Presidential Election: 2012

[Sam48]

Well, I casted my vote for Ron Paul today, but in such a blue state, New York that is, it probably won't count for anything. Especially when the majority of people in my county are senior citizens who plan on voting for Romney.

 

[Keef]

Senior citizens are a bunch of selfish, ignorant, submissive, socialist cowards and are the reason we're in the situation we're in today. Solving the problems we're facing now will be much easier when none of them are around to vote any longer.

 

[Danoff]

Senior citizens are a bunch of selfish, ignorant, submissive, socialist cowards and are the reason we're in the situation we're in today. Solving the problems we're facing now will be much easier when none of them are around to vote any longer.

An entire generation of selfish jerks is currently retiring or just recently retired. My parents are the poster children.

 

[FoolKiller]

Just a quick video of Crazy Uncle Ron Paul making crazy predictions 10 years ago in front of Congress.



Good thing this kook won't be president.


And here is a link to a story with a link to the speech by Ludwig Von Mises that inspired Ron Paul. The audio is unfortunately low quality.

http://bastiat.mises.org/2012/04/audio-of-the-mises-lecture-that-inspired-ron-paul/

In End the Fed, Ron Paul writes:

Early on, I had heard Ludwig von Mises lecture at the University of Houston. This was probably in 1972, a year before his death. At that time I was extremely busy with my medical practice but saw a very small newspaper notice that Mises would be lecturing at the university on a weekday. I knew there was only one other physician in the town of Lake Jackson, Dr. Henry May, who would care about such an unusual event. I called him to see if he cared to travel the fifty miles to hear Mises. We arranged our office schedules and made the trip.

Mises, at the time, was elderly but sharp. His subject was socialism, and his lecture explained why socialism always fails due to the absence of a free market pricing structure for capital goods. He was on his last lecture tour of the United States, and Houston may well have been his last stop. (Mises died on October 10, 1973, at ninety-two years of age.)

Not to our surprise, the university did not give him a prestigious reception. The lecture was held in a modest-sized classroom, but the place was overflowing. Popularizing Austrian economics at the time was in its very early stages, but it was obvious even then that there was a starvation for truth in economics. The early 1970s were truly hectic, and since gold prices were soaring and the dollar was dropping more and more, people were searching for solutions. Today, of course, the problems are so much worse and the need for answers even more urgent.

To say the least, my trip to Houston to hear Mises in person was an inspiration. I suspect that when the definitive history of the twentieth century is written, Mises will be considered on of the greatest economists, if not the greatest, of the century.​

This very 1972 Houston lecture on socialism has been rediscovered at the Ludwig von Mises Institute. The recording was generously donated by Professor Jeffrey Calvert, who also attended.

This one may require headphones; the audio is not ideal. But it is definitely worth the effort it may take to listen to what really is a historical gem: a recording of the last knight of liberalism, at the end of his “intellectual lion in winter” phase, inspiring the man who has inspired a movement for liberty.

The audio link is embedded in the story at the link.

 

[Touring Mars]

Mitt Romney has won all five primaries yesterday, including New York with 62% of the vote, which means he will take all 95 delegates from the state. He will also take all 17 from Delaware. Romney scored 58% of the vote in Pennsylvania too, and, somewhat bizarrely, Rick Santorum got 2nd place, despite having suspended his campaign! Ron Paul beat Newt Gingrich in four of the five states yesterday as well - surely Gingrich will now fold?

On top of these disasterous results for Gingrich is the slightly bizarre fact that he remains the only one of the four candidates that has not been declared the winner in Iowa Despite being called for Romney, and then Santorum, Ron Paul looks to have won Iowa decisively, and as has been mentioned already, he has also won Minnesota convincingly too. With predicted wins in other states, Paul should comfortably pass the required five state victories in order to appear on the first ballot in Tampa. Newt Gingrich, on the other hand, looks like he's going to fail on that front.

That is pretty amazing stuff.

Given that Romney has all but sealed the GOP nomination, at what point would it be best for Ron Paul to consider getting out of the race and focussing on a potential run as an independent again?


edit: Fox is reporting that Newt Gingrich is planning to suspend his campaign next week - here.

CBS report that Gingrich's campaign aides have announced that Gingrich will suspend his campaign on May 1st.

