MH17 Crash In Ukraine. Known info in OP.

[Dotini]

the major governments of the region are the only ones with control over the airspace

Another weird statement. Ukraine did not have control over its airspace. Everyone knew there was a breakaway republic armed with stolen Buk missiles.

A dinky little rocket lands a mile from Ben-Gurion airport at Tel Aviv, then US and European carriers suspend flights there.

At the end of the day, it's quite possible the Ukrainian government could be held responsible for routing commercial airliners over uncontrolled airspace. That's undeniable.

 

[TenEightyOne]

Another weird statement. Ukraine did not have control over its airspace. Everyone knew there was a breakaway republic armed with stolen Buk missiles.

A dinky little rocket lands a mile from Ben-Gurion airport at Tel Aviv, then US and European carriers suspend flights there.

At the end of the day, it's quite possible the Ukrainian government could be held responsible for routing commercial airliners over uncontrolled airspace. That's undeniable.

No, because they weren't ultimately responsible for the routing.

And you're still confusing "airspace" as an unending virtual column, which it isn't. VFR and low-altitude airspace were subject to restrictions and advisories. High Altitude airspace was not. That's not denial or obfuscation, it's simply a fact. Ukrainian ATC only give routings according to international system and convention. No airline had identified a threat in the high-altitude airspace. You keep implying they had without a source.

I also think you're over-estimating the altitude of Ben Gurion airport, I'm pretty sure it's at ground level. Rocket threats to planes on the ground or in STARS/SIDS are much more relevant and likely than the threat posed by flying over a groundwar zone at 32,000ft.

 

[Dotini]

No, because they weren't ultimately responsible for the routing.

Yes, both they and the pilot are responsible for the routing. As I said, time and the courts will tell!

But it may be moot, as the present government of Ukraine has just come apart again.

 

[TenEightyOne]

Yes, both they and the pilot are responsible for the routing. As I said, time and the courts will tell!

But it may be moot, as the present government of Ukraine has just come apart again.

Come on, you're stretching your Devil's Advocacy too far now

They and the pilot are responsible for the routing during the flight, that's absolutely correct. They're not responsible for NOTAMs, news, military intelligence (who'd notably failed to identify any high-altitude threat) and clearly don't know what they don't know.

I can absolutely assure you that no civilian pilot would take that route in the face of a missile threat, absolutely none. They had no knowledge of the threat therefore the question of whether their responsibilities to the flight included an accurate risk-assessment is easy to answer. They didn't know the risk and there's no case against them.

 

[Dotini]

Come on, you're stretching your Devil's Advocacy too far now

They had no knowledge of the threat therefore the question of whether their responsibilities to the flight included an accurate risk-assessment is easy to answer. They didn't know the risk and there's no case against them.

I look forward to your continued true-blue advocacy of the Ukrainian government, the ill-fated airline and its ignorant pilot as time goes on. You are locked in, and I will hold you to it.

Though I fail to see any devil's advocacy on my part. All I've asserted is
- the crash was in the context of a conflict zone
- the rebels played a role
- the government played a role
- the airline and its pilot played a role
- the thing will come to court and money will change hands

 

[TenEightyOne]

I look forward to your continued true-blue advocacy of the Ukrainian government, the ill-fated airline and its ignorant pilot as time goes on.

Though I fail to see any devil's advocacy on my part. All I've asserted is
- the crash was in the context of a conflict zone
- the rebels played a role
- the government played a role
- the airline and its pilot played a role
- the thing will come to court and money will change hands

All those things are true although I'd temper my advocacy of the Ukraini government. But then none of them go to the likelihood of any party secretly knowing about the missile threat.

They'd have to have known secretly, of course, to be able to apportion blame to them in the way that you suggest... the information about the missile system wasn't public until after the incident.

Some might say that the incident was how it was actually discovered.

 

[Dotini]

http://theaviationist.com/2014/07/21/su-27s-escorted-mh17/

Here's something new thrown into the mix.

 

[TenEightyOne]

http://theaviationist.com/2014/07/21/su-27s-escorted-mh17/

Here's something new thrown into the mix.

He starts out by saying they were escorting, then says they weren't.

If they were it's fairly clear that they would have known about the launch and that they would have defended the plane with their own EW/countermeasures.

He also seems definite on the transponder information that the operators "would" have seen.

Really this is just as credible as any forum post, just because he's given his blog a fancy banner doesn't make him the CIA...


EDIT: @Dennisch, do I win something for my analysis of that wreckage piece?

