North Korea threatens with a nuclear strike.

[Tornado]

They also don't have the capability to get close enough to the U.S. to launch a missile in the first place.

 

[Joey D]

With the chinese missle over California issue too. This is not good. But DPRK might as well nuke themselves if they fancy nuking South Korea. Is the country run by chimps or what?

What Chinese missile over California? That's some whacked out right wing theory on what that mysterious thing was. We all know it was really Iron Man.

 

[Keef]

They also don't have the capability to get close enough to the U.S. to launch a missile in the first place.

If they had a nuclear submarine they could try to get close enough to LA to detonate the nuke underwater and see if they can cause a tsunami. Problem is, they wouldn't be able to get a submarine within 1000 miles of Hawaii without it being spotted or blown out of the water.

 

[ExigeEvan]

With the chinese missle over California issue too. This is not good. But DPRK might as well nuke themselves if they fancy nuking South Korea. Is the country run by chimps or what?

You really, really think that with wikileaks and such being so dominant these days that such conspiracy theories have any truth in them?

And I predicted this in summer and no one believed me.

And the north wont nuke the south they will try for the US from a submarine as the US are a bigger threat as an ally to the south than the south are as a nation.

NK doesn't have a capable missile system let alone a capable submarine launch platform.

 

[prisonermonkeys]

They also don't have the capability to get close enough to the U.S. to launch a missile in the first place.

It's not America I'd be worried about. The article from the BBC makes it pretty clear that the North is gearing up for war with the South, not America. America may intervene, but right now I'd say Kim is angling his nukes - assuming he has them - at the South. I know we've debated whether or not he could actually fire them in the past, but when someone like Kim starts dishing out Cold War rhetoric like this, it's better to assume he has them and prepare a contingency plan than to convince yourself he doesn't and find out at the worst possible moment that he does. There's no doubt in my mind that if Kim wants to push The Button, he will go through with it.

 

[Tornado]

I know, but I was responding to what haitch40 said.

 

[RAZRr1275]

I agree with the people in here that are saying that the most probable scenario for war would be the north attacking the south. Depending on how the succession issue in north korea goes the scenario may become more or less probable. I'm pretty sure Kim Jong Il is aware that if he were to launch anything no the south he would get destroyed by the US military so I think that whether or not the attack occurs rests on how smooth a succession would go

 

[Tornado]

I'm pretty sure Kim Jong Il is aware that if he were to launch anything no the south he would get destroyed by the US military so I think that whether or not the attack occurs rests on how smooth a succession would go

He's probably aware of it, but that doesn't necessarily mean he "believes" it (for lack of a better term).

 

[RAZRr1275]

He's probably aware of it, but that doesn't necessarily mean he "believes" it (for lack of a better term).

I think he believes it. He's been around long enough to know what we do. i think that the question for him is does he want to try to go out with a bang or does he want to leave it up to his son

 

[prisonermonkeys]

I'm pretty sure Kim Jong Il is aware that if he were to launch anything no the south he would get destroyed by the US military so I think that whether or not the attack occurs rests on how smooth a succession would go

Or maybe he believes that the Americans will be cowed by what he does and that Obama will refuse to launch warheads. After all, if Pyongyang were to be hit, it wouldn't just be the North that would be in trouble - fallout would likey settle across the entire peninsula, and depending on prevailing winds, could be carried into China, Russia or even Japan.

 

[YSSMAN]

I think he believes it. He's been around long enough to know what we do. i think that the question for him is does he want to try to go out with a bang or does he want to leave it up to his son

Part of it boils down to whether or not North Korea thinks they can pull off a successful attack, betting on who would firstly have the ability to retaliate, and secondly at what strength they would be able to do so. With the United States placing so much military power in the region over the past six months, it is not the same situation as it would have been say, back in 2006, when our armed forces were over-stretched between Iraq and Afghanistan. Still, even then, Kim and his gang are probably smart enough to realize that the United States cannot afford to enter a full-out conflict of any size while we are still being bled dry in the Middle-East. Combine that with an already shaky economic state, and they place themselves in an interesting position.

But yeah, that's a bit unrealistic. If the North attacks the South, it is the kind of conflict that would likely see almost universal support.

 

[prisonermonkeys]

If the North attacks the South, it is the kind of conflict that would likely see almost universal support.

Ah, but Kim doesn't think like that. He believes America is a tyrant, and has gotten to its position through bullying and brow-beating others into submission. He probably thinks that if he can strike a blow to America's pride, America will scarper back across the Pacific and the rest of the world will awaken from its apathy.

