The GTP Unofficial 2020 US Elections Thread

[Blitz24]

According to CNN projections at this time, Biden will end up with 271 as long as he wins Maine outright. He would end up winning Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan and the aforementioned Maine. If he gets 3 of the 4 votes he also wins. If they split Maine equally, neither candidate is projected to reach 270.

 

[eran0004]

@eran0004 Thanks for doing that math. Imo that truly proves to me that PA is out of reach.

I would say Pennsylvania is right on the edge. It seems like most of the votes remaining to be counted are from the big city districts and in Philadelphia Biden has something like 72% of the votes right now. So not impossible, but quite unlikely.

 

[Joey D]

If he gets 3 of the 4 votes he also wins. If they split Maine equally, neither candidate is projected to reach 270.

If neither gets 270, it's going to be strange considering how the contingent election works. The House would choose the president while the Senate would choose the vice president, which would make it Joe Biden and Mike Pence.

 

[FuriousDemon]

Michigan seems to be over for trump. Mostly Wayne county left to count and that is Biden. Looks like Wisconsin is probably Biden as well.

Oakland county Democrats showed up big this year. Good, I feel a bit happier living here.

 

[polysmut]

If neither gets 270, it's going to be strange considering how the contingent election works. The House would choose the president while the Senate would choose the vice president, which would make it Joe Biden and Mike Pence.

I assume that would happen during a lame duck period of the current congress?

 

[Liquid]

The House would choose the president while the Senate would choose the vice president, which would make it Joe Biden and Mike Pence.

 

[Touring Mars]

If neither gets 270, it's going to be strange considering how the contingent election works. The House would choose the president while the Senate would choose the vice president, which would make it Joe Biden and Mike Pence.

Oh dear Christ.

The bookies will be mad if neither Biden/Harris or Trump/Pence won.

Who had a fiver on Biden/Pence??

Shame it isn't the other way around... Trump/Harris anyone?

 

[Joey D]

I assume that would happen during a lame duck period of the current congress?

I believe it would start on January 6th and need to be wrapped up by January 20th, so it should be the newly elected Congress.

 

[MatskiMonk]

Looks like Moscow voted Trump.

... Moscow, Maine... that is.

The bookies will be mad if neither Biden/Harris or Trump/Pence won.

Surely they'll have made a killing if that's the case.

 

[ROAD_DOGG33J]

If neither gets 270, it's going to be strange considering how the contingent election works. The House would choose the president while the Senate would choose the vice president, which would make it Joe Biden and Mike Pence.

2020 would deliver once again

 

[Keef]

Senate is not looking good for Democrats, so I wouldn’t worry about it, if someone was worried.

Oh I'm worried worried. With a Dem controlled senate, government as a whole will be utterly useless and nothing will get changed. Biden will be a lame duck for four years. We won't know until the Georgia special election whether or not they get a majority.

Edit: Gideon is gaining in Maine but idk. And Cal Cunningham might gain back in NC.

 

[Blitz24]

2020 would deliver once again

We should do a duel at dawn. 10 paces back and turn. I have a feeling both will miss.

 

[ROAD_DOGG33J]

If they're close, isn't there a good chance that we have faithless electors decide the election?

 

[Joey D]

What the hell @TB

GOP state legislature candidate in North Dakota who died of Covid wins election

Looks like you're going to have a zombie in your congress.

 

[Liquid]

It happened in Nevada in 2016 too.

 

[TB]

What the hell @TB

GOP state legislature candidate in North Dakota who died of Covid wins election

Looks like you're going to have a zombie in your congress.

I knew North Dakota was die hard Republican but taking it to the grave is a bit much.

 

[GBalao888]

If Biden can secure a victory for Nevada, Wisconsin and Michigan, and Trump wins all the rest (Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Alaska), then Biden will still win by two electoral votes.

Time for Biden to grab these three states like as if it were the five pieces of Exodia against Trump.

 

[Blitz24]

I knew North Dakota was die hard Republican but taking it to the grave is a bit much.

So you guys will have a Tombstone in session?

 

[Keef]

According to CNN projections at this time, Biden will end up with 271 as long as he wins Maine outright. He would end up winning Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan and the aforementioned Maine. If he gets 3 of the 4 votes he also wins. If they split Maine equally, neither candidate is projected to reach 270.