 

[Dotini]

http://www.guerillastocktrading.com...not-releasing-air-traffic-control-recordings/

This source claims the Ukraine government is withholding ATC communications.

 

[TenEightyOne]

http://www.guerillastocktrading.com...not-releasing-air-traffic-control-recordings/

This source claims the Ukraine government is withholding ATC communications.

That makes perfect security-sense, if true. Only a few days ago people were panicking that the FDRs might be tampered with. Why release matching audio data to help hackers out?

Other than that I'm not sure why they would be withheld unless they're considered sub-judice.

 

[Dotini]

http://au.ibtimes.com/articles/5598...-airlines-flight-17-social-media-spammers.htm

Another source says government fighters were escorting MH17.

 

[TenEightyOne]

http://au.ibtimes.com/articles/5598...-airlines-flight-17-social-media-spammers.htm

Another source says government fighters were escorting MH17.

Can you post the text? Firefox is telling me that's a known attack site

Were they actively escorting or, like the previous article that started with a similar claim do they go on to say that the fighters may have been on stand-off?

 

[Exorcet]

Oddly enough the Su-27 offers next to nothing in the way of protection from ground threats. And the MiG-29 is not an attack aircraft as is claimed in the first source.

 

[Dotini]

It says:

An Iranian defense expert opined that the reason why the Malaysian Airlines plane was shot while flying over eastern Ukraine on July 17, Thursday, was because the civilian aircraft was escorted by Ukrainian fighter jets.

Babak Taghvaee wrote to Business Insider that since the start of the Crimean crisis, the Ukrainian Air Force has deployed six Su-27s to provide air defense, particularly while other Ukrainian military jets such as transporters and attackers were in the vicinity.

A day before the shooting of MH 17, the Russia Air Force 5959th AB's MiG-29 shot Ukraine's Su-25M1, leading to the holding of more Su-27 sorties to confront Russian MiG-29s. "I believe they were involved in HAVCAP (High Asset Value Combat Air Patrol) mission sortie in that day," Taghvaee said.

He added, the 831st TAV and Flankers played the same role of escort to civilian planes in the UEFA 2012 and the Sochi Winter Olympics hosted by Russia.

The military expert believes the operator insider the SA-11 Gadfly could read the Boeing 777 altitude and transponder and identify it was a civilian jet that left Amsterdam on its way to Kuala Lumpur, but could have mistaken it for a high-value plane of the Ukrainian Air Force due to the presence of the Flankers.

 

[TenEightyOne]

So this one Iranian guy is being quoted by all the blogs, it seems. Repeating a source doesn't make that source any more valid; who is this guy and how has he got so much more information than anyone else?

 

[Dotini]

So this one Iranian guy is being quoted by all the blogs, it seems. Repeating a source doesn't make that source any more valid; who is this guy and how has he got so much more information than anyone else?

I wish I knew!! More time and investigation may tell more of the pertinent facts. Don't hold your breath.

We do know the Ukraine government is withholding Air Traffic Control dialogue with the flight, Prime Minister Yatsenyuk has just resigned, and the government is breaking up into pieces. Perhaps they do not want to be left holding the bag?

 

[Keef]

http://theaviationist.com/2014/07/21/su-27s-escorted-mh17/

Here's something new thrown into the mix.

That article also says MH17 was flying at FL300 over Ukraine. It wasn't. It was at FL330 (an altitude based on constant barometric pressure roughly equivalent to 33,000 feet under defined "standard" conditions).

That could be a typo given that the author linked to another article of his which states the plane was flying at FL330, and the typo was actually part of the hyperlinked text.

 

[TenEightyOne]

Oddly enough the Su-27 offers next to nothing in the way of protection from ground threats. And the MiG-29 is not an attack aircraft as is claimed in the first source.

Natively, no, it's a pretty tight package (arguably one of the best Soviet fighters ever made, Mig 29's just a pouty poster-boy ) but in an air defense role you'd expect them to be carrying defensive equipment on the hardpoints. It also has a pretty capable downward looking radar which reputedly doesn't miss much.

Otherwise there's little point in having it as a HAVCAP aircraft if it can't actually stop any missiles, normally such aircraft would be prepared specifically for anti-SAM defence of themselves or their charges.

 

[Exorcet]

Firstly I want to say I mixed myself up reading the link before and thought the article was suggesting the 27's were for defense against separatist ground forces. Defense against Russian fighters makes more sense, but I'd think it's still a bit odd for them to flying up to airliners.

