COVID-19/Coronavirus Information and Support Thread (see OP for useful links)

[Danoff]

For a moment assume it's true. Then what?

- Perhaps we can take it the epidemic will never assume serious proportions beyond East Asia. The Japanese have got a lot to worry about and need to look to their knitting.

Viruses mutate. Also there is a vaccine in development.

- At the end of the day, China will be lowered with respect to the rest of the world. Xi and his regime may survive, but it will take good luck.

What's that now? Honestly why do you think this? You seem to think the Chinese people have more power than they seem to have.

- The origins of this strain has not been identified. I suspect it is basically a lab accident. But whatever, China has been raped by either Heaven or man.

What?

Skimming the paper, it acknowledges a very low sample number... indeed, they only look at 8 individuals, 2 males and 6 females, of which one male is Asian and the other African American. The Asian guy was a smoker - the other guy was a non-smoker. The other six include 4 African American women and 2 White women. Not exactly compelling evidence that male Asians are uniquely susceptible to SARS-CoV-2.

Yea that's a crap sample size. Doesn't make it wrong, but they need more evidence to support their theory.

 

[Touring Mars]

Yea that's a crap sample size. Doesn't make it wrong, but they need more evidence to support their theory.

Yes - one less Asian chap and they wouldn't have a paper.

 

[Barra333]

Any reviewers who let claims like that go through with such a horribly low sample size should be slapped.

 

[FoRiZon]

Coverage in North Korea.

Expectations: Hyperbole. Propaganda that "Kim Jong Un will protect the Korean People from the Coronavirus".

Reality:

 

[Dotini]

Coverage in North Korea.

Expectations: Hyperbole. Propaganda that "Kim Jong Un will protect the Korean People from the Coronavirus".

Reality:

That was a strong video. Can you say if it is being seen by the North Korean people? How many of them have TV's or streaming phones?

If Kim Jong Un really did say he will protect the people from coronavirus, then he has put himself and his regime on the line of extinction should he fail to do that.

North Korea is small, weak, undereducated and under equipped in many ways to fight such an epidemic compared to its neighbors China and Japan, I would think. Are they more likely at risk of collapse than other nations in the world at this time?

I think they've got a total war on their hands, but one that no amount of artillery and rockets can defeat.



---------------------------------

Scientists at Imperial College London are frank about what they do not know.

 

[twitcher]

Chinese scientist starting to think the virus may have started in a bio lab.




The virus may cause infertility in males who survive the virus

https://web.archive.org/web/2020021...-might-render-certain-male-patients-infertile

 

[Danoff]

The virus may cause infertility in males who survive the virus

Maybe China can finally get rid of their ridiculous population control laws.

 

[Dotini]

Maybe China can finally get rid of their ridiculous population control laws.

That's kind of funny, in a gallows humor sort of way. Equally funny but in a different way is Dr Wang's (non-peer reviewed) worry that "damaged testicular tissues could lead to infertility in most of the male patients".

 

[Danoff]

That's kind of funny, in a gallows humor sort of way. Equally funny but in a different way is Dr Wang's (non-peer reviewed) worry that "damaged testicular tissues could lead to infertility in most of the male patients".

This is the leading theory as to why I'm infertile. Some virus I got when I was a kid.

 

[Dotini]

Chinese scientist starting to think the virus may have started in a bio lab.




The virus may cause infertility in males who survive the virus

https://web.archive.org/web/2020021...-might-render-certain-male-patients-infertile

I was with that video on the lab accident scenario. But when it mentioned the term bioweapon I think it flew too far into conspiracy theory, and ought to censured at least for that. If they were working on a virus that turned out to be their own ethnicity's worst nightmare, then I think it must have been for the purpose of creating a defense against it, a vaccine or something.

----------------------------------

I personally doubt very, very much 60% of Earth's population is going to be affected. But maybe it's marginally conceivable 60% of China's population could eventually be affected given enough additional bad luck. And if that non-peer reviewed fertility worry is correct, then that's going be a whole lot infertile people. Perhaps enough to check China's population growth for a generation?

"It could infect 60% of global population if unchecked."

Prof. Gabriel Leung
Expert on coronavirus epidemics
Chair of Public Health Medicine
Hong Kong University
Feb. 11, 2020​

“Sixty per cent of the world’s population is an awfully big number”

The overriding question is to figure out the size and shape of the iceberg.

Most experts thought that each person infected would go on to transmit the virus to about 2.5 other people. That gave an “attack rate” of 60-80%.

Even if the general fatality rate is as low as 1%, which Leung thinks is possible once milder cases are taken into account, the death toll would be massive.

Prof. Gabriel Leung is one of the world’s experts on coronavirus epidemics, played a major role in the Sars outbreak in 2002-03, and works closely with other leading scientists at Imperial College London and Oxford University.

The Guardian, Feb. 11, 2020
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-expert-opinions/

 

[Touring Mars]

Meanwhile, some passengers from the Diamond Princess docked in Yokohama are being released after testing negative for the virus.