 

[FoolKiller]

Given that Romney has all but sealed the GOP nomination, at what point would it be best for Ron Paul to consider getting out of the race and focussing on a potential run as an independent again?

It depends on a few things. If everyone else being out allows Paul to get some straight forward wins as the only non-Romney vote left there is still a mathematical chance of a brokered convention. Dropping out as long as that is a possibility prevents him from getting his message out more.

If this is not about a message and only about the presidency then his best bet would be to drop out and reset for a third party or independent run. But that is only if he doesn't care about Rand's political future. Playing a Ross Perot or Ralph Nader role could kill Rand's future.

Ultimately, I don't see Ron Paul running on another ticket. And if that is the case, I suggest he stays in it as long as he can afford to.

No matter what he does, I feel his supporters will still write him in or go third party. His career is ending and the GOP is about to learn a hard lesson.*

*Willing to admit that without Ron Paul on a ballot the convictions of voters may falter and we will see a disturbingly high anti-Obama vote.

 

[Liquid]

Former Massachusetts Governor Romney has an unassailable lead in the race for the 1,144 delegates needed to secure the Republican nomination at the party convention in August.

Texas Congressman Ron Paul is the only other remaining candidate in the race, although he cannot win.

Lies, or what?

 

[Omnis]

That is pretty amazing stuff.

Given that Romney has all but sealed the GOP nomination, at what point would it be best for Ron Paul to consider getting out of the race and focussing on a potential run as an independent again?

He won't get out until after the convention. He'll have a plurality of delegates in the minimum of 5 states required to guarantee him a spot in Tampa.

 

[Keef]

Lies, or what?

Assumption. Probably not lying, just ignorance of how the process actually works.

 

[Liquid]

Or maybe exaggerative language.

Romney has a significant 'lead', but it's not yet unassailable.
Paul is a longshot candidate, but that doesn't mean 'he can't win'.

Bloody BBC. They ususally give longshots the benefit of the doubt, but clearly not on this occasion.

 

[Touring Mars]

Lies, or what?

Not really. Given Romney's current hard delegate total (724), and the fact that he currently enjoys massive leads over Paul in the remaining winner-takes-all primaries - CA (172 delegates), NJ (50 delegates), and UT (40 delegates), there's no realistic chance that Ron Paul can beat Romney, therefore he does have an unassailable lead (note that this doesn't mean that Romney is guaranteed to win). Those three WTA states alone will hand Romney a hard delegate total of 986, with another 896 still to be decided. With Ron Paul's hard total on a mere 54, he couldn't catch Romney even if he scored 100% of the vote in the other primaries. Factor in the ~120 GOP superdelegates (current endorsements: 43 for Romney, 5 for all other candidates combined) and Romney's going to be knocking on the door of 1,144 before we even consider Romney's share of all of the remaining primaries!

Ron Paul could only win if he could stop Romney from reaching 1,144 delegates in the first ballot, and without Santorum or Gingrich in the race any more, it is practically impossible that Romney will not get the rest of the delegates that he needs.

I'm not against the idea that Ron Paul supporters want to see him maximise his message - but there does come a point where reality sinks in. Ron Paul will not win now.

 

[Omnis]

I read something about having a plurality or a majority of the delegation of 5 states giving him a spot in Tampa. What I'm not sure of, however, is whether that gives him a speaking role or if that secures a nomination upon which the whole convention would vote. Don't know how it ties in with the whole magic number thing.

 

[Bye Ya]

Senior citizens are a bunch of selfish, ignorant, submissive, socialist cowards and are the reason we're in the situation we're in today. Solving the problems we're facing now will be much easier when none of them are around to vote any longer.

Okay.

 

[livemusic]

It appears some politics websites are saying Gingrich will be renouncing his candidacy on May 1st.

 

[Omnis]

http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/333323/20120425/ron-paul-2012-news-delegates-mitt-romney.htm

Apparently Ron Paul can pull a Warren Harding and win it. Cool, make it happen.

 

[Touring Mars]

Fox is reporting that Newt Gingrich is planning to suspend his campaign next week - here.

CBS report that Gingrich's campaign aides have announced that Gingrich will suspend his campaign on May 1st.

It appears some politics websites are saying Gingrich will be renouncing his candidacy on May 1st.