Most fighters of the Su-27's generation carry SPJ (self protection hamming), chaff, and flare. SPJ is limited in capability and also has drawbacks that can be exploited, like homing in on the jamming signal. You can use SPJ to protect yourself, but not anyone else, barring any classified modes of operation for the Sorbtsiya (the jamming pod). For that you need dedicated electronic warfare aircraft. The 27 doesn't carry its own ECM either, but uses external pods. There are probably carried as standard by Ukraine though. Other than that, it can only carry R-73 and R-27 air to air missiles or dumb bombs/rockets.

The Su-27's radar has lookdown capability, but this refers to air to air targets. It can pick them out of clutter. It can't see ground targets though. That would require a Su-30, which Ukraine doesn't seem to have. In a HAVCAP role, you could only count on it to deter/intercept fighters. If Ukraine was looking to secure its airspace, I'd think it would make more sense to use SAM's and if they wanted to use fighters, have those orbiting away from the airspace. There really wouldn't be a reason to fly along every airliner passing by, at least I can't think of any. The claim is Russia shot down a Su-25 (was this confirmed, or no?) but apparently they're not lingering the air over Ukraine.

In a combat mission, The Su-27 would ignore all ground threats, leaving that to SEAD aircraft (Su-24/30/34). The anti-SAM measures would just be jamming, chaff, flare.

I wouldn't be too hard on the MiG-29 though, they couldn't afford to make only Su-27's, and Soviet doctrine was numbers and GCI, it wouldn't work without waves of cheaper MiG's.

 

[Dennisch]

If the US can see a missile on the radar, if they ever show us the evidence, I am sure they would be able to see 2 fighter jets in close proximity of MH17?

 

[Dotini]

The claim is Russia shot down a Su-25 (was this confirmed, or no?)

This is a truly great question. How it is answered could mean a great deal.

 

[Exorcet]

If the US can see a missile on the radar, if they ever show us the evidence, I am sure they would be able to see 2 fighter jets in close proximity of MH17?

The missile might be easier to detect because it's a bigger heat source than a jet engine.

Rocket detected at 800 miles (big rocket though), far beyond the distance you're likely to see an aircraft.

 

[Rage Racer]

A phone call has been intercepted between a Pro Russian separatist commander and a Russian Intelligence officer discussing that they thought they had shot down An AN-26 but they realise that they have hit the passenger jet.

I'd replace "A phone call has been intercepted" with "Ukraine claims about intercepting a phone call".
Because geniunity of this conversation is reeeal questionable.

I already posted who is that "Russian intelligence officer". The author of that vid himself is not sure, what's his last name - Geranin or Germanin.

 

[Dennisch]

I'd replace "A phone call has been intercepted" with "Ukraine claims about intercepting a phone call".
Because geniunity of this conversation is reeeal questionable.

I already posted who is that "Russian intelligence officer". The author of that vid himself is not sure, what's his last name - Geranin or Germanin.

It still stands as pretty solid evidence on this side of the news border, so I'll keep it like it is unless/until we see some new, less biased evidence.

 

[LMSCorvetteGT2]

This "photo" is basically a screenshot from a video taken in March - moving of Ukrainian army.

You can see some ice and people in winter clothes here.

The same Buk launcher - number 312 - is on the video taken on March, 5th.

One more thing:
The "intercepted militia's conversation" video by SBU: they call this man a Russian GRU colonel V.Geranin.

But actually, this image shows a retired colonel, candidate of military science, colonel Musa Khamzatov.

Haha, photoshop masters

P.S. I hope it's clear for you that there is no believable evidence yet of DPR's or RF's fault in the crash of MH17.

Why didn't you just do this post to begin with instead of the single photo...

 

[TenEightyOne]

Why didn't you just do this post to begin with instead of the single photo...

He was making the point that there's nothing to see in that picture, it was a trap!!!

He's trapping you again by asking you to believe that the second video shows the same launcher as the first... when there's no way of telling them apart.

Apart from painting a number on the side which is hardly proof

 

[Dennisch]

The second black box, the Flight data recorder has also not been tampered with. Or at least they can't find any evidence of tampering.

 

[TenEightyOne]

The second black box, the Flight data recorder has also not been tampered with. Or at least they can't find any evidence of tampering.

Good to hear. If there's no evidence of tampering there's no tampering, it really isn't that simple, at least not in the time that they've had.

 

[Keef]

If the US can see a missile on the radar, if they ever show us the evidence, I am sure they would be able to see 2 fighter jets in close proximity of MH17?

I don't believe it was seen on radar, but by satellite infrared imagery.

 

[andrea]