North Korea, Sanctions, and Kim Jong-un

[prisonermonkeys]

The North is restoring its Yongbyon nuclear facility to be fully operational:

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/new...-nuclear-reactor/story-e6frg6so-1226611104050

 

[McLaren]

I'm just curious, but would the North attempt to slip a device into a suit case and blow it up terrorist style in a South Korean subway station? Or would they try to strap it to a missile? Seriously, if you look at how maniacal they are I wouldn't be surprised if they pulled off some really crude attacks to try and get their point across. They wouldn't risk an attack because it would mean annihilation.

It's a pretty known point that the US won't let the North attack the South without intervening heavily, so the North trying to attack through terrorism & catch the South completely off guard will easily anger the US & any other allies.

Countries have enough terrorist groups to worry about without another nation actually attacking in such a way as well. A country that supports & declares war through terrorist strategies will find itself alone.

 

[watermelon punch]

Oh this is funny.

http://www.newyorker.com/online/blo...n-to-stop-threatening-world-on-weekends.html#

April fools NK style.

Love borowitz report ordinarily, but that's a really good one.

I'm just curious, but would the North attempt to slip a device into a suit case and blow it up terrorist style in a South Korean subway station? Or would they try to strap it to a missile? Seriously, if you look at how maniacal they are I wouldn't be surprised if they pulled off some really crude attacks to try and get their point across. They wouldn't risk an attack because it would mean annihilation.

I'd thought about this. But the issue I think that's pertinent, is that people or groups who engage in terrorist style attacks, generally see themselves (accurately or wrongly is beside the point) as "underdogs" or that sort of thing.

I think Kim Jong Un would much rather see himself as a BIG POWER somehow... and that might be enough to restrain from anything too crude or random.

Maybe I'm WAY OFF on this. I'm sure no expert on the matter.

Just seems to me that Kim Jong Un is all about superficial presentation & ego of some grand scale, more than pulling off some crude half baked point maker that's not going to be worth the effort or consequences.

 

[Nicksfix]

The North is restoring its Yongbyon nuclear facility to be fully operational:

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/new...-nuclear-reactor/story-e6frg6so-1226611104050

Yup ... just seen this in an Reuters article. (article and video). I believe it's unlikely that they will get this thing fully functional though. The U.N. and the U.S. won't allow it to happen. Also from the aforementioned article, more U.S. muscle flexing ?

The Pentagon, meanwhile, said another U.S. guided-missile destroyer had taken position in the western Pacific to assist with missile defense, as tensions rise over North Korea's threats against the United States and its ally, South Korea.

The U.S. has given a warning to N.K. about their reckless provocations (article).

John Kerry : from the article.

"The bottom line very simply is that what Kim Jong-Un has been choosing to do is provocative, it is dangerous, reckless, and the United States will not accept the DPRK as a nuclear state,"

"The United States will do what is necessary to defend us and ourselves and our allies," he said. "We are fully prepared and capable of doing so and the DPRK understands that."

 

[Slash]

This could get very ugly....

 

[MarinaDiamandis]

This could get very ugly....

Enough of your gay foolishness, sinner.

What is Kim going to do, eat the nuke then fart it in the general direction of the U.S and hope for a strong gale?

 

[prisonermonkeys]

It's more likely that the UN Security Council will meet and agree that North Korea's plans for an expanded nuclear arsenal represent such a serious threat that a military intervention would be justified.

That might sound like an extreme scenario, and it is. But North Korea have nuclear weapons, they have the ability to launch satellites into orbit, and they have threatened to attack the US mainland. If ever they were to marry all three and create an ICBM, then they'd stop being a threat to South Korea and start being a threat to everyone. They're square in the middle of the single greatest concentration of population on the face in the earth. Even if they would be unlikely to target some of these cities, they would theoretically be able to reach Tokyo, Guangzhou, Seoul, Jakarta, Shanghai, Delhi, Karachi, Mumbai, Manila, Osaka, Beijing, Kolkata, Dhaka, Bangkok, Shenzen and Tianjin - over three billion people. And that's just counting the population of the cities themselves. More than half the world's population would live within targeting range of a rogue nation with a leader who gets more and more unstable as he gets more and more confident. And on top of that, North Korea has along memory when it comes to enemies. They've hated the United States for six decades; do you think they're going to forget all of the nations that imposed sanctions on them so quickly?

