North Korea, Sanctions, and Kim Jong-un

[Hyped]

It's a scheduled military drill though, it's not like they're just doing it for 🤬 and giggles. Like somebody here said, doing it will cause tension, but not doing it will cause the North to gain confidence.

 

[terminator363]

Who cares, a war with the North will end in the United States and South Korea liberating them in a few hours. No harm done really, I doubt there would be casualties on the South Korean and American side either.

 

[MarinaDiamandis]

Who cares, a war with the North will end in the United States and South Korea liberating them in a few hours. No harm done really, I doubt there would be casualties on the South Korean and American side either.

Except thousands of South Korean civilian deaths and ever more injured.

 

[1241Penguin]

Except thousands of South Korean civilian deaths and ever more injured.

Yeah, SK and the US probably won't strike back until NK makes the first move. Chances are that first move could result in many casualties.

 

[Downhill Dino]

It's a scheduled military drill though, it's not like they're just doing it for 🤬 and giggles. Like somebody here said, doing it will cause tension, but not doing it will cause the North to gain confidence.

Who's to say there's any confidence? If there's no stresser, there's no actions. With the relations the North has with the U.S., as long as the U.S. doesn't do a thing, there won't be a problem. The North is no longer the instigator.

 

[prisonermonkeys]

That will only further the tension.... completely unnecessary.

I'm not so sure. The decision to send those fighter jets is not one that would have been taken lightly. The United States would have very carefully considered their response to the North's aggression and would be aiming for something that would not be perceived as provoking Pyongyang, but at the same time, would not be encouraging them.

It's a scheduled military drill though, it's not like they're just doing it for 🤬 and giggles.

I was under the impression that the Foal Eagle exercises were over; that the B-2 bombers flying over the Peninsula were it. Evidently, I was wrong, and in retrospect, I should have realised; these are annual joint exercises, and likely to go on for at least a week. However, going by that Reuters article Nicksfix linked to, it appears that the F-22 Raptors were a last-minute addition to the exsercise, perhaps in response to the North's latest round of aggression.

 

[Müle]

Who cares, a war with the North will end in the United States and South Korea liberating them in a few hours. No harm done really, I doubt there would be casualties on the South Korean and American side either.

I really hope you're not serious. It wont be *that* easy.

 

[prisonermonkeys]

War never is. And if anything, a complacent attitude like that is only going to result in more deaths.

Besides, the United States will not attack North Korea unless they feel that the North is about to imminently start something of their own. There are laws governing when a war would be considered legal, and by breaking those laws, the United States would only validate the North's claims.

The person who has a real problem here is Kim Jong-un. Most of his threats have been intended to consolidate his power and present him as a strong leader to the people of North Korea. But there is only so far his threats can go before he either a) runs out of threats to make, or b) has to make good on them to retain his position; whichever one comes first. At the same time, he can't fire the first shots, because doing so would inevitably result in his destruction, though whether or not he is aware of this is open to debate.

 

[terminator363]

Yeah, SK and the US probably won't strike back until NK makes the first move.

Obviously

Except thousands of South Korean civilian deaths and ever more injured.

Chances are that first move could result in many casualties.

Not unless the US and South Korea's missile defense system isn't as good as they say it is. It is apparently very similar to Israel's "Iron Dome". If that's the case, the South shouldn't worry all that much. As demonstrated during the Gaza raid, very few missiles actually penetrated the defensive system. South Korea seems concerned with it's citizens and could possibly evacuate populated areas if the situation takes a turn for the worst.

And yes I am aware my previous post was generalizing the conflict greatly.

 

[1241Penguin]

Not unless the US and South Korea's missile defense system isn't as good as they say it is. It is apparently very similar to Israel's "Iron Dome". If that's the case, the South shouldn't worry all that much. As demonstrated during the Gaza raid, very few missiles actually penetrated the defensive system. South Korea seems concerned with it's citizens and could possibly evacuate populated areas if the situation takes a turn for the worst.

And yes I am aware my previous post was generalizing the conflict greatly.

Very few is still some. And anyway, how much time have you got between knowing NK is going to attack and NK actually attacking? (legitimate question)

 

[arora]

SK remains prepared on a daily basis, that is how it is. Whatever the extent of the U.S. involvement, we remain prepared as well. One moment to the next is not a critical factor.

 

[prisonermonkeys]

The South is having none of the North's antics, stating that any provocation will be met with "a strong response" with no consideration given to political consequences until after the fact:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-04-...rong-response-to-n-korean-provocation/4603706

 

[terminator363]

Very few is still some. And anyway, how much time have you got between knowing NK is going to attack and NK actually attacking? (legitimate question)

Compared to the combined arsenal of the western powers, NK doesn't stand a chance, sure their first, oh I don't know 20 rockets via katyushas and missile trucks will actually take flight, SK's defense should block them all. And if the US is fast enough, it will stop the North Korean bombardment from going on any further via deadly force (however that may be)

 

[prisonermonkeys]

South Korea seems concerned with it's citizens and could possibly evacuate populated areas if the situation takes a turn for the worst.

