MH17 Crash In Ukraine. Known info in OP.

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I might be wrong but we are acting as the "big brother" who is needed to stand up Russia.The EU needs Putin's natural gas and are in a very weak position.

Thanks for the info. So basically being World Police then when we should really mind our own business. With the EU and Australia combined on this topic we should probably let them talk for us. Rather than trying to pin something on Russia to say "see we were right" and look smug.

Other than taking political influence in the world away from Russia on this for the year, I don't see any gain from us to keep poking a bear that has enough to deal with on its own already. Russia are quite aware of the situation, and to ask them to hold up rebels to some standard is an obvious ploy to make Russia look like a bad guy and win this contest of Ukraine vs Crimea.
 
Great article from The New Republic about the way flight MH17 (the plane shot down over the Ukraine) is being reported by Russia's state-controlled news outlets.

The Russian Public Has a Totally Different Understanding of What Happened to Malaysia Airlines Flight 17
http://www.newrepublic.com/node/118782

The conspiracy theories that are being reported by the state controlled news are beyond belief:

The best of the bunch is, of course, an elaborate one: MH17 is actually MH370, that Malaysia Airlines flight that disappeared into the Indian Ocean. According to this theory, the plane didn’t disappear at all...

“It was taken to an American military base, Diego-Garcia. Then it was taken to Holland. On the necessary day and hour, it flew out, bound for Malaysia, but inside were not live people, but corpses. The plane was flown not by real pilots; it was on autopilot. Or take-off (a complicated procedure) was executed by live pilots, who then ejected on parachutes.Then the plane flew automatically. In the necessary spot, it was blown up, without even using a surface-to-air missile. Instead the plane was packed with a bomb, just like the CIA did on 9/11.
 
No we cant just close our eyes and say that is "Europe's" business,we tried that in the late 30's too,remember how that turned out.
 
This map in particular is of interest to me.

aviation-ai2html-600.png


The text isn't showing so I'll quote it.

The plane was on Airway L980, which had remained open above 32,000 feet during the conflict in Ukraine.

Before Flight 17 took off, Russia closed more than a dozen airways at various altitudes.

The route that Flight 17 would have followed was only open above 32,000 feet.

Apparently the plane was flying at 33,000 feet at this point in its journey which was perfectly legal. The caption of this map states that Russia closed some of its airways - which are inside Russia, not over Ukraine - at and below 32,000 feet, which is in keeping with Ukraine's restrictions, just hours before the crash. I wish they'd give me more specifics on that because it took the plane "just hours" to reach this point of its flight. Probably around 2 hours. Russia's restriction wouldn't have mattered for planning purposes because the flight was above that anyway but the plane could have taken off without dispatchers factoring that into the flight plan.

Why did Russia close the routes? The only planes that fly that high are commercial airliners and most of them are above 32,000 feet anyway. Smaller planes and military planes will often fly below commercial airliners though not necessarily on jet routes. Maybe they were simply trying to align the restrictions across borders for simplicity's sake because the rebel activity really is unpredictable. Or maybe Russia was aware that the rebels were going to target military aircraft below that altitude so they closed the routes to guarantee that civilian planes aren't in the mix over their own country.

And then maybe MH17 just happened to be crossing over at the wrong time, right as they'd gotten the missiles set up, and the rebels didn't bother doing any research so they just aimed and shot. Oops. When you've got a peace of heavy weaponry that you shouldn't have sitting out in the open you probably won't want to sit around for hours waiting for the perfect target. Their effort seems pretty opportunistic to me. And I don't think Russia would condone targeting civilian planes but I do think they might have been aware the weapon was taken and that the rebels were going to try something clever, therefore they put the restriction in place just in time in an effort to make sure no civilian planes got shot down on Russian land.
 
Great article from The New Republic about the way flight MH17 (the plane shot down over the Ukraine) is being reported by Russia's state-controlled news outlets.

The Russian Public Has a Totally Different Understanding of What Happened to Malaysia Airlines Flight 17
http://www.newrepublic.com/node/118782

The conspiracy theories that are being reported by the state controlled news are beyond belief:

So I see that Russia watched the first season of Sherlock...
No we cant just close our eyes and say that is "Europe's" business,we tried that in the late 30's too,remember how that turned out.

If it turns into war, that's different. No one is saying let a ruler massacre millions of people and pretend that only our bubble in the world exist. What I'm merely saying is that we shouldn't antagonize either or make loaded questions on a political front due to some idea of winning a pissing contest. If the people of Crimea really want to go over to Russia they should be allowed without us playing helper to Ukraine to stop it from happening.

