DesertPenguin
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We're all gonna die!!!!!!
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COVID-19/Coronavirus Information and Support Thread (see OP for useful links)
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Dotini
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Yesterday I posted that South Korea was dealing with 200 cases. Today that number is 400. Last night a cable news (CNBC?) report alleged that this was due to a deliberate spreading of the virus by a religious coronavirus cult. But they did not substantiate that.
On most Reddit forums, posts of this nature would be deleted as conspiracy theory or worse. But here I guess it passes for humor. Even so, there is truth in the sense 'we are all going to die', since eventually all humans do*. However, even in the worst case, not all humans will die of this novel coronavirus, according to reports from the Imperial College London, etc. They say that in a worst case 2/3 of humanity will over time acquire the virus. And currently the numbers say 27% are already recovered, hopefully without ill effect such as infertility. This recovery rate is on the increase. A year or so from now vaccines will come into use. IMO, ten years from now the blip in human population on Earth will barely be noticeable.
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Has sterility been verified as a side effect yet? I have heard or read this numerous times but nothing official.
I wonder what the effects would be if this is the case. Especially in a place like China where it looks like 2/3 of the population getting infected might actually happen. It might turn into a weird place, especially if that's only men being effected.
I wonder what the effects would be if this is the case. Especially in a place like China where it looks like 2/3 of the population getting infected might actually happen. It might turn into a weird place, especially if that's only men being effected.
Dotini
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Too much is unknown to make unequivocal statement about this disease or its eventual effects. Questions of course are fair. One of the disgusting ways it spreads is supposedly through male feces. Flushing a toilet without a lid is said to send a cloud of infected particles enough to fill a room.
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After Sony, based in the fourth most-infected country on Earth, pulled out of PAX East due to SARS-CoV-2, the mayor of Boston, Marty Walsh, has criticised the company for reinforcing "harmful stereotypes" about Asians and was fueled by "harmful and misguided fears".
Just to reiterate, with nearly 150 confirmed cases and one death, Japan - where some of the Sony personnel will be coming from - is the fourth most-infected country on Earth, just behind Italy (155/3). Perhaps they're being cautious, given the long asymptomatic infectious period, and don't want to bring it with them to Boston, Mayor Walsh?
And Sony is also Asian.
Someone male is certainly spreading enough faeces for everyone.
It seems to be a video where the audio and subtitles are both Chinese, and the logos in the corners refer to Hong Kong. Other than that I have no idea what it's even supposed to be showing.
Just to reiterate, with nearly 150 confirmed cases and one death, Japan - where some of the Sony personnel will be coming from - is the fourth most-infected country on Earth, just behind Italy (155/3). Perhaps they're being cautious, given the long asymptomatic infectious period, and don't want to bring it with them to Boston, Mayor Walsh?
And Sony is also Asian.
[Citation needed]
Someone male is certainly spreading enough faeces for everyone.
It seems to be a video where the audio and subtitles are both Chinese, and the logos in the corners refer to Hong Kong. Other than that I have no idea what it's even supposed to be showing.
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These videos started to appear several days ago, and the suggestion of distress were dismissed as misguided - the explanation was that residents were "shouting encouragements" (Go Wuhan! Add Oil!) to 'boost morale'. But later videos contradict appear (very strongly) to contradict that narrative... and this video is consistent with these more recent (and very disturbing) videos that appear to show Wuhan residents screaming and crying out in desperation.
My hope is that this is, somehow, not as bad as it looks - or that the faint trickle of social media content is not a fair reflection of what is actually happening. My fear, however, is that what may well be happening is just so far out of our every day comprehension that we literally can't get our heads around it.
I hope I'm wrong, but it could well be that China simply can't stop the spread of the virus without taking drastic - very drastic - action.
My hope is that this is, somehow, not as bad as it looks - or that the faint trickle of social media content is not a fair reflection of what is actually happening. My fear, however, is that what may well be happening is just so far out of our every day comprehension that we literally can't get our heads around it.
I hope I'm wrong, but it could well be that China simply can't stop the spread of the virus without taking drastic - very drastic - action.
Dotini
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"The happiest words are, 'I told you so'".
- Gore Vidal
https://www.behance.net/gallery/64638251/Toilet-Plume-Infographic-(FREE-Poster-Download)
https://www.goodhousekeeping.com/health/a22777060/close-the-toilet-seat/
Abstract
Background
The potential risks associated with “toilet plume” aerosols produced by flush toilets is a subject of continuing study. This review examines the evidence regarding toilet plume bioaerosol generation and infectious disease transmission.
Methods
The peer-reviewed scientific literature was searched to identify articles related to aerosol production during toilet flushing, as well as epidemiologic studies examining the potential role of toilets in infectious disease outbreaks.
