Major Earthquake & Tsunami in Japan

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Sky News are making something of nothing then?

:eek: No, you reckon?! ... Which brings me onto this:

I was looking into some stats on earthquakes yesterday and was very surprised (I really should have known better) just how frequently they occur and the amount of people killed by them each year. It just goes to show how the media pick and choose their stories in order to sell papers and chase ratings.

This link shows recorded quakes over the last three decades, their strength and the estimated death tolls...

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eqarchives/year/graphs.php

What it doesn't do is tally up the total figures, so I have taken the liberty.

Number of recorded quakes …

2010 – 2011* - 248
*(Not sure when the stats were last updated, definitely not in the last few weeks)

2000-2009 – 1611

1990 – 1999 – 1492

1980-1989 – 1085


Note that the number of recorded quakes used to be lower as there were less seismographs being used. That's almost 4,500 recorded quakes (measured by one agency) in the last 30 years. Seems surprising that cities aren’t getting rocked by them daily, I guess most of them happen on fault lines on the sea bed.

Estimated number of deaths (I don’t know if these include deaths from follow up Tsunamis – I assume not)

2010- – 226,922 (not including the latest one, that figure alone must basically account for Haiti!)

2000-2009 – 471,015

1990-1999 – 94,900

1980-1989 – 58,880


That's almost one million deaths from earthquakes in the past 30 years. I assume deaths have become easier to record and report over recent years with the advances in communications technology. I also surmise that in more recent years the population has become more urbanized which probably and unfortunately leads to more deaths when a city is hit.
 
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In thirty years, Earthquakes have killed almost as many people as die from traffic accidents every year?

There are lots of Earthquakes, but many of them are too small to be felt by anything but instruments. The easiest prediction any "psychic" can make is that there will be an Earthquake tomorrow. They will always be right.

I'm surprised nobody "predicted" that there would be a big Earthquake in Japan... specifically, I mean... and not vaguely that "something is going to happen somewhere."

Since we live on the "Ring of Fire", the USGS website is on many people's bookmarks tab here... every time we feel even the tiniest wiggle, the local boards are inundated with copy-pasted USGS updates.
 
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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-12773350

Valiant efforts are underway to restore electricity to the plant. The is the best hope to replenish circulating water to the rod storage tanks, which are open on the top to the atmosphere and not protected by the reactor cap and containment vessel. Water is still needed to cool and shield the rods, as efforts to supply this by helicopter and firetruck seemed so far unavailing.

There is everything still to play for in this unfolding crisis, as the fuel rods - some of them mixed with plutonium which apparently burns at a lower temperature than the standard uranium rods - have not yet reached criticality. Should the closely packed rods in the open tanks begin the nuclear chain reaction, very unhealthy amounts of steam and particles could be transported by air currents to areas far and wide.

All our hopes and fears are riding on the skill and bravery of an embattled "band of brothers" on the scene, and whatever equipment and resources can be brought to bear by Japan and the world community. With many Japanese friends and neighbors here in Seattle, I feel personally involved in the outcome. As the final hours of uncertainty and possibility are played out, I offer my hopes and prayers for the best possible outcome.

Most humbly submitted,
Steve
 
Should the closely packed rods in the open tanks begin the nuclear chain reaction...

... then we'd need to re-evaluate our understanding of nuclear physics.

Nuclear fuel rods consist of enriched Uranium, with a fissile component (U235) of about 4% - compared to 0.7% in naturally occuring Uranium. Once this is spent, the fuel is no longer capable of sustaining a nuclear chain reaction.

The reason it's stored in cooling ponds is because it's still radioactive - the products of fission will decay to smaller products, emitting significant heat (as will the main component of uranium, U238, just very slowly).

Spent fuel rods, no matter how tightly-packed, will not start or sustain a nuclear chain reaction. They will, however, get very hot if not immersed in water (which absorbs heat, stray neutrons and alpha and beta radiation most effectively) and can exceed the autoignition point of air - causing fire in the air simply through heat. If it gets hot enough to melt the zircalloy tube in which the fuel is stored (2,200 degrees) it can aerosolise the fuel, spreading radioactive material (largely caesium and iodine isotopes) wherever the wind blows.


