COVID-19/Coronavirus Information and Support Thread (see OP for useful links)

[eran0004]

people who lost their family members are misinformed ... ok, it's all in Swedish so maybe they are.

Explain how losing a family member means that your opinion on oxygen treatment is correct.

I'm not showing you the stats so I can boast about them, it should rise questions. Your medical system is testing 2x less people while you have 3x more confirmed cases (plus 20 - 40% asymptomatic) and you have 12x more deaths (plus doubts about Swedish statistics, but I'm sure they are all misinformed), do you think it is adequate? I know Sweden is not socialist but maybe little more humanitarianism would be nice, no?

Misinformed about what exactly? The fact that we have more cases than you (so far) does not make oxygen an effective treatment in palliative care.

Let’s see how humanitarian your measures are when you can no longer sustain a lockdown.

One would imagine that they (we) are lifting some measures because situation with the virus is under control not because of economy.

Why? Czech Republic is not independent from its own economy. I’m pretty sure it’s a balance between interests, they realise that they need to start returning to some kind of normal state because otherwise it’s not sustainable. And sure, the virus is under control, but it’s not over. You have as many new cases per day now as you did when the restrictions were imposed.

I think it's entirely possible to stop virus completely, but because there is no common approach in the EU it will never happen, unless we keep borders closed for personal travel, but some people would scream about their constitutional rights so people will keep dying.

It might be. But given that it only gives mild or no symptoms in many cases it would probably return in waves until some form of immunity is reached.

 

[Hun200kmh]

It's been interesting to follow this discussion about Sweden but if words and their use are important, numbers don't lie unless you want to cry "fake news!" every time they don't suit your narrative.

This to say that the swedish numbers are staggering. I just checked worldometer (as I do every morning) and we're very close (I'm portuguese) in the cases detected ranking but the number of deaths in Sweden is 3x that of Portugal (and daily deaths from last week are many times more that ratio). So, how can that be? Well, the numbers regarding testing may at least explain part of it. With similar population numbers Portugal has done also 3x tests than Sweden (and I think that alone might be the reason why Sweden has less known cases than us, but a lot more people dying every single day, with the gap increasing lately).

And for that lack of consistent testing really I find no explanation. Cant be money or human resources, last I heard Sweden was waaay better off than Portugal in this respect. So it must be a policy.

And I can understand a policy, supposedly backed by science, of trying to tame the virus through "herd immunity" with the view that lockdowns don't prevent deaths and in the end could even prove to be deadlier (because society would become poorer, herd immunity wouldn't be achieved, etc).

But I can't understand, especially from a scientific point of view, a policy that results in so little testing being done. It just doesn't make sense to keep yourself in the dark on what is actually happening with your own people.

My two cents. Stay safe everyone.

 

[novcze]

Misinformed about what exactly?

misinformed doubts about how Sweden makes statistics ... but ok, I can't prove anything and all that smoke is from misinformed people or people with other motives.

Czech Republic is not independent from its own economy. I’m pretty sure it’s a balance between interests, they realise that they need to start returning to some kind of normal state because otherwise it’s not sustainable.

And sure, the virus is under control, but it’s not over. You have as many new cases per day now as you did when the restrictions were imposed.

Main goal of all measures is to flatten the curve and thus not overwhelm medical system, which we did and we can move on.

New cases per day are low as you can see here https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104327/czechia-coronavirus-covid-19-new-cases/
(you should note that number of tests per day increased 5x - 10x.)

and with the start of country wide Smart Quarantine we should be able to replace "across-the-board" measures with proven strategy of "test-track-isolate" and keep the curve flat until maybe vaccine is available.

But I can't understand, especially from a scientific point of view, a policy that results in so little testing being done. It just doesn't make sense to keep yourself in the dark on what is actually happening with your own people.

Exactly. Massive testing capacity is like cornerstone of all measures.

 

[Dotini]

Massive testing capacity is like cornerstone of all measures.

In the US, with 1.3 million known cases, 77,000 dead, and infection spreading in the hinterlands, we are just beginning to realize the scale of this problem.