Uh, where would they be evacuated to?

South Korea has a population of fifty million people.

North Korea has the capacity to hit targets as far away as Japan.

So how, exactly, could South Korea relocate all of its people to somewhere outside the range of the North's missiles on short notice?

 

[terminator363]

Uh, where would they be evacuated to?

South Korea has a population of fifty million people.

North Korea has the capacity to hit targets as far away as Japan.

So how, exactly, could South Korea relocate all of its people to somewhere outside the range of the North's missiles on short notice?

Run for the hills? I suppose you've got me there, but I doubt SK would leave it to that.

 

[prisonermonkeys]

Compared to the combined arsenal of the western powers, NK doesn't stand a chance, sure their first, oh I don't know 20 rockets via katyushas and missile trucks will actually take flight, SK's defense should block them all. And if the US is fast enough, it will stop the North Korean bombardment from going on any further via deadly force (however that may be)

I'm afraid it's not that simple, either. The United States and the South aren't just going to obliterate the North at the first sign that the North are going to attack.

You have to keep in mind what the North want: they want to be taken seriously in the region. They want more and more decisions being made by the international community based on what is good for them. They can't get that if they don't exist anymore. They also want the United States to disappear, or to at least back down and stop involving themselves in Korean affairs. Again, they can't get that if they don't exist anymore. And if it comes to blows, they will likely spin whatever happens into a tale where they emerge victorious. It will likely be accompanied by tales of Kim Jong-un standing on a mountaintop to face the incoming American invaders, and the pilots of their sophisticated fighter jets trembling so hard at the sight of Kim swarthed in divine light that all of their missiles miss their targets and the pilots turn around and fly home as quickly as they can with their tails between their legs.

If the North does attack, it's probably not going to be a full assault from the first minute. They'll likely dance around the edges, hitting soft targets - like uninhabited islands, the way they did in 2010 - that will reaffirm Kim's position without provoking much of a response. They may be a little bolder, so as to gauge the kind of response the South and the Americans give, but they'll probably avoid the loss of life if they can. The South and the Americans will likely respond in kind, showing their disapproval and refusing to be cowed into backing down, but at the same time, restraining their response so as not to give the North an excuse to hit back.

The real danger in all of this is the North's nuclear arsenal. It's believed that they don't have the ability to deliver them with missiles, but the sheer fact that they have a nuclear device or six lying around has emboldened them. They're threatening to attack American military bases and the mainland directly, and even if it's an empty threat, the fact that they're making it at all sets a dangerous precedent. I'm not aware of them ever having threatened to attack American interests directly, and certainly not making those threats whilst at the same time declaring themselves to be in a state of war. I think the stakes are a lot higher this time around; certainly higher than they have been in the past decade, and possibly higher than they ever have been before.

 

[arora]

Wall of gibberish.

This is all old hat, if by some chance NK does something with a nuke we will destroy them. No one wants that and whatever they are thinking of in a conventional sense is not going to help their cause.

They are not stupid or confused or lost, there is a good road for them to travel once they decide to take it. They will take it as well, this is just silly posturing and such.

 

[prisonermonkeys]

This is all old hat, if by some chance NK does something with a nuke we will destroy them.

Once again, you demonstrate that you don't even bother to read my posts in their entirety. Where did I say that the North would use a nuclear device?

Because I didn't.

EDIT: Silly me. I forgot that you're unique qualified to assess the North's nuclear capabilities, since you spent all that time doing nuclear preparedness drills in high school. You're still yet to explain what that has to do with anything here, by the way.

 

[arora]

Elementary school actually 👍

 

[prisonermonkeys]

It still has absolutely nothing to do with North Korea. Claiming that it does is about as effective an argument as hiding under a desk is to avoid a nuclear blast.

 

[Lizard]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-21995224


The best bit though.

Meanwhile, North Korea has announced it has appointed a new premier, Pak Pong-ju. He was sacked from the same post in 2007.

 

[terminator363]

I'm just curious, but would the North attempt to slip a device into a suit case and blow it up terrorist style in a South Korean subway station? Or would they try to strap it to a missile? Seriously, if you look at how maniacal they are I wouldn't be surprised if they pulled off some really crude attacks to try and get their point across. They wouldn't risk an attack because it would mean annihilation.

 

[Lizard]

I'm just curious, but would the North attempt to slip a device into a suit case and blow it up terrorist style in a South Korean subway station? Or would they try to strap it to a missile? Seriously, if you look at how maniacal they are I wouldn't be surprised if they pulled off some really crude attacks to try and get their point across. They wouldn't risk an attack because it would mean annihilation.

