Does anyone else feel like the star roulette tickets are rigged?

[Skinny McLean]

It's not "rigged" unless someone gains an advantage from the outcome - and I don't know who that would be in this situation.

That would be PD and its micro-transaction business.

Not rigged. Predetermined. You can test it yourself - I already told you how. You'll get the same reward from the same ticket every time.

Does it really matter if the game draws a new number from its PRNG function when you get the ticket or when the animation is played? Probably not - the sequence of numbers generated is only affected by the so-called seed number the PRNG was initialized with, so it depends on if they use the same PRNG function for multiple purposes.

 

[Famine]

That would be PD and its micro-transaction business.

Yeah, this is quite a reach. The outcome of the doesn't give an advantage to "PD and its micro-transaction business" (actually Sony, but never mind), whether it's predetermined or not.

The hobbled economy certainly helps.

Does it really matter if the game draws a new number from its PRNG function when you get the ticket or when the animation is played? Probably not - the sequence of numbers generated is only affected by the so-called seed number the PRNG was initialized with, so it depends on if they use the same PRNG function for multiple purposes.

I don't really know what you're getting at here, but the gift is embedded in the ticket whether you draw it or not.

 

[Skinny McLean]

Yeah, this is quite a reach. The outcome of the doesn't give an advantage to "PD and its micro-transaction business"

Surely the more the player wins on the roulette the less likely it is they are going to spend real money on micro-transactions.

I don't really know what you're getting at here

My point was that a pseudo-random number generator (PRNG) (which is what games and gambling machines use to generate randomness - they don't actually run a kinematic simulation of a ball tumbling around on a spinning wheel) doesn't care about the time the game generates a new number, animation running or not, you're going to get the same sequence of numbers.

 

[Famine]

Surely the more the player wins on the roulette the less likely it is they are going to spend real money on micro-transactions.

As I said, quite a reach.

It still doesn't constitute "rigging" - because there's nothing to rig. It's literally a set prize; if it weren't displaying the roulette animation at all and just came out with "YOU WON A PRIZE" [*thunk*] you wouldn't say it's a rigged prize.

"Rigging" requires a contest (anything from a game of chance to voting) which has the appearance of being fair but which is manipulated to create an specific outcome advantageous to someone. There's no contest here, no manipulation, and the outcome benefits no-one.

It's a miserable sack of crap, for sure. But it's not "rigged".

My point was that a pseudo-random number generator (PRNG) (which is what games and gambling machines use to generate randomness - they don't actually run a kinematic simulation of a ball tumbling around on a spinning wheel) doesn't care about the time the game generates a new number, animation running or not, you're going to get the same sequence of numbers.

I don't believe it generates any numbers at all aside from a seed value - as with GT Sport and the GT5 UCD, which just saw you tumbling from one value to the next on a long, preset list of values with only your start point determined. And even that wasn't randomly generated, just calculated from some combination of values linked to your GT user ID and console ID; if you wiped everything you'd start in the exact same place, while a different account on your console would start somewhere else, and your account on a different console would start somewhere else. again.

 

[boostdmarkii]

I once got the full cash prize. I forget the number of stars. But it was 30,000Cr. I've seen on Reddit some people have won 500,000Cr on the higher roulette tickets. But yes, it does seem to be in favour of giving you lower prizes, though I did also once win the original MX5.

you will get some better stuff by the end of Cafe ..the 500k shows up as multipe gold bars ive gotten that once also a, helcatt swap and stoke Up S kit for the 500k nsx.. I also got both lamborghini tickets the first one for a million i bought but the veneno for 3.5 million when its something i received as a reward is bullShi*** if you ask me having to spend credits on a reward is mind boggling to me

 

[NLxAROSA]

I don't believe it generates any numbers at all aside from a seed value - as with GT Sport and the GT5 UCD, which just saw you tumbling from one value to the next on a long, preset list of values with only your start point determined. And even that wasn't randomly generated, just calculated from some combination of values linked to your GT user ID and console ID; if you wiped everything you'd start in the exact same place, while a different account on your console would start somewhere else, and your account on a different console would start somewhere else. again.

Similar to the dealership in GT PSP. It's more procedural than actual random. Which is quite common in MMOs and other games with a lot of numbers, because it makes things predictable and easier to test. It also makes it easier for them to change the distribution of loot quality based on said values and then test that. This is not some conspiracy (though you might not agree with the distribution/weighting PD chose). In FH5 it's not that different BTW; wheelspins are pretty much the same concept. And Turn10 definitely changed the distribution over time, much harder to get rare items these days than in the beginning.

