see numerous small waves of infection (combined with new lockdowns etc.) until either a vaccine or treatment is generally available, or herd immunity kicks in (when ca. 60% of the population have had the virus already).

If it turns out that the virus has already spread much faster and farther than confirmed cases suggest (which it has, but the question is to what extent... 10x more, 100x more?...), then the up side is that herd immunity will start to kick in within a couple of months from now. Those who need to avoid infection completely (basically anyone who is ill or over 70) will need to stay shielded for some time beyond that.

That said, in the coming months we can expect to see more effective drug treatments, and the widespread availability of home testing kits, improvements in PPE distribution and progress on a vaccine (and, not to mention a build-up of immunity as more and more people recover from the virus).

While that is happening, future lockdowns will be able to be less stringent. There can (and should) also be simple measures taken to make shielding of vulnerable groups easier.... one idea would be to make the 1st hour of every day for every shop or public space open to vulnerable groups and protected workers only, plus say a full morning or two (and/or evening) available to these people. Public transport, too, could be segregated to allow vulnerable groups to travel separately. Other steps like home delivery services can also be stepped up to help minimize the economic damage caused by lockdowns.

My guess is that this 1st wave will be bad for many countries... very bad. But... we will be considerably better prepared for future waves, and eventually a combination of treatments and immunity will wipe this thing out.
 
Touring Mars
Hindsight is a great thing, but the fact is that a very harsh lockdown like that seen in Wuhan could simply have been ignored...
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Our current pretty lax lockdown has seen a huge cut in the number of people out on the roads or public places... what evidence supports the idea people would ignore a harsher lockdown?

Of course it’s easier to look back with the power of hindsight, but it was clear (to the point at which we stocked up with wine and beer) that a lockdown was coming at the start of this month. I’m unqualified and didn’t have access to the numbers the government did... they would have know before we figured it out. It wasn’t until last week that public transportation was put on limited services...
 
baldgye
Our current pretty lax lockdown has seen a huge cut in the number of people out on the roads or public places... what evidence supports the idea people would ignore a harsher lockdown?
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Common sense really.

People would likely accept a harsher lockdown now, but would not have accepted the toughest lockdown at the end of January when it could have done more harm than good. But even if they had, the question is for how long would it have remained?

People are now out of their jobs and struggling for cash, but they can at least see that the infection is now spreading and hence the lockdown is a necessary evil. Imagine the lockdown had been in force for 2 months already, though - and that infection numbers were a fair bit lower than now and had already peaked at, say, a few thousand. It would only be a matter of time until people started to ignored the lockdown and we would be back to square one.

There's no easy answers to this, hence I don't accept much of the criticism leveled at the government... there are only bad options, and there's no guarantee that the outcomes will match expectation in any case.
 
The supermarket where I work is a bit quieter since the lockdown and it means its starting to look like more of a shop now as the shelves get fuller and more stock comes in, it was pretty dead yesterday afternoon.

A few staff have been off sick lately but as far as I know its non-virus stuff, for example our manager has been off all week with a chest infection but should be back tomorrow, I feel at risk every time I make the journey into work but I feel fine. Just a little tired!

We have been given a letter to show to local authorities in case they stop us to ask if our journeys to and from work are essential, but I have seen a single police car since the lockdown.
 
Bram Turismo
The thing that has me thinking is: It's a given that all quarantine durations will be lengthened. But even so, how does one resume normal life after all European countries have reached, what they believe will be, their peaks in infections and death tolls? We cannot just simply open all borders, shops, restaurants, public transport, and believe we can hinder the disease from spreading on a massive scale again?

That's the thing that has me wondering, and worrying. Even with all these strict measures, how are we going to resume working life, bring back the economy into running order, and stop the disease from initiating another massive wave of infections and deaths?
Click to expand...

I don't think it is impossible for European countries to individually restart working life as practically as possible with borders still closed. Once each country is "up to speed" or a semblance of normality, then the borders will be lifted to unfettered leisure travel. But only once each county is already working reasonably well internally.

It's quite impractical and highly inconvenient, yes, but not impossible.
 
Touring Mars
Common sense really.

People would likely accept a harsher lockdown now, but would not have accepted the toughest lockdown at the end of January when it could have done more harm than good. But even if they had, the question is for how long would it have remained?

People are now out of their jobs and struggling for cash, but they can at least see that the infection is now spreading and hence the lockdown is a necessary evil. Imagine the lockdown had been in force for 2 months already, though - and that infection numbers were a fair bit lower than now and had already peaked at, say, a few thousand. It would only be a matter of time until people started to ignored the lockdown and we would be back to square one.