I think either they mispoke or you misheard. They don't simply "split" Maine - both the first and second districts have one vote each, but the statewide popular vote winner gets a further two votes. Models have shown Biden will likely take three of those four.

If that happens, and Biden wins Michigan, he gets 270 and it's over. As long as Biden keeps Michigan, he doesn't need PA, NC, or GA.

Edit: @Blitz24 I think I just said the exact same thing you said lol but CNN threw two very unlikely scenarios in there that confused me. It's unlikely/never forecast/unnecessary that Biden will win Maine's 2nd and it's not possible to "split" the state 2x2 because whoever has the statewide popular vote will get the state's 2 votes, but in order to have the statewide popular vote you at least will also have it in one of the two districts which makes for a minimum of 3 votes possible.

 

[FuriousDemon]

Interesting, NYT now showing AZ as 98% of the votes in.

 

[Blitz24]

I think either they mispoke or you misheard. They don't simply "split" Maine - both the first and second districts have one vote each, but the statewide popular vote winner gets a further two votes. Models have shown Biden will likely take three of those four.

If that happens, and Biden wins Michigan, he gets 270 and it's over. As long as Biden keeps Michigan, he doesn't need PA, NC, or GA.

I wasn't sure how Maine was split up so that's why I might have miscalculated.

 

[TB]

So you guys will have a Tombstone in session?

We haven't put our Halloween decorations away yet.

Interesting, NYT now showing AZ as 98% of the votes in.

And the AP has the exact same number of votes as NYT but has it percentage at 84.

 

[FuriousDemon]

We haven't put our Halloween decorations away yet.

And the AP has the exact same number of votes as NYT but has it percentage at 84.

Exactly, hence why I’m confused.

 

[Keef]

What the hell @TB

GOP state legislature candidate in North Dakota who died of Covid wins election

Looks like you're going to have a zombie in your congress.

I knew North Dakota was die hard Republican but taking it to the grave is a bit much.

Well at least it's only a state special election you have to worry about, not a national one.

Interesting, NYT now showing AZ as 98% of the votes in.

Weird they haven't called it. A 3.4% lead with 98% in isn't especially close.

 

[Danoff]

Whatcha y'all expect? Oh yeah, polls...

@Danoff was talking about, how I interpreted it, GA was gonna go Biden from some poll.

I got mocked about bumper stickers, when I was actually talking about signs.

And then I see a post like people are surprised GA went Red...

It's kinda funny to me. I tell y'all and y'all just brush me away and think I'm dumb...

Edit: And I've already expressed my views on the stupid polls.

I think I said GA was polled at being one of the closest races in the nation, and was leaning Biden. And that's how it stands right now. Your pickup truck poll is really going to have to thread the needle. If you pull it out, I'll be astounded at how you called one of the narrowest races in the country by eyeballing a few signs and bumperstickers.

=======================================


So much doom and gloom in this thread. If we stopped the count right now (which would be absurd, only a total clown would suggest that), Biden would win (as of 5 seconds ago, that might have already changed).

 

[TB]

If you pull it out, I'll be astounded

 

[FuriousDemon]

At this point, seems like trump pulling some legal crap is how he wins. What are the recount rules, which seems what trump wants to do in the close states?

 

[Blitz24]

At this point, seems like trump pulling some legal crap is how he wins. What are the recount rules, which seems what trump wants to do in the close states?

Pretty much he wants the ballots that weren't already counted to be thrown out. He was eyeing that all ballots counted as of an arbitrary time should be counted and thus would give him the win.

 

[Danoff]

Amazing the Biden still has a shot in NC. NYT was showing NC being out of reach statistically earlier (although always very close), but it has opened back up.

To summarize the current situation:
Biden has a chance in NC, leaning Trump
Biden has a better chance in GA, leaning Biden
Nevada is close
Wisconsin and Michigan are very close (possible recount), but the remaining ballots are expected to favor Biden.
PA is going to take a while
Arizona looks Biden

If we give Arizona to Biden, he needs 32 electoral votes out of the remainder. Meanwhile Trump needs 57. Currently, it looks like Trump's ability to win the EC is fairly... difficult. He could win NC, Wisconsin, and Michigan and still lose (and that wouldn't be a statistical anomaly at this point).

 

[Joey D]

Imagine being so stupid you don't understand how basic counting works: