For sure it's probably finished. It's more that they are leaving before its come out. It gives me the impression that they're washing themselves of responsibility with this timing. What about post DLC content like FH4 got (Eliminator and Super 7). I'm sure that's already planned and being worked on, but it doesn't give me a good impression.
It gives me the impression that they want to give Playground time to fill the vacated roles before detailed planning on the next game starts, so there's no conflict of ideas. If the remaining content is already finished or planned out to the point where further creative input isn't needed, then there's no point in sitting there doing basically nothing until it's released, which is still some time away.
If they had waited until FH6 was a year+ into development and then lefty, I'd consider that much more concerning as that usually only happens due to internal strife of some kind. This is something that was likely planned for quite some time in advance and certainly not "oh this DLC sucks, we better cut and run". Sometimes people do leave their jobs on good terms, after all.
For sure, as they're not being "fired", this departure has been known about internally and agreed MONTHS ago, at least in terms of the high level personnel. These kind of high level structural changes don't just happen overnight.
In my opinion, its being made public now partly because they are setting up the new company and it would leak out anyway otherwise, and partly because they've now reached the point where departure is triggered which would have been agreed some time ago internally with Microsoft/Turn10. Most likely that means expansion 2 is virtually complete and any further development of FH4 has been mapped out in sufficient detail.
It does sound like the key individuals involved had got "bored" a bit, developers also tend to like to have maximum creative freedom if they can which may be a factor.
To my eyes, this scenario seems very similar to the Rocksteady one where they stayed on until an announcement was made at virtually the same time of year, last year.
Another timing point - financial year ends for American groups and their subsidiaries are 31 December and any bonuses/share options etc are often linked to that date. These amounts can be substantial for the individuals, obviously!
Also, assuming this was agreed before 31 December, there could be public disclosure requirements for stock exchange filings coming up related to 31 December 2022.
For example, if agreed before 31 December, the filed accounts might have to potentially accrue for any Restructuring Provisions.
Any and all of the above means it is a good time now to release the info themselves with their own narrative, rather than have it leak somehow and people come up with random conspiracy theories.
As you can tell from the above I'm an accountant 😂 - I thought some of this might be helpful to others to be aware of though.
Regarding the future, beyond the immediate future and expansion 2, we are probably not going to hear much from PGG for some time, until they want to (because they have good news to share) or have to (because they don't have good news) make an announcement about their next game.
Maverick however will be in the opposite situation. They will want to encourage potential investors and other parties as much as they can, which means getting the word out there and being as public as they can about their game.
Which won't be allowed to be called anything that sounds remotely like Forza or Horizon ( there will be all sorts of legal things they've signed about that!)