Russian Invasion of Ukraine

[DK]

@Rage Racer: Every now and then I wonder how deep Putin's fist is up your ass.

You're not suggesting the ultra-macho Vlad has fallen for "homosexual propaganda", are you?

 

[axletramp]

Maybe it's a surprise for you, but Russian military does not have personal GPS on every soldier. The paratroopers were captured with their own documents, and their guns were unloaded. Would they go invading someone in that condition?

Invading? No. Knew exactly where they were? Yes.

 

[TenEightyOne]

The problem is, I think NATO takes info from Ukrainian sources, considering them valid.

No, one of the good things about NATO as a leadership (especially under Rasmussen) is their studied impartiality above any individual interest of a member.

Do I have access to the full raft of NATO evidence they refer to? Of course not. All we have is NATO's word against Putin's, NATO say there are Russian troops and/or equipment in Ukraine, Putin says there aren't.

Whenever we see Russian troops or equipment in Ukraine you say it's an accident, they ran out of gas, their tux didn't come back from the cleaners and so on.

The Russian line isn't really ringing true right now. I'm not saying they're on another stampede to Berlin but the constant denials of Russian action seem to ring more and more hollow.

 

[VolkswagenX]

And, by the way, if Russia did invade, don’t you think it would do it in strength rather than a couple of tanks here and a gun or two there? No wonder the Russians are laughing at this “evidence”; this isn’t evidence of anything except how gullible NATO thinks its taxpayers are.

http://russia-insider.com/en/ukrain...ence_russian_invasion_completely_unconvincing

 

[Rage Racer]

Invading? No. Knew exactly where they were? Yes.

Then what's the reason for a group of soldiers to go to a foreign land with unloaded guns on purpose, knowing that country will not tolerate their presence?
Have you seen what does the Russian-Ukrainian border look like? It's not barbed wire everywhere.
Have you ever walked in a deep forest (or any Russian forest)?

No, one of the good things about NATO as a leadership (especially under Rasmussen) is their studied impartiality above any individual interest of a member.

Do I have access to the full raft of NATO evidence they refer to? Of course not. All we have is NATO's word against Putin's, NATO say there are Russian troops and/or equipment in Ukraine, Putin says there aren't.

Why don't they reveal that evidence? Why does it only looks like "Russia invades, there are Russian tanks, Russian soldiers, blah blah blah". Where the hell are they? They have Stealth Camo like in MGS that only didn't work on ten soldiers?

Whenever we see Russian troops or equipment in Ukraine you say it's an accident, they ran out of gas, their tux didn't come back from the cleaners and so on.

No. About the equipment, I say it is supplied to Novorossian rebels, and it belongs to them (these tanks have emblems used by DPR/LPR militia units).
About the soldiers - tell me a reason why they could not really get lost.

P.S. Some of you guys may be thinking I'm doing nuclear trolling here. I'm actually not. I'm just trying to find out, what convinces you of a Russian invasion happening, if it's not only propaganda. Your statements are all about "Ukraine says that, X reports that, Y says that, everyone says that, only Russia denies that! This is obvious!". Only words, but no pics/vids. I've never knew such an invisible invasion before. An invasion only visible on news.

 

[TenEightyOne]

@Rage Racer, what do you make of these? (Link)

 

[Rage Racer]

@Rage Racer, what do you make of these? (Link)

It's claimed to be self-propelled artillery, and what we see there is 2S19 Msta-S self-propelled howitzers and their supply vehicles. But where are tanks? Where are APCs? Where is aviation (Grach attack planes, MiGs to cover them)?

Some kind of strange invasion, with artillery only. Don't you think?
It may be a fire support for the rebels, which may be called an invasion in some way, but it's not like "Russia is going to seize control on this land".
Don't forget, Ukrainians were shelling the RF territory several times, too. But nobody called that an invasion.

 

[TenEightyOne]

It's claimed to be self-propelled artillery, and what we see there is 2S19 Msta-S self-propelled howitzers and their supply vehicles. But where are tanks? Where are APCs? Where is aviation (Grach attack planes, MiGs to cover them)?

Some kind of strange invasion, with artillery only. Don't you think?
It may be a fire support for the rebels, which may be called an invasion in some way, but it's not like "Russia is going to seize control on this land".
Don't forget, Ukrainians were shelling the RF territory several times, too. But nobody called that an invasion.