 

[m76]

As I said, quite a reach.

It still doesn't constitute "rigging" - because there's nothing to rig. It's literally a set prize; if it weren't displaying the roulette animation at all and just came out with "YOU WON A PRIZE" [*thunk*] you wouldn't say it's a rigged prize.

"Rigging" requires a contest (anything from a game of chance to voting) which has the appearance of being fair but which is manipulated to create an specific outcome advantageous to someone. There's no contest here, no manipulation, and the outcome benefits no-one.

It's a miserable sack of crap, for sure. But it's not "rigged".

You say it's not rigged then you go on to describe what rigged actually means. If it is a set prize then it is rigged, why even have the stupid annoying unskippable animation then? Just give me the 5k credits and stop wasting my time and insulting me.

 

[Live For Speed]

I just won a McLaren VGT in a 4 star ticket! And before that I won a Renault Megane RS safety car, but I tend to agree that the "spins" are more biased towards the lowest payout.

 

[Nuschel01]

If it is a set prize then it is rigged

How is that rigged? You get the prize you get.
It would be rigged if there was a 99% of you getting the worst prize, but you get prize x 100% of the time, the other 4 things on the roulette are only decoration. But that's what Famine has been explaining for over two weeks now

 

[Famine]

You say it's not rigged then you go on to describe what rigged actually means.

Thanks for the summary, I guess...

If it is a set prize then it is rigged

🤯

 

[m76]

Thanks for the summary, I guess...

🤯

You said it:

It's literally a set prize;

But it's not "rigged".

 

[dacc10]

The better way to put it, is likely that the chances of getting the lowest cash prize, are higher than anything else. It's hard to know what is part of the RNG before the ticket is predetermined. We don't know if the chance of pulling a tuning part, is considered as a whole (chance of getting a tuning part = 10%) or if each individual part has it's own chance (chance of pulling a sports exhaust = 1%). These percentages are just examples.

I wouldn't be surprised if it went something like this (examples):
-chance of cash prize - 50% (and then, like 50% of being 5k Cr., 30% 2k, 20% 10k)
-chance of car - 25%
-chance of part - 25%
In reality the disparity could be a lot worse, like 80% cash prize, 10% car, 10% part, but we simply don't know.

Adjust this to every level of ticket (1-star, 2-star, etc), as the higher level tickets have stuff that can't show up in the lower ones.

As for my opinion on the ticket system, I think that as long as it's not buyable, we can't be mad if we get bad prizes, if they are for free any way. The only real complaint I would have, is the fact that certain parts and engines are locked behind these roulettes, for some reason.

The ability to win more tickets would be welcomed.

 

[Famine]

You said it:

I also stated the definition of the word. And you read it and summarised the fact I'd defined it...

... then you restated it anyway.

 

[m76]

How is that rigged? You get the prize you get.
It would be rigged if there was a 99% of you getting the worst prize, but you get prize x 100% of the time, the other 4 things on the roulette are only decoration. But that's what Famine has been explaining for over two weeks now

99% is not rigged, it's biased, or unfair, but not rigged, as there were no rules to begin with they never disclosed how much a chance you have for getting the best prize, it might only be 0.1%.

 

[CoenRSD]

At the end of the day it's all about luck. Just like a casino slot machine.

 

[FordGTGuy]

At the end of the day it's all about luck. Just like a casino slot machine.

It's about odds, not luck and the odds suck.

 

[cjr3559]

Because of this thread I’ve decided to wait and redeem my prizes until they’re about to expire. We’ll see what I get commencing April 11th.

 

[Grimm6Jack]

Since I've seen a discussion here about what "being rigged" means, I will avoid using that word.

But one thing is for sure, the roulette is heavily biased towards the lowest prize (9 out of 10 tickets, easily) and the prize itself is set from the start.

I opened one ticked, saw that I got the lowest prize (a few coins, which didn't even had a "coin tower", which means that it is usually 2.000 credits) and pressed the PS button on my controler to close the game. Open the game again, opened the ticket, I noticed that the other 4 prizes had changed, there was a different car, a different part and a few different cash prizes but the lowest prize (the few coins pic) was still there and it ended up being that prize again. Did it again, PS button, close game, open ticket, and again, all the other 4 prizes changed but that one remained and again I got that one, 2.000 credits.

