Scottish Independence

Do you support Scotland's independence?

  • Yes

    Votes: 16 45.7%

  • No

    Votes: 10 28.6%

  • Maybe

    Votes: 5 14.3%

  • Don't care

    Votes: 4 11.4%
  • Total voters
    35
Indeed. There seems to be a persecution complex emanating from the SNP.

Except for the very last part, which I find awkward, this sums it up rather well.

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Eh... Personally, I don't think the Scots nationalising oil production in their territory in the event of independence would be at all unreasonable. I'm not saying that it would be a good thing or a bad thing necessarily, but they'd have every right to do it, and after how Thatcher messed up the treatment of Britain's North Sea Oil Assets, I'd struggle to blame them.
 
Reports this morning suggested that Jim Sillars had back-pedalled on his remarks regarding a 'day of reckoning' for businesses in an independent Scotland, but those appear to have been wrong. Sillars appeared on BBC News this morning and, far from back-pedalling on his remarks, he reinforced them with the claim that David Cameron is orchestrating a fear campaign and is 'trying to make us the most frightened people on Earth'. I find that last remark to be absolutely outrageous...
 
Roger the Horse
Eh... Personally, I don't think the Scots nationalising oil production in their territory in the event of independence would be at all unreasonable.
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Gloriously unacheiveable though.

Have they bothered to explain how they'd go about it? Only it's quite difficult to get oil and gas out of undersea rocks and get it onto the land and this means they'll have to do one of three things:
1. Nationalise the process; Set up Scottish Oil, buy up lots of equipment and personnel. Pricey.
2. Nationalise BP; Buy a majority share in BP and [Phase 2], then let them continue. Very pricey.
3. Nationalise extraction; Rip up the existing exploration and extraction contracts and make new ones with a greater share going into the public pot. Put the extraction rights out to private tender and watch as either the same companies come in with lower bids (to keep profit margins) or no-one bothers because they're priced out of the North Sea. Pricey in terms of the bureaucracy of the process and lost revenue and then pricey again because they have to do #1 instead.


Still, Salmond has a valuable ally now...

And just to clear up the EU issue - independent Scotland would not automatically be a member of the EU.
 
There's a load of expats from other European countries here in Bratislava and I've had the good fortune to meet a fair few other Britons out here. All of the Scots I have met have said how disappointed and angry they are at not being allowed to vote on the referendum. They could end up going back home eventually to a completely different country on which they have not at all been consulted. Who knows what will happen to their passports in the event of a Yes vote?
 
Liquid
There's a load of expats from other European countries here in Bratislava and I've had the good fortune to meet a fair few other Britons out here. All of the Scots I have met have said how disappointed and angry they are at not being allowed to vote on the referendum. They could end up going back home eventually to a completely different country on which they have not at all been consulted. Who knows what will happen to their passports in the event of a Yes vote?
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All current UK passport holders living in Scotland will qualify for a Scottish passport as will anyone born in Scotland - whether or not they can take up a Scottish passport and retain their UK passports remains to be seen, and it will presumably not be up to the Scottish government to decide that.

Jim Sillars says that Scots will retain their EU citizenship because it says that we are EU citizens on our UK passports...
 
There is little doubt that an independent Scotland will become a full member of EU... eventually - no-one on the No campaign will deny that. But there are big question marks about how long it will take, what will be the effect on Scottish businesses in the interim, and on what terms will Scotland be accepted/admitted. There are likely to be problems ahead, and the longer it takes to negotiate, the bigger the effects on Scottish companies in the meantime. Salmond and the SNP have already said (contrary to previous policy) that an independent Scotland will not use the Euro, despite that being a key stipulation for any new member states. They cite Sweden as an example of a nation that has entered the EU without taking on the Euro, but neglect to point out that Sweden are legally obliged to take the Euro at some point in the future, as Scotland would undoubtedly be obliged to as well. So much for keeping the pound then and avoiding all the "chaos" of not keeping the pound (their words, not mine).