Results
The studies demonstrate that potentially infectious aerosols may be produced in substantial quantities during flushing. Aerosolization can continue through multiple flushes to expose subsequent toilet users. Some of the aerosols desiccate to become droplet nuclei and remain adrift in the air currents. However, no studies have yet clearly demonstrated or refuted toilet plume-related disease transmission, and the significance of the risk remains largely uncharacterized.
Conclusion
Research suggests that toilet plume could play a contributory role in the transmission of infectious diseases. Additional research in multiple areas is warranted to assess the risks posed by toilet plume, especially within health care facilities.
Keywords: Aerosol, Droplet nuclei, Airborne infection, Bioaerosol
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4692156/
http://news.cjn.cn/sywh/202002/t3551851.htm
http://www.bcc.com.tw/newsView.3953934
Translation:
Joint research conducted by the Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University and the Wuhan Coronavirus Research Institute of Chinese Academy of Sciences have found novel Coronavirus (2019-CoV) within patients' stool and swab samples that come out positive in nucleic acid test.
According to the research team, aside from transmission by air droplets and by contact that have been outlined in the definitive guide that was released, the novel Coronavirus may also transmit via the fecal-oral route.
According to the official Weibo channel posted on Shenzhen Health Bureau, the Liver Disease Research Institute of the 3rd Renmin Hospital of Shenzhen had found positive nucleic acid test results for the novel Coronavirus within fecal samples of patients that have been confirmed positive, which indicates that there is high likelihood that live virus is present within fecal matters.
Beijing News cited Professor Chang Qi-wei (張其威) of Hong Kong University's Microbiology Department, who said that although no live virus has been observed and that this is only a positive result from nucleic acid test, "the possibility for live virus is very high". As such, the novel Coronavirus may spread through fecal route, or that fecal matters containing the virus may transmit as aerosol.
Chang Qi-wei explained that the virus may further replicate within intestinal tracts, and then released [from the body] through fecal matters. The first path of transmission is when feces come in contact with certain parts of the lower garments, when contacted by hands, and individuals will be infected when their hands come in contact with their own mouth or nose.
The second path is when the infected individual flushes the toilet after defecation. Given the pressure from the water flow, it is likely that the virus may disperse into the air. If the toilet has poor ventilation and is an enclosed space, those next to the toilet may be infected through respiratory transmission.
Chiang Qi-wei indicated that the percentage of novel Coronavirus transmitted via fecal transmissions "should not exceed 50%". Most of the virus transmitted via fecal transmission are retroviruses that may result in enteritis. Most respiratory viruses are transmitted through contact with droplets; the proportion of fecal path [for the novel Coronavirus] will not be big.
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https://harvardmagazine.com/2007/03/the-sars-scare.html
(snippet)
The patient’s symptoms included fever and diarrhea. Investigators found that plumbing in the building was likely to blame for the virus’s unusual transmission pattern: drain traps in the shower floors were either dry, faulty, or missing. When residents turned on bathroom fans, this sucked air from the common waste drainpipe into their living space. Virus in droplets or aerosol from the victim’s stool entered other apartments with these ambient air currents. This demonstrated that the virus could infect people via the fecal-oral route as well as the respiratory route, and became the working hypothesis for most of the transmission that occurred in the building, Block E, where the man stayed.
But that explained only part of this unusual super-spreading event: residents of apartment buildings downwind of the building where the man stayed also became ill. That suggested that the virus might have been carried some distance by prevailing winds on the night the man visited his brother—a frightening prospect indeed. A better understanding of what made this individual hypercontagious would have to wait for identification of SARS’s causative agent.
--------------------------------
"exhaust fan sucks contaminated droplets"
https://media.springernature.com/original/springer-static/image/chp:10.1007/978-94-007-4192-8_13/MediaObjects/301181_1_En_13_Fig3_HTML.gif
https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-94-007-4192-8_13
--------------------------------------
General reference
https://www.infectioncontroltoday.c...-plumbing-role-sewage-plays-spreading-disease
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16312970
https://www.newsweek.com/coronaviru...se-feacal-transmission-scientists-say-1488204
https://in.news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-outbreak-wuhan-carries-disinfect-225410933.html
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Dotini
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What sort of action do you have in mind?
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You know what they say about when the fecal matter hits the fan...Dotini
...and don't forget to wipe your aerosols properly.
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By "drastic action" I mean total containment - people not allowed to leave their apartments for weeks on end, irrespective of how much hardship that may cause.
