Russian Invasion of Ukraine

[SMfan]

Chechnya isn't trying to take your money, is it?

Oh man. There's so much I wanna and should say now, but it'll take too much time to formulate.
There's a tiiiiiny bit of info on wiki, so you can check it out:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chechnya#Since_1990

 

[ITCC_Andrew]

👍 So you can understand why that's unlikely...


Imagine the slap in the face, then, if they wanted to keep using your money, even after plunging RF into recession/depression... It would seriously suck.

 

[SMfan]

👍 So you can understand why that's unlikely...


Imagine the slap in the face, then, if they wanted to keep using your money, even after plunging RF into recession/depression... It would seriously suck.

I don't think you got what I was tryna say. You're talking about economic issues in Canada. I'm talking about a multi-stage war and an ongoing social catastrophe.

 

[ITCC_Andrew]

Exactly my point. The thing is, while I think most people are discontented by RF's move to annex Crimea, at least it's better than what's going on elsewhere.


Crimea hasn't threatened to leave RF, and crash the economy or start a civil war. Things could be worse.

 

[SMfan]

Exactly my point. The thing is, while I think most people are discontented by RF's move to annex Crimea, at least it's better than what's going on elsewhere.


Crimea hasn't threatened to leave RF, and crash the economy or start a civil war. Things could be worse.

Uhhh. Is there a basis for comparing Crimea to "elsewhere". Cause both Chechnya and Quebec are waaaaay different from Crimea. You might as well compare it to WW2.

 

[ITCC_Andrew]

It suited the point I'm making - that Crimea's annexation is actually a good thing... The fact that both RF and Crimea are satisfied is a good sign, in my opinion.

 

[Rage Racer]

Nobody asked us if WE want them to be Russian citizens. And, yeah, millions of vatniks are screaming "KrymNash" (Crimea'sOurs), but it is in fact a matter of principle.

Who would hear 3.5 Liberasts in that total "oooohyeeeah!" whoop anyway?

You just summed up teh biggest problem in Russia. Whatever the F happens, everybody's cool with it. It's called slave mentality, and I wanna take no part in that movement.

Y'know, if somebody's going to get his hands "heated" on every state budget activity in This Country, even on the most important ones. does it mean we have to terminate it all? Should we have stopped our military reform in 2008 because Serdyukov was making millions on it? Should we have refused to host the Sochi Olympics aka Raspiliada? Or should we stop into space because our Proton-M rockets fall because somebody decided to save some money and hire a Tajik maintainance crew?

My point is, corruption is another problem and it needs to be solved separately. The things affected by corruption must not have anything to do with it. And using "Don't feed the trolls thieves" as an excuse is ridiculous. You must catch the criminals, not terminate the deals.

The s**t in Ukraine wouldn'ta been stirred without our help.

Of course it were klyaty moskali who took the money from Ukraine's treasury.

The NatGuard only attacked the cities where armed "protesters" (criminals - there's no other word).

Well, the NatGuard are the same kind of "criminals" to begin with, too.
But, y'know, I sympathize the Donbass Militia somehow. Especially Babay the Cossack. ^_^

Yeah, here you go:

Okay, will read later.

Oh, sweet dreams.
Life in Crimea won't get much better.

It'll be as much better as life in Russia is better than life in Ukraine in general.
Have you ever been in Ukraine?

Yeah, on average Ukraine ain't much better than in Russia, but there're possibilities of a better future.

I really doubt that, honestly.

And about regions trying to leave - we've had one - called Chechnya.

The s*** happened in Chechnya was a Yeltsin's fail. There is an opinion that the conflict could have been solved without such mess, Dudayev was a quite adequate person to talk to, he could be just like Kadyrov is today, but those two wars would not happen. A good article: http://lurkmore.to/Чеченская_война

And you're forgetting Tatarstan. There was even a referendum in 1992, which resulted in proclaiming of Tatarstan's sovereignty, and a crisis with RF. But TR's autonomy was extended and the crisis ended peacefully.
The Kiev authorities could start talking to the separatists, too. But they decided to shoot instead. Goodbye, sweet united Ukraine.

 

[ITCC_Andrew]

We are talking about the country Top Gear visited, right? The superbly boring one...


Life probably would be better. A few T-54s on the horizon would be scenery...