But no nuclear chain reaction.
 
It's a misconception that the rods in storage are all spent. For instance, the rods in storage at #4 are said to be fresher that the rods in reactors 1, 2, & 3, according to data appended to an authoritative skeptical website linked above.

Tepco themselves have admitted the possibility of re-criticality is not zero. Please correct me if I'm wrong, but does not criticality imply chain reaction?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_criticality_safety
 
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If "spent" fuel rods cannot go recritical, and Tepco have stated that the fuel rods in the pool in reactor 4 could go recritical, then, unless Tepco have a pretty shoddy understanding of nuclear physics, one can only assume that the fuel rods in the pool in reactor 4 cannot be spent...
 
It's a misconception that the rods in storage are all spent.

Used fuel commonly has less U235 than naturally occurring Uranium - 0.7%. Used fuel is only distinguishable from depleted uranium - a byproduct of the enrichment process, so more than 99.27% U238 - by the presence of U236 in the used fuel.

That's not to say that all fuel bundles in each rod is spent, but the rods themselves are.


A fuel rod for a BWR is a bundle of fuel tubes. Each tube contains enriched uranium (4% or so U235) pellets wrapped in a zircalloy tube. The tubes are then strapped together into bundles of 90 or so, filled with helium at 0.3MPa and precisely spaced to optimise neutron capture. The rod itself isn't massive enough to sustain criticality and needs putting together with other rods, precisely spaced to optimise neutron capture.

One a fuel rod is no longer capable of capturing and emitting neutrons, it's not capable of sustaining the chain reaction. It's now "spent", even though individual bundles or pellets may still be enriched. It is removed, and put in a cooling pond a foot away from its peers while the fission products decay, emitting heat, alpha and beta radiation and neutrons. The water absorbs all of these - air sucks at three of them.


An individual fuel rod cannot sustain a nuclear chain reaction on its own (or else they'd melt when they were made). A "spent" fuel rod certainly cannot. Both are still radioactive (and significantly so) and spent fuel rods may still emit neutrons and capture them and if not covered in water they can still capture neutrons from other fuel rods a foot away and emit them to them, but they cannot sustain a nuclear chain reaction in this manner - and I'd doubt that even fresh, enriched rods could either, though I'd be inclined to not want to be nearby for that particular test.

The heat is the danger in the drained cooling ponds, as detailed above.


Tepco themselves have admitted the possibility of re-criticality is not zero.

On the basis of quantum physics - anything can happen for any reason - I'd agree.

If they were talking about the cooling ponds specifically, rather than a core melt bringing lots of enriched uranium together into one lump, I'd not be in any particular hurry to agree that criticality is in any way a risk. Not that aerosolised caesium isotopes are much less of an issue.


If "spent" fuel rods cannot go recritical, and Tepco have stated that the fuel rods in the pool in reactor 4 could go recritical, then, unless Tepco have a pretty shoddy understanding of nuclear physics, one can only assume that the fuel rods in the pool in reactor 4 cannot be spent...

I've seen the statement "The possibility of recriticality is not zero" attributed to TEPCO by the BBC. I have no idea what part of the power station it applies to.

About the only way I can think of that the reactor 4 cooling pond situation could result in a criticality is if it the rods get so hot they all melt to the bottom of the cooling pond to form a big lump of partially-enriched uranium. The ponds would need to be utterly empty though and the melt would need to be "just so". It could happen, so the possibility isn't zero.
 
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That's not to say that all fuel bundles in each rod is spent, but the rods themselves are.

Post of 10:34 am, 3/18
http://bravenewclimate.com/2011/03/17/fukushima-17-march-summary/
There is now some interesting additional information available:

Reactor 1 has last refueled 357 days ago (I believe that’s the day of last criticality of the hottest fuel in the SFP)
Reactor 2 has last refueled 182 days ago
Reactor 3 has last refueled 268 days ago (34 MOX assemblies then added)
Reactor 4 was last refueled 107 days ago (entire core in the pool)
No data about reactor 5 and 6 refuelings, but pool temperatures around 60 C and can take more week from today without boiling even if no water added (and the water that is there is being cooled with diesel backup power, just that no water has been added)
 
If "spent" fuel rods cannot go recritical, and Tepco have stated that the fuel rods in the pool in reactor 4 could go recritical, then, unless Tepco have a pretty shoddy understanding of nuclear physics, one can only assume that the fuel rods in the pool in reactor 4 cannot be spent...