There's no easy answers to this, hence I don't accept much of the criticism leveled at the government... there are only bad options, and there's no guarantee that the outcomes will match expectation in any case.
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We have checkpoints being setup and are looking at deaths of over 20,000. If we had a Prime Minster (and government) who clearly stated how dangerous this virus is and will be and policedit, people would have accpeted it.

But instead we had a Prime Minster shaking the hands of people in hospital with a deadly virus... who now has said virus...
 
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So far, the virus has only severely affected China, some other Asian countries, Europe & North America. The other wild card in this situation is surely the spread of the virus into the less developed countries of the world? There has been an assumption that Covid-19 would not spread in "warmer climates", but is that scientifically sound? The human & economic consequences of the virus spreading widely in South America, India & Sub-Saharan Africa could be terrible as the video clips posted by Twitcher make clear.

Apropos:

https://www.foxnews.com/world/mexic...trage-claiming-poor-are-immune-to-coronavirus
 
baldgye
We have checkpoints being setup and are looking at deaths of over 20,000. If we had a Prime Minster (and government) who clearly stated how dangerous this virus is and will be and policedit, people would have accpeted it.

But instead we had a Prime Minster shaking the hands of people in hospital with a deadly virus... who now has said virus...
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Yes, but the point is that taking too harsh measures too early would have been counterproductive in the long run.

A gradual ramping up of measures is arguably the best thing to do when faced with a pandemic threat.

As for Boris Johnson, his personal behaviour has not exactly helped, yet ironically he is now sending out a pretty clear message - ignore the advice and you'll probably end up with COVID-19. He is at least leading by example... a bad example.

-

My major criticism with the UK Government's handling of the pandemic thus far is in their preparedness in terms of testing and PPE... these things should not be on back order but should already be in the hands of those who need it... getting the whole NHS kitted out with PPE in the next few weeks is not good enough - they should have it now.

Testing is a bit more complicated, but again the UK (and many other countries) are well behind the curve compared to where they would ideally like to be.
 
baldgye
Because common sense dictates that people would have ignore a policed "stay at home" order?
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Containment is a pipe dream in this situation. You actually need the virus to spread some before you start locking down. That way you can flatten the curve and not just time shift it.

The goal is to actually let the virus spread through a portion of the population, and decrease its speed so that you can handle the hospital load.

The only hope at containment was in China.
 
Regarding “turning society back on, ending the ‘lock-downs’”....

Folks, this isn’t going away any time soon. Everything that I’ve read indicates that mass production of a vaccine for Covid-19 is 18-24 months away at best. Obviously, we can’t stay completely locked down for 2 years, we will find ways to slowly start ramping things back up again - but I have a very strong feeling that we won’t be seeing people pack movie theatres or football stadiums for quite some time.

I came across a fascinating thread on Twitter by an individual named Peter Kolchinsky, who is a virologist and medical investor, where he explains some of the logistics of developing a vaccines for COVID-19. It’s quite a long thread, but very well worth reading.



Smaller communities and rural areas, I do see the possibility of life returning somewhat to normal...but places like NYC (thinking of the subway system for example), I really don’t know. Even if things go back to “normal”, I have a feeling certain industries won’t, for example tourism, or the cruise ship industry specifically. Do we honestly think kids are going to return to school before a vaccine is developed?

I really think we have entered a new paradigm here, and there’s no going back. I think much like the impacts of Hiroshima and Nagasaki have resonated through society for generations - there’s almost a subconscious feeling of “we can’t let that happen again” - the implications of this Coronavirus outbreak will be felt for generations (and in a lot of ways, that’s a good thing). There’s currently quite a wide spectrum of opinion on just how bad this pandemic is/will be. I’ve seen some people say that based on numbers coming out of NYC, this is actually not as bad as initial predictions indicated, while others saying that due to reinfection, asymptomatic carriers, and poor quality of early tests, we haven’t nearly seen the worst of this. That said, even if COVID-19 turns out to be worse than we can imagine, in the grand scheme, it’s very mild compared to what we’re truly vulnerable to, and amounts to basically a life fire drill of our collective ability to fight and stop pandemics - which we’re currently failing quite miserably.

Just like taking your shoes off to board an airplane post 9/11 became normal, I think there’s a whole host of things coming our way that will redefine “normal”. Yes, some of these changes are probably completely necessary, perhaps long overdue, given the nature of human existence on Earth. At the same time though, I think there is very dangerous opportunity for governments, or various other power structures, to gain massive degrees of control and oversight, which typically has good intentions (or is at least marketed with such), but presents opportunity for gross misuse.



Something else I thought some people here might find interesting, Dr Bob Wachter, Chairmen at UCSF Department of Medicine, has been posting daily “Covid Chronicles,” documenting daily covid related news and events at his hospital.

 
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