 

[Tornado]

Still, even then, Kim and his gang are probably smart enough to realize that the United States cannot afford to enter a full-out conflict of any size while we are still being bled dry in the Middle-East.

It isn't as though we would need to, at any rate.

 

[Dotini]

Personally, I don't believe North Korea would ever attack anybody else - not in 1000 years. However, I do think they would defend against an attack from the South with nukes. Not just any nuke, but nuclear artillery: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_artillery
North Korea hasn't much in the way of modern jet fighters, but they have excellent well dug-in artillery and some quite serviceable short and intermediate range ballistic missiles.

As Interludes pointed out, fallout could affect neighbors Russia, China and Japan. This would be powerful incentive to restrain the South from attacking.

The South made a big mistake firing from the disputed island. It's within sight of North Korea, but, what, over 50 miles from Southern territory? It might properly belong to North Korea or even China. And according to sources, the South fired first - not just off into the water in a southerly direction, but toward Northern positions.

I have read The Art of War by Sun Tzu. It's been favorite reading of generals and "Great Leaders" for centuries. Do you suppose Kim has read it too? Do you suppose he's more wily and cagey than he looks? Sun Tzu admonishes that the first and biggest mistake is to underestimate your enemy.

 

[Sureboss]

Since when did distance relative to a country determine the owner of land?

 

[Dotini]

Since when did distance relative to a country determine the owner of land?

Never did! Ever heard of the Falkland Islands?

Obviously, violent conquest by force of arms is the first and best way to secure ownership of land. Laws and deeds can later be drawn up at leisure. Unfortunately, in the case of the Korean War, the Allies failed to win, and the war ended in stalemate and armistice.

Take a look at a decent atlas. It will be seen that the disputed island is in the Yellow Sea, which is within the sphere of influence of China, and considered by them to be their own lake.

 

[RAZRr1275]

Or maybe he believes that the Americans will be cowed by what he does and that Obama will refuse to launch warheads. After all, if Pyongyang were to be hit, it wouldn't just be the North that would be in trouble - fallout would likey settle across the entire peninsula, and depending on prevailing winds, could be carried into China, Russia or even Japan.

I don't think that we'd retaliate with nukes. We don't need them. Especially when North Korea doesn't have the capability to attack us

Sorry for double post but

Part of it boils down to whether or not North Korea thinks they can pull off a successful attack, betting on who would firstly have the ability to retaliate, and secondly at what strength they would be able to do so. With the United States placing so much military power in the region over the past six months, it is not the same situation as it would have been say, back in 2006, when our armed forces were over-stretched between Iraq and Afghanistan. Still, even then, Kim and his gang are probably smart enough to realize that the United States cannot afford to enter a full-out conflict of any size while we are still being bled dry in the Middle-East. Combine that with an already shaky economic state, and they place themselves in an interesting position.

But yeah, that's a bit unrealistic. If the North attacks the South, it is the kind of conflict that would likely see almost universal support.

The middle east is officially a non-combat zone. If it really got to a full scale combat in the korean region we'd pull out the troops that are currently training soldiers in the middle east and move them to the korea area. I also think that we'd be fine with the troops that we have there now. We definitely have more firepower than them. And your right that our allies would probably jump in as well.

Ah, but Kim doesn't think like that. He believes America is a tyrant, and has gotten to its position through bullying and brow-beating others into submission. He probably thinks that if he can strike a blow to America's pride, America will scarper back across the Pacific and the rest of the world will awaken from its apathy.

I don't think you're giving Kim enough credit. Yes he seems entirely irrational but he isn't an idiot. He knows exactly what would happen.

 

[Sureboss]

Never did! Ever heard of the Falkland Islands?

Obviously, violent conquest by force of arms is the first and best way to secure ownership of land. Laws and deeds can later be drawn up at leisure. Unfortunately, in the case of the Korean War, the Allies failed to win, and the war ended in stalemate and armistice.

Take a look at a decent atlas. It will be seen that the disputed island is in the Yellow Sea, which is within the sphere of influence of China, and considered by them to be their own lake.

What is considered by China is irrelevant, Yeonpyeong was South Korean territory in the Armisitice agreement and the North has only been bitching about it since Kim Jong decided the best course of any action is to stick your foot in.

Which makes your statement of:

It might properly belong to North Korea or even China.

Completely bemusing. Yeonpyeong is South Korean territory. Period.

 

[Dotini]

Yeonpyeong is South Korean territory. Period.