Experimented on a 5 star ticket where I got a Porsche invitation. Did the exact same as above, and yet again, the other 4 prizes changed but the Porsche invitation was there and I got that again.

I mean, if all of this is set from the start... Why the hell do we even have the stupid animation to begin with?
It's just a stupid waste of time and given that I've figured out how it works, it's an insult to my intelect.
PD makes this to seem (to us players) like it's going to be a 1 out of 5 chance and that it can be anything but it's not, it's neither.
It's actually a 9 in 10 chance you get the lowest prize of the 5 available and it's set from the start what you will get.

Just give me the prize from the get go and be done with it...

 

[austindeckerGT5]

Rigged 10000000%. 17 daily workouts, and every ticket from other things in game like the menu books. Made maybe 500k Cr and a special cam for the Z34 lol Also proof it is 100% rigged. Close the game instead of accepting the prize and it will show the same exact items and land on the cheapest Cr prize possible everytime.

 

[Famine]

But one thing is for sure, the roulette is heavily biased towards the lowest prize (9 out of 10 tickets, easily) and the prize itself is set from the start.

Close the game instead of accepting the prize and it will show the same exact items and land on the cheapest Cr prize possible everytime.

And now it seems we're all in agreement:

For reference, it's not. Nor is it weighted towards any one particular outcome.

It is in fact pre-determined - as you can see by simply rebooting the game before it's had a chance to save the outcome and redeeming the ticket again. You will always get a specific reward from a specific ticket.

I suspect it runs in the exact same way that I figured GT Sport's roulette did - a giant list of numbers you just progressively amble through - only all the gaps in the list are filled in with piss-poor credit rewards instead of rolling over to the next valid CarID on the list.

I suspect that 90% of the list is "lowest possible amount of money"

... except that - as it's not a contest, not purporting to be fair, not manipulated towards being unfair, and the outcome is not advantageous - it's not rigged.

It's just a predetermined outcome with an irrelevant animation - almost certainly slapped on because it looks like the same thing from GT2/GT3/GT Sport and reflects "gacha" culture without actually being gacha (you don't wager anything).


For reference, GT Sport probably worked like this:

To make this as simple as possible, imagine GT Sport has two cars, CarID 0001 and CarID 0002. The WOM has a list of numbers from 0001 to 0002 and moves from one to the next every time you meet the requirements.

You can easily see how that would, over time, give you exactly what you expect: half the time you get 0001 and the other half you get 0002.

Now imagine that PD planned to expand the game with one more car, so it gave the WOM a list of numbers from 0001 to 0003. Initially, 0003 isn't a valid CarID, so instead of picking 0003 it rolls over to 0001.

That would result in 66% 0001 and 33% 0002. To you that would look like the WOM is programmed to give you more 0001s than 0002s, but that's just a consequence not an intent. Then along comes an update, the car with CarID 0003 is added, and now the WOM gives you each car a third of the time; it hasn't changed at all, but the cars it produces have.

You can see how that gets dramatically larger with a larger list of CarIDs. Sticking with just the two cars but a list from 0001 to 0005 would give you the car with CarID 0001 80% of the time. Add a third car with the CarID of 0004 (not 0003) and you'd get 0001 40% of the time, 0004 40% of the time, and 0002 20% of the time.

That gives the impression that certain cars are favoured - and which ones are favoured changes with content updates - but it's just not the case. It's an emergent behaviour, not something intended.


I don't know the range of GT Sport's list, but I can say that the CarID range is at least 0201 to 3364 (because that's all the numbers I found before I stopped caring) and probably much larger. That's at least 3163 CarID numbers for at most 323 cars (the WOM cannot give you 13 of the cars: the Pace Cars and Gr3/GrB Road Cars), which means that almost one in ten CarIDs on the Daily Marathon list are invalid and will be skipped.

This is almost certainly what generates the wildly disproportionate appearance, or lack of appearance, for certain cars. It looks like the Gr.3 and Gr.4 cars are clustered around certain regions of CarID numbers, so you are far more likely to see either the first or last (depending on how WOM finds the nearest CarID, looking up or down) cars in those groupings than you are to see others in the middle. There may well be other patterns in how the CarIDs are grouped, but I haven't looked any further into it once I realised how largely pointless it would be.