You seem to agree at last that the equipment exists and is there. I don't think I called it an invasion, and I didn't think that was a word you were refuting.

I strongly believe the evidence that's being presented in favour of the argument that Russian units are operating in Ukraine. I'm not talking about invading, or long term control, I'm talking about military support of Ukrainian operations to whatever mutual end.

 

[Rage Racer]

I'm not talking about invading, or long term control, I'm talking about military support of Ukrainian operations to whatever mutual end.

That's what I don't deny and what Russian mass media prefers not to talk about. But you were saying 'invasion' before.

Anyway, most people are so negative about 'Russia is invading'. I think it wouldn't be bad if it was true. Somebody's gotta stop Ukraine (I mean the new Kievan regime) from slaughtering the civilians of Donbass. But, sadly, it's very unlikely to happen. There is no practical reason for RF to intervene. Why?

First, it'll be not as legal as it was in the South Ossetian conflict. There were no sanctions imposed on Russia for invading Georgia in 2008, remember? But this time, it's not that easy. There are no Russian peacekeepers and almost no Russian citizens to protect in that area. The West thinks Ukraine has the right to kill its own citizens. So, the sanctions will raise to entirely new stage.

Second: by invading Ukraine, Putin will be doing a great gift to the Poroshenko's regime. The country is running deeper and deeper into ****. Hrivna is falling, pensions and salaries are going down, prices are going up, nothing to pay for the Russian gas with (so Gazprom shut it down for Ukraine). Who is to blame for all of this? Russians, of course. If they intervene, Ukrainian people will be convinced that it's all Moscow's fault, not Kiev's own.

Ukrainian govt understands it well, so they keep telling about "Russia is invading" and provoking actual invasion.

 

[Dotini]

I predict they will negotiate a sudden and miraculous deal - right about when the cold weather sets in.

 

[VolkswagenX]

Do you guys love western hypocrisy as much as I do? The west arming a fundamentalist rebel group in Syria to force regime change is good.

Russia arming the people of novorossiya to give them a chance against a western backed Kiev government who has been shooting at civilians is wrong.

I also love how the media reports on this problem. They mention a refugee problem, then forget to mention that the majority flees to Russia. They report about bombardments, but forget to mention it's the Ukrainian army bombarding civilians.

 

[Carlos]

Do you guys love western hypocrisy as much as I do? The west arming a fundamentalist rebel group in Syria to force regime change is good.

Russia arming the people of novorossiya to give them a chance against a western backed Kiev government who has been shooting at civilians is wrong.

I also love how the media reports on this problem. They mention a refugee problem, then forget to mention that the majority flees to Russia. They report about bombardments, but forget to mention it's the Ukrainian army bombarding civilians.

The people just want Russia to be the bad guy.. Russia is almost a synonym for something bad happening. Even my dad with his military background and a lot of deployment time in the east is thinking like that.

 

[Rage Racer]

10 signs of a Russian invasion

This Thursday, the Ukrainian government that the NATO head used to echo, has claimed that the Russian military is already acting on Ukrainian territory. Maybe it's true, maybe it's not - how to find out? They say the same as they used to say earlier - on 13th of August, on 17th - and every time, there is no evidence for their words at all.

But let's help them clear it up. You'll be the judge. A useful list of ten clear signs that will let you easily determine, did Russia really invade Ukraine or it's just another hog-wash. If Russia really invaded Ukraine this Thursday, this is how the situation would look today:

1. Ukrainian artillery would shut up immideately. There would be no more shelling of civilian living areas in Donetsk and Luhansk. Since the location of the artillery is already known by the beginning of the operation, they would be wiped out with airstrikes, artillery and tactical missiles by noon of Thursday as the first priority targets. The local civilians would celebrate the end of their nightmares.

2. Ground force activity in Donetsk and Luhansk regions would change dramatically. The resistance fighters used to operate with small groups, but the Russian army operates with batallions of 400 men in each and lots of armored vehicles, followed by supply convoys (fuel tankers, field kitchens, field hospitals and so on). A constant flow of vehicles over here and over there - it's seen easily from the air and will be confirmed by satellite images. Massive radio transmission activity - all conversations in Russian, anyone can intercept and listen in. The operation would be impossible to keep unnoticed.

