Plane crash in Southern France.

[MonSpaNur]

That is quite a leap there.

I agree with the CFIT theory, based on the little info we have - something happened at cruise altitude, plane descended at a fast (but safe) rate, however the target altitude (above sea level) and the altitude of the terrain at that spot were incompatible with each other.

Decompression (and the initial, potentially explosive failure that caused it) will leave the pilots trying to control the plane. The graph obviates engine failure as the airspeed never drops below optimum for any altitude - in fact as the altitude decreases it exceeds it.

There are many possible explanations for a failure to answer ATC including that the transmissions weren't received or that the crew were too busy flying a badly damaged aircraft.

That leave to much questions unanswered.

Why they did kept a speed (+/-700km/h) in excess of the triple necessary to avoid a stall (+/-230km/h) at 1.800 meters?

And, if that would do not make any sense in a undamaged plane, why they did that in a badly damaged one?

The normal air pressure inside a plane during flight is set to 2.400 meters, so why they did not stop the descend at that altitude?

And why they did descend to 1800 meters and strait into a high mountain range without any airport, while they had low terrain at both sides and with airports there?

No.

Why?

 

[Robin]

I`m very sorry to said this, but all information suggests a suicide.

I was also thinking that this, sadly, might possibly be the case (it's happened before) but it's a quick conclusion to jump to. The decent does not indicate explosive decompression so its might be that something important broke of the plane or massive electrical or mechanical failure.

Could it have been a failed hijacking?

I'm interested to know if the black boxes are solid state or older tape, from the pics it looks like the latter which might be easier to get data from rather than solid state in that condition.

 

[eran0004]

That graph suggests decompression rather than stall or engine loss. The stall speed of the aircraft (clean) is around 220kias loaded. That's presuming that this is the data for the crash we're currently discussing?

Yeah, that's the data from the flight. I'm thinking that the descent was controlled by the autopilot because the descent and the airspeed looks really neat and apparently the plane stayed on course as well.

An emergency descent would be more rapid, if this is anything to go by:

The normal routine for an emergency descent is of course for cap and fo to get on O2 themselves first and establish communication over the interphone. The FO will try to control the cabin manually if quickly possible but will not spend alot of time trying. Once he clearly states to the cap "cabin uncontrollable" the cap announces "emergency descent". All jets I have flown call for an immediate high speed descent with thrust idle and speed brakes deployed fully. You keep the speed at or near barber pole (Vmo or Mmo (max operating velocity or mach)) until levelling out at your target altitude (10,000 or lowest altitude for terrain clearance).

The point is to get down quick and usually you are descending in excess of 6000 '/min. The only reason to keep the speed back would be if you suspected structural damage. Delaying the descent to slow back to gear and flap operating speed is not recommended normally. The questioner referred to the operating time of 12 or so minutes for the oxygen generators - the reason for this 'window' is not so you can take more time to get down - that is done immediately and at a high descent rate - but to cater to the situation where you are over mountainous terrain and maybe you cant level off at 10,000 right away. You may have to level out at 15,000 or so for say eight minutes.

If you are flying a mountainous route you need escape charts that plot a track for you to get onto so you can get down to 10,000 safely. You should have these charts out and ready while you are in that zone. Incidentally your fuel load must cater to a loss of pressurization and subsequent diversion at 10,000 to a suitable alternate.

So I'm thinking that it's related to a computer or sensor malfunction. Perhaps even a human error scenario where they set a wrong altitude by accident.

 

[TenEightyOne]

The normal air pressure inside a plane during flight is set to 2.400 meters, so why they did not stop the descend at that altitude??

I'd presume that it was because the plane had suffered too much damage to recover from the descent. It's clear that if this was a decompression event it wasn't a simple malfunction. As you point out, equitable altitude was only 400m above the crash site.

I don't know where you're get a speed of 700kias from, that would have caused a complete in-flight loss which we know didn't happen. If @eran004's graph is to be believed the kias remained constant at around 400kias.

Don't be confused by kigs, that's completely different and irrelevant to an aircraft in flight.

EDIT: @Dennisch, this report says that the CVR has been found and that there are "noises and voices" on the recording. It also says that reports the FDR has been found are so far incorrect. Do you have a source for the report that said the memory cards were in fact missing?

