Knowing the above factors in profitability has created a nearly universal "most efficient grind" referenced here and everywhere that is comprised of I/E work, biker business(es), and CEO/VIP work sprinkled in between to cover the cool downs. This process has come about as folks come to realise the above hidden costs, like that opportunity cost. If you can make $75k elsewhere faster than it takes you to fill a supply bar, then of course it makes sense to simply buy supplies. So folks do, and then most 'cover' that cost by selling a I/E car for $80k net(assuming no damages, true average is probably closer to $70k for most players.) Win! Right? Well, sort of. You take the car you sold that would have on its own net you $80k, and you spend that on supplies. So you've sourced/sold a car to cover your supply costs that will mature to $210k in 2.5 hours. Sounds great, especially when you consider that in those 2.5 hours you should be able to source and sell 4-5 more cars bringing the net for that activity to $400k over that time, on top of the $210k you'll free up before the 3rd hour is finished(2.5 hours to mature, less than .5 hours to sell.)
That's $610k net in 3 hours. Sounds right near that $200k/hr I keep talking about, doesn't it? Of course, assuming you didn't get up to crack an ale or drain the last one and sprinkled a few VIP tasks in there, you might get another $60k in that time, bringing your 3hr total to ~ $670k. Again, this is an absolute best case scenario where you spent exactly $ZERO on pegasus, ammunition, deaths, insurance/repairs, and assumes you made the full $80k on each I/E etc. In practice that 3hr total of $670k likely becomes closer to $620k($70k x 5 cars + $210k business + ~60k VIP) or less, but again I'll play the 'best case scenario' and call it $670k.
This is the general atmosphere of the economy in that period of time that existed between the release of I/E and the release of gunrunning where still the $200k/hr has remained constant, although this period of time resulted in what was probably the 'golden era' of grinds where instead of tedious contact mission/VIP you had a relatively easy I/E and biker business farming. Make no mistake; I/E and bikers did not greatly increase that $200k/hr benchmark, but simply meant that achieving that became easier and less tedious.
What has changed now is the (IMO unfortunate, but inevitable) addition of 'research items.' Researching items (aka pay for the privilege of paying for stuff) is a cornerstone of the free-to-play business model. This was inevitable in my eyes, seeing this writing on the wall since Jan 2014, but distasteful nonetheless.
How does this play into the economy above? As described, a number of folks have identified the above grind cycles as most efficient. Of course this was then further refined into the process that has become a rob Peter to pay Paul situation where you complete one task that was once pure profit and now use the gains to subsidise another as with I/E cars and biker supplies. On its own, this is the most efficient method. Adding another business, aside from the startup costs wouldn't initially seem to upset that balance. If anything, you'd expect that to increase gains with more passive earnings.
However, the reality is that now you take your 'best case' 3hr earnings of $670k, and you subtract the $75k in supplies for the bunker. This time, though, that purchase of supplies doesn't produce any profit as it is used up in research initially, simply reducing your $670k to $595. Even more unfortunate is that a lot of the items that you will spend capital on are likely for naught as many will not buy all or even most of the unlocks.
So, now you are back to below $200k per hour. Only instead of casually selling a couple of cars an hour with a lazy 20-30 min biker sell mission once every 3hrs; you now sourced and sold your couple of cars per hour, you've done your sell mission, you've hustled back and forth across the map to resupply the bunker, resupply the factory, rushed through some VIP work, maybe sold a Sentinel or two, and more! All to end up making less than you were before when you weren't working nearly as hard. Looks like R* has that American economic satire nailed.
The best part? All that extra hustling to make even less than before did bring you one benefit? You have more crap unlocked to spend more of your hard earned on, which if you do sets you even further back than my 'best case scenario' illustrates. Fun right?
