- 16,143
- Melbourne
- ScottPuss20
- CheetahsMeow
Maybe it is rigged. Maybe it's just random. Who knows?
Daily roulette is rigged.
- Thread starter hicker
- 380 comments
- 34,277 views
- 1
- United States
You should be able to SELL THE DUPLICATE CARS!!!!
- 10,007
- Upside-down in the final corner
- rallymorten
I feel like the Daily Workout Roulette and the part where the cars won through it can't be sold for credits has already been discussed to death in.. other threads about how Sport isn't a shining example of a balanced game, but I do want to lean into this one a bit as well.
The root of the issue presented in this thread is this: do we know for certain how the Daily Workout Roulette works? In other words, can we be sure that it is properly random - or is it just the illusion of random? And what's the process like? As far as I've kept up with it, those questions don't have an answer - yet.
Let's play along with the thought of it being "proper" random for a moment. I see two main ways the game could decide how to make up each Daily Workout (and, for that matter, the Circuit Experiences as well)
Conversely, in the second case, we only need to go to the first step of the above to find that your reward has a 0.378% chance of being the car you actually want it to be. The game's decided that's the one you're getting already, and the rest are just thrown in as filler. They don't matter in this equation.
The conclusion I'm trying to reach here is that it's important to keep in mind that, as far as I'm aware, we don't know of the intricacies of the Daily Workout. All of the above is based on the game not having any form of "rarity" multiplier that reduces the chances of expensive cars appearing in the roulette. And even then, the way the prodedure is carried out greatly affects the odds of your desired vehicle appearing, with the first option having an ever-so-slightly bigger chance of "success".
But here's the curveball, and the much more interesting question in my opinion - what if it isn't random?
Remember the Used Car Dealership in GT5? That was random, wasn't it? Well, no. The short version is that the game had two excessively long "lists" of cars that'd appear in the UCD, and you'd be starting at a random point on any one of them.
The question I have, then, is this: who's to say that some level of "scripting" doesn't apply to the Daily Workout? Can we be absolutely sure that each update doesn't bring with it a new "list" and starts you off at a random point on that?
It gets doubly interesting when we, once again, consider what *that* process could look like - has it scripted which four cars appear in the roulette and randomised the prize? Has it scripted the reward and is randomising the fillers? Has it scripted everything?
There would be a Gambler's Fallacy line here about how that would explain why some people have more luck than others, but that'd just be ironic.
The TL;DR version is this: we don't know enough about the inner workings of the Daily Workout system to make an informed decision either way. I'd very much like to get people on board with noting down as many details as they can about their Daily Workouts every day, and maybe find out if it happens to be one or the other. As far as we know, however, the hypothetical list is near-endlessly long, so it'll take some dedication. And a lot of people.
To end this wall of text, here's a little food for thought:
"We're making it less random to make it feel more random." - Steve Jobs, in response to iPod users claiming the shuffle feature wasn't "random enough", as it would often play songs from the same album or artist one after another. I take it you won't need a doctorate in rocket science to figure out how that quote is pertinent to peoples perception of the Daily Workout.
The root of the issue presented in this thread is this: do we know for certain how the Daily Workout Roulette works? In other words, can we be sure that it is properly random - or is it just the illusion of random? And what's the process like? As far as I've kept up with it, those questions don't have an answer - yet.
Let's play along with the thought of it being "proper" random for a moment. I see two main ways the game could decide how to make up each Daily Workout (and, for that matter, the Circuit Experiences as well)
- Select 4 cars from the 264 currently in the game, then select 1 of those as your prize, or
- Select 1 car from the 264 currently in the game, then select 3 at random to make up the rest
Conversely, in the second case, we only need to go to the first step of the above to find that your reward has a 0.378% chance of being the car you actually want it to be. The game's decided that's the one you're getting already, and the rest are just thrown in as filler. They don't matter in this equation.
The conclusion I'm trying to reach here is that it's important to keep in mind that, as far as I'm aware, we don't know of the intricacies of the Daily Workout. All of the above is based on the game not having any form of "rarity" multiplier that reduces the chances of expensive cars appearing in the roulette. And even then, the way the prodedure is carried out greatly affects the odds of your desired vehicle appearing, with the first option having an ever-so-slightly bigger chance of "success".
But here's the curveball, and the much more interesting question in my opinion - what if it isn't random?
Remember the Used Car Dealership in GT5? That was random, wasn't it? Well, no. The short version is that the game had two excessively long "lists" of cars that'd appear in the UCD, and you'd be starting at a random point on any one of them.
The question I have, then, is this: who's to say that some level of "scripting" doesn't apply to the Daily Workout? Can we be absolutely sure that each update doesn't bring with it a new "list" and starts you off at a random point on that?
It gets doubly interesting when we, once again, consider what *that* process could look like - has it scripted which four cars appear in the roulette and randomised the prize? Has it scripted the reward and is randomising the fillers? Has it scripted everything?
There would be a Gambler's Fallacy line here about how that would explain why some people have more luck than others, but that'd just be ironic.
The TL;DR version is this: we don't know enough about the inner workings of the Daily Workout system to make an informed decision either way. I'd very much like to get people on board with noting down as many details as they can about their Daily Workouts every day, and maybe find out if it happens to be one or the other. As far as we know, however, the hypothetical list is near-endlessly long, so it'll take some dedication. And a lot of people.
To end this wall of text, here's a little food for thought:
"We're making it less random to make it feel more random." - Steve Jobs, in response to iPod users claiming the shuffle feature wasn't "random enough", as it would often play songs from the same album or artist one after another. I take it you won't need a doctorate in rocket science to figure out how that quote is pertinent to peoples perception of the Daily Workout.