What I think GT7 is doing is exactly the same, but almost all of the gaps for CarIDs in the list have "worst possible credit prize" in them (which would be 2,000cr for a 1-star and 2-star [I think], 5,000cr for a 3-star, and so on), while others have "Invitation", "Car Part", and "Slightly larger credit prize" in them.

Each time you get a ticket, you just get to advance to the next number on the list. I don't know how long the list is (probably [2^64]-1) and I don't know how it determines where you start on it. I don't know that it works like this either, but it explains everything we see and it's how GT Sport probably worked and how GT5's UCD definitely worked.

But we can say it's predetermined, the animation is superfluous, nothing you do will affect it, there's no luck or chance involved in what prize you get, and it's not "rigged".

 

[LordHernan]

For reference, it's not. Nor is it weighted towards any one particular outcome.

It is in fact pre-determined - as you can see by simply rebooting the game before it's had a chance to save the outcome and redeeming the ticket again. You will always get a specific reward from a specific ticket.

I suspect it runs in the exact same way that I figured GT Sport's roulette did - a giant list of numbers you just progressively amble through - only all the gaps in the list are filled in with piss-poor credit rewards instead of rolling over to the next valid CarID on the list.

This is the definition of rigged. Imagine going into a casino and the outcomes of the roulette wheel were pre-determined. It’s dishonest to give players the illusion of chance, hand you paltry credits, and be presented with the ability to top up those winnings through the PlayStation store.

 

[Upirlikhyi]

I just did the Tokyo Expressway championship and I've still yet to get anything more than the lowest cash amount. I understand that it's way too chance and all that but constantly randomly getting the worst option is making me raise an eyebrow right now.

I've gotten 2 cars. Some of the parts and the rest credits. My issue is the parts why cant they just be generic and be for all cars.

 

[gambleboyen]

How is that rigged? You get the prize you get.
It would be rigged if there was a 99% of you getting the worst prize, but you get prize x 100% of the time, the other 4 things on the roulette are only decoration. But that's what Famine has been explaining for over two weeks now

How is it a set prize exactly? I see people saying they've won cars and piles of gold bars. I have only won the small piles of cash (maybe one medium) and some useless parts.
For me this doesn't seem set, at least it's not set the same for everyone.

 

[Nuschel01]

How is it a set prize exactly?

As @Famine explained in this thread before there is a list of items you get and everyone starts at a different point in that list.

 

[gambleboyen]

I have to assume that some people are getting loads more roulette tickets then, or I am just stuck in a long rut of **** prizes.

 

[scarface335]

Got 1 bonus car. 1x 500000 ans 1x 100000 rest was garbage

 

[cjr3559]

Got 1 bonus car. 1x 500000 ans 1x 100000 rest was garbage

I’m not picking on you, but 600,000+ credits and a bonus car for just showing up and doing the bare minimum the game requires seems good.

And other than feeling ripped off for getting nothing for a small effort, what’s the expectation here? To get 500,000 on every ticket?

 

[Famine]

This is the definition of rigged.

No, it's not. I already posted the definition of "rigged".

Imagine going into a casino and the outcomes of the roulette wheel were pre-determined.

You mean a contest which has the appearance of being fair but which is manipulated to create an specific outcome advantageous to the casino? Yes, that would be rigged.

 

[Streeto]

As @Famine explained in this thread before there is a list of items you get and everyone starts at a different point in that list.

Yes but without being an actual game dev at PD you're not gonna know for sure how it works? I know the reward is the same if you soft reset the game, but that doesn't tell much, it just means the reward is determined before you open the ticket. The tickets themselves could be entirely random, random level, random prize.

Unless there's been a leak from inside PD on the algorithm, then I'll go eat my words.

 

[mrPetros]

My experience from roulette:

I left all tickets from cafe and daily workout to open them all together at one time, making an interesting video perhaps.

So I had like 3-4 pages of roulette tickets, 1-stars, 2-stars, 3-stars, 4-stars even 6-star

I pressed "start recording" and started opening the 1-star tickets moving my way upwards

In what was a ~11min video of opening tickets,
I always got the least possible amount (1-star 1000cr, 2-star 2000cr, etc)
and when opening (last) the 6-star ticket, I got a lousy ecu part, worth much less than the least payout I was usually getting.

I mean, you can't make this up 🤣

oh, and cant be much "random" either 🤣