Yep, it was announced yesterday - senior aides in Gingrich's campaign confirmed that he is to suspend his campaign next week. Why not immediately is a little bit unclear.

I read something about having a plurality or a majority of the delegation of 5 states giving him a spot in Tampa. What I'm not sure of, however, is whether that gives him a speaking role or if that secures a nomination upon which the whole convention would vote. Don't know how it ties in with the whole magic number thing.

Ron Paul needs to win atleast 5 states for his name to appear on the first ballot, but I don't think that this automatically gains him a speaking slot at the convention, let alone a prominent one.

I reckon that, in the extremely unlikely event that Romney fails to gather the 1,144 delegates required to guarantee a victory on the first ballot, then Ron Paul would be in good shape for a prominent slot as Romney's sole surviving challenger, as it would become a brokered convention. But I don't think this will happen. Romney will go to Tampa with the nomination in the bag, and that spells bad news for Ron Paul - esp. if he failed to win the 5 states required to appear on the first ballot. Romney and the GOP in general would gain nothing from letting a hostile, defeated candidate speak.

 

[Famine]

Ron Paul could only win if he could stop Romney from reaching 1,144 delegates in the first ballot, and without Santorum or Gingrich in the race any more, it is practically impossible that Romney will not get the rest of the delegates that he needs.

Alternatively, with only two messages to distinguish between, people might be able to listen to both a bit more closely.

Plus all the bound delegates for anyone but Romney and Paul are now floating.

 

[Tesla]

Alternatively, with only two messages to distinguish between, people might be able to listen to both a bit more closely.

Plus all the bound delegates for anyone but Romney and Paul are now floating.

Are those previously bound delegates assigned to a candidate before the first ballot?

 

[LMSCorvetteGT2]

Sadly Romney probably will get the GOP, yet I think we could have save the pages probably a month or two ago. Yet that doesn't make it right and down the hill we keep going, let's hope for something big this time in the middle to happen.

 

[Touring Mars]

Alternatively, with only two messages to distinguish between, people might be able to listen to both a bit more closely.

Paul will be counting on that fact to gain more traction, but he also has to deal with the fact that the debate has already shifted away from the GOP nomination battle to the general election.

Plus all the bound delegates for anyone but Romney and Paul are now floating.

Technically they are not - yet. Santorum has not formally ended his campaign and thus his delegates are still bound to him, and will still have to vote for him in the first ballot. Gingrich's delegates will also remain bound to him, but the difference is that Gingrich's name shouldn't appear on the first ballot by virtue of his failure to win 5 states - so his delegates will be free to vote for someone else.

But, Gingrich will (and effectively has already) endorsed Romney, and Romney meets with Santorum next week to discuss strategy, and that will probably conclude with Santorum giving his endorsement to Romney as well. In other words, Romney stands to gain alot of delegates if Santorum and Gingrich formally end their campaigns. Paul will also gain many delegates from them as well, but that will be irrelevant.

 

[Famine]

But, Gingrich will (and effectively has already) endorsed Romney, and Romney meets with Santorum next week to discuss strategy, and that will probably conclude with Santorum giving his endorsement to Romney as well. In other words, Romney stands to gain alot of delegates if Santorum and Gingrich formally end their campaigns.

Surely all you'd need to do to break that one apart is show footage of them slinging mud at each other during the "debates"...

Paul will also gain many delegates, but that will be irrelevant.

Only time will tell. While it's not unreasonable to suppose Romney will probably win - the math is on his side - it is a bit premature to say that he will and Paul cannot.

 

[Touring Mars]

The math has been in Romney's favour for some time, but now it is overwhelmingly in his favour...

Romney's certain delegates:

Hard delegates already won: 724 (certain)
GOP superdelegates that have already endorsed Romney: 43 (certain)

Certain delegates: 767

Romney's very likely delegates:

Hard delegates from W-T-A states where Romney has big leads: 262 (very likely)
GOP superdelegates still available: 78 (projected Romney share - 70 very likely/almost certain)

Very likely/almost certain delegates: 332

Guaranteed but unquantified gains:

A share of Gingrich's hard delegates: 131 (Romney and Paul will both get some of these - a modest 40% estimate = 59)
Delegates still to be won from proportional primaries: 370 (Romney is certain to win many of these - a modest 40% estimate = 148)

Guaranteed gains (modest estimate): 207

Uncertain but likely gains:

A share of Santorum's hard delegates: 217 (Romney and Paul not guaranteed any unless Santorum quits)
Delegates still to be won from Caucus states: ~ 200 (Romney will very likely to win a good number of these too).