TonyJZX
(Banned)
- 3,945
- Australia
Think about your priorities in life when you're getting upset in a forum and butting heads with moderaters about your lack of good cars in your daily roluette wheel.
This is where you life it at.
Think about it. Or maybe not, I dont expect people to be able to reflect on things like that.
This is where you life it at.
Think about it. Or maybe not, I dont expect people to be able to reflect on things like that.
Is this a joke? Whats this forum purpose? Ofc i have priorities in my life but that doesnt mean i forgot all of my priorities and only focused at this forum. I have freedom to share my ideas and thoughts as long as they dont brake rules. Btw im not crying here. I already grinded for unicorn cars and only xj13 and alfa tz2 left. Daily roulette is pissing me off since it doesnt give me anything i dont own. Its annoying.
- 1,513
- Pacific NW
- ThrasherDBS
- ThrasherDBS
I wonder if PD should get rid of the roulette animation, and just display one car. That way people won't get so angry over the wheel passing over a super spendy car and onto their twentieth Renault Clio. If it's predetermined, it might be pouring salt on the wound for people to be teased "oh you could get this super rare car, oop nope, not this time".
I know GT3 did the same thing, but it was less of an issue then because the majority of the events only had one prize car, whereas literally every day, you can get a free car in GTS. If it went back to just displaying one car for you to win, I wonder if threads like this would become a thing of the past, or if people are going to be like "Ugh, the daily car they give you is always terrible, why do we have this?"
I know GT3 did the same thing, but it was less of an issue then because the majority of the events only had one prize car, whereas literally every day, you can get a free car in GTS. If it went back to just displaying one car for you to win, I wonder if threads like this would become a thing of the past, or if people are going to be like "Ugh, the daily car they give you is always terrible, why do we have this?"
- 818
- 453
- Black Forest
- GTRP_RennPanda
- R3nnPanda
The actual reason why it wasn't an issue with GT3 is that you were able to alter the results, allowing you to win the car you wanted. Many races also had similar price cars and almost none of them were cars you already bought. We now have the full range of the car list, but are only given four unique examples per "spin". We are also unable to affect the result of the Daily Roulette.
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- 3,535
- Theresa, Wisconsin
- 573
- Australia
- BlueXephos22
Why are you even complaining? You're getting free cars.
The playerbase for the 20m credit cars are so small there isn't any use crying about not getting one as a daily reward. If I were you, I'd be happy to get Gr.4 and Gr.3 cars, as they might be useful in sport mode, third party series'/events or just open lobbies.
The playerbase for the 20m credit cars are so small there isn't any use crying about not getting one as a daily reward. If I were you, I'd be happy to get Gr.4 and Gr.3 cars, as they might be useful in sport mode, third party series'/events or just open lobbies.
- 241
- Arizona
- MACHINE1121
- 2,415
- Scotland
- islaygaz
And as more cars are added, the less likely it is that an expensive car will be on the roulette wheel! Think about it, the daily prize is 4 cars from <insert no of cars here>! I’ve had lots of expensive cars on the wheel recently (W08, RB2014, Jag etc.) but have came away with n class cars. Yea it’s frustrating but hey it’s free and I’m sure some day I’ll get lucky again!!
- 3,070
- Norway
And that seems like clear evidence that you're entitled to a refund from your mathematics teacher.
SestoScudo
(Banned)
- 3,000
- Australia
- Decepticon 47
Give me the ability to sell duplicates how hard can it be.
If people complain about grinding this could at least stop some complaints.
If people complain about grinding this could at least stop some complaints.
In gt3 in the spin all cars have %25 change to get. They werent pre-determined like gt-sport.
- 4,868
- Kentucky
- barrett5
- BarrettMopar
- 3,070
- Norway
My point was that there are many things to consider when calculating probability and analyzing statistics.
For example:
How many daily workouts have the people who voted completed?
Mathematically, what are the odds of getting a specific 20m cr. car in a single daily workout roulette?
Are the people voting in that poll a true representative of the average?
Etc etc etc...
- 698
- Germany
Tbh, most of the people got their 20 million cars when they were just released. Back then the odds of winning a car were indeed bigger (infact, my friend got an XJ13 barely a week after it was added into the game). But at some point PD changed the algorithm in some way, and now i am yet to see someone who won the 10mil+ unicorn.
As for me, only cars i won that costed over 1 million are Veneno (and even that was a dupe, since i completed the Driving school with all Golds) and LaFerrari. I doubt the wheel is rigged, but i am quite sure it is biased to giving you much cheaper car.
Pd has changed the daily roulette chances. All of those yes are just after the unicorn car update release.
- 2,415
- Scotland
- islaygaz
- 2,647
It's definitely rigged to get the anger up!
And I don't play nearly as much as many people. Oh yeah zero cars won with a value above $5 million.
Edit: I have approximately 350 prize cars.
And I don't play nearly as much as many people. Oh yeah zero cars won with a value above $5 million.
Edit: I have approximately 350 prize cars.
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- 882
- Spain
I believe it is completely random, I've got shown everything in the roulette and got gifted most types of cars without distinction. You could think the 20m ones are harder to get, but they are only 4-5 out of 265-270 cars in total
And regarding my garage, about 85% or more of the cars are gifts, the rest are bought, when sometimes they give me a car that I previously bought, I sell the other one so I recover some money and the % of gifted car gets higher and higher, so yes, I think its either totally random or almost totally
Maybe the only exception was the 20 million cars when they got in the game with an update, I believe those days people got gifted many of them
And regarding my garage, about 85% or more of the cars are gifts, the rest are bought, when sometimes they give me a car that I previously bought, I sell the other one so I recover some money and the % of gifted car gets higher and higher, so yes, I think its either totally random or almost totally
Maybe the only exception was the 20 million cars when they got in the game with an update, I believe those days people got gifted many of them
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