Europe - The Official Thread

[Dotini]

Protests spread...'Tis the season to be jolly.

Clashes as yellow vest protests grow in Belgium, Netherlands
By LORNE COOK and MIKE CORDERtoday

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A protestor in a yellow vest stands above police during a demonstration in Brussels, Saturday, Dec. 8, 2018. Hundreds of police officers are being mobilized in Brussels Saturday, where yellow vest protesters last week clashed with police and torched two police vehicles. More than 70 people were detained. (AP Photo/Geert Vanden Wijngaert)

BRUSSELS (AP) — Belgian police fired tear gas and water cannons at yellow-vested protesters calling for the resignation of Prime Minister Charles Michel after they tried to breach a riot barricade, as the movement that started in France made its mark Saturday in Belgium and the Netherlands.

Protesters in Brussels threw paving stones, road signs, fireworks, flares and other objects at police blocking their entry to an area where Michel’s offices, other government buildings and the parliament are located.

Brussels police spokeswoman Ilse Van de Keere said that around 400 protesters were gathered in the area.


About 100 were detained, many for carrying dangerous objects like fireworks or clothing that could be used as protection in clashes with police.

The reasons for the protests are not entirely clear. Neither Belgium nor the Netherlands has proposed a hike in fuel tax — the catalyst for the massive and destructive demonstrations in France in recent weeks.

Instead, protesters appeared to hail at least in part from a populist movement that is angry at government policy in general and what it sees as the widening gulf between mainstream politicians and the voters who put them in power. Some in Belgium appeared intent only on confronting police.

https://www.apnews.com/c0afb781cc074df88e40f1a2bd61ed92

 

[PocketZeven]

Not sure what you're referring to by "authoritarian", but gas tax raises were in the Macron presidency platform during 2017 campaign. And let's face it: people would have never care that much about those taxes if the overall oil market was down in the previous month.


The problem with these broad questions, is that:
A: The result includes people who have "sympathy" for the Yellow Vest
B: Taking a side doesn't cost anything. Some people says them want more money? Oh yeah, i have sympathy for them, why not...

My problem with the Yellow Vest "thing" is that i'm hearing a lot of people saying they don't usually vote because they are "apolitical", claiming that THEY ARE the people, saying they want plenty of contradictory things right now, and when someone try to articulate an answer, pull the magic card "people doesn't understand what you're saying". And i have already reported earlier about their authoritarian behavior.

Not that Macron didn't deserved to be bitten back after showing quite some arrogance, even by french standards...


The both funny and sad part of the article is that this woman, who for a living used to chase ectoplasmes, has a particular taste for conspiracy theories, and has just set a small sub group (The Free Yellow Vests) with two figures having far-right social history - one of them having been a candidate of the last parliamentary election and ending last with 0.6% of the votes.

The problem that without leadership the extremists see it as an opportunity at hijacking this movement for their own means. And very likely these extremists are organised very well unlike the yellow vests.



https://www.apnews.com/c0afb781cc074df88e40f1a2bd61ed92[/QUOTE]

this reminds of the movement in the US that started by a "group" calles "Q". I suspect these are likely rightwing extremists that found an opportunity to act out.

 

[Dotini]

How are European markets reacting to all this protest/violence? Do they also finger highly organized right-wing extremists as the culprits? Or do they think this is more along the lines of angry, economically threatened working-class and middle-class (populists)? Do they fear an adverse economic reaction...as in asset bubbles popping? Are highly organized right-wing extremists either smart enough or stupid enough to precipitate an economic collapse sufficient to take down everyone else along with them?

edit: Is it true that the French police union has advised members to join the protests?

 

[Milouse]

edit: Is it true that the French police union has advised members to join the protests?

Police officers are excluded from the right to do a strike. But not logistical personal. The syndicate Vigi called for a strike, indeed, that could affect some of the later. But that syndicate represents 3.39% in the Police at the last syndical election.

 

[TenEightyOne]

edit: Is it true that the French police union has advised members to join the protests?

I believe APN and Vigi have advised their members to strike in solidarity with the protest. That's not the same as joining riots on the streets, of course.

EDIT: arbre'd by Milouse

EDIT 2: While French police aren't allowed to strike per se it seems that riot police may have been advised that if they're exhausted then they should rest rather than report for extended duties. That could easily be seen as being tantamount to supporting the strikes.

 

[Milouse]

Is that an insurance scam?

 

[Dennisch]

Protests spread...'Tis the season to be jolly.

The Dutch showed their massive interest in protesting by showing up in their tens of people.

 

[Johnnypenso]

The ruling coalition in Belgium is kaput as the N-VA Party withdraws support for PM Michel over the Global Migration Pact about to be signed on Sunday. The Liberals and Christian Democrats now rule with less than a majority.

https://apnews.com/18fe37e345714c6f9e97242810808e9d

 

[novcze]

The problem that without leadership the extremists see it as an opportunity at hijacking this movement for their own means. And very likely these extremists are organised very well unlike the yellow vests.

imo, the yellow vests maybe started as a protest movement against fuel tax, but was "hijacked" as a general symbol of protest against government from all sides.