It doesn't take a genius to work out why the SNP are gambling on the idea that Scotland will "retain" EU citizenship, arguing that Scots are currently EU citizens and that it is contrary to "logic" and "common sense", as well as the EU ethos of inclusion and expansion, and that there's no way the EU will allow 5 million citizens to be expelled - even though they wouldn't be expelling anyone - "we" (and I use the term 'we' very loosely) will have voted to leave an EU member state and become an entirely new sovereign state in the eyes of international law... it may well be desirable, common sense, or even logical to allow Scotland to stay within the EU, but it is probably (if not certainly) not legal or possible given current EU law and procedures. Scotland will almost certainly have to apply for EU membership - and she will get it eventually - but at what cost, and on whose terms?
 
Touring Mars
Everybody except for the SNP are saying that this is not the case.
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Really? Have a wee poke around & you will find a fair few people with expertise in the matter who do in fact give a different opinion. This is the case with pretty much everything in the debate. Both sides are equally guilty of pretending "their" experts are the best.
Only one post tonight you will all be glad to know.
 
jackargent
Really? Have a wee poke around & you will find a fair few people with expertise in the matter who do in fact give a different opinion. This is the case with pretty much everything in the debate. Both sides are equally guilty of pretending "their" experts are the best.
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They must have missed the letters from Vivianne Redding, the Vice-President of the European Commission; Justice, Fundamental Rights and Citizenship, who says that Scotland's secession from the UK will put it outside the EU and Scottish citizens will not be entitled to be EU citizens any more. I linked to them earlier.

In other news, the BBC, the Tories, UK supermarkets, UK businesses, UK banks Deutsche Bank says independence is a wrong turn.
 
Famine
They must have missed the letters from Vivianne Redding, the Vice-President of the European Commission; Justice, Fundamental Rights and Citizenship, who says that Scotland's secession from the UK will put it outside the EU and Scottish citizens will not be entitled to be EU citizens any more. I linked to them earlier.

In other news, the BBC, the Tories, UK supermarkets, UK businesses, UK banks Deutsche Bank says independence is a wrong turn.
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You have just proved my point perfectly by pretending the sources you have quoted are the only expert opinions. I could give you some links from eminent people who have a quite different opinion, but a) I am knackered & b) I am concentrating my efforts on talking to folk who have a vote.

And as for lectures from banks as to what will or won't cause a recession, you'll excuse me is I pass on that. Isn't it strange that the UK media's opinion of the banks has suddenly & inexplicably risen.

Oh, by the way, haven't heard much about these amazing new powers we were promised! I wanted invisibility!

Night night
 
jackargent
You have just proved my point perfectly by pretending the sources you have quoted are the only expert opinions. I could give you some links from eminent people who have a quite different opinion, but a) I am knackered & b) I am concentrating my efforts on talking to folk who have a vote.
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Just take another look at who it was who wrote the letters...

You're welcome to disagree. You're welcome to find professors and lawyers who have different opinions, but when the person who actually decides these things in practice says that this is how it is, disagreeing is kinda moot.

I believe Spain, who have the power of veto, have said they would veto Scotland's entry to the EU - mindful of the Basque and Catalan issues in Spain - though I'd have to dig harder for that in writing. Belgium (Wallonia) and Germany (Bavaria) are also having reported domestic secessional murmurings...
jackargent
And as for lectures from banks as to what will or won't cause a recession, you'll excuse me is I pass on that. Isn't it strange that the UK media's opinion of the banks has suddenly & inexplicably risen.
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I think you missed the part where that report didn't come from the UK media or a UK bank. Or one that had to be bailed out by its government...