Wow, It's great that's settled! Hurry up and get a call in to Kim and let him know!! Sureboss for the Nobel Peace Prize.👍

 

[Sureboss]

Well answered. Have a biscuit.

 

[Famine]

Personally, I don't believe North Korea would ever attack anybody else - not in 1000 years. However, I do think they would defend against an attack from the South with nukes. Not just any nuke, but nuclear artillery: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_artillery
North Korea hasn't much in the way of modern jet fighters, but they have excellent well dug-in artillery and some quite serviceable short and intermediate range ballistic missiles.

They're at a stage slightly in advance of the US nuclear program of 1945 - they can reportedly deliver a nuke that weighs slightly less than Little Boy (4 tonnes) and which gives a slightly larger bang (25kton - 1 to 1.5 miles destruction radius). Their short range delivery systems have a capacity of about a tonne - and their only intercontinental missile can move about a tenth of that.

As for firing a 4 tonne nuke out of a 200mm cannon... no.

 

[Dotini]

As for firing a 4 tonne nuke out of a 200mm cannon... no.

Thanks for that, Famine. Could we ask you to edit the Wikipedia article to delete the reference to North Korea's rumored nuclear artillery, please?

 

[Azuremen]

Wow, It's great that's settled! Hurry up and get a call in to Kim and let him know!! Sureboss for the Nobel Peace Prize.👍

Thanks for that, Famine. Could we ask you to edit the Wikipedia article to delete the reference to North Korea's rumored nuclear artillery, please?

I think while he is at, perhaps ban you for trolling?

Your silly over simplifications after posting about things that you clearly don't understand just kind of makes you out to be a troll. Certainly doesn't help your argument what so ever at this point.

 

[ExigeEvan]

Thanks for that, Famine. Could we ask you to edit the Wikipedia article to delete the reference to North Korea's rumored nuclear artillery, please?

If I made a website that told you North Korea had Gundam and Mech Warriors you'd believe me wouldn't you?

 

[Dotini]

Your silly over simplifications after posting about things that you clearly don't understand just kind of makes you out to be a troll. Certainly doesn't help your argument what so ever at this point.

I admit to silly oversimplifications, but surely you can't doubt I have some understanding of the issues. My arguments are inconsequential, and no offense is meant. It's really all in the spirit of friendly banter. I apologize if anyone including Sureboss or Famine has taken serious offense. I really don't know the term troll, but I will look it up.

Edit: sorry, but I refer to Wikipedia for the definition of troll:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Troll_(Internet)

My intent was to be droll, and not to troll.

 

[Famine]

Thanks for that, Famine. Could we ask you to edit the Wikipedia article to delete the reference to North Korea's rumored nuclear artillery, please?

Why would I do that? It's a rumour. You've stated it in this thread already, perpetuating the rumour. No problem.

 

[prisonermonkeys]

I don't think that we'd retaliate with nukes. We don't need them. Especially when North Korea doesn't have the capability to attack us.

Who siad anything about attacking you directly? What if Kim attacked South Korean forces with a nuclear device and did it in a way to force America into a confonrtation; ie by claiming that he did it because the South became aggressive because of their alliance with America?

 

[RAZRr1275]

Who siad anything about attacking you directly? What if Kim attacked South Korean forces with a nuclear device and did it in a way to force America into a confonrtation; ie by claiming that he did it because the South became aggressive because of their alliance with America?

I never said anything about Kim attacking the US. My response would be assuming that he attacks South Korea. Even if we were forced into a confrontation we would not use nukes.

 

[prisonermonkeys]

Then why do you even have them? Having nuclear weapons is not enough for nuclear deterrance - you have to make people believe you have every intention of using them. Would America use a nuclear device if one was used against it? What if America went in to North Korea to take out the North Korean High Command and Kim used a nuclear device against American troops?

 

[RAZRr1275]

Then why do you even have them? Having nuclear weapons is not enough for nuclear deterrance - you have to make people believe you have every intention of using them. Would America use a nuclear device if one was used against it? What if America went in to North Korea to take out the North Korean High Command and Kim used a nuclear device against American troops?

We have them for deterrence. Nukes are so serious that we don't need people to think that we're going to use them. Whether or not that deterrence works is a different question but in this case if north korea nukes the south there is literally no reason to nuke them. We have a ton of conventional firepower right by the north and could easily mobilize more. We could get the job done without causing total destruction.

EDIT: If you don't mind me asking, where are you from? I noticed that you're using "you" when referring to the US.