3. Ukrainian military would start to disappear massively. Soldiers and officers would lay their gears off, throw their weapons away to blend with civilians. Nobody thinks that resistance to the Russian troops would cause any positive consequences. The only victory of Ukrainians against Russia was in the Konotop battle in 1659, when Ukrainians were in union with the powerful Crimean Khanate. But this time, Crimea is not on Ukraine's side.

4. Russian checkpoints would be everywhere. Civilians would be being passed through, but anyone associated with the government would be detained for interrogation. A filtration system would be created to return forcibly drafted recruits to their home regions and put volunteers and officers to pretrial detention centers to investigate them for involvement in war crimes.

5. Most Ukrainian border checkpoints would be under Russian control. Most of them would be reinforced with AA defense units, artillery battaries and tank batallions to prevent any NATO forces from attempts to stop the invasion. Civilian and humanitarian cargo would be being passed through, businessmen too, but only after filling special registration forms (in Russian).

6. Russia would set a no-fly-zone in Ukrainian airspace. All civilian flights would be cancelled. A number of US State Department employees, CIA agents and Western journos would get stuck in the Borispol airport. Many of them would be nervously calling all their contacts with mobile phones. The Western politicians would be requesting immidiate evacuation, but get detained by Russian law enforcers for investigation of their possible involvement in war crimes.

7. Ukrainian speaking heads like president Poroshenko, prime minister Yatsenyuk and others would no longer be available for interviews to Western media. Nobody would know where are they. There would be rumors that they've run away from the country. Mobs would be assaulting their abandoned estates and get surprised by the golden toilets inside. None of Ukrainian oligarchs would be possible to see, except for the warlord Igor Kolomoyski, who would be found in his residence, abandoned by his guards and died of heart attack.

8. About 800,000 Ukrainian refugees would start to return from Russia. They're living in camp towns now, and before cold weather sets in, they'd prefer to get back home, because the shellings and bombings are now over. They would be followed by constructor brigades, trucks with cement, pipes, cables and rebars to repair the damages caused by Ukrainian fire.

9. All types of diplomatic and military activity would be visible all over the world, especially in Europe and the USA. NATO forces would be set on high alert, diplomats would be flying around with conferences. President Obama would set a press conference, to announce: "We have no strategy on Ukraine yet". His military advisors would tell him that his usual strategy - "to bomb a little and see what happens" - will not work here.

10. Kiev would surrender. Russian tanks would be on the Maidan square. Russian infantry would be catching the remains of the Ukrainian national guard. Curfew would be set in the city. The operation of Kiev assault would be like 'Shock and Awe' in Baghdad - a few loud strikes, then - whining.

With this list, you'll easily determine if Russia really invaded Ukraine on Thursday (or any time else).
Author: Dmitry Orlov

 

[Scaff]

That's rather assuming a conventional invasion, which may not be the case.

If the Russian aim was to cause a stalemate situation that effectively forced the 'Statehood' of the East to become the only viable option, then low level use of Russian infantry units only would be an ideal way to go.

Now 'if' that has occurred you can argue if its an 'Intervention' or an 'Invasion', all I'm saying is that the options you have outlined above are not the only ones.

 

[Dotini]

Over the last few days, Putin has been talking about his great nuclear power, that he could take Kiev in two weeks, and about a "New Russia", or Novorossya in the Ukraine. This is the stick.

In Minsk they are talking about a unified Ukraine (minus Crimea) with significant autonomy for Donetsk and Luhansk, including Russian language and the election of their own security bosses. And Ukraine gets peace, its economy restored and its gas supple assured. This is the carrot.

Just yet Poroshenko seems undecided, even though he is under great pressure.

 

[prisonermonkeys]

The Ukrainians say they have reached a "permanent ceasefire" with the Russians. The Kremlin denies this, but then, they can't admit it without admitting to deploying soldiers in Donbass.

 

[Rage Racer]

The Ukrainians say they have reached a "permanent ceasefire" with the Russians. The Kremlin denies this, but then, they can't admit it without admitting to deploying soldiers in Donbass.