So you can understand why the United Nations would be keen to pull North Korea back in line before then. Nobody wants to resort to a military option, but when push comes to shove, it might be the only option.

 

[arora]

What is going to happen then Prisonermonkey?

 

[JvM]

Whole world is DOOMED, thanks to one fat kid who likes cakes.

 

[Grand Prix]

Yep. Doom-cakes.

 

[a6m5]

Bill Clinton chickened out of bombing the facility, but now that talks has failed, repeatedly, would Obama take it out?

 

[prisonermonkeys]

What is going to happen then Prisonermonkey?

Another stalemate, with the immediate threat ending, but not abating as North Korea's threats taper off and Kim comvincing his people that he won a great victory. Sucha good time will be had that everyone agrees to come back again next year and do it all over again.

 

[Matty]

Agree with prisonermonkeys on this one.

Every year North Korea make threats and the U.S. Army prepares for battle, then North Korea shut up until the next year. And due to the UN the US can't attack first without breaking some worldwide peace treaty or something like that. The US can only react, and I suspect if anything were to happen it would be in self defence to NK preparing missiles for launch or something similar.

May be wrong on some or all things in that but it's just my view on it.

 

[lbsf1]

Hmmn, well this is a strange tactic if they arn't planning violence. The plant makes NK lots of money and shutting it down isn't something they would want to do.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-22011207

 

[prisonermonkeys]

And due to the UN the US can't attack first without breaking some worldwide peace treaty or something like that.

Actually, the UN can do something about it - if every member of the Security Council agrees that North Korea poses a serious threat to regional or global stability, then they can come up with a resolution that would allow for military intervention. It would effectively be a "legal" war, but all fifteen member nations would have to agree upon it. The tricky part would be convincing China and Russia to agree to it; as permament members of the Secuity Council, both of them get a right to veto every vote, so even if everyone else is in favour of it, they can both kill it off.

Since the North rely on China so much, China would probably veto any resolution allowing for a military intervention. Of course, they recently voted in favour of some of the toughest sanctions on the North when they traditionally abstain from voting to give the North a shoulder to cry on afterwards, putting them in a position to coax Pyongyang into complying with the rest of the world's wishes. That said, it would take a lot to convince China to vote in favour of military action - they would have to believe that the North had nuclear weapons aimed at their cities and/or that any nuclear device used would affect China (which it almost certainly would, even if it's aimed at Japan or South Korea).

Hmmn, well this is a strange tactic if they arn't planning violence. The plant makes NK lots of money and shutting it down isn't something they would want to do.

I'd say their aim is to try and put economic pressure on the South. The South Korean government and various companies have invested a combined total of just short of one billion dollars (US) in the Kaesong plant. The North wants to make them malleable, and probably hope that putting pressure on the economy will mold Seoul to its will.

 

[lbsf1]

I'd say their aim is to try and put economic pressure on the South. The South Korean government and various companies have invested a combined total of just short of one billion dollars (US) in the Kaesong plant. The North wants to make them malleable, and probably hope that putting pressure on the economy will mold Seoul to its will.

The closing of the plant is much more significant to NK though, the South has many large corporations so the closing of this plant effects their economy very little, however for the North this is a huge part of their international economy.

 

[prisonermonkeys]

True, but when has Pyongyang ever been accused of sound economic management?

The effects of this aren't going to be felt by the North for a while. The Kaesong complex will continue to operate; the only difference is that the South will be unable to supply workers or materials. Eventually those materials will run out, but for now, they can continue without problems.

 

[Famine]

Bill Clinton chickened out of bombing the facility, but now that talks has failed, repeatedly, would Obama take it out?

The guy who drone strikes his own citizens and friendly nations? I'm surprised he hasn't already.

Yung-Un is playing the same game Sung-Il and Il-Yong played. Ramp up the posturing and gain a bargaining chip for reduced sanctions/increased aid you can report as the evil US backing down from brave North Korea. They're playing UN Poker, only they've brought their own cards to draw out and bluff with - and they've only got the card that shows the rules of bridge.


Closing the border to the industrial complex means the South now has to threaten military action to get its citizens back. If the South attacks, the North can "defend itself" or it can play the victim to the UN.

 

[prisonermonkeys]

Closing the border to the industrial complex means the South now has to threaten military action to get its citizens back. If the South attacks, the North can "defend itself" or it can play the victim to the UN.