25% of these would net Romney another 100 delegates

Grand total: > 1400

 

[Keef]

All we have to hope for is that Tampa voting goes into a second round. Romney-, Ginrich-, and Santorum-bound delegates who are actually Ron Paul supporters are more numerous than people think they are. Not only are Ron Paul delegates actually winning caucuses now, but they might have already won most of them because they got voted to whatever candidate they could on purpose.

But obviously that requires a second round of voting. Nobody knows the chances at that point because nobody knows how many Romney delegates are actually Paul supporters.

 

[Touring Mars]

All we have to hope for is that Tampa voting goes into a second round. Romney-, Ginrich-, and Santorum-bound delegates who are actually Ron Paul supporters are more numerous than people think they are. Not only are Ron Paul delegates actually winning caucuses now, but they might have already won most of them because they got voted to whatever candidate they could on purpose.

The problem is that the caucuses don't represent a large enough pool of delegates to prevent Romney from winning the first ballot. Paul needs to beat Romney in non-caucus states to have any chance.

The only scenario that I can envisage that would stop Romney from hitting 1144 delegates is this:

• Ron Paul wins California (very unlikely)
• Texas becomes winner-takes-all and Ron Paul wins Texas (unlikely)
• Santorum does not release his bound delegates (possible)
• Gingrich does not release his bound delegates (unlikely/not possible)
• Romney scores less than 40% of the delegates in all remaining proportional primaries, even discounting Texas (very unlikely)
• Romney scores less than 40% delegates from all caucus states (unlikely but possible)
• Romney gets less than 60 of the remaining 78 GOP superdelegates (very unlikely)

ALL OF THAT has to happen to stop Romney from winning on the first ballot. In short, Texas has to become a winner-takes-all state and Ron Paul would have to win that and California to have any chance of stopping Romney. It's possible, but it's very unlikely. And even if it did happen, my guess is that Romney will still win when Gingrich and/or Santorum's hard delegates become unbound.

 

[Keef]

Maybe some crazies will raid the convention and take Romney out? It's possible.

 

[Liquid]

Crazies?

Well it wouldn't be the first time that the CIA stepped in to 'sort things out'.

 

[Keef]

You'll like this one.



By the way, Ron Paul has won the delegate counts from Minnesota, Louisiana, Alaska, and it's looking good in Massachusetts as well. Numerous other states are in the process of choosing delegates.

 

[Dotini]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UQMtlah4Iec&feature=youtu.be

Highly amusing report by Rachel Maddow on Ron Paul's history-making march to nomination at the Republican convention.

Respectfully submitted,
Steve

 

[Touring Mars]

The MA delegates issue is pretty fascinating, because it does raise a large question mark over how solid Romney's support really is.

As I've said a few times, it is now virtually impossible for Romney not to reach 1,144 bound delegates - and he will likely exceed that number by a fair bit - 1,400 is not an unrealistic estimate, and even that may turn out to be a low estimate.

BUT - and this is what I'm not clear on, and it would seem I'm not alone on this - the question is whether or not 1,144 of Romney's bound delegates actually vote for him at the convention... I was under the impression that they had to, but it would seem that this might not be the case. Romney has 38 bound delegates from MA, according to both the official GOP.com website delegate count, and over at Green Papers (the most reliable source I've found when it comes to delegate counts). But, in reality, of those 38, less than half are actual Romney supporters.

So the question is, can these stealth delegates actually abstain and stop Romney from winning on the first ballot?

Here is an interesting article that suggests that this strategy can't work, but I wouldn't know if it were true or not...

 

[Dotini]

So the question is, can these stealth delegates actually abstain and stop Romney from winning on the first ballot?

I doubt it. But, I will say the following:
- Obama holds the whip hand in the electoral college at this time.
- Romney is very likely to lose the election.
- The tattered Republican Party will become even more tattered, self-doubting and rudderless following the election.
- Paul supporters, now seizing the levers of power at the grass roots, will be in the strongest possible position to remake the party in their image.

Respectfully,
Steve