Sure. Ukrainians can't lie. They are friends of the kind and democratic West, and Russians are homophobic communists who can never be trusted. Right?

I think it must be obvious that Poroshenko finally found his claim - "Russia attacks!!111" - idiotic, and is trying to back off by telling "okay, there'll be no more Russian troops, we've signed a truce with them!". Which means, no more troops - no more need to find evidence of their presence. The RF Genshtab must be laughing hard on this story.

If the Russian aim was to cause a stalemate situation that effectively forced the 'Statehood' of the East to become the only viable option, then low level use of Russian infantry units only would be an ideal way to go.

How? Ten soldiers here, ten soldiers there - is that effective?
Military advisors/instructors - maybe. But infantry? It's not used like that. In theory, if Kremlin decided to carry out some 'Black Ops', they would deploy some Special Operation Forces (SSO) units (not those dull VDV troopers with unloaded guns). But again, this needs some evidence, which is not seen at all. Unless the Barmitsa equipment kit includes Stealth Camo.

Over the last few days, Putin has been talking about his great nuclear power, that he could take Kiev in two weeks, and about a "New Russia", or Novorossya in the Ukraine. This is the stick.

In Minsk they are talking about a unified Ukraine (minus Crimea) with significant autonomy for Donetsk and Luhansk, including Russian language and the election of their own security bosses. And Ukraine gets peace, its economy restored and its gas supple assured. This is the carrot.

Just yet Poroshenko seems undecided, even though he is under great pressure.

I don't like the idea of Ukraine's collapse, too. If Novorossiya leaders admit they cannot exist on their own (without becoming a dull, poor, unrecognized 'state' like Transnistria), they may stay with Ukraine in extended autonomy. But they don't seem to be accepting this (some DPR official, I don't remember which one, said: "We're not a part of the Ukrainian Federation. Ukraine probably will become a federal state one day, but we're not going to be a part of it".
Something tells me that they'll have to get over their pride one day.

An interesting detail: Poroshenko wants to get Ukraine into EU and NATO. But membership in these organisations requires to have no territorial disputes. So, Petro must either set the asses afire all over the country and admit the loss of Crimea, or leave that idea.

 

[prisonermonkeys]

Sure. Ukrainians can't lie. They are friends of the kind and democratic West, and Russians are homophobic communists who can never be trusted. Right?

I think it must be obvious that Poroshenko finally found his claim - "Russia attacks!!111" - idiotic, and is trying to back off by telling "okay, there'll be no more Russian troops, we've signed a truce with them!". Which means, no more troops - no more need to find evidence of their presence.

You do realise that everything that you say is as absurd as everything you claim is absurd from the Ukrainians, right?

If the foreign soldiers in the Ukraine who look like Russians, act like Russians and carry Russian hardware are not, in fact, Russians, then who are they ... and how come the Russians can't prove that it's not them?

 

[Rage Racer]

who look like Russians

act like Russians

How? Leaving empty vodka bottles?

and carry Russian hardware are not, in fact, Russians, then who are they ... and how come the Russians can't prove that it's not them?

Viet Cong armies used Soviet hardware, too. Does it make them Russians?
Afghan guerillas used Stinger missiles. Does it make them Americans?

Yes, there are some Russians there. Volunteers from Russia. Russians, Ukrainians (Russian Ukrainians), Chechens, Ossetians and others. There are even volunteers from other countries - Belarus, Poland, Serbia ("Jovan Sevic batallion") and even Spain, France, and at least one from Germany. I don't think they all receive orders from Kremlin (I just don't believe the mythical "Kremlin's hand" is so long and powerful). Would you approve sanctions on all countries allowing volunteers to the war zone?

 

[Swagger897]

@Rage Racer obviously you have never heard of the duck test:
"If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then it probably is a duck"

 

[prisonermonkeys]

Well done, sir. I was expecting something suitably ridiculous, like "the Ukrainians dressed up as Russians and invaded Russia without anyone noticing, and then turned around and invaded the Ukraine and made sure everyone noticed", and you still managed to top that.

Why is it, that for all of the denials and the insistence that the Ukrainians are fabricating evidence, Russia hasn't been able to present a shred of proof supporting this? Nobody except Russia believes that Russia is not interfering in the Ukraine.