I'd like to believe massive testing is a cornerstone of something, somewhere. IMHO, in the US, testing is a tumbled ruin. In the beginning, the CDC was ******re it had testing down to a science. But now there are horrifying indications that, yes, most of the tests cranked out by an ever-spawning horde of non-standardized commercial labs, universities and institutes of all descriptions have turned out to be unavailable, unreliable and even misleading. This situation is ongoing and not fixed, IMO.

In some countries this pandemic seems under control. Being homogenous, rich, highly organized and disciplined probably has conferred advantages to several countries I can think of. It does not apply to the US. The president is in conflict with half the governors. The governors are in conflict with half the people. Many sheriffs do their own thing. Disobedience and protest mount. The economic effects and political reality are having a worsening effect on the health effects. Peoples' patience, nerves and ability to cope are being tested as never before.

25 million people have become unemployed since December, a loss of 22 million in April alone.

A record 103,415,000 Americans, roughly one-third of the population, were counted as "not in the labor force" in April, a gain of 6,570,000 in just one month

Only 133,403,000 Americans were employed in April -- 22,369,000 fewer than in March -- and a steep falloff from the record 158,803,000 counted as employed in December 2019.

https://www.cnsnews.com/article/nat...or-force-participation-rate-sinks-47-year-low

 

[TexRex]

In the US, with 1.3 million known cases, 77,000 dead, and infection spreading in the hinterlands, we are just beginning to realize the scale of this problem.

I'd like to believe massive testing is a cornerstone of something, somewhere. IMHO, in the US, testing is a tumbled ruin. In the beginning, the CDC was ******re it had testing down to a science. But now there are horrifying indications that, yes, most of the tests cranked out by an ever-spawning horde of non-standardized commercial labs, universities and institutes of all descriptions have turned out to be unavailable, unreliable and even misleading. This situation is ongoing and not fixed, IMO.

In some countries this pandemic seems under control. Being homogenous, rich, highly organized and disciplined probably has conferred advantages to several countries I can think of. It does not apply to the US. The president is in conflict with half the governors. The governors are in conflict with half the people. Many sheriffs do their own thing. Disobedience and protest mount. The economic effects and political reality are having a worsening effect on the health effects. Peoples' patience, nerves and ability to cope are being tested as never before.

25 million people have become unemployed since December, a loss of 22 million in April alone.


https://www.cnsnews.com/article/nat...or-force-participation-rate-sinks-47-year-low

Classic Dotinian sensationalism. All bluster and no substance.

 

[Dave A]

I am really hating the press right now, I keep reeading sensationalist stories missaplying figures or putting obvious slants on a number and it's not healthy at a time we shouldn't be looking for a quick blame game solution.

With hindsight I think a lot of countries could have done better, but you don't get that luxury in these situations.

Over here in the UK we've had journalists criticising the counting of single surgical gloves as one item of PPE on national TV yet that is how it's always been done. There was another article I read saying we went into lockdown too soon and comparing the UK to Sweden, who have 64 people per square mile compared to 727 people per square mile in the UK.

People are jumping on bandwagons left right and centre and it's really not helping.

On the US unemployment figures, every country is going to feel long term economic effects from this, but the current unemployment level in Australia is around 20%, it's just under 15% for the US I believe.

The rate in the UK isn't really comparable, it was 7.8% in March, but I expect this to rise dramatically once the 80% furlough payment scheme ends. I can see a situation where a lot of currently furloughed employees over here don't have a job anymore once that happens.

 

[eran0004]

misinformed doubts about how Sweden makes statistics ... but ok, I can't prove anything and all that smoke is from misinformed people or people with other motives.

Why believe a claim that can’t be substantiated?

Main goal of all measures is to flatten the curve and thus not overwhelm medical system, which we did and we can move on.

Same here.

New cases per day are low as you can see here https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104327/czechia-coronavirus-covid-19-new-cases/
(you should note that number of tests per day increased 5x - 10x.)

and with the start of country wide Smart Quarantine we should be able to replace "across-the-board" measures with proven strategy of "test-track-isolate" and keep the curve flat until maybe vaccine is available.

Sounds good.