You're welcome to throw it away as biased if you wish - though it makes for interesting reading...
The economic and financial arguments against independence are overwhelming. But we prefer to conclude by marveling at the three hundred years in which everyone has benefited from Scotland being part of the Union. The free movement of people has allowed greater innovation as network effects become multiplied. These can be seen, for example, in world - class universities on both sides of the border and in the spillover effect northward of London’s financial centre status. Scotland has been able to punch above its weight via the platform of the UK and associated global trade and economic relationships. Finally, Scots have benefited from the sharing of fiscal and monetary risk. To end this relationship is simply a wrong turn.
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Have a look at the figures for the Scottish economy had they not shared the UK's recession but simply been a part of the global one on its own. It's kinda chilling - the RBS bailout wouldn't have even happened.

As part of the UK, Scotland is better able to fight for what it wants on the international stage - though it doesn't quite get everything it wants and nor does The Kingdom. Individually we'll get less because we have less to fight with - and yes, I'm including The Kingdom in that because without Scotland, a strong exporter, we'll be weaker too.


As I said much earlier in the thread, I entirely get the desire to be free of Westminster - we want it too and we're a great deal closer to Scotland than to Westminster - but it strikes me that the Yes campaign, Salmond particularly are absolutely delusional about what it means legally and economically and on the international stage.

And the No campaign has been rubbish. And using Gordon Brown - the last Scotsman to occupy the Prime Minister's chair and key figure in utterly destroying the UK economy by selling all the gold at the lowest market price in history - as the face of anything except punchbags is just as delusional.


I think Salmond can't see any further than himself as leader of Free Scotland shaking hands with Barack Obama on the White House lawn.
 
Famine
I think Salmond can't see any further than himself as leader of Free Scotland shaking hands with Barack Obama on the White House lawn.
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Heralding the start of St. Andrew's Day being taken more seriously, in a commercialised kind of way, over there. Fake blue dye in rivers, blue milkshakes and Ally's Tartan Army outfits galore.
 
The problem with countries totally reliant on oil export is that it is a very volatile commodity. Sure you can say look at countries like Bahrain, Qatar, UAE etc and say they are damn rich and doing well but the reality is even they can see a future without oil driving their economies.

This why places like Dubai have been ploughing money into making it a financial centre, tourist destination because the demand for oil and even the oil itself won't last forever. If in the next 10, 20, 30 years demand for oil drops... maybe on the back of advancements in renewable energy and electric cars etc what will Scotland have to support itself? Whisky and Salmon are not going to run the economy and it's hardly a sunny hot resort location.

Also don't forget that North Sea Oil production yields have halved in the last 40 years so even if there is demand Scotland might simply not have enough, or new plentiful cheaper supplies from other countries maybe found.
 
Robin.
The problem with countries totally reliant on oil export is that it is a very volatile commodity. Sure you can say look at countries like Bahrain, Qatar, UAE etc and say they are damn rich and doing well but the reality is even they can see a future without oil driving their economies.

This why places like Dubai have been ploughing money into making it a financial centre, tourist destination because the demand for oil and even the oil itself won't last forever. If in the next 10, 20, 30 years demand for oil drops... maybe on the back of advancements in renewable energy and electric cars etc what will Scotland have to support itself? Whisky and Salmon are not going to run the economy and it's hardly a sunny hot resort location.

Also don't forget that North Sea Oil production yields have halved in the last 40 years so even if there is demand Scotland might simply not have enough, or new plentiful cheaper supplies from other countries maybe found.
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is 15% of our income "totally reliant"?

like everything in this debate there is a wide range of opinions on the future amount & value of oil. i almost feel i am unique in noticing that there is a range of opinions & estimates. like i said before both sides tend to pretend only their experts count.

Even when you tell them that they just come back & quote their own experts at you. It's quite funny.
 
Scottish independence. I have said this once and I will say it again.

I don't think Salmond actually expects to win. He is using this as a bargening tool.

At the end he is going to say 35% or however many voted yes and this is a perfect reason why we need more devolution.
And the Tories are falling right into it.