 

[Barra333]

@TenEightyOne I think The BBC news tonight said that they had located the data recorder housing, but not the contents. I'm looking for a source In the key points at the top here.

EDIT: OK, that is weird, the BBC have contradicting reports - the one I link and the one TenEightyOne links above.

 

[MonSpaNur]

but it's a quick conclusion to jump to.

Of course it is.
Any conclusion must be reached after a comprehensive investigation and this takes a long time (years in some cases) to be completed.
But, in fact, all information that we have now suggests a suicide.

Believe me, even if the investigation do not reach a conclusion, I really hope that it will, at least, exclude the suicide as a possible cause for the accident.

As you point out, equitable altitude was only 400m above the crash site.

600 meters (2.400-1.800=600).

I don't know where you're get a speed of 700kias from

(+/-700km/h)

I'd presume

Sorry, but what you presume means nothing for me.
I`m only interested in facts.

 

[TenEightyOne]

600 meters (2.400-1.800=600)

A difference of 200 metres in a crash site that covers an elevation of over 200 metres... and for an aircraft that was descending at 1000 metres-per-minute (rough calc from 3000fpm).

Your stall speed is completely wrong; that's what led me to believe that you were talking in kias rather than km/h. A clean, loaded Airbus 320 stalls at around 220kias at 30,000 feet, that can be lowered to around 190kias at 6,000 feet (a very narrow envelope on that wing) and the dirty plane can manage about 140kias. That Vsmin is dependent on lots of things, of course.

Sorry, but what you presume means nothing for me.
I`m only interested in facts.

all information suggests a suicide

So long as we're clear.

 

[Dennisch]

EDIT: @Dennisch, this report says that the CVR has been found and that there are "noises and voices" on the recording. It also says that reports the FDR has been found are so far incorrect. Do you have a source for the report that said the memory cards were in fact missing?

Dutch news site

Where the text start with "Tweede zwarte doos" it states: (loosely translated)

Reportedly the second black box, the FDR has been found, the important content is isn't there.
The memory card is missing.

But a bit of further investigation tells me that it hasn't been found yet.

linky

So scratch that it has been found. Dutch news isn't up to date.

Edit.

It seems that they have only found the enclosure that holds the FDR. They haven't found the recorder itself.

Too much contradiction in that part of the story.

Edit 2.

@R1600Turbo

The French investigation committee BEA states that the plane was pretty much in one piece when it impacted. Otherwise the debris field would have been larger.

 

[Barra333]

Similar contradictions to the BBC.

 

[Dennisch]

Took me a while to find it in English:

The part at 5.30 pm is the Bea statement

5:30 p.m. (1630 GMT, 12:30 p.m. EDT)

The director of France's aviation investigative agency says there currently is not the "slightest explanation" for what caused the Germanwings plane to lose altitude and crash in the Alps.

Remi Jouty says the investigation could take weeks or even months.

Jouty says the plane was flying "until the end" - slamming into the mountain, not breaking up in the air.

He says the final communication from the plane was a routine message about permission to continue on its route.

 

[Tintorera]

The board leader in EASA, Pekka Henttu says the recordings from the voice recorder indicates there was silence in th cockpit during the entire decent.


Link to a Norwegian newspaper reporting this:
http://www.vg.no/nyheter/utenriks/luftfart/helt-stille-i-cockpit-under-nedstigningen/a/23423192/

 

[Dotini]

I'm reporting that Fox News is reporting that the NY Times is reporting that a pilot had left the cockpit and was unable to return.

 

[MonSpaNur]

A difference of 200 metres in a crash site that covers an elevation of over 200 metres... and for an aircraft that was descending at 1000 metres-per-minute (rough calc from 3000fpm).

What does this have to do with your mistake?
You do not know how to do the simplest of the calculations and, instead of recognise your mistake, you tried to place the blame on me?

Your stall speed is completely wrong

That Vsmin is dependent on lots of things, of course.

No, i believe that my stall speed is right.
But, like you very well said, the Vs depends of a lot of things and, because of that, we can never be sure about the exact number without knowing all the variants evolved.

I as unable to find specific information about stall speeds related to altitude, but I know that the A320 have a Vmca of 119 kias and, because I as talking about the speed related to the ground and the plane as flying at 1.800 meters, I gave some allowance to reach my +/-230 km/h (119 kias = 220 km/h).
I do not know were yours 190kias come from.

