McLaren
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EA don't have any exclusive contracts. Porsche would never sign away "exclusive" rights to anyone in terms of their intellectual imagery. Porsche can licence their product to whoever they choose.
I suspect that Porsche are against the inclusion of RUF in Gran Turismo. A good mate told me many years ago that they (Porsche) were prepared to sign up for GT3, but their licence was conditional on the clause that PD did not include Ruf Automobiles in the game.
Rubbish rumour-mongering? I thought so at the time, but when I learn that Porsche are not included in GT5, I suspect that there is something deeper than just mere "licensing" issues and none of those involve EA or Turn 10. And none of the other games include RUF, yet they're happily in bed with Porsche whilst PD, who have good ties with VW, are left out in the cold.
Could it be that this is true and Kazunori or PD won't be dictated to as to who they include in their game? Ruf are after all a recognized manufacturer of cars, they are not a tuning house. It wouldn't surprise me at all if Porsche were afraid of having their products directly compared against a company they regard as "aftermarket tuners".
Um, yes, EA does, & yes, Porsche would. They've already been doing so for the past couple of years. It's exactly why Turn10 can't promote Forza 3 with a direct image of a Porsche.
As for your theory, you might as well be one of those folks who believe Porsche is refusing to be in a game with the Nissan GT-R as well.