On a slightly different topic, here’s an interesting paper suggesting that herd immunity may be achieved when around 40-45% of the population have been infected. It’s a mathematical analysis that relies on the assumption that those who have had the disease develop immunity. The analysis applies a model where those who are the most active in society (with the most social connections) account for a greater proportion of the herd immunity, since they have the greatest probability to be infected. It’s different from vaccination based herd immunity, where immunity is assumed to be randomly distributed in a population. Vaccination based herd immunity require 60% of the population to be immune.

https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.03085

 

[TexRex]

Why believe a claim that can’t be substantiated?

Because it supports one's preferred narrative. Obvs.

There's a fine, often indistinguishable line between being "woke" and being played like a delusional fiddle.

 

[Touring Mars]

Classic Dotinian sensationalism. All bluster and no substance.

A tad unfair, I don't think @Dotini was wide of the mark in that post, to be honest.

The US response could have and should have been so much better - and unlike other countries that are also struggling (or are about to), the US had/has the resources and capabilities to avoid the worst outcome. Of course, the US has acted and what it has done has been significant and effective, but like the UK it has made regrettable and mostly avoidable mistakes. More significantly, any good work that has been done thus far can easily be undone.

The biggest problem in the US is Donald J. Trump. He's an idiot. A dangerous, scientifically illiterate populist who relies on his own (usually awful) judgement above everything else.

The irony is that Trump continues to ride a populist wave of anti-government sentiment, while paradoxically also being the head of the government. He's now showing exactly why bad government is bad, yet sadly he is also making the case against government in general. What every country needs right now, amongst other things, is good government - and Trump is not capable of it.

Trump has predicted the US could reach 100,000 deaths from COVID-19. Wow. My question is how can the US possibly avoid hitting 100,000 deaths... it is likely to go well beyond that, even if the lockdown were extended for weeks and observed religiously... which it will not be. And that will just be the first, potentially of many, waves.

Making statements like this doesn't simply suggest that Trump is a dolt... they remove any doubt.

 

[TexRex]

A tad unfair, I don't think @Dotini was wide of the mark in that post, to be honest.

I can appreciate that, but it's possible to be on the mark and still swing for the fences with contrived rhetoric and thesaurus words. The propensity for the latter is what I refer to as sensationalism.

 

[strela]

There's a fine, often indistinguishable line between being "woke" and being played like a delusional fiddle.

There's is also a fine, often indistinguishable line between believing one source only and denial of reality.

 

[PzR Slim]

Great demonstration of how easy a virus can pass from person to person.

 

[McLaren]

There was another article I read saying we went into lockdown too soon and comparing the UK to Sweden, who have 64 people per square mile compared to 727 people per square mile in the UK.

Been happening here a lot as well. "If it worked for them, it'll work for us".

Beyond the fact that Sweden's culture is different & they (from what I read) are already accustomed to social distancing practices, I believe the worldometer site says Sweden has 8,200 closed cases of Covid resulting in 61% recovery/discharged & 41% deaths. I guess there's more to the numbers but at a glance, that doesn't seem all that inspiring to say, "We should do what they did".

 

[CodeRedR51]

So.........any news on a vaccine? Been stupidly quiet on that front.

 

[FPV MIC]

I am really hating the press right now, I keep reeading sensationalist stories missaplying figures or putting obvious slants on a number and it's not healthy at a time we shouldn't be looking for a quick blame game solution.

With hindsight I think a lot of countries could have done better, but you don't get that luxury in these situations.

Over here in the UK we've had journalists criticising the counting of single surgical gloves as one item of PPE on national TV yet that is how it's always been done. There was another article I read saying we went into lockdown too soon and comparing the UK to Sweden, who have 64 people per square mile compared to 727 people per square mile in the UK.

People are jumping on bandwagons left right and centre and it's really not helping.

On the US unemployment figures, every country is going to feel long term economic effects from this, but the current unemployment level in Australia is around 20%, it's just under 15% for the US I believe.

The rate in the UK isn't really comparable, it was 7.8% in March, but I expect this to rise dramatically once the 80% furlough payment scheme ends. I can see a situation where a lot of currently furloughed employees over here don't have a job anymore once that happens.