I read somewhere that immediately after the earthquake rods were removed from a reactor and put in a cooling tank so if this was reactor 4 it would explain why some of the fuel isn't spent.

EDIT: looks like it was reactor 4.

...They will, however, get very hot if not immersed in water (which absorbs heat, stray neutrons and alpha and beta radiation most effectively)...

I am walking proof of this as I went on the behind the scenes tour of Sellafield as a kid and was taken into the cooling ponds room...


As well as dealing with the nuclear situation it is equally critical to deal with restoring services and distributing food and medical supplies. Seeing the state of the hospitals on the news last night was quite alarming and according to BBC news "At least 27 evacuees have died over the last week, presumably due to poor medical support, the NHK broadcaster reports."
 
Post of 10:34 am, 3/18
http://bravenewclimate.com/2011/03/17/fukushima-17-march-summary/
There is now some interesting additional information available:

Reactor 1 has last refueled 357 days ago (I believe that’s the day of last criticality of the hottest fuel in the SFP)
Reactor 2 has last refueled 182 days ago
Reactor 3 has last refueled 268 days ago (34 MOX assemblies then added)
Reactor 4 was last refueled 107 days ago (entire core in the pool)
No data about reactor 5 and 6 refuelings, but pool temperatures around 60 C and can take more week from today without boiling even if no water added (and the water that is there is being cooled with diesel backup power, just that no water has been added)

I know that reactor 4 wasn't operational at the time of the shutdown and hadn't been for some time. However, all that means is that the rods are more radiologically active than the others - "hotter" - not containing more enriched fuel.

Once you put a fuel rod into "normal" water (such as the water in a cooling pond), it isn't usable in a reactor again. The rods placed there must be largely spent, even if individual tubes and pellets weren't. Remember - the rods would be replaced just before they could no longer maintain an effective chain reaction when placed, in air, at the optimal distances apart from each other inside a nuclear reactor core. If they could maintain any form of effective chain reaction when place, in air, a foot apart from each other in a concrete-lined (neutron absorbing, not reflecting) swimming pool, they should still be in a reactor and not rendered unuseable by normal water...


The two largest actual risks from Fukushima I remain as aerosolised radioactive contaminants (high risk) and the loss of electricity generation capacity on the relief effort (already happened). Further criticality incidents cannot be ruled out, either in the reactors or the cooling ponds, but they are unlikely (low risk) and very unlikely (non-zero) in that order.
 
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The two largest actual risks from Fukushima I remain as aerosolised radioactive contaminants (high risk) and the loss of electricity generation capacity on the relief effort (already happened). Further criticality incidents cannot be ruled out, either in the reactors or the cooling ponds, but they are unlikely (low risk) and very unlikely (non-zero) in that order.

Water in at least one fuel pool - in reactor 3 - is believed to be dangerously low, exposing the stored fuel rods.

If the ponds run dry, a nuclear chain reaction could release more radiation into the atmosphere.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-12783832

Due to the unfortunate fact that storage of nuclear fuel waste has never been solved, the operators of Fukushima have been obliged to re-rack their storage ponds so that rods are stored together more tightly than specified in the original design.



My estimates of the number of fuel assemblies in the reactor SF ponds, based on Te figures and ~ 170kg U in BWR FA;

Unit 1 – 294
Unit 2 – 581
Unit 3 – 523
Unit 4 – 756
Unit 5 – 872
Unit 6 – 1503

With an estimate of 6291 in the common poll and 408 in dry casks this gives a total of 11,229 – close to the recent figure of 11,195 stored on site.

The unit 4 includes the 548 FA full core unload during the current Unit 4 maintenance. This will have a range of burnup from 1-3 years.
In common with many power plants, SF capacity is nearing full (common pool capacity 6840 FA), therefore more SF have to be stored in the reactor SF ponds – not just the last few unloads.
There will be a time limit for decay before SF is transported from the reactor SF pool to the common fuel because of transport cask limitations.
Fuel weight is normally given in TeHM – heavy metal – ie the uranium content.

