North Korea, Sanctions, and Kim Jong-un

[Emptyone]

Kim's words are wind. It's half psychological warfare and half domestic politics.
Outwardly, the peninsula is at peace. No bullets are flying anywhere.
There have been no unusual movements of North Korean troops.
Routine commerce between North and South is still proceeding as usual at this hour.

The North Korean Army is also an army of peasant farmers, in that they raise many of their own crops and livestock. April 15 is the beginning of their planting season, so if they are planning on both a war and on eating, they will have to finish the war before the 15th. It ain't gonna happen.

Respectfully submitted,
Steve

True, but this tends to exceed normal bluster, even for North Korea. Though as you say, it's just outward manoeuvring, you have to look good being Dear Leader as opposed to sitting back. Making an actual war effort is a whole different kettle of fish.

The war could very well be over by the 15th they started it, but not for the right reasons from their perspective

 

[Mercdriver]

Even if North Korea used a nuclear weapon again South Korea, I highly doubt the US would step in with nuclear weapons of their own. That would make for a diplomatic nightmare.

Yeah that would, but they're allied with the South and thus the South Koreans would prefer to have some assistance plus some exchange back at the north

 

[DK]

Not really. It's one of the most technologically advanced armies in the world, but the JSDF is not internationally recognized as a standing army & has never been deployed overseas until recently for peacekeeping operations instead of frontline combat. The only thing Japan's military does is serve as a defensive force against other countries invading, hence why the only "combat" Japan regularly sees is against China & the dispute over the territorial islands.

Also, Japan's constitution (drawn up after its defeat in WW2) prevents Japan from declaring war on another state.

 

[tronrider345]

*I didn't read the 20 pages*


So Kimmy told he was going to attack Seul and Hawai , declaring war at US and South Korea.

South Korea has Gangnam Style and US just need to make a Nagazaki Bomb 2.0, not deploy tropers to Hawai, Kimmy is going to lauch rockets possibly no?

 

[Dotini]

...this tends to exceed normal bluster...

Youth always wants to exceed what their predecessors have done. In the case of Kim's father, that wouldn't be too hard, and it's happening fast.

But underneath all their (to us) comical outer bluster, the Northerners are a dour, hard people, obsessively devoted to their own reclusive ways and their precious security. Everything they do (they think) is carefully considered to ensure their own survival. In other words, we believe they are rational, and will not purposefully choose the course of suicide.

Respectfully,
Steve

 

[Lizard]

This was on a joke twitter account.

Warning: if I am provoked, I will PhotoShop a nuclear attack on the U.S.

 

[Emptyone]

Youth always wants to exceed what their predecessors have done. In the case of Kim's father, that wouldn't be too hard, and it's happening fast.

That's sort of what I was getting at, exactly.

But underneath all their (to us) comical outer bluster, the Northerners are a dour, hard people, obsessively devoted to their own reclusive ways and their precious security. Everything they do (they think) is carefully considered to ensure their own survival. In other words, we believe they are rational, and will not purposefully choose the course of suicide.

Respectfully,
Steve

I agree with this too, but I would add it's the the survival of their way of life which is important to them. We would indeed hope there is rational thinking, and all it is empty threats.

 

[lbsf1]

I agree with this too, but I would add it's the the survival of their way of life which is important to them. We would indeed hope there is rational thinking, and all it is empty threats.

The question is how loyal are the people to their leader?? If they are completely loyal to him and the regime then they may all lay down their lives to protect him. This would make the "army" the largest in history and if war commenced then it would not be pretty, if they would rather die then surrender then the war could (would) be very horrific. Or even since there is that number of people then an invasion of South Korea could be possible and doable simply because the other option is the largest mass killing in the history of the human race (the Americans having to kill every North Korean citizen.)

Conventional logic does not apply when talking about indoctrinated people and a regime like this.

 

[Emptyone]

The question is how loyal are the people to their leader?? If they are completely loyal to him and the regime then they may all lay down their lives to protect him. This would make the "army" the largest in history and if war commenced then it would not be pretty, if they would rather die then surrender then the war could (would) be very horrific. Or even since there is that number of people then an invasion of South Korea could be possible and doable simply because the other option is the largest mass killing in the history of the human race (the Americans having to kill every North Korean citizen.)