 

[SMfan]

My point is, corruption is another problem and it needs to be solved separately. The things affected by corruption must not have anything to do with it. And using "Don't feed the trolls thieves" as an excuse is ridiculous. You must catch the criminals, not terminate the deals.

The corruption is in no way separated from the system. Can't beat one without deinstalling the other.

Of course it were klyaty moskali who took the money from Ukraine's treasury.

I was talking about the armed "rebels".

Well, the NatGuard are the same kind of "criminals" to begin with, too.

Not same. NatGuard fight more for ideas than for personal gain. And I don't think they all have such great backgrounds.

But, y'know, I sympathize the Donbass Militia somehow. Especially Babay the Cossack. ^_^

http://dymovskiy-name.livejournal.com/2119243.html

Have you ever been in Ukraine?

Unfortunately, not. So, yeah, my judgement is from other people's stories. Cool people, though.

The s*** happened in Chechnya was a Yeltsin's fail. There is an opinion that the conflict could have been solved without such mess, Dudayev was a quite adequate person to talk to, he could be just like Kadyrov is today, but those two wars would not happen. A good article: http://lurkmore.to/Чеченская_война

Oh, **** lurkmore, man.
But seriously, it was a series of really bad decisions by the people in power. Not just Eltsin, not just Putin. And, yeah, I know about Dudayev and Basayev and so on.

The Kiev authorities could start talking to the separatists, too. But they decided to shoot instead. Goodbye, sweet united Ukraine.

You're too impatient.

 

[Omnis]

http://www.forbes.com/sites/realspin/2014/03/13/the-ethnicities-of-ukraine-are-united/

 

[Rage Racer]

We are talking about the country Top Gear visited, right? The superbly boring one...

Yes, TG was there. When they visited Kiev, my friend took an autograph from Clarkson and this selfie:

This was in November '13, when the Euromaidan was just starting.

The corruption is in no way separated from the system. Can't beat one without deinstalling the other.

Deinstall it, ok, but don't forget to install something not worse instead, to do the same (good) things that the corrupted system had to do. Put Serdyukov to prison already, but keep the military reform going. With Shoigu, who isn't known for such kickbacks. Yet. Who knows...

Not same. NatGuard fight more for ideas than for personal gain. And I don't think they all have such great backgrounds.

Are you so sure that the DPR militia are mercenaries? And if they are, who do you think hired them?

I was talking about the armed "rebels".

But this isn't our help. Or so I think.

*LiveJournal blog link*

Aww, daym, I have a bad feeling about LJ blogs. They're full of conspiracy bull****. I remember what I was reading about the Boston bombing there a year ago... Bloggers post all kinds of BS to get popular.

However, even if Babay is a showman, he is still a warrior. A warrior of the informational war.

Unfortunately, not. So, yeah, my judgement is from other people's stories.

I have been there once (in Donetsk), but that was a very long time ago.
My father had visited Ukraine a year ago, on his business trip. He said, it's like Russia in the '90s. "We have advanced seriously after the '90s, but they almost didn't. People are still poor there."

Seriously, according to IMF, the only European country that's economically worse than Ukraine, is Moldova.

You're too impatient.

Okay, stocking up with popcorn.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/realspin/2014/03/13/the-ethnicities-of-ukraine-are-united/

It may be something new for you, but for us, this is obvious. Of course they are bilingual. We have no language barrier with Ukrainians, even the western.
The cause why Ukraine's unity is so cranky today is not the language. And it's not about ethnicity, too.
IMO, it's the stupid actions of Ukraine's current government - to cut away from Russia at Ukraine's own expense, drawing the enemy of RF... and rolling the country deeper into 🤬. Some people did not like it (mostly on the southeast), there were protests, and violence against the protesters (e.g. the massacre in Odessa). Which is another addition of fuel in the fire.

 

[ITCC_Andrew]

I guess you didn't see that episode? It makes Canadian scenery seem exciting. Ukraine is a very flat, non-scenic country, according to them. but, it did expose a truth about Ukraine - it's not rich.

 

[Rage Racer]

BTW, have you heard about the detainment of two Russian journalists of LifeNews? The western officials and mainstream media ignore it or call them "terrorists", lol.

The British RT journalist, Graham Philips, who was arrested too, is about to be handed to the UK consul.
http://rt.com/news/160476-rt-phillips-uk-consulate/

Meanwhile: LifeNews reports that Rinat Ahmetov has suddenly left Ukraine. He's possibly in London, they say.