Post of 10:31 am, 3/18 http://bravenewclimate.com/2011/03/17/fukushima-17-march-summary/

I would appreciate some remarks by Famine or other experts regarding the role gamma rays and plutonium may play in this situation.
 
Water in at least one fuel pool - in reactor 3 - is believed to be dangerously low, exposing the stored fuel rods.

If the ponds run dry, a nuclear chain reaction could release more radiation into the atmosphere.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-12783832

Are you directly quoting the article you linked there? I can't find the bit about a chain reaction, not even with a text search.

If it's a quote then they have since altered it to not say chain reaction now. If it's not a quote then where are you getting it from?
 
Are you directly quoting the article you linked there? I can't find the bit about a chain reaction, not even with a text search.

If it's a quote then they have since altered it to not say chain reaction now. If it's not a quote then where are you getting it from?

FoolKiller, I copied and pasted it directly from the article cited. In checking again, I see it's not there now, so they must have omitted it. Hopefully, this is an indication of good news. The firetrucks, supplemented by US military firetrucks, seem to be gaining the upper hand on water losses from the pond(s).
 
FoolKiller, I copied and pasted it directly from the article cited. In checking again, I see it's not there now, so they must have omitted it.
If it is a legitimate change of the situation most reliable news agencies will put an update notice at the beginning of the article. Quietly changing things often means they screwed up fact checking and caught it later. Chances are chain reaction was not uttered by anyone they interviewed.
 
"Recriticality" means chain reaction, does it not?

But as Famine has already explained, while the chances of recriticality are "non-zero" as per the original statement, it is extremely unlikely to happen - but technically possible.
 
If it is a legitimate change of the situation most reliable news agencies will put an update notice at the beginning of the article. Quietly changing things often means they screwed up fact checking and caught it later. Chances are chain reaction was not uttered by anyone they interviewed.

I suspect and hope you are right, and that the corner has truly been turned on this terrible situation.
 
There will be no chain reaction in the spent fuel pools, but:



Interview with nuclear physicist Frank N. von Hippel, Former assistant director for national security in the White House Office of Science and Technology, Rachel Maddow, March 15, 2011 (Begins at 10:05)
 
Just a bit about MOX:

"Popular" Isotopes:

With Uranium, the two isotopes of concern are Caesium-137 and Iodine-131. The latter having a half-life of 8 days, so is less of a risk now, unless fuel is still critical somewhere (unlikely). The Caesium is especially worrisome as it is not only quite volatile, it also forms from Xenon, a gas, so is likely to be an aerosol when it is formed - it is also further down the decay path than Iodine and is produced for many tens of days after criticality, and has a longer half-life of 30 years - i.e. it can easily spread and will then persist. Caesium has extreme chemical reactivity, and it will find its way into biological material fairly easily, just as Iodine can. Xenon, on the other hand, is chemically inert and the other Iodine isotope, I-129, has a half-life of 15 million years and so has very little radio-activity.

Note that none of these isotopes occur in the natural decay paths for Uranium-238 or Uranium-235, and that Plutonium-239 technically precedes Uranium-235 in its natural decay path. In a nuclear reactor, there is the possibility of new and exciting isotopes being formed from (thermal) neutron capture, which is really the whole point. This makes natural decay paths of the pure fuel partially redundant (depending on a little thing called "neutron activation cross section" of each isotope) as long as the reactor is critical.

Activation and Decay Products:

A graph is compiled for Uranium-235 and Plutonium-239.
These show the statistical spread of fission products from these fuels during critical operation, and include the effects of neutron capture probabilities and decay pathways, as well as decay rates.

Remember that Pu-239 technically heads the U-235 decay tree and is formed from neutron capture in U-238, hence the similarity of the graphs - although there may well be significant differences in certain species that is not immediately apparent.