Conventional logic does not apply when talking about indoctrinated people and a regime like this.

Propaganda can turn an entire nation into one belief, you can just look at Nazi Germany for example. But not sure how far North Korea us towards that. Plus they're still humans, some if them are selfish enough to want to survive, ignoring commands above.

 

[lbsf1]

Propaganda can turn an entire nation into one belief, you can just look at Nazi Germany for example. But not sure how far North Korea us towards that. Plus they're still humans, some if them are selfish enough to want to survive, ignoring commands above.

Remember that Hitler was only in power for 6 years before the start of WW2, in North Korea the regime has been in power for 50 years. Also the North Korean regime is far more extreme then Germany's.

I wouldn't be surprised if 99.9% of the people were indoctrinated to the extent of being prepared to die for the cause. You also have to remember that Asian troops tend to be more prepared to fight to the death anyway (think Vietnam and WW2 Japanese) then Western troops are.

 

[watermelon punch]

In other words, we believe they are rational, and will not purposefully choose the course of suicide.

I gave up on the idea of influential people with power being rational and most likely to act in the interests of their own survival -- let alone the long term survival of their society, or even civilization. History, including recent times, has demonstrated that in a varying multitude of situations, tragedy from hubris is usually the more common story that plays out, over and over again.

 

[Emptyone]

Remember that Hitler was only in power for 6 years before the start of WW2, in North Korea the regime has been in power for 50 years. Also the North Korean regime is far more extreme then Germany's.

I wouldn't be surprised if 99.9% of the people were indoctrinated to the extent of being prepared to die for the cause. You also have to remember that Asian troops tend to be more prepared to fight to the death anyway (think Vietnam and WW2 Japanese) then Western troops are.

True, but as far as numbers go, it's speculation, the whole thing is unsubstantiated speculation.

The Japanese were witness to propaganda too, and the Vietnamese hated the Americans, as they stood to defend the rich Catholic land owners living in and oppressing the South Vietnamese before the war. I'm not sure that quantifiable either, being more likely to fight to the death.

 

[Joey D]

Yeah that would, but they're allied with the South and thus the South Koreans would prefer to have some assistance plus some exchange back at the north

The US would attack North Korea if they were to attack South Korea, but it would be with conventional bombs and missile, not nuclear weapons. I mean the US could shove some Tomahawks up Kim Jung's backside pretty easily, then fly in with stealth aircraft and finish off the rest of the targets.

 

[Exorcet]

I kind of wonder if the bombers aren't there already.

 

[prisonermonkeys]

I mean the US could shove some Tomahawks up Kim Jung's backside pretty easily, then fly in with stealth aircraft and finish off the rest of the targets.

They could, but they won't.

If ever the Americans got drawn into a war with the North, their priority would be protecting the South. They'd have to hit every missile battery and artillery position along the Demilitarised Zone before they could even think of moving on Pyongyang. If they just went straight for Kim, the North Koreans would likely start attacking Seoul. They've been threatening to do it for sixty years of relative peace; to not do it during a time of war would likely damage Kim's standing in the North.

If it came down to it, I'd say that a war would likely involve the systematic targeting of the North's artillery and rocket forces. Completely remove their ability to attack the South. Then target any airfield with a runway large enough for a bomber carrying a nuclear device to take off, to make it impossible for said bomber to take off, rendering the bombs useless. Leave Pyongyang itself alone, to demonstrate to Kim that pursuing a nuclear device did absolutely nothing for him.

 

[Grayfox]

I kind of wonder if the bombers aren't there already.

They are, some stealth bombers were seen over Seoul.

 

[prisonermonkeys]

Those were the B-2 bombers America sent as part of their annual military drills with the South. They flew out from the mainland, did some dummy bombing runs over the South, and then refuelled and returned home.

America is being very careful not to do anything that might be interpreted as aggressive by the North, because that might inadvertently provoke them into starting a war. Given that they're being very mindful of how loudly they are breathing while in the South, stationing bombers there would likely send the North over the edge.