 

[ITCC_Andrew]

Wonderful news...

 

[Rage Racer]

Wonderful news...

What news are happy - the release of Philips, or the leaving of Ahmetov too?

 

[Dotini]

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-27503017#

Russia has signed a 30 year natural gas supply deal with China worth an estimated $400,000,000,000.

This will give them the ability to laugh off sanctions, as well as put Germany and the EU, not to mention Ukraine, into an enforced extreme energy austerity regime.

The two nations have also arranged closer foreign policy ties, and are likely looking into alternatives to the dollar for international trading and reserve currency.

Such is the price the Obama women - Victoria Nuland, Catharine Ashton, Samantha Power, Susan Rice and William Hague - are willing for you to pay for their fun little game of regime change.

 

[TenEightyOne]

he British RT journalist, Graham Philips, who was arrested too, is about to be handed to the UK consul.
http://rt.com/news/160476-rt-phillips-uk-consulate/

He's a pretty odious character, I follow his broadcasts (I don't have to agree with him! ), he's not the most neutral observer at times.

 

[ITCC_Andrew]

What news are happy - the release of Philips, or the leaving of Ahmetov too?

Why not both?

He's a pretty odious character, I follow his broadcasts (I don't have to agree with him! ), he's not the most neutral observer at times.

I didn't say that, @Rage Racer did...

 

[SMfan]

Deinstall it, ok, but don't forget to install something not worse instead, to do the same (good) things that the corrupted system had to do. Put Serdyukov to prison already, but keep the military reform going. With Shoigu, who isn't known for such kickbacks. Yet. Who knows...

Of course. I'm just saying that things won't get much better until this system is in place.

Are you so sure that the DPR militia are mercenaries? And if they are, who do you think hired them?

I believe, I already sent you this link, but oh well:
http://slon.ru/russia/iz_kryma_v_do...strelkova_i_aleksandra_borodaya-1099696.xhtml

I have been there once (in Donetsk), but that was a very long time ago.
My father had visited Ukraine a year ago, on his business trip. He said, it's like Russia in the '90s. "We have advanced seriously after the '90s, but they almost didn't. People are still poor there."

Seriously, according to IMF, the only European country that's economically worse than Ukraine, is Moldova.

Ukraine is different. Kiev is in fact a pretty wealthy city. Donetsk, on the other hand... well I already told y'all 'bout the slave labor.

It may be something new for you, but for us, this is obvious. Of course they are bilingual. We have no language barrier with Ukrainians, even the western.
The cause why Ukraine's unity is so cranky today is not the language. And it's not about ethnicity, too.
IMO, it's the stupid actions of Ukraine's current government - to cut away from Russia at Ukraine's own expense, drawing the enemy of RF... and rolling the country deeper into 🤬. Some people did not like it (mostly on the southeast), there were protests, and violence against the protesters (e.g. the massacre in Odessa). Which is another addition of fuel in the fire.

The current stupid actions are a counter-measure to the prevvious stupid actions - to sell Ukraine to Russia.
Also, Russia didn't really wanna talk to the new Kiev either. I mean c'mon, they were showing "Mr. Legitimate" as the actual president of Ukraine.

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-27503017#

Russia has signed a 30 year natural gas supply deal with China worth an estimated $400,000,000,000.

@Dotini, why you gotta talk like a Kremlin journo?
Yeah, Russia did sign a pretty big contract. But for a laughably low price. In fact, a govt-owned company refuses to even name the price. Analytics say it's about $350, which is lower that prices for Europe.

Russia can't just forget about sanctions after this. The transit of gas to China is not the biggest source of income for uor ecenomy. And at this price, a Gas/Oil war declared by the West will kill the Russian economy in 1-2 years.

If we're talking about strategic alliances, China is clearly a worse choice for us. Not even talking about human rights and all that, China, not Europe has a serious over-population problem and a bunch of "historic reasons" to take over any land close to them.

Yes, many (/most/allmost all) European and American politicians are a-holes, but Russia joining up with China (guess who's in position of power there) is a worse situation for Russians. [/rant]

 

[Rage Racer]

I believe, I already sent you this link, but oh well:
http://slon.ru/russia/iz_kryma_v_do...strelkova_i_aleksandra_borodaya-1099696.xhtml

Malofeyev? But why? Is he acting under Kremlin's orders?
Ooh, when I read this arcticle, I really struggle to understand what's going on in Donbass, and who against who. Damn, it's tearing my pattern. Slaviansk vs Donetsk, WTF? Whose side is Ahmetov on, BTW?
It's also a question for me if this article is trustable...