The species present in the spent fuel will depend on how long the fuel was critical for as well as how long since that criticality ended. There are more graphs available, such as the neutron capture cross-section mentioned earlier and the neutron fission cross-section. These are effectively a measure of the "probability" of such events occurring for a given species, and are incomplete. Neutron-induced fission (i.e. nuclear fission) is actually the main goal of nuclear reactors, but the other stuff happens too - including to any containment material, which is why their selection is so critical. Note that Zirconium-96 is particularly resistant to neutron capture and that Pu-239 is about 3 times more likely to "split" than to simply assimilate a thermal neutron - that same ratio is 6 for U-235, but Pu-239 absorbs 3 times more neutrons than U-235, and will produce 50% more fission events per neutron than U-235 (and marginally more neutrons per fission) making it sustain criticality more readily and may also require changes to control rods / their controls.

For reference, Z is proton number (the number that determines the name of the element and its chemical properties) and N is the neutron number. Neutron capture in an element will yield the element directly to its right in the charts linked above. This may then decay via any one of many means, depending on the species.


Heat Concerns:

Be aware that reactors will tend not to use 100% MOX rods - only 1/3rd is typical. Add to that the typical concentration of Plutonium-239 in the MOX rods at 7%, the rest being Uranium. Compare that to U-235 at 3-5% in Low Enriched Uranium (typical of Uranium-fuelled reactors) and recall the above ratios of neutron-induced fission to neutron-capture. Also remember the fact that Pu-239 can be formed from neutron capture in U-238, and precedes U-235 in its natural decay chain.

The real problem, I imagine, is the lower thermal conductivity of Plutonium Oxide fuel versus Uranium Dioxide and the lower melting point (2400°C vs. 2865°C.) Note that "Zircaloy" is not one grade, and melting points vary around 1850 ± 20°C, and more depending on heating rate.

I don't know the exact difference in thermal conductivity, but it will result in a higher core operating temperature for a given coolant temperature (and void fraction) and thermal load on the fuel itself. This means that the Plutonium Dioxide will begin to melt the casing before Uranium Dioxide in the same environment - coupled with the lower melting point (and boiling point - 2800°C !) the risk of an exposure is higher with Plutonium Dioxide, and with it the possible dispersal of radioactive material. Note that these effects are dispersed amongst the fuel itself, so the bulk behaviour is only marginally different to standard Uranium fuel.


As for gamma rays, I couldn't comment. It depends entirely on what species are present which can vary more from the fuel's usage history than from its type, at least as regards Uranium and Plutonium.


NOTE: I compiled this from information found all over the web. I encourage you all to do your own research to support your own knowledge.


EDIT: Don't want this going unnoticed:
There will be no chain reaction in the spent fuel pools, but:



Interview with nuclear physicist Frank N. von Hippel, Former assistant director for national security in the White House Office of Science and Technology, Rachel Maddow, March 15, 2011 (Begins at 10:05)
 
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Another survivor. 👍

I saw an American Red Cross donation box for the Tsunami relief at Panda Express? Except Panda Express says that they will match the donation amount collected. I'm sure there is a cap limit to that, but as someone who enjoy their quickie Chinese food, I sure appreciate the assistance they are offering. If you also visit Panda Express, please look for the donation box. :)👍
 
-> I'm glad I just donated USD$2 to the American Red Cross thru my PS3's Aid Japan Campaign. I felt relieved that I'm a part of the cause now.
 
No comment...

B6AF76859D36B0FB9C477A544D670F49.jpg
 
-> I'm glad I just donated USD$2 to the American Red Cross thru my PS3's Aid Japan Campaign. I felt relieved that I'm a part of the cause now.
Japanese Red Cross acknowledges & thanks for our help:

The Japanese Red Cross Society has repeatedly expressed its gratitude for the support of the American Red Cross and people in the United States.

"The compassion the American people have demonstrated over the past week through their generous support to the American Red Cross is incredibly uplifting at a time when we are dealing with a such an immense humanitarian tragedy, said Satoshi Sugai, director, Disaster Relief for the Japanese Red Cross. “This financial support is very much needed and continues to be welcomed to help the hundreds of thousands of lives that will forever be changed by this disaster.”

Full Report

Many are helping out, and while there can never be adequate aid for disaster of epic proportion like this, I'm just so glad to know that many of the victims are receiving help from the generosity of people around the world.
 
^ That statement gave me HUGE goosebumps!

-> That PS3's Aid Japan campaign really gave me a chance to donate even with my meager budget. Good thing I still have money on my PSN acct! :)
 
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