So long as we're clear.

Is not my fault if you are not able to distinguish between my fact (based in all information know at moment, the only reason for the crash is a suicide) and your suppositions (there are many possible bla bla bla, potencially explosive bla bla bla and supposing bla bla bla...).

Why you did not answer to my question: why what I said is wrong?
You have no answer?

 

[Dotini]

delete

 

[Ibonibo]

The suicide route is surly investigated by the responsibles, the same way it was MH370. Except here there seems to be no evidence at all, otherwise it would have already been hinted at... On MH370 there were some leads tending to it, released a day later...

Let the investigations be closed before saying the pilot killed 149 people

As long as the investigations are not closed all is pure and utter speculation.

German news also covered it could have been a window in the cockpit that cracked and thus leaving the members in the cockpit unconcious. Also speculation...

 

[Dennisch]

I'm reporting that Fox News is reporting that the NY Times is reporting that a pilot had left the cockpit and was unable to return.

Do they have any evidence for this information or is it a hear-say from a hear-say source?

 

[Ibonibo]

How would they know? It's Fox... There are no sources. None, until all data recorders are fully investigated

 

[Dotini]

Do they have any evidence for this information or is it a hear-say from a hear-say source?

Heh-heh, a softball! It's hearsay cubed.

 

[MonSpaNur]

Let the investigations be closed before saying the pilot killed 149 people

I never said that.

As long as the investigations are not closed all is pure and utter speculation.

I only mentioned a fact, so there's no speculation involved from my side.

 

[Johnnypenso]

Fox is quoting a New York Times article for all you Fox haters:

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/26/world/europe/germanwings-airbus-crash.html

“The guy outside is knocking lightly on the door and there is no answer,” the investigator said. “And then he hits the door stronger and no answer. There is never an answer.”

He said, “You can hear he is trying to smash the door down.”

Suicide, or perhaps intentional destruction of the aircraft for terroristic purposes just shot up the list of likely explanations.

 

[Dennisch]

Dutch newssites are now also citing the New York Times.

But that has been proven to be the wrong choice sometimes, so I'll wait until the French or German investigators bring out this news.

 

[Johnnypenso]

Is there not some protocol around a single person being in the cockpit behind a closed door? It seems incredulous to me in this day and age that anyone could be in the cockpit alone, in control of the airliner, with no way for another person to get into the cockpit. You'd think that another crew member would have to take the place of the pilot or co-pilot if they were to leave the cabin for some reason, in case of medical emergency for example.

 

[Dennisch]

Is there not some protocol around a single person being in the cockpit behind a closed door? It seems incredulous to me in this day and age that anyone could be in the cockpit alone, in control of the airliner, with no way for another person to get into the cockpit. You'd think that another crew member would have to take the place of the pilot or co-pilot if they were to leave the cabin for some reason, in case of medical emergency for example.

If the news turns out to be true, this rule will be implemented ASAP.

We'll make sure you get all the credit for it.

Penso's law.

 

[Swagger897]

All of this is very sad indeed...

My only question I have for it all, is why the media is calling the descent "normal"? How is 3,300+ fpm a "normal" descent. I know this will sound stupid, but never while doing flight simulator and prepar3d flights have I ever even passed 2500 fpm in a descent. "Normal" is usually 1100-1700, almost half, and that is what the FMC is going off of from TD.

I could/might ask a few other pilots if they've ever reached something that high but that's ridiculous...

 

[Johnnypenso]

All of this is very sad indeed...

My only question I have for it all, is why the media is calling the descent "normal"? How is 3,300+ fpm a "normal" descent. I know this will sound stupid, but never while doing flight simulator and prepar3d flights have I ever even passed 2500 fpm in a descent. "Normal" is usually 1100-1700, almost half, and that is what the FMC is going off of from TD.

I could/might ask a few other pilots if they've ever reached something that high but that's ridiculous...

Probably poor choice of words. Perhaps they mean "controlled" as opposed to "normal", meaning it doesn't appear to dive straight down into the ground nor descend erratically.

 

[Robin]

So one pilot leaves the cockpit which can only be opened from inside with the other pilot there.

Pilot inside suffers a heart attack or blacks out for whatever reason.

Other pilot cannot get back in.

Madness.