These moments are not alike so I don't really see the comparison. If you're fine with the U.S. prodding then okay good for you but my political stance has me say otherwise.
 
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No we cant just close our eyes and say that is "Europe's" business,we tried that in the late 30's too,remember how that turned out.

Well, you sold Hitler the computers that he organised his population with and you, amongst many others, took money for arms despite the embargo on him.

Although that was the early 30s, maybe the isolationism hadn't fully kicked in by then ;) Or you'd already turned your attention to the Far East...
 
The EU is now speeding up the new sanctions against Russia to force them into securing the crash site. More sanctions will follow and will be targeted at Russia's financial system.
 
Well, you sold Hitler the computers that he organised his population with and you, amongst many others, took money for arms despite the embargo on him.

Although that was the early 30s, maybe the isolationism hadn't fully kicked in by then ;) Or you'd already turned your attention to the Far East...
Me personally? :eek:

The United States must be involved at a diplomatic and intelligence level to assist in the investigation and with sanctions on the shirtless bro' but beyond that all other roads lead to a bad place.
 
Me personally? :eek:

The United States must be involved at a diplomatic and intelligence level to assist in the investigation and with sanctions on the shirtless bro' but beyond that all other roads lead to a bad place.

Why?
 
For the Ukranian government ("West" Ukraine) to be complicit they'd have to get the correct piece of equipment to that area, secretly and unseen. That would be a hell of a job and for that reason alone I can't see how they're involved.

Russian satellite images have shown Ukraine had 4 BUK M1 systems in eastern Ukraine on the day of the crash. The plane was within their coverage sector: http://en.itar-tass.com/world/741669

There were also satellite images taken after the crash showing those BUKs were no longer there.

Great article from The New Republic about the way flight MH17 (the plane shot down over the Ukraine) is being reported by Russia's state-controlled news outlets.

The Russian Public Has a Totally Different Understanding of What Happened to Malaysia Airlines Flight 17
http://www.newrepublic.com/node/118782

The conspiracy theories that are being reported by the state controlled news are beyond belief:

I follow all the main Russian news outlets and I haven't heard most of those theories once. Whoever wrote that was digging through the Infowars of Russia for that nice, sensationalist article of theirs.

The EU is now speeding up the new sanctions against Russia to force them into securing the crash site. More sanctions will follow and will be targeted at Russia's financial system.

What's their logic behind this? The DNR militia, unlike what they may believe, does not take command from Russia. The only way Russia could secure the crash site is by bringing a number of their own troops in, which in turn Ukraine will label as a provocation.
 
They might send them to the US so Boeing can review the data.
They don't trust the US.

None of the evidence or descriptions I've seen have suggested that either government shot down the plane. Everything points to the rebels, and there is conversational evidence suggesting they didn't even do it on purpose but thought they shot down a military plane instead.

The rebels don't have a government. They're attempting to side with Russia, yes, but they're not under Russian jurisdiction.
Well, they have a self-proclaimed government. They're about to form their own police and regular army.
They may want to join RF, but Kremlin doesn't plan to annex Novorossiya (I think). Repair the ruined infrastructure - nah, it would cost too much, Crimea takes a lot of funds already.
Sadly, but if that war ends one day - Novorossiya will become another Transnistria, I think. A poor, ruined republic not recognized by anyone.

If I declare myself a King can I have a press conference with other PM's too?
If you form a government, an army, seize control on somewhat big territory and get supported by the people - why not? :D
 
They don't trust the US.
The black boxes will be sent to Boeing for review because Boeing built the plane. That's how these investigations work. The main parties involved are the manufacturers of the plane, the airline, the nationalities associated with them, the nationalities of the people onboard and of where the accident occurred. Basically anybody with a stake in the accident is required to participate in the investigation. Not allowing that would cause a **** storm.

As an American who can respect a group of people fighting for what they believe in, I'm pretty disappointed that these rebels would make such a mistake and part of me wishes the US military would roll in there and show Ukraine, the rebels and Russia how to get things done. I'm envisioning a Desert Storm-like operation centered around protecting the accident site and ruining anybody who gets in the way.

But I wouldn't want to discredit myself so I'll just sit here and be grumpy.
 
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The black boxes will be sent to Boeing for review because Boeing built the plane. That's how these investigations work. The main parties involved are the manufacturers of the plane, the airline, the nationalities associated with them, the nationalities of the people onboard and of where the accident occurred. Basically anybody with a stake in the accident is required to participate in the investigation. Not allowing that would cause a **** storm.

They will be investigated by the AAIB in the UK. They will retrieve the data and hand it over to the leading investigating authority, the Netherlands.