One can't help but feel slightly dubious about the wisdom of such a move. Other countries are advising that all passengers (even those who test negative) who return to their home countries will be subject to a further period of quarantine upon return. This seems pretty sensible, given that there are serious questions about how well the quarantine procedures on board the ship worked.

Some passengers have already left the ship and been released, free to take taxis and public transport home - and yet, the BBC states that those released today 'will be contacted over a period of several days to check their health'... um, OK... while that seems like a good idea, it does also seem to suggest that they can't be sure that those leaving the ship today don't have the virus, and yet they face no quarantine presumably unless they fall ill with Covid-19... at which point it will probably be too late to avoid spreading.

I'd hope that these people have been instructed or at least advised to self-isolate for several days, but it doesn't appear to be the case.

Meanwhile, there is now over 600 infected on board and they will (eventually) be taken off and put in a hostel prior to being taken to hospital.

 

[Barra333]

I heard a report this morning that the Australian cruise ship refugees will get another 14 day quarantine on Australian soil. This article states that the Canadians will be quarantined too.

 

[Touring Mars]

I heard a report this morning that the Australian cruise ship refugees will get another 14 day quarantine on Australian soil. This article states that the Canadians will be quarantined too.

The UK will also quarantine people returning from the cruise, but those testing positive will not even get out of Japan.

It begs the question, though, why the Japanese authorities have left thousands of people on board a ship for two weeks, only to let people off once the infection has spread to over 1 in 7 people...? And yet they're not bothering to quarantine people who came off the boat today?? Seems like a hell of a gamble to me - although, that said, the Japanese authorities may have estimated that the risk posed by these people is no higher than the risk they face from elsewhere already - though the Diamond Princess is the only significant cluster of coronavirus outside of China...

 

[McLaren]

Thanks to that news, masks have sold out again here in Tokyo and tonight in Shinjuku, there was a significant increase in the amount of people wearing a mask compared to a few days ago. It would appear most people are taking precaution against that decision, in my view.

 

[Barra333]

It begs the question, though, why the Japanese authorities have left thousands of people on board a ship for two weeks, only to let people off once the infection has spread to over 1 in 7 people...?

Mostly this:

Quarantining the ship in port was the easiest option. With hindsight, it was not a very good one.

Even without the benefit of hindsight, it wasn't a great plan. I expect that the air conditioning/heating system on board would only be marginally less efficient at spreading the virus than sitting in an aircraft or daycare. The passengers should have been distributed back to their home countries to be quarantined at military bases or detention centres (woo, Australia!).

 

[Danoff]

It begs the question, though, why the Japanese authorities have left thousands of people on board a ship for two weeks, only to let people off once the infection has spread to over 1 in 7 people...?

Seems like pure optimism. If it can be proven after an extra week that nobody is infected, you can just let everyone go. It is as though the downside was not considered. That being said, I know nothing about the nature of the quarantine, so perhaps they knew upfront that someone was indeed infected, which would blow my theory out of the water.

 

[Touring Mars]

Thanks to that news, masks have sold out again here in Tokyo and tonight in Shinjuku, there was a significant increase in the amount of people wearing a mask compared to a few days ago. It would appear most people are taking precaution against that decision, in my view.

Coronavirus or not, I'm jealous of the fact that you are in Shinjuku! See if you can find this place!

I sincerely hope that Japan is not hit badly with a serious outbreak. At the very least, Japan is an incredibly considerate and friendly place, and public behaviour and hygiene is considerably better than anywhere else I've been... dog walkers even carry bottles of water to wash away dog pee. Ironically, Shinjuku was the worst place I saw in Japan (with Dotonbori in Osaka a close second) for drunks and general bad behaviour, but I think that situation improved after I left.

 

[PocketZeven]

On the bright side it seems the recovery rate is 20% and rising. Death toll at 3%

 

[McLaren]

Coronavirus or not, I'm jealous of the fact that you are in Shinjuku! See if you can find this place!

If I’m back on that side of town, I’ll look for it. Staying in Akasaka.

I sincerely hope that Japan is not hit badly with a serious outbreak. At the very least, Japan is an incredibly considerate and friendly place, and public behaviour and hygiene is considerably better than anywhere else I've been... dog walkers even carry bottles of water to wash away dog pee. Ironically, Shinjuku was the worst place I saw in Japan (with Dotonbori in Osaka a close second) for drunks and general bad behaviour, but I think that situation improved after I left.

Well Shinjuku does have Kabuki-Cho within it and it’s been sketchy after dusk so far.

Everything else you’ve said has been spot on. It’s been quite an eye opener as a “gaijin”.

 

[Touring Mars]

If I’m back on that side of town, I’ll look for it. Staying in Akasaka.

Well Shinjuku does have Kabuki-Cho within it and it’s been sketchy after dusk so far.

I stayed a few nights at the Gracery Hotel in Shinjuku (aka the Godzilla hotel)... right next to Kabukicho. It was something of an anomaly on my trip, though nearby Golden Gai was a lot of fun. I met a guy there who bought me a beer and told me the whole (rather sordid) history of Shinjuku's red light zone and made me promise to return the favour if he ever comes to Glasgow. All he wants is for me to take him to a bar and introduce him to some ladies with big boobs.