 

[1241Penguin]

America is being very careful not to do anything that might be interpreted as aggressive by the North, because that might inadvertently provoke them into starting a war. Given that they're being very mindful of how loudly they are breathing while in the South, stationing bombers there would likely send the North over the edge.

If I'm not mistaken, the flying of the B-2s over South Korea is exactly what North Korea thinks of as being aggressive.

 

[Exorcet]

Those bombers were meant to be seen. There wouldn't be any reaction faster than that from a bomber orbiting 100 miles, or maybe 10's of miles away from North Korea.

However, the risk of triggering action from the North is probably something the US really wants to avoid. Even if NK can't do much to the US, they'll probably be able to make a mess in South Korea as has been stated.

 

[prisonermonkeys]

If I'm not mistaken, the flying of the B-2s over South Korea is exactly what North Korea thinks of as being aggressive.

Yeah, but they knew it was coming. America runs military drills with the South around this time every year. America had to go through with those drills, even though the North announced that doing so would be considered an act of war, because fialing to do so would mean reinforcing the North's confidence.

No, I mean that if America were to station or redeploy those bombers to the South. That would, in all likelihood, send the North over the edge.

 

[Prodriver13]

 

[a6m5]

Money in the bank.

 

[xXKingJoshXx]

That gif is awesome. Not a fan of gifs but that made me LOL!

 

[Lizard]

Propaganda can turn an entire nation into one belief, you can just look at Nazi Germany for example. But not sure how far North Korea us towards that. Plus they're still humans, some if them are selfish enough to want to survive, ignoring commands above.

In Nazi Germany it failed spectacularly. People still resisted it.

For example the Jewish. Some people saw them as odd but the majority opposed killing them.

Example. Kristallnacht. The public hated the fact that all these Jewish people had their property smashed up and the leadership had to give in and make the Jewish policies more secret.

The problem with the Nazi's was mostly no one wanted to get involved. As long as they weren't the ones or their families getting arrested they just wanted to continue life as normal.


The way NK is run is similar. Like when Kim Jong Il died. Everyone cried but you could tell they didn't really care they just didn't want to break the social norm.

 

[Emptyone]

In Nazi Germany it failed spectacularly. People still resisted it.

For example the Jewish. Some people saw them as odd but the majority opposed killing them.

Example. Kristallnacht. The public hated the fact that all these Jewish people had their property smashed up and the leadership had to give in and make the Jewish policies more secret.

The problem with the Nazi's was mostly no one wanted to get involved. As long as they weren't the ones or their families getting arrested they just wanted to continue life as normal.

The way NK is run is similar. Like when Kim Jong Il died. Everyone cried but you could tell they didn't really care they just didn't want to break the social norm.

Well yeah, but in terms of the war effort, the general (I'm using general pretty loosely here) populace had been coerced into agreeing with the war, partly by propaganda, and partly by threat as you say, no one wants to stand out when standing out means death.

I made that post whilst tired, trust a history student to pick me up on it

I'd be more inclined to believe it was sticking with what everyone else is doing is what the North Korean citizens did, rather than openly weeping. Just look at the state images.

They're not exactly thrilled to be in his company indeed.

 

[a6m5]

North Korean camera.

Say cheese! Just kidding, we don't have any.

 

[Dan_]

Giving this thread a quick glance is what brings me here everyday.

Brilliant.

 

[Lizard]

Well yeah, but in terms of the war effort, the general (I'm using general pretty loosely here) populace had been coerced into agreeing with the war, partly by propaganda, and partly by threat as you say, no one wants to stand out when standing out means death.

The main thing that led Germans to agree with the war was a combination of the belief they were never defeated in WW1 and the leadership bottled it and the fact they were winning.

When they started losing Hitler made defeatist attitudes illegal literally.

I made that post whilst tired, trust a history student to pick me up on it

You're welcome.

 

[Nicksfix]

First it was the presence of B-2's that pissed Jong off and he put N.K. on high alert. Now I wonder what the little man will say with the presence of F-22's flying around in the area.

Article

 

[Downhill Dino]

That will only further the tension.... completely unnecessary.