Also, tomorrow the bodies will be brought to Eindhoven, the Netherlands and from there to a military medical facility for identification in Hilversum, my hometown.
 
Investigators are saying that there are significantly less bodies on the train than they were told by the separatists - more than 80 bodies are unaccounted for.

I follow all the main Russian news outlets and I haven't heard most of those theories once. Whoever wrote that was digging through the Infowars of Russia for that nice, sensationalist article of theirs.

You don't say.

http://www.vesti.ru/doc.html?id=1809353
 
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Um, do you actually speak and read Russian? Because what that article discusses, is the apparition of multiple fake and unbelievable theories such as the one that MH17 is in reality MH370.

Basically it calls those theories out as being made up, rather than saying that they are or might be true. The exact opposite of what you're trying to prove.
 
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The black boxes will be sent to Boeing for review because Boeing built the plane. That's how these investigations work. The main parties involved are the manufacturers of the plane, the airline, the nationalities associated with them, the nationalities of the people onboard and of where the accident occurred. Basically anybody with a stake in the accident is required to participate in the investigation. Not allowing that would cause a **** storm.

Eventually the boxes will be reviewed by Boeing, normally that would be to inform design/safety improvement. In this case clearly there's little to learn.

Initially the boxes are going to be downloaded by the UK AAIB on a rig at Farnborough, I believe they're there or on their way there now.

Russian satellite images have shown Ukraine had 4 BUK M1 systems in eastern Ukraine on the day of the crash. The plane was within their coverage sector: http://en.itar-tass.com/world/741669

So why haven't the Ukrainians held the crash site if they were able to operate in the area with impunity?
 
So why haven't the Ukrainians held the crash site if they were able to operate in the area with impunity?

The BUKs were positioned in the south-east of the country, close to the DNR border but still in Ukrainian territory. You have to keep in mind the operating range of the missiles, in reality the area from where they could have been launched is relatively large.
 
The BUKs were positioned in the south-east of the country, close to the DNR border but still in Ukrainian territory. You have to keep in mind the operating range of the missiles, in reality the area from where they could have been launched is relatively large.

And what do you believe the operating range of the missile to be?

EDIT: In an ideal world it's 45,000 metres. The target was at 10,000 metres in altitude. The ancient master of missile launches, Herr Von Pythagoras tells us we need to be within 43,876 metres of the target, ground-position for ground-position.

The target could be moving towards us at around 500kigs, but as it's heading towards the Russian border we're more likely to be shooting sideways-on. Let's forget that for now, just as we'll forget the winds-aloft that a trained operator would be compensating for.

We need to think of ballistics now... Herr Von Pythagoras was invented before Newton thought of gravity and so didn't have the problem with missiles dipping. Once we've corrected for the ballistic arc we're going to shorten by about 20%, providing that our missile is going to peter out just as it reaches the jet.

We might be closer of course, but here we're trying to figure out how far away we need to be.

My back-of-a-fag-packet reckoning says; to hit a target at 10,000m the launch platform for a 450m/s missile needs to be within 26,000 metres of the "hit". That's not such a big area.
 
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And what do you believe the operating range of the missile to be?

EDIT: In an ideal world it's 45,000 metres. The target was at 10,000 metres in altitude. The ancient master of missile launches, Herr Von Pythagoras tells us we need to be within 43,876 metres of the target, ground-position for ground-position.
That depends very much on how range is quoted and it turns out it's not a straight forward thing with missiles. Trig isn't helping as the slant distance may not matter at all.


We need to think of ballistics now... Herr Von Pythagoras was invented before Newton thought of gravity and so didn't have the problem with missiles dipping. Once we've corrected for the ballistic arc we're going to shorten by about 20%, providing that our missile is going to peter out just as it reaches the jet.
I'm not sure if the Buk uses a lofting trajectory, but there is probably a huge margin or error here if you're assuming max missile range of 45 km means 45 km in a straight line.


My back-of-a-fag-packet reckoning says; to hit a target at 10,000m the launch platform for a 450m/s missile needs to be within 26,000 metres of the "hit". That's not such a big area.

To estimate the launcher position I'd put a 45 km ring around the plane. Then make radius a function of angle, with 45 km only possible with head on trajectory. With tail on aspect, I'd guess a max range of maybe 1/3 max so 15 km. To fill in the rest of the circle, extrapolate between the too extremes.
 
That depends very much on how range is quoted and it turns out it's not a straight forward thing with missiles. Trig isn't helping as the slant distance may not matter at all.