You mean like BF3 nuke style?

If they made it small enough their agents could do it. I mean if they managed to kidnap Japanese people and take them back surely they can get a suitcase on a train.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Korean_abductions_of_Japanese

 

[MarinaDiamandis]

Not unless the US and South Korea's missile defense system isn't as good as they say it is. It is apparently very similar to Israel's "Iron Dome". If that's the case, the South shouldn't worry all that much. As demonstrated during the Gaza raid, very few missiles actually penetrated the defensive system.

Most of the threat to Seoul comes from artillery in the form of guns, not rocket and missile launchers. I don't know of any defence system in the world capable of taking out 2-3 shells per minute from thousands of artillery pieces.

I'm just curious, but would the North attempt to slip a device into a suit case and blow it up terrorist style in a South Korean subway station? Or would they try to strap it to a missile? Seriously, if you look at how maniacal they are I wouldn't be surprised if they pulled off some really crude attacks to try and get their point across. They wouldn't risk an attack because it would mean annihilation.

So they wouldn't risk an attack but would use a nuclear device? Makes sense.
It's not as easy as strapping a warhead to an already-existing missile, although i'd guess that if N.K are going to use a nuke, it's going to arrive via unscheduled air mail.

I highly doubt they'd use a lower-yield device in a terrorist-style attack because it is the act of using a nuclear device that will get them in deep bother, no matter how big it is or much damage it does. You can also add the fact that they'd be harming innocent civilians to that.

Not that N.K has the technology to miniaturise a nuclear device, mind.

 

[Lizard]

Oh this is funny.

http://www.newyorker.com/online/blo...n-to-stop-threatening-world-on-weekends.html#

April fools NK style.

 

[Dan_]

The real danger in all of this is the North's nuclear arsenal. It's believed that they don't have the ability to deliver them with missiles, but the sheer fact that they have a nuclear device or six lying around has emboldened them. They're threatening to attack American military bases and the mainland directly, and even if it's an empty threat, the fact that they're making it at all sets a dangerous precedent.

Agree on all counts.

Honestly, I understand and value the patient and cautios rationale the US has been using, but NK can't get away with all the situation they spurred, China has to rethink about the oil supply they maintain with NK. If Beijing ever wants to be recognized as a partner of the West they should embrace the UN politics and side against NK, not pretend they're Switzerland. Sanctions apply were they're due, and Kim's pathethic agenda earned his.

 

[MarinaDiamandis]

China has to rethink about the oil supply they maintain with NK. If Beijing ever wants to be recognized as a partner of the West they should embrace the UN politics and side against NK, not pretend they're Switzerland. Sanctions apply were they're due, and Kim's pathethic agenda earned his.

You can't just cut off their oil supply, you'd risk throwing innocent North Koreans into a situation even worse than they're already in. Kim may be acting like a 🤬, but that doesn't mean you treat the country and all of it's people like a lost cause.

 

[Lizard]

Agree on all counts.

Honestly, I understand and value the patient and cautios rationale the US has been using, but NK can't get away with all the situation they spurred, China has to rethink about the oil supply they maintain with NK. If Beijing ever wants to be recognized as a partner of the West they should embrace the UN politics and side against NK, not pretend they're Switzerland. Sanctions apply were they're due, and Kim's pathethic agenda earned his.

Beijing doesn't want to be with the west. They want western trade so they too can become a super power. Once that happens I see a new Chinese USSR coming about.

 

[Dan_]

You can't just cut off their oil supply, you'd risk throwing innocent North Koreans into a situation even worse than they're already in. Kim may be acting like a 🤬, but that doesn't mean you treat the country and all of it's people like a lost cause.

I agree, civilians should not suffer from the stupidity of their leaders.

I didn't propose cutting it off, sorry if I worded it to sound like that, China has to use it as an influential factor on the NK politics. They can have a louder voice within NK, but apparently they do not want it.

The way I see it is that NK is puppet state that went out of control, as much as I dislike US external politics, China is just sitting there and letting the US get it's hands dirty and get the job done. If they are to be considered a full fledged superpower, they should be more vocal on the issue.

Beijing doesn't want to be with the west. They want western trade so they too can become a super power. Once that happens I see a new Chinese USSR coming about.

They don't, but they need right now. Dissuading themselves from NK shall help win support from the rising east asian powers, like Indonesia and Vietnam and open the gates of the West even more to their interests.

It is just personal opinion, but I believe it would be a wise political move.

 

[MisterWhiskers]

Not being friends with great economy and military powers like the US and UK is a big problem. My country Kosovo barely can withstand, but with help from countries like those, life is way easier.