The current stupid actions are a counter-measure to the prevvious stupid actions - to sell Ukraine to Russia.
Also, Russia didn't really wanna talk to the new Kiev either. I mean c'mon, they were showing "Mr. Legitimate" as the actual president of Ukraine.

Selling to Russia or to Europe - is there much difference? I thought Ukrainian people want to be free and independent from everyone.
And, the Maidan was set anti-Russian from its very beginning (not against Russian nation, but against our country). Moskals are blamed on every trouble happened to the Maidummies. It was stared earlier than Crimea was invaded. Remember the pointless claim about Russian cops involved in sniping the Maidan activists, with a fake chevron as a proof? And "who's not jumping is a moskal" even before the "active phase" of Euromaidan? What bad did the moskals do to Ukraine back then?

Russia can't just forget about sanctions after this. The transit of gas to China is not the biggest source of income for uor ecenomy. And at this price, a Gas/Oil war declared by the West will kill the Russian economy in 1-2 years.

An opinion of some "couch economist"?..
Here, Crabbe explains why it's not going to happen.


Putin may be a bastard and a liar, but he's not stupid. He wouldn't make the move to Crimea without counting the consequences. He doesn't want the Russian economy to fall deep in **** - he wants to stay high on the throne. And leave a good mark in the history, along with Catherine II, another Russian emperor who annexed Crimea.

If we're talking about strategic alliances, China is clearly a worse choice for us. Not even talking about human rights and all that, China, not Europe has a serious over-population problem and a bunch of "historic reasons" to take over any land close to them.

Overpopulation? China? Come on.
If you're unaware, the most of the Chinese population is concentrated on the east and south of the country, while the west and north are populated much like Siberia. Doesn't look like they need "any land close" to live on.

India, for example, is 2.5 times smaller and has just a little less population, but they don't seem to prepare for conquering lands to live because theirs is not enough.

guess who's in position of power there

Well, military power? RF of course. Any questions?

 

[SMfan]

Malofeyev? But why? Is he acting under Kremlin's orders?
Ooh, when I read this arcticle, I really struggle to understand what's going on in Donbass, and who against who. Damn, it's tearing my pattern. Slaviansk vs Donetsk, WTF? Whose side is Ahmetov on, BTW?
It's also a question for me if this article is trustable...

It is trustable because it heavily agrees on leaked mail from Igor Girkin. The "trustableness" of his mail was confirmed by the people he wrote to multiple times.

Selling to Russia or to Europe - is there much difference? I thought Ukrainian people want to be free and independent from everyone.

Well, the fact is, Yanukovich took "selling" veeery literally. As in, actively selling Ukrainian companies.

And, the Maidan was set anti-Russian from its very beginning (not against Russian nation, but against our country). Moskals are blamed on every trouble happened to the Maidummies. It was stared earlier than Crimea was invaded. Remember the pointless claim about Russian cops involved in sniping the Maidan activists, with a fake chevron as a proof? And "who's not jumping is a moskal" even before the "active phase" of Euromaidan? What bad did the moskals do to Ukraine back then?

Any radical-nationalist beliefs are stupid. Whether it's "Russians wanna takes us all over", or "Ukrainians are Nazis". Don't really wanna discuss a series of very stupid claims.

An opinion of some "couch economist"?..

So so so not.
An opinion of many actual economists, including ones from my university.

Putin may be a bastard and a liar, but he's not stupid. He wouldn't make the move to Crimea without counting the consequences. He doesn't want the Russian economy to fall deep in **** - he wants to stay high on the throne. And leave a good mark in the history, along with Catherine II, another Russian emperor who annexed Crimea.

And he's also a bit delusional about his abilities and future. Any person of his age after as many years in power will be. Evaluating the consequences doesn't mean evaluating the right.

Overpopulation? China? Come on.
If you're unaware, the most of the Chinese population is concentrated on the east and south of the country, while the west and north are populated much like Siberia. Doesn't look like they need "any land close" to live on.

I didn't mean "china has many peoples. china needs more land". Overpopulation does play a big part in Chinas policies though. Y'know, Siberia and the Russian East are largely populated with Chinese people. And there's a multitude of reasons for China to take peices of Russian land.