 

[Dotini]

imo, the yellow vests maybe started as a protest movement against fuel tax, but was "hijacked" as a general symbol of protest against government from all sides.

Yes, and if elements of it were highly organized, you'd think it would be an easy matter for the government simply to immediately arrest the leaders. If this video is to be believed, middle-class supported by local police have taken over this toll road, and are prepared to stay in place through Christmas. They seem to want a 6th Republic, and see minor violence such as vandalism as a necessary evil.

 

[PocketZeven]

Yes, and if elements of it were highly organized, you'd think it would be an easy matter for the government simply to immediately arrest the leaders. If this video is to be believed, middle-class supported by local police have taken over this toll road, and are prepared to stay in place through Christmas. They seem to want a 6th Republic, and see minor violence such as vandalism as a necessary evil.

On the flipside without proper representation how will the french government how to compromise or negotiate? I am certain that already different factions have already risen to protest additional demands.

 

[Milouse]

Yes, and if elements of it were highly organized, you'd think it would be an easy matter for the government simply to immediately arrest the leaders.

... what? Russia is slightly more the East.

They seem to want a 6th Republic, and see minor violence such as vandalism as a necessary evil.

That, and most of the things we see at this roundabout were part of the Melenchon's France Insoumise platform at the last presidential election. They arrived fourth. They didn't get it by the vote, they try by the street.

 

[Johnnypenso]

Yes, and if elements of it were highly organized, you'd think it would be an easy matter for the government simply to immediately arrest the leaders. If this video is to be believed, middle-class supported by local police have taken over this toll road, and are prepared to stay in place through Christmas. They seem to want a 6th Republic, and see minor violence such as vandalism as a necessary evil.

That's an interesting video. You have the moderates begrudgingly thankful for the intrusion of the more radical elements because of the increased attention they receive and I'm sure there's also an element of spreading out the wrath of the central government. It's much harder to defeat the hydra than it is the dragon.

 

[novcze]

sad part about the video is like a nurse and teacher live on the edge of poverty ... but he can buy cigarettes so it's probably not that bad

 

[Dotini]

...without proper representation how will the French government...compromise or negotiate?

Great question!

It seems the protest movement is inchoately discouraging those who would seek to negotiate with the government, probably wishing to keep the pressure on Macron. The next question is, can the existing government, acting unilaterally and without a negotiating party, yield up compromises sufficient to make the protesters go home? Or will nothing less than Macron's exit and regime change satisfy the protest? Or else, how does this end? Will a national emergency, martial law and a brutal winter be factors?

 

[PocketZeven]

Great question!

It seems the protest movement is inchoately discouraging those who would seek to negotiate with the government, probably wishing to keep the pressure on Macron. The next question is, can the existing government, acting unilaterally and without a negotiating party, yield up compromises sufficient to make the protesters go home? Or will nothing less than Macron's exit and regime change satisfy the protest? Or else, how does this end? Will a national emergency, martial law and a brutal winter be factors?

The protest wasnt about Macron's exit to begin with. It was only about the fuelprices and evolved to other demands I believe. I just fear that the movement has begun to attract too many extremists, hooligans, looters and violent people overall. Apparantly a rightwingt extremist is spreading false rumors and conspiracy theories that Macrone will allow 480 million more refugees and asking for Macrons resignation?!?! It is a matter of time before the original movement's message will be lost and more violence will follow.

https://edition.cnn.com/2018/12/07/europe/who-are-gilet-jaunes-intl/index.html

edit: cleaned up post

 

[TenEightyOne]

Or will nothing less than Macron's exit and regime change satisfy the protest?

The protest wasnt about Macron's exit to begin with. It was only about the fuelprices and evolved to other demands I believe. I just fear that the movement has begun to attract too many extremists, hooligans, looters and violent people overall. Apparantly a rightwingt extremist is spreading false rumors and conspiracy theories that Macrone will allow 480 million more refugees and asking for Macrons resignation?!?!

As @PocketZeven says it wasn't originally about Macron's exit (at least not nominally). Still, if you look back at the last few years of French politics (especially rise and fall of Le Pen, Le Pen and Front National) it's clear that there are still plenty of hard-right political activists with an axe to grind against both Macron and the current government. It seems obvious (with my 20:20, or 6:6 hindsight) that they would try to hijack these protests with their own platforms.

 

[Dotini]

I will go out on a limb and predict working class people both of the right and left will work together to oust the elitist Macron, along with his wealth-gap creating policies.

 

[Johnnypenso]

I will go out on a limb and predict working class people both of the right and left will work together to oust the elitist Macron, along with his wealth-gap creating policies.

It all depends on how things unfold in the next little while. Do the protests continue unabated? If they peter out, the movement peters out with it. Often these things hinge on a seminal moment, and image or action that everyone can rally around. In this day and age when everything is catalogued and we see tragedy and devastation at our fingertips every day if we wish for it, what kind of image will it take to coalesce this movement? What can Macron do to appease the masses except give in to their demands for higher taxes on the rich, higher minimum wage and no tax increases on the working masses? How does he balance out his thirst for power and control with his adherence to the agenda that he promised the electorate? Will he give up that agenda to appease the masses and remain in power, hoping to sneak in some small scraps of his platform here and there? What effect will this have on the other EU members, if any?