Let's be fair but frank and say that China faces a terrible dilemma - crack down as hard as possible in the outbreak epicentre(s) and perhaps avoid a national (or even global) catastrophe, or ease the suffering of those affected in Wuhan but leave a higher risk of failing the contain the virus. It's not an easy thing to manage by anybody's standards.
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Dotini
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Perhaps they have already instituted total containment by welding people into their apartments?
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Just under 80k infections... I wonder if anything else came from those ‘leaked’ numbers....
As of this time, the virus is active in 25 different countries.
Worldwide, there are 79,638 confirmed cases, of which 24,964 have recovered, at least 11,556 are in serious critical condition, and 2,624 people have died. There is a worldwide mortality rate of 3.29 percent, recovery rate of 31.35 percent, and a deaths/resolved stat of 9.51 percent with 34 percent of cases resolved.
Outside of China, there are 2,293 confirmed cases, of which 249 have recovered, at least 79 are in serious/critical condition, and 32 have died. Not including China, there is a mortality rate of 1.40 percent, recovery rate of 10.86 percent, and deaths resolved stat of 11.39 percent with 14 percent of cases resolved.
Out of all of the cases worldwide, 97.12 percent of them are located within mainland China.
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Worldwide, there are 79,638 confirmed cases, of which 24,964 have recovered, at least 11,556 are in serious critical condition, and 2,624 people have died. There is a worldwide mortality rate of 3.29 percent, recovery rate of 31.35 percent, and a deaths/resolved stat of 9.51 percent with 34 percent of cases resolved.
Outside of China, there are 2,293 confirmed cases, of which 249 have recovered, at least 79 are in serious/critical condition, and 32 have died. Not including China, there is a mortality rate of 1.40 percent, recovery rate of 10.86 percent, and deaths resolved stat of 11.39 percent with 14 percent of cases resolved.
Out of all of the cases worldwide, 97.12 percent of them are located within mainland China.
--------
- 70 new cases in South Korea, bringing the total to 833 with 18 recovered and 7 dead.
- 4 new cases and 4 new deaths in Iran, bringing their total to 47 cases with 12 dead.
- 1 new death in Italy, making the Italian death toll 4
- 3 cases reported in Kuwait
- 1 case reported in Afghanistan
- 1 case reported in Bahrain
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Fifth Italian dies from coronavirus in Europe's worst flare-up
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...et-slides-idUSKCN20I0S8?utm_source=reddit.com
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...et-slides-idUSKCN20I0S8?utm_source=reddit.com
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The death toll in Italy is already up to 7 - though, as has been said before, it is difficult to prove the culpability of a virus in cases where people have serious underlying health conditions already.
Meanwhile, the EU has said that border closures should only occur if they are justified by scientific evidence and must be 'proportionate'. It is unclear, however, what the EU could (or should) do in response to a national government deciding to close its borders to another Schengen member state.
Personally, I think it would be smarter and safer to allow national and even regional governments to make their own decisions as to how and when they may wish to implement restrictions on travel etc..
Meanwhile, the EU has said that border closures should only occur if they are justified by scientific evidence and must be 'proportionate'. It is unclear, however, what the EU could (or should) do in response to a national government deciding to close its borders to another Schengen member state.
Personally, I think it would be smarter and safer to allow national and even regional governments to make their own decisions as to how and when they may wish to implement restrictions on travel etc..
Austria turned a train away this morning(?) from Italy due to people having sickness symptoms on-board. I imagine if the death toll continues to rise the Italian Government would just further close down those regions. Lombardy is a boarder region and has already been placed under lock-down.
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Most major stock markets have dropped between 3-4% today alone... if and when the WHO announce that the outbreak is a global pandemic, we can expect a much larger and sustained drop in global markets. I can see the news headlines now:
BBC/NBC: Global markets slump on pandemic fears
Guardian/Washington Post: Black Tuesday as billions wiped off global stocks
Telegraph/Fox News: Where to find the best bargains on cheap stocks!
Dotini
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Although the Dow Jones is down almost 1000 points at the moment, Clorox shares are up almost 2%.
Joey D
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I own a decent amount of Ferrari stock and seeing it topple today hurts. It's still valued at nearly double what I originally paid for it though, so I guess it's not all bad. I just hope it doesn't completely fall off a cliff over the next few months. However, if I sell it I'm not sure what I'd invest the money in because I really don't want to pay taxes on that sort of income right now.
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Joey D
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Right now I'm trying to figure out what drug companies are working on CoV-19 treatments. I feel like that might be a good place to invest if the virus really becomes a worldwide issue. As far as I know, the drug they're using to treat the illness are mostly generics so there's no real investment opportunity there. If someone comes up with a vaccine though, I wouldn't mind riding that wave for a couple of months.
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