Well, military power? RF of course. Any questions?

[/QUOTE]
No questions needed. A Chinese takeover most likely won't be done by straight-up force. The ideal thing for China would be to wait until the Russian economy collapses. That would lead to very dark and scary stuff in Russia, including a destruction of the regime and a chaos of power of some proportions. Such situations have lead to countries being torn apart in the past. China may just offer our Eastern regions better terms.

 

[Rage Racer]

Well, the fact is, Yanukovich took "selling" veeery literally. As in, actively selling Ukrainian companies.

But now, Ukrainian energetics are being literally bought by the West. The gas production already is:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-...-son-joins-board-largest-ukraine-gas-producer

And the nuclear power is about to get sold, too.

Overpopulation does play a big part in Chinas policies though.

It's not overpopulation, it's more of the philosophy of Confucianism. "One who's not persistant at the small, rarely successes at the large." The Damansky island was that kind of "small". It doesn't solve the overpopulation problem, right?
On a site note, China has territorial disputes with ALL of its neighbours... except for Russia. All border disputes with RF have been already solved.

Y'know, Siberia and the Russian East are largely populated with Chinese people. And there's a multitude of reasons for China to take peices of Russian land.

Naaw. That's a stereotype.
First, far not largely. There are more of Chinese in New York than in the whole Russian Far East. And they populate it irregularly - there are lots of them in Khabarovsk, but pretty little of them in Vladivostok - even Tajiks are more common there.
Second, they don't really populate this area. Most of them just come for a few month, to earn some money, sell their Abibas and other made-in-china BS and go away. One swarm comes one other leaves. And they are no citizens of RF, so de-jure they don't even exist here.

More details about the "Chinese threat" - here.

The ideal thing for China would be to wait until the Russian economy collapses. That would lead to very dark and scary stuff in Russia, including a destruction of the regime and a chaos of power of some proportions.

Isn't it what we already had in 1991-93? But nobody conquered us back then.
Even in this case, the army can still kick ass. And the Red Button is still under someone's hand. One would never try to check if the nukes are ready to launch or not...

 

[ITCC_Andrew]

I'm curious (there wouldn't be data yet, would there?) about how this whole thing is affecting tourism. There was a time when I dreamed of traveling to Russia to hear the language and see the women (I hear they are both quite lovely) but I wouldn't dream of it right now.

 

[TenEightyOne]

I'm curious (there wouldn't be data yet, would there?) about how this whole thing is affecting tourism. There was a time when I dreamed of traveling to Russia to hear the language and see the women (I hear they are both quite lovely) but I wouldn't dream of it right now.

Why on earth not? Russia's twice the size of America, you'll find plenty of quiet places. It's not as if the entire landmass is at war. It's ethnologically (if not ethnically) diverse too so you'll find plenty of women that take one's fancy

The Foreign Office's advice doesn't look too worrying for much of the country.

 

[ITCC_Andrew]

I just mean, in terms of Vladimir cheesy fries ruining it before I have enough saved to visit.

 

[Rage Racer]

I'm curious (there wouldn't be data yet, would there?) about how this whole thing is affecting tourism. There was a time when I dreamed of traveling to Russia to hear the language and see the women (I hear they are both quite lovely) but I wouldn't dream of it right now.

Why?

I just mean, in terms of Vladimir cheesy fries ruining it before I have enough saved to visit.

But, being serious - I see nothing bad coming here.
Even if a local war conflict occurs anywhere else, it won't ruin the country of course. A total war? Nope. One must be a clinical idiot to try invading Russia itself. RVSN is on the guard.

 

[DK]

Perhaps Andrew's referring to Vlad's authoritarian tendencies.

 

[ITCC_Andrew]

 

[Dotini]

...Vlad's authoritarian tendencies.

Perhaps Stalin exercised too much authority, and Gorbachev too little. Still in a world where might makes right and ends justify means, Putin will strike his own balance. He is perceived by most Americans as a strong leader, and obviously widely admired by his own people. I think he is owed a cameo role in Game of Thrones; Khal Vlad, Dothraki warlord.

Obama gets a role as a Pentoshi cheese merchant.

 

[Rage Racer]

Perhaps Andrew's referring to Vlad's authoritarian tendencies.

What's bad about it for tourists?..