Naturally, once you've unlocked everything(which is a minimum cost of $3,375,000 just to unlock, not including purchase price and takes 247 hours of gameplay!!!) those costs coupled with the startup expenses leave you over $4,540,000 in the hole. Again, this is the best case scenario assuming you bought the least costly bunker with no upgrades(which is actually detrimental long term to profit due to opportunity cost.) Net profit in a full sale without upgrades appears to be ~$375k(I haven't checked and sources seem to vary) and takes over 12 hours per(sources also seem to vary as most only cite fully upgraded at 11hrs 40mins.) That's over 12 full stock sales, and 144 hours of gameplay just to break even(that is after you spend 247 hours on research.) It would seem that from a pure profit standpoint if one did not care for unlocking the items it would likely not make sense to even get into the bunker business and stick with the old methods. Also, please remember none of this accounts for any losses incurred from ammo, vehicles, and perhaps most importantly the businesses staff/maintenance fees. As such, ALL of these numbers above are OVERESTIMATES and you will actually make less in practice. Furthermore, all of this assumes nothing ever sits without supplies, or full of stock unsold, or anything. Maximum efficiency, which is unattainable in practice. You'll always be doing something else when the bunker fills, and have to travel there, etc wasting more time(read: earning potential.) Even so with these best case scenarios, its a racket. However, it's something else to do and that is enough for some.
While the above information assumes that folks took the least costly initial startup, ignores any and all ancillary costs, that you never make a mistake, are never raided, etc; there are alternatives. For folks that have the capital to front for the upgrades, that will return your startup and research costs faster, and fast-tracking research on everything changes the numbers a bit. If you fast track everything, the up front costs go way up. The well-heeled player's numbers look closer to $17mil after upgraded bunker, MOC, fast-tracking everything. That is before you spend a dime upgrading the MOC, buy any of the new weapons, unlocks, vehicles, ANYTHING! However, the well-heeled player has an advantage in that they can then immediately devote the business to profit rather than research. IMO, while the return comes a lot faster and as such long-term profits will always be ahead of the guy who let the research go on its own, the initial outlay makes it so unattractive even to those who can afford it that I wouldn't go that route. I have no illusions of using the business to recoup its own costs(much like crates weren't enough to pay for the CEO update before the next update came) and don't plan to encorporate the business into my long-term routine(see above where I'm basically tapped out in time as it is.)
In short, this is crazy.
I do have to congratulate R* on creating such a convoluted business-scape that leaves the average player working harder than ever for less than ever, while devaluing what they've already earned with new items with higher costs, and in this case forcing folks to spend money they spent their hard earned time to make elsewhere just to unlock crap they may never buy all the while never realising it because of that inflation. My hat's off to you, clowns!
Of course none of this is really news, and this study only affirms what I expected and posted on this previously, even before the numbers were available. And again while it doesn't negatively affect me as I'll purchase the stuff as a hangout and close the business once I unlock the crap I'll never buy(
) and even wasting some money doesn't put me out, I like to try and illustrate this stuff for others.
Lastly, for those looking for my own personal advice; buy the bunker for the unlocks, MOC, etc if you want those. I would not buy the business with intent to profit as the breakeven is too far out and time constraints will not allow most players to keep up with it along with their other grinds which only makes it less efficient that described above. If you don't I/E and prefer only the passive grinds like biker businesses and are in it for the long haul, you can make money; but it's not the ~20 hour ROI that biker was nor the ~8hr return that the I/E warehouse was. Once the unlocks are completed I will likely let the supplies left turn to stock, sell it and close up shop. The two sale missions I have done so far were annoying enough that I'll just stick with I/E and the biker factory.
FWIW, I expect to see more content like this update, where instead of investing your money/time in increasing profits it is sunk as dead money into things like research and unlocks. This is likely the beginning of what is to come. They cannot continue to release long-term profitable activities along with one-time purchasable items unless they expect devaluation to eventually occur as folks purchase everything they want but continue to have funds available to earn. So far they have kept this up only because the frequency of the updates haven't allowed most folks to hit breakeven prior to the next update and thus folks keep rolling their losses into the next activity. Much like how I spent ~$15m on the update that released crates but could only earn $12m of that back before the next update and m0ar $tuff to OMG buy now, these long-term activities only work in the current economy as the stuff that releases with it outpaces what you can earn in the same interval. If updates are to become less frequent, eventually they will have to introduce more costs that don't provide a ROI(like research) or we will face a majorly devalued currency. If that were to occur it would greatly impact online replaying numbers, so I won't hold my breath for that.
Given the change in moneymaking opportunities it has become even more obsolete for me. While general averages per hour still hover round $200k(as they likely always will, because as I've mentioned before the entire economy is based on a time/money relation,) every 2nd or 3rd hour(depending on how many business you may own and how you may stagger their progress) you can make over $300k. In a 3-4 hour session it is possible to clear over $1m, and by most accounts I am one of the laziest players out there.