I think you may have been reading one of those sensationalist stories with regards to Australia's unemployment rate . The last official rate was 5.2% at the end of March with April's figures not being released yet. This is somewhat distorted by the Jobkeeper scheme which has kept some people off the unemployment list for now though.

My personal gripe with the way Covid-19 is being reported is that the active case numbers are hardly ever mentioned, which to me is the important number, it's always the total cases.

 

[eran0004]

I guess there's more to the numbers but at a glance, that doesn't seem all that inspiring to say, "We should do what they did".

Indeed there is. The actual number of infected is most likely between 1-2 orders of magnitude greater than the confirmed number of cases, and since death typically occurs sooner than recovery, the recovery figures are trailing behind the death figures, perhaps by a week or more.

In the end we will probably see a mortality rate somewhere between 0.5 and 1%, presumably at the higher end of that range since we have failed to keep the virus out of the nursing homes. Less than 0.5% might be achievable for those who are successful in protecting their risk groups. Iceland currently sits around 0.5% mortality, which is probably a good benchmark since they have the capacity to test a big share of their population (including those who doesn’t have any symptoms).

 

[Joey D]

I'll preface this with I don't know how reliable Taiwan News or Der Spiegel is or what, if any, political affiliation they hold. But, per their reports, which supposedly have come from German Intelligence, China asked the WHO to cover up COVID-19 at first.

China asked the WHO to cover up the coronavirus outbreak: German intelligence service

While I'm not sure how true this is, I think the evidence (some of which I posted earlier in this thread) points to it being more on the side of truth than fiction.

***Potentially misleading per comments through this Reddit post that points out errors in the timeline***

 

[McLaren]

Indeed there is. The actual number of infected is most likely between 1-2 orders of magnitude greater than the confirmed number of cases, and since death typically occurs sooner than recovery, the recovery figures are trailing behind the death figures, perhaps by a week or more.

In the end we will probably see a mortality rate somewhere between 0.5 and 1%, presumably at the higher end of that range since we have failed to keep the virus out of the nursing homes. Less than 0.5% might be achievable for those who are successful in protecting their risk groups. Iceland currently sits around 0.5% mortality, which is probably a good benchmark since they have the capacity to test a big share of their population (including those who doesn’t have any symptoms).

Do you think it's wise for WHO to recommend others follow Sweden's route even though a couple people in Sweden's govt. like the foreign minister advised, "It's too early to judge our approach"? This was around a week or so back.

 

[Sander 001]

The Coronavirus Was an Emergency Until Trump Found Out Who Was Dying

"Once the disproportionate impact of the epidemic was revealed to the American political and financial elite, many began to regard the rising death toll less as a national emergency than as an inconvenience."


The lives of workers at the front lines of the pandemic—such as meatpackers, transportation workers, and grocery clerks—have been deemed so worthless that legislators want to immunize their employers from liability."

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/05/americas-racial-contract-showing/611389/

 

[Joey D]

I'll preface this with I don't know how reliable Taiwan News or Der Spiegel is or what, if any, political affiliation they hold. But, per their reports, which supposedly have come from German Intelligence, China asked the WHO to cover up COVID-19 at first.

China asked the WHO to cover up the coronavirus outbreak: German intelligence service

While I'm not sure how true this is, I think the evidence (some of which I posted earlier in this thread) points to it being more on the side of truth than fiction.

Looks like this article made it's way to Reddit and there's a chance it's misleading. It looks like the dates that are present in the article do not line up with the overall timeline of events. I still think it's entirely possible that China asked the WHO to delay saying anything, but this article probably isn't the smoking gun on that.

 

[PzR Slim]

South Korea reimposes some restrictions following spike in new cases. From BBC.

A cluster of new coronavirus cases in South Korea has forced the closure of bars and clubs across its capital city, amid fears of a second wave of infections as the country cautiously emerges from lockdown.

South Korea reported 34 new cases of Covid-19 on Sunday, the biggest daily rise in a month, bringing the total number of infections to 10,874.

The country had acted swiftly to bring its initial outbreak under control, and was widely regarded as a success story because of its aggressive containment strategy.