IMO the most likely outcome is capitulation. He's very young and the prospect of figuratively dying on this hill at such a young age would not be appealing to him. He will let them eat cake but it may be one with very little butter and no icing.

 

[TenEightyOne]

On Monday Macron will meet with the presidents of the three two chambers and representatives of the legislature from around the country. He will address the nation later that day at 8pm.

 

[Milouse]

A poll has been made by Ipsos in order to test a Yellow Vest list presence at next spring European Election (people are asked as if the election was the day of this poll). Here the result:
LAREM (Macron) 21%
RN (Le Pen) 14%
Ecologists 13%
Yellow Vest 12%
Republicains (Right) 11%
France Insoumise (Melenchon, far left) 9%

This indicates that the Yellow Vests list would take voters to the two sides that put oil on the fire: far-right and far-left.

Anyway, it is very unlikely to see one, and only one YV list, if any. Because the split in half (moderate / extremes) or three (moderate / extreme left / extreme right) of the Yellow Vest is likely to happen until then, maybe sooner than later if Macron's speech hit the target.

Edit:

On Monday Macron will meet with the presidents of the three chambers

That's not really important, but we have only two chambers.

 

[novcze]

This indicates that the Yellow Vests list would take voters to the two sides that put oil on the fire: far-right and far-left.

Which is desirable, people are voting for far-right/left because nobody else was interested in their problems, if someone moderate will emerge to represent ordinary people, then it's better for everyone.

IMO the most likely outcome is capitulation. He's very young and the prospect of figuratively dying on this hill at such a young age would not be appealing to him.

hopefully, he can return to his bank cronies no problem ...

 

[Johnnypenso]

hopefully, he can return to his bank cronies no problem ...

Of course, it's not like he's going to fall back to the abyss, but I think his sights are much higher than that. EU Army and him as head of a more authoritarian EU would be my guess. Working in the bank shuffling papers would be great for the pocketbook but hardly the same adrenaline rush.

 

[HenrySwanson]

The Dutch showed their massive interest in protesting by showing up in their tens of people.

 

[PocketZeven]

I will go out on a limb and predict working class people both of the right and left will work together to oust the elitist Macron, along with his wealth-gap creating policies.

Unlikely. Macron might change policies, but I dont think he will resign. He is a centrist and far right and left are not a majority in france. Perhaps the most vocal, but not majority. The most important reason he eventually won presidency, was because a lot of people didnt wanted farright Le Pen. Which in my opinion would have been much worse. Recently she was stripped of her parliamentary immunity and ordered to undergo psychiatric test. She posted several graphic pictures and of a beheaded journalist, which immediately was condemned by the parents of the beheaded journalist.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/20...ed-undergo-psychiatric-tests-tweeting-images/

 

[Dotini]

Unlikely. Macron might change policies, but I dont think he will resign. He is a centrist and far right and left are not a majority in france. Perhaps the most vocal, but not majority. The most important reason he eventually won presidency, was because a lot of people didnt wanted farright Le Pen. Which in my opinion would have been much worse. Recently she was stripped of her parliamentary immunity and ordered to undergo psychiatric test. She posted several graphic pictures and of a beheaded journalist, which immediately was condemned by the parents of the beheaded journalist.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/20...ed-undergo-psychiatric-tests-tweeting-images/

Mind you, I'm not predicting they will succeed in ousting Macron, only that working class left wing will join with working class right wing in the attempt.
Also, a standing reminder that IMO the best (short term) government would be the wise, benevolent despot, i.e., an elite. Macron is a near-perfect elite. But can he dance on rotten ice and change his opinions faster than he changes his shorts?

 

[PocketZeven]

Mind you, I'm not predicting they will succeed in ousting Macron, only that working class left wing will join with working class right wing in the attempt.
Also, a standing reminder that IMO the best (short term) government would be the wise, benevolent despot, i.e., an elite. Macron is a near-perfect elite. But can he dance on rotten ice and change his opinions faster than he changes his shorts?

What is your definition of "elite" by the way? My definition is people who came from "old money" and the super rich. Personally I dont consider doctors, attorneys, civil servants, academics elite.

I think the speech he anounced to give is going to define his presidency.

 

[Dotini]

What is your definition of "elite" by the way?

Excellent question!
However wealthy an elite may be, the first prerequisites are intelligence, connections and influence. Personal charm or charisma is a factor.

 

[PocketZeven]

Excellent question!
However wealthy an elite may be, the first prerequisites are intelligence, connections and influence. Personal charm or charisma is a factor.

So would you consider Trump an elite?

 

[Dotini]

So would you consider Trump an elite?

Clearly not! He is an obnoxious New York billionaire playboy. Tact is part of intelligence and charm. Like Forrest Gump, he stood in the right place at the right time and lightning struck.