Edit make that Tories, Labour and Lib Dems.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-29213418
 
haitch40
Scottish independence. I have said this once and I will say it again.

I don't think Salmond actually expects to win. He is using this as a bargening tool.

At the end he is going to say 35% or however many voted yes and this is a perfect reason why we need more devolution.
And the Tories are falling right into it.

Edit make that Tories, Labour and Lib Dems.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-29213418
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have you read that link?

it includes this "the UK exists to ensure opportunity and security for all by sharing our resources equitably".

Yeah, and the death star will sing you a lullaby & rock you to sleep

I think you 35% may be a little bit out. hopefully by about 20% ... but then I am an optimist
 
Robin.
The problem with countries totally reliant on oil export is that it is a very volatile commodity. Sure you can say look at countries like Bahrain, Qatar, UAE etc and say they are damn rich and doing well but the reality is even they can see a future without oil driving their economies.

This why places like Dubai have been ploughing money into making it a financial centre, tourist destination because the demand for oil and even the oil itself won't last forever. If in the next 10, 20, 30 years demand for oil drops... maybe on the back of advancements in renewable energy and electric cars etc what will Scotland have to support itself? Whisky and Salmon are not going to run the economy and it's hardly a sunny hot resort location.

Also don't forget that North Sea Oil production yields have halved in the last 40 years so even if there is demand Scotland might simply not have enough, or new plentiful cheaper supplies from other countries maybe found.
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All Scotland has to do is get rid of crazy English taxes and they'd attract every european corporation like flies on ****.

I can't see a downside to Scotland being independent. That is, unless the whole country is on english welfare.
 
Omnis
I can't see a downside to Scotland being independent.
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A financial omnishambles of no credit rating, no central bank, refusal to accept any sovereign debt with two of its major banks being partialy state-owned, retaining British currency yet 'automatically' joining the EU therefore consequentially joining the Euro and the threat of nationalising the oil fields don't make for a rosy future.

Being independent could be fine in principle, but with zero planning and no grasp of the reality of an independence movement, it is not advisable at this point in time.
 
jackargent
is 15% of our income "totally reliant"?

like everything in this debate there is a wide range of opinions on the future amount & value of oil. i almost feel i am unique in noticing that there is a range of opinions & estimates. like i said before both sides tend to pretend only their experts count.

Even when you tell them that they just come back & quote their own experts at you. It's quite funny.
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In 2007, construction accounted for 25% of Ireland's economy. It fell to 6% by 2012, and I'd hazard a guess that should Scotland run out of oil (or demand for oil collapses), it would be just as devastating to it as the burst of the construction bubble was to us.
 
DK
In 2007, construction accounted for 25% of Ireland's economy. It fell to 6% by 2012, and I'd hazard a guess that should Scotland run out of oil (or demand for oil collapses), it would be just as devastating to it as the burst of the construction bubble was to us.
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Bubbles burst because of speculation. It would translate to Scotland's oil situation, only if the oil is in a speculation bubble. (I don't know whether it is or isn't.) Oil extraction/production doesn't disappear overnight, with a cliff, like a speculation bubble bursting. (It's also unlikely that demand would simply drop off dramatically & suddenly.)
The housing bubble in Ireland, as in the U.S., it was based on leverage & speculation. (And, I think, like the U.S., some fraudulent mortgage practices.)

Therefore, I wouldn't conclude that there's a reasonable parallel with this to be drawn.

(I'm not saying this is an argument for, or against. Just saying it's not the same story to be told, not the same mechanisms necessarily at play.)
 
jackargent
have you read that link?

it includes this "the UK exists to ensure opportunity and security for all by sharing our resources equitably".

Yeah, and the death star will sing you a lullaby & rock you to sleep

I think you 35% may be a little bit out. hopefully by about 20% ... but then I am an optimist
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Actually no because the link wasn't my point, the first paragraph was. I was saying all 3 parties are falling into the trap set by Salmond.
 

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