Back on topic, how long are you there for?

 

[McLaren]

I stayed a few nights at the Gracery Hotel in Shinjuku (aka the Godzilla hotel)... right next to Kabukicho. It was something of an anomaly on my trip, though nearby Golden Gai was a lot of fun. I met a guy there who bought me a beer and told me the whole (rather sordid) history of Shinjuku's red light zone and made me promise to return the favour if he ever comes to Glasgow. All he wants is for me to take him to a bar and introduce him to some ladies with big boobs.

Back on topic, how long are you there for?

My buddy wants to explore it but I’m a bit hesitant. I like Western style venues but that area seems to go from literal companionship places to “this is definitely not allowed back in the US”. I’d have to go to Roppongi for a more traditional style, apparently.

I’ve been here since the 10th, leaving on the 25th.

 

[FPV MIC]

I heard a report this morning that the Australian cruise ship refugees will get another 14 day quarantine on Australian soil.

I'm happy to report that this is true 👍, because testing on the ship doesn't seem to be very good according to one of the Aussie passengers.

"I think that's really, really necessary because we've been on the ship for 14 days, I was tested last Friday, Tehya was tested two days ago. "That's the only testing we've actually had while we've been on the ship."

https://www.9news.com.au/national/c...australians-sought-after-positive-test_190220

 

[Dotini]

Here's kind of a fun story, the Central Ukrainian countryside rises up to block a planeload of evacuees to be quarantined in their town.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-ukraine-idUSKBN20E10L

 

[Rage Racer]

Here's kind of a fun story, the Central Ukrainian countryside rises up to block a planeload of evacuees to be quarantined in their town.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-ukraine-idUSKBN20E10L

They even attacked the police and threw stones at the buses with evacuees. Disgusting.

And as the cherry on the cake, their media and even the prime minister blame Russia for these protests. Classic.

 

[Dotini]

Covid-19 now has over 1000 confirmed cases in 5 (soon to be 7) Chinese provinces. South Korea has over 200, Japan over 100. In Iran, the health minister says the virus could be present in every city in Iran. The planned program of local diagnostic testing in 5 key US cities is on hold due to lack of functioning test kits. It's probably time to concede this virus has broken containment, is a global pandemic, and mitigation is now in order.

IMO barring a miracle, the next year or two could be a rough ride. We all have our hopes and dreams, and for some of us these are not going to work out. After this virus burns out, the world will go on, but not exactly be the same place.

Edit:
In the first two weeks of February, new vehicle sales in China have dropped 92%.

 

[Touring Mars]

@Rage Racer One might have thought that if there was actually any airborne virus particles on board those buses, smashing the windows of the bus wasn't exactly the smartest thing to do...

@Dotini It remains to be seen what impacts it will have outside of China... but unfortunately there is a chance (and maybe a relatively high one) that it could be very disruptive - and even if there are mitigating steps taken or the virus is not as bad outside of Asia. We will soon find out about that latter point.

A future pandemic of one sort or other is, sadly, inevitable - esp. in today's connected world... so it was never really a question of avoidance, but a question of what we can do about one when it arrives... we may be about to find out. In some ways, though, it might serve as a wake-up call and act as a limiting factor on our future actions.

In the meantime, however, we can but try to sift through the deluge of information and misinformation and hope that those in charge of the levers of power in this world can tell the difference.

 

[Dotini]

In the meantime, however, we can but try to sift through the deluge of information and misinformation and hope that those in charge of the levers of power in this world can tell the difference.

I slightly disagree. As individuals, we can can do some modest prepping. #1 would be if you rely on some prescription medication from China.

 

[Touring Mars]

I slightly disagree. As individuals, we can can do some modest prepping. #1 would be if you rely on some prescription medication from China.

I reckon if you are dependent on medication from China, you probably won't be able to do much about that anyway.

I'm ambivalent on the whole 'prepping' thing... though it does depend on your personal circumstances.

It snowed heavily one day in 2018 and Glasgow ground to a halt. Within two hours, the only thing left in the fresh vegetable rack in my local supermarket was a box of Ferrero Rocher (I took it anyway). Prepping in Glasgow is about as much use as telling your best drinking buddy that you don't want another beer. But I do concede that it may be a bit different in more rural areas.

 

[Dennisch]

Italy has quarantined 10 towns because there have been 14 new cases in Lombardy and 2 in neighbouring Veneto.

 

[Rallywagon]

I reckon if you are dependent on medication from China, you probably won't be able to do much about that anyway.

I'm ambivalent on the whole 'prepping' thing... though it does depend on your personal circumstances.

It snowed heavily one day in 2018 and Glasgow ground to a halt. Within two hours, the only thing left in the fresh vegetable rack in my local supermarket was a box of Ferrero Rocher (I took it anyway). Prepping in Glasgow is about as much use as telling your best drinking buddy that you don't want another beer. But I do concede that it may be a bit different in more rural areas.

The idea of prepping is to already be prepared, not prepare after the fact. You should have all of the provisions you need now. Its no different anywhere in the US as it is in Glasgow. When "disasters" are announced, everyone smashes into the grocery stores and buy everything up.