I think on the new larger airlines they have a digital combination lock to get in which only the pilots know, the cabin crew have to knock.

 

[Swagger897]

Is there not some protocol around a single person being in the cockpit behind a closed door? It seems incredulous to me in this day and age that anyone could be in the cockpit alone, in control of the airliner, with no way for another person to get into the cockpit. You'd think that another crew member would have to take the place of the pilot or co-pilot if they were to leave the cabin for some reason, in case of medical emergency for example.

I'm trying to think of something like subs have (or from what I have read) that they span the length of six feet apart and switched simultaneously, but the thing is, six feet is almost as wide as a 777's pit, so something even smaller isn't making it easier...

I dunno... All I know is, they aren't the most spacious places in the world, but god do Boeing make (well made with the new 787) the best seats in the world...

like, ultra-plush seats.... no wait, zero-gravity seats from the falcon!

Probably poor choice of words. Perhaps they mean "controlled" as opposed to "normal", meaning it doesn't appear to dive straight down into the ground nor descend erratically.

No no, CNN had their "experts" (although they may be, the fact they say so puzzles me).

So one pilot leaves the cockpit which can only be opened from inside with the other pilot there.

Pilot inside suffers a heart attack or blacks out for whatever reason.

Other pilot cannot get back in.

Madness.

I think on the new larger airlines they have a digital combination lock to get in which only the pilots know, the cabin crew have to knock.

Never seen such. I'll let you know though next time I'm on a new 737 from Delta..

 

[TenEightyOne]

What does this have to do with your mistake?
You do not know how to do the simplest of the calculations and, instead of recognise your mistake, you tried to place the blame on me?

I'm saying that there is no single altitude for the final crash, the crash site has an elevation of over 200m, unless you'd like to enlighten us further?

No, i believe that my stall speed is right.
But, like you very well said, the Vs depends of a lot of things and, because of that, we can never be sure about the exact number without knowing all the variants evolved.

I as unable to find specific information about stall speeds related to altitude, but I know that the A320 have a Vmca of 119 kias and, because I as talking about the speed related to the ground and the plane as flying at 1.800 meters, I gave some allowance to reach my +/-230 km/h (119 kias = 220 km/h).
I do not know were yours 190kias come from.

Vmca is the required wingspeed with take-off configuration which includes the breaking of ground-effect, and you're giving the minimum for an empty aircraft with perfect balance. This plane was loaded with passengers, their luggage and the required fuel. Regardless of that the airspeed never approached stall (which is Vsmin in flight).

I as unable to find specific information about stall speeds related to altitude, but I know that the A320 have a Vmca of 119 kias and, because I as talking about the speed related to the ground and the plane as flying at 1.800 meters, I gave some allowance to reach my +/-230 km/h (119 kias = 220 km/h).
I do not know were yours 190kias come from.

The plane, loaded in clean configuration (all surfaces retracted) has a stall of around 220kias at altitude, I got that from working on instruments and from using an Airbus simulator to test them. There are very accurate models available for home use, if you'd like me to look some up for you? If you tried to land one at 119kias, even with the flaps fully extended, you'd have a lot of impact-related problems.

Is not my fault if you are not able to distinguish between my fact (based in all information know at moment, the only reason for the crash is a suicide) and your suppositions (there are many possible bla bla bla, potencially explosive bla bla bla and supposing bla bla bla...).

You know what a fact is, right?

 

[MonSpaNur]

So one pilot leaves the cockpit which can only be opened from inside with the other pilot there.

Pilot inside suffers a heart attack or blacks out for whatever reason.

Other pilot cannot get back in.

That do not explain this accident, the autopilot should have kept the plane in the flight path, just like the Helios one.

You know what a fact is, right?

Of course I know.
I`m not sure about you, but, frankly, seems that you think that the product of your imagination is a fact for you.

I'm saying that there is no single altitude for the final crash

I mentioned two altitudes (2.400 and 1.800 meters) and you said the difference between them is 400 meters.
So, not only you refused to accept that you did a calculation mistake, you also lied about what you have said?

Sorry, but I have no more time to waste with you, your attitude is absolutely despicable.

 

[Dennisch]

That do not explain this accident, the autopilot should have kept the plane in the flight path, just like the Helios one.

But what if the plane wasn't on auto pilot yet.
That makes the scenario plausible.