 

[Rage Racer]

@Rage Racer obviously you have never heard of the duck test:
"If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then it probably is a duck"

Yes it is a duck. So what?
The problem is, some people here think that "Russians" and "Russian army" are same thing. I must be acting under Putin's orders too, according to this.

And, by the way, on the most videos with the separatists, where you hear them talking, I can hear clear Ukrainian accent. Which means, they are Russian-speaking Ukrainians - the majority populating the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. So, it doesn't always quack like a duck.

Why is it, that for all of the denials and the insistence that the Ukrainians are fabricating evidence, Russia hasn't been able to present a shred of proof supporting this? Nobody except Russia believes that Russia is not interfering in the Ukraine.

What evidence?
Ukrainians don't even fabricate the evidence - they don't have it at all. All they make is claims like "we've just killed 1000000 Russian soldiers, but we ain't gonna prove that!"
How can you bust evidence that doesn't even exist?

 

[VolkswagenX]

@Rage Racer obviously you have never heard of the duck test:
"If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then it probably is a duck"

That sounds like the Russophobic version of the duck test. Russophobes trying to convince that the dog is a duck. Then people come with evidence and try to explain to the Russophobes that the dog is actually a dog and not a duck. The Russophobes then put their fingers in their ears and keep yelling its a duck till everybody gets sick of them and just go along with the Russophobes in the hopes they will shut up.

This doesnt happen, they bring in more animals and start calling them ducks to.

Anyway; act 9: NATO expansion ( the elephant in the room) ?

 

[Dotini]

Anyway; act 9: NATO expansion ( the elephant in the room) ?

No. There will be no further NATO expansion, as in no more member states.
Will NATO bluster, puff and move men and equipment around? Yes, but it means nothing.

 

[Dennisch]

@Rage Racer obviously you have never heard of the duck test:
"If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then it probably is a duckface Putin"

I fixed that for you.

 

[Denur]

I fixed that for you.

Cannot unsee a duckfaced Putin. Oops, just added some lipstick.

 

[Swagger897]

Yes it is a duck. So what?
The problem is, some people here think that "Russians" and "Russian army" are same thing. I must be acting under Putin's orders too, according to this.

Ummm... that's most likely because they are. I could be German and join the American army, and I am then an American soldier, for the American army.

The same for Russia. A German can join the Russian army, and be a Russian soldier, for the Russian army...

 

[prisonermonkeys]

I was wondering why Rage Racer's explanation seemed do familiar. Then it hit me - it's basically the plot of THE EXPENDABLES.

 

[Rage Racer]

Ummm... that's most likely because they are. I could be German and join the American army, and I am then an American soldier, for the American army.

The same for Russia. A German can join the Russian army, and be a Russian soldier, for the Russian army...

That's it. If a Russian joins the Novorossian militia, he is a Novorossian soldier (or militant/rebel/insurgent/separatist/whoever you like), not a "Russian soldier". Agree?

I was wondering why Rage Racer's explanation seemed do familiar. Then it hit me - it's basically the plot of THE EXPENDABLES.

Uhm... I thought it was your assumption that those ten paratroopers were there to invade, because they were so awesome that ten of them would be enough for the mission. That team included a Russian Chuck Norris, Russian Jason Statham, Russian Arnie and more. But something went wrong and they got captured. Right?
Or I misunderstand something and you mean an explanation for something other (what?)?
Also, what part of The Expendables do you mean?

Also, I'm still waiting for that Ukrainian 'evidence' you were talking about.

And, BTW, you were saying "they look like Russians, act like Russians..."
May I ask you, how do you tell a Russian apart from a Ukrainian, or a Pole for example (by how he looks, and how he acts)?

I'm sorry to ask so many questions in a row, but I'd really like to know.

Anyway; act 9: NATO expansion ( the elephant in the room) ?

Nawp. Ukraine cannot into NATO. I alredy told why:

An interesting detail: Poroshenko wants to get Ukraine into EU and NATO. But membership in these organisations requires to have no territorial disputes. So, Petro must either set the asses afire all over the country and admit the loss of Crimea, or leave that idea.

 

[Scaff]

Well it would appear that the Russian states view on gay rights is being repeated in Crimea.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...e-in-crackdown-on-lgbt-community-9709289.html