But on Saturday, just days after restrictions were relaxed, the mayor of Seoul ordered all bars and clubs in the city to be shut, citing fears of an “explosion of infections”.

The new spike in cases are linked to a 29-year-old man who went on a night out in Seoul's popular Itaewon district last weekend.

Now health authorities are scrambling to trace and test an estimated 1,510 people who visited the same venues as the man.

On Sunday, President Moon Jae-in said the new cluster of infections had "raised awareness that even during the stabilisation phase, similar situations can arise again anytime".

In a speech, the president said the country must not lower its guard to the virus, adding: “It’s not over until it’s over”.

 

[Touring Mars]

Where to start with today's developments:

The UK Government will officially change their general advice 'slogan' from:



...to



The Scottish government has already "rejected" the new slogan, but it's not clear what that actually means.

 

[PeterJB]

Very disappointing. I wonder if the government's trying to play catch-up with the other European nations that are lifting their restrictions already (which I think they're wrong to do so). I shudder at the thought but when this began I was under the impression it would be like this for the rest of the year. It's barely been six weeks and deaths each day are flat-lining. What do they think's gonna happen? Any intended effect of the lock-down has only just started to get going. As mild as the easing of restrictions may be they're only gonna get abused as people have been doing that already (such as my neighbours who have relatives staying with them the past two weekends). I really do wonder how many people are actually obeying the restrictions properly as the predicted decline in deaths hasn't happened yet.

 

[PzR Slim]

Where to start with today's developments:

The UK Government will officially change their general advice 'slogan' from:

View attachment 919235

...to

View attachment 919236

The Scottish government has already "rejected" the new slogan, but it's not clear what that actually means.

What happens when the traffic light/pedestrian crossing light/jumping out of an aeroplane light/etc. changes from red to green? Many people won't read the words or listen to the explanation. They will see red to green and go. Also, seems like a select few are making decisions the whole cabinet should be discussing.


And they are now saying to go back to work if you can't work from home. I can work from home but the engineer's I employ to install and service peoples fire alarms, intruder alarms and CCTV can't. However, my maintenance engineers can be in up to 10 properties a day. I need someone to tell me if it's safe for them to do that. My instinct is that its insanity to ask them to do that and it would put them and our customers at significant risk but I'm not an expert in infectious diseases. How do the government expect me to make that decision?

This really seems to me like they are trying to absolve themselves of responsibility and are effectively saying 'it's up to you, but don't blame us if you make the wrong choice.'

I think I'll just follow the advice of the Welsh and Scottish governments at the moment.

 

[Nexus]

So most of the state leaders in Australia have announced some form of plan regarding easing restrictions, with the exception of Victoria (where the state leader was going to talk about this on Monday).

Then this happened.

Congratulations you morons, we're probably going to have to stay under lockdown for even longer thanks to your selfishness.

 

[RacingGrandpa]

Do you think it's wise for WHO to recommend others follow Sweden's route even though a couple people in Sweden's govt. like the foreign minister advised, "It's too early to judge our approach"? This was around a week or so back.

I read the comments from WHO saying Sweden could be a model for how to deal with the virus going forward if no vaccine is found. A balance between lockdown and economics.
Not as a way to deal with the current state of pandemic.

 

[PzR Slim]

We humans are the real virus.

 

[Touring Mars]

Then this happened.

I wonder how many got their Free Dom...?

I fear you are right though - it's exactly these kind of people who are likely to make the situation worse.

Ironically, the best thing they could do to end the situation they are protesting about is to stay at home.

 

[Blitz24]

I wonder how many got their Free Dom...?

I fear you are right though - it's exactly these kind of people who are likely to make the situation worse.

Ironically, the best thing they could do to end the situation they are protesting about is to stay at home.

That thought didn't come to them and probably wouldn't have entered their minds due to the lack of functioning brain cells present.

 

[PeterJB]

So from Wednesday we're allowed "unlimited exercise", which naturally everyone is just gonna take as meaning the lockdown is over. One wonders whether the Government has done this so they can fund furlough pay with the enormous number of fines that will inevitably get dished out.