I'm not sure if the Buk uses a lofting trajectory, but there is probably a huge margin or error here if you're assuming max missile range of 45 km means 45 km in a straight line.

To estimate the launcher position I'd put a 45 km ring around the plane. Then make radius a function of angle, with 45 km only possible with head on trajectory. With tail on aspect, I'd guess a max range of maybe 1/3 max so 15 km. To fill in the rest of the circle, extrapolate between the too extremes.

Trig gives you the ideal gravityless distance but I'd compromise at 45km... but that seems to be with the targeting station. What isn't clear is the dumb "fire and forget" capacity of the missile (see target, point missile, shoot) on the occasions where the command/targeting vehicle isn't available.

10,000m is a significant climb though, at 45km out you'd be aiming to get 5,000 feet above that... which is very significant in terms of finite power.

I'd be very surprised to find that this system has a real-word effectiveness at over 30km from 10000m targets.
 
They will be investigated by the AAIB in the UK. They will retrieve the data and hand it over to the leading investigating authority, the Netherlands.

There have been worries made in the press that the recorders could have been tampered with given the time they were AWOL. I really hope that's what's in there hasn't been fabricated or corrupted illicitly. Experts claim it is totally possible to do this.
 
Trig gives you the ideal gravityless distance but I'd compromise at 45km... but that seems to be with the targeting station. What isn't clear is the dumb "fire and forget" capacity of the missile (see target, point missile, shoot) on the occasions where the command/targeting vehicle isn't available.

10,000m is a significant climb though, at 45km out you'd be aiming to get 5,000 feet above that... which is very significant in terms of finite power.

I'd be very surprised to find that this system has a real-word effectiveness at over 30km from 10000m targets.
It's not about the physics, but the definition of the "max range". Picture this. A target 30 miles away at 20,000 ft is flying at Mach 1. You launch and miss because the target is moving slow enough to remain out of range while the missile is at or above its altitude. A second target comes in, at 30 miles and 20,000 ft again, and again you shoot. However this one is flying at Mach 2. The missile just barely hits it. What's the max range? Is it 30 miles? Then why couldn't you hit the first target 30 miles away? Without knowing the details that lead to the 45 km range figure, we can't apply it to this case without some uncertainty.

They could measure the distance the missile actually travels, but I'm not aware of this as a common method of measurement. Also, western air to air missile displays show the dynamic max range, NEZ, and min range based on estimated ability to intercept a target at a given closure speed and altitude instead of distance the missile actually travels. As far as I know this is pretty standard, but I'm not less familiar with soviet tech and even less familiar with ground based systems.

Going back to the first point, you should expect an airliner to sit in the upper end of "maximum range" since it's basically a sitting target. Cruise speeds are Mach .7-.8, this is similar to fighter cruise speeds. Cruise altitudes are also similar between airliners and fighters. That would make this condition a good benchmark for missile range, which makes me think max range figures probably, but not certainly, are generally reliable without extreme modification. That's if the source for the numbers is good of course. If we really want to know someone either needs to dig up a documented test launch (good luck) or build a virtual model, which would require digging for missile CL, CD, thrust curves along with guidance systems information, etc.

The missile range itself isn't hindered by lack of the search radar, it is acquisition range that is limited. Guidance is the same in either (semi active radar, which is not fire and forget) case as it's the SR that cues the TR to the target. The problem with the TR stand alone is that it has limited capacity as a search tool.
 
So evidence is probably destroyed as we speak.
Let's have a big round of applause for the separatists, arguably the current lowest pieces of scum on the Earth.
 
@Exorcet, I'm going to bow to your knowledge on that one :)

The figures are from the SA11 wiki page, gives a range of 45km but as you say that could be construed a number of ways.

I still don't think that pro-Ukraine Ukraine got any operational ground force into that area.

There have been worries made in the press that the recorders could have been tampered with given the time they were AWOL. I really hope that's what's in there hasn't been fabricated or corrupted illicitly. Experts claim it is totally possible to do this.

Source for the experts?

It's possible but it's also extremely visible through a variety of methods. That's not a problem if you don't mind someone knowing you destroyed evidence of course.

What would they edit? The operability of the aircraft doesn't seem to in doubt.
 
Source for the experts?

It's possible but it's also extremely visible through a variety of methods. That's not a problem if you don't mind someone knowing you destroyed evidence of course.

I dunno the news usually just says 'experts'. When you have goodness knows what support behind the perpetrators with infinitesimal amounts of resources ANYTHING is possible.

What would they edit? The operability of the aircraft doesn't seem to in doubt.

Corrupt it... change the altitude... doctor the moment of impact to put the location of the firing in a different place... who knows.
 

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