It's a wonder the UN would buy into that, given everything that has transpired so far. I know they want to avoid a conflict at all costs, but the problem with that is that the cost is enabling North Korea and inevitably drawing everyone back into this mess once more at some indeterminate point in the future, with the only difference being higher stakes for all involved.

The world has tolerated the North's behaviour and been far too lenient with Pyongyang for far too long. And what do we have to show for it? North Korea has nuclear weapons - maybe a decade or two later than they would have if they had been free to pursue them on their own, but the fact remains that they are now a nuclear state when they never should have been allowed to get those weapons in the first place.

And what is the likely solution of all of this? Bartering down to a state where the North gives up their nuclear capabilities in exchange for aid and the relaxing of sanctions? That's not a solution. The government will continue to oppress its people, and, having been enabled by the international community, will inevitably force us all back to the bargaining table in a few years' time, only this time with the ability to fire ballistic missiles and deliver nuclear warheads to three billion people on a whim.

I'm not saying that military action is needed here. Far from it. Just that we have the opportunity to teach North Korea a lesson that should have been taught a decade (or more) ago. And if it comes down to it an military intervention is the only way forward, then world leaders shouldn't shirk at the idea - because then North Korea wins.

 

[Famine]

Indeed - it won't happen though. The UN's all about the appeasement. I'm not even sure they'd intervene in 1938's Germany...

Last time it was "Oh, you're enriching Uranium? We'll give you some food if you stop.". They'd already made enough U/Pu to make six or so tiddly nukes - three of which they've since blown up. Yung-un is just a kid with no experience, so he's copying his dad by restarting the plant.

Of course it'll take a while before it starts being useful again, so in the meantime he can do something more immediate like holding South Koreans hostage by closing borders as part of a declaration of war, without the need to actually hold them hostage... SoKo will then threaten military action, the UN will vacillate and NoKo will give them passage in exchange for aid/relaxed sanctions.

 

[prisonermonkeys]

Except that he's not holding them hostage - those who wish to leave the plant are being allowed to go. For now, the North is only blocking access to the factories from the South.

 

[Famine]

Technically - but the workers rely on the supply trucks coming in from the South as their transport. The trucks are not permitted to cross the border to the North, so they have no transport back.

They could just walk it - it's only 6 miles - but with the two countries now being in a state of war and the North's record of kidnapping South Koreans, they could quite reasonably fear indefinite detention.

 

[Dotini]

http://original.antiwar.com/justin/2013/04/02/explaining-north-korea/
From my favorite libertarian website, a persuasive analysis citing internal politics as the primary source of the current North Korean fuss.

Respectfully submitted,
Steve

 

[CodeRedR51]

http://news.sky.com/story/1073563/n-korea-warns-of-merciless-nuclear-strike

Should we be worried?

 

[Slash]

Enough of your gay foolishness, sinner.

What is Kim going to do, eat the nuke then fart it in the general direction of the U.S and hope for a strong gale?

I was more or less implying the US getting heavily involved. We have better places to spend our money. The threat is real yes, but the US is smart enough not to make the first move. Or I hope.

 

[Ranman20]

So should I be calm or afraid now. I'm calm at the moment but my cousins are acting paranoid.

 

[Tornado]

What are the chances of China just saying screw it and bowling over the North Korean government themselves if they finally get sick of Jong Un? The thought just occurred to me earlier today, but I dunno how realistic it is.

 

[Joey D]

What are the chances of China just saying screw it and bowling over the North Korean government themselves if they finally get sick of Jong Un? The thought just occurred to me earlier today, but I dunno how realistic it is.

In theory couldn't China just take over North Korea and claim it as their own? I mean there has to be something there worth value.

 

[Lizard]

What are the chances of China just saying screw it and bowling over the North Korean government themselves if they finally get sick of Jong Un? The thought just occurred to me earlier today, but I dunno how realistic it is.

Zero to be honest.
And what's to say they don't still support NK? Also invading another communist country? Not great for the image.

Especially when they make stuff like this to train soldiers on.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-21999036

 

[Joey D]

Zero to be honest.
And what's to say they don't still support NK?

Especially when they make stuff like this to train soldiers on.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-21999036

China knows that their economy is boned if they were attack the US in anyway. Can you imagine what the fallout in China would be if the Western world ended up putting trade sanctions on them? I mean half the crap I own was probably made in China. They know enough not to bite the hand that feeds them.