The GTP Unofficial 2020 US Elections Thread

[FuriousDemon]

Imagine being so stupid you don't understand how basic counting works:

He just wants to rile up his base. I’m sure he understands it. Just lying SOB as usual.

 

[Joey D]

He just wants to rile up his base. I’m sure he understands it. Just lying SOB as usual.

I'm actually not sure he does understand it. I think he's so deranged that he can't comprehend how he didn't win every single state and get every single vote.

 

[TB]

Pretty much he wants the ballots that weren't already counted to be thrown out. He was eyeing that all ballots counted as of an arbitrary time should be counted and thus would give him the win.

Because he knew the Republicans would mostly vote in person, and therefore be counted, while the majority of Democrats voted via mail-in so theirs "don't count".

Imagine being so stupid you don't understand how basic counting works:

Surprise dumps. Like the mail-ins that get counted after the in person? That surprise?

Also, "surprise dump" is what happens a few hours after a visit to Chipotle.

 

[FuriousDemon]

AZ is back to 86% from 98%. NYT data was wrong.

 

[TB]

AZ is back to 86% from 98%. NYT data was wrong.

Mine is still showing 98.

 

[ROAD_DOGG33J]

How is the 238 EV calculated by the Associated Press?

Does that include all 4 of the Maine votes?

Nevada, Wisconsin and Michigan would give Biden 270, but I'm not sure how the allocation has been counted.

 

[PeterJB]

In an election as narrow as this, California alone basically guarantees the Democrat candidate the popular vote. Biden currently has a lead of 2.5 million votes Trump, and he has won California by almost 4 million votes.

I've rather crudely applied a proportional representation system to the EC, and it comes out with 271 for Trump and 277 for Biden, though I fear I've gone wrong somewhere as that ten more than the total number available.

 

[FuriousDemon]

Mine is still showing 98.

Gonna change soon. They made a comment on their blog, probably didn’t update the map yet.

 

[Brett]

I am going to try not going down a hole of Community clips now.

 

[ROAD_DOGG33J]

I'm actually not sure he does understand it. I think he's so deranged that he can't comprehend how he didn't win every single state and get every single vote.

I don't know, it seems in line with his strategy of creating doubt and saying the mail vote will be fraudulent. That was the strategy the whole time. He can claim victory early and then battle it out over the mail-in votes, which are primarily for Democrats.

 

[Blitz24]

I've rather crudely applied a proportional representation system to the EC, and it comes out with 271 for Trump and 277 for Biden, though I fear I've gone wrong somewhere as that ten more than the total number available.

Somewhere you carried a 1 to the wrong place. A candidate by minimum will win by 2 (270 to 268) and your number totals 548.

 

[Danoff]

Gonna change soon. They made a comment on their blog, probably didn’t update the map yet.

Yea some kind of error in the "percent reported" column. Arizona is still not done counting.

Nevada, Wisconsin and Michigan would give Biden 270, but I'm not sure how the allocation has been counted.

Wisconsin and Michigan are almost certainly going for a re-count if there is not some other clear victory signal. I'm trying to think of how we avoid a recount at this point.

If PA, AZ, and NV come out solidly biden, that would be 37 EVs, that doesn't do it.

I don't see anything credible that avoids a re-count.

 

[FuriousDemon]

I don't know, it seems in line with his strategy of creating doubt and saying the mail vote will be fraudulent. That was the strategy the whole time. He can claim victory early and then battle it out over the mail-in votes, which are skewed towards Democrats.

I don’t even understand how he can “battle it out” though. Votes are still votes, mail or not.

Michigan still has Wayne county with another 150k votes going Biden. I don’t know what’s the holdup there.

 

[MatskiMonk]

In an election as narrow as this, California alone basically guarantees the Democrat candidate the popular vote. Biden currently has a lead of 2.5 million votes Trump, and he has won California by almost 4 million votes.

I've rather crudely applied a proportional representation system to the EC, and it comes out with 271 for Trump and 277 for Biden, though I fear I've gone wrong somewhere as that ten more than the total number available.

274 to 264 in favour of Biden weighted by popular vote only, edit: as per last figures I saw anyway.

 

[ROAD_DOGG33J]

I don’t even understand how he can “battle it out” though. Votes are still votes, mail or not.

Just his typical way of doing business - in court. I think he will take any chance he can get of getting results dismissed.

 

[eran0004]

Updated my calculations by the latest figures. In Michigan Biden now needs 49% of the remaining votes while Trump needs 51%. In Arizona Biden needs 39% and Trump 60%.

The figures for the other states remain the same as in my previous post.

 

[PeterJB]

Somewhere you carried a 1 to the wrong place. A candidate by minimum will win by 2 (270 to 268) and your number totals 548.

I've recounted and took ten off of Biden. This still gives the presidency to Trump despite not having the popular vote, though that may be because I deliberately avoided giving half-and-half in very narrow states with even numbers of EC votes.

 

[Danoff]

Yea some kind of error in the "percent reported" column. Arizona is still not done counting.



Wisconsin and Michigan are almost certainly going for a re-count if there is not some other clear victory signal. I'm trying to think of how we avoid a recount at this point.

If PA, AZ, and NV come out solidly biden, that would be 37 EVs, that doesn't do it.

I don't see anything credible that avoids a re-count.

Maaayyyybeee, I just thought of a way.

Supposing PA, AZ, NV, and Michigan come out solid Biden. Michigan is currently super close, only 10k votes separating the two out of over 5 million. But Michigan still has 10% of the vote left to report, so that's another 500k votes, which are supposedly solidly biden. So if all of those states were definitive (which is somewhat credible), then biden would have enough to win without us needing a recount.

 

[Keef]

Nevada is close

NV has absentees to count, most from Clark County aka Vegas, and I think we can expect those to be heavily Biden.

He just wants to rile up his base. I’m sure he understands it. Just lying SOB as usual.

No, I think he's a genuine psychopath. Four years ago I thought he was a clever idiot. He's not a clever idiot. He's actually not stupid at all which is the scary part. He's smart enough to cheat successfully - you don't just stumble upon a billion dollars by being a normal person. Bill Gates might be the one genuinely genius/lucky exception who isn't obviously insane.

Maaayyyybeee, I just thought of a way.

Supposing PA, AZ, NV, and Michigan come out solid Biden. Michigan is currently super close, only 10k votes separating the two out of over 5 million. But Michigan still has 10% of the vote left to report, so that's another 500k votes, which are supposedly solidly biden. So if all of those states were definitive (which is somewhat credible), then biden would have enough to win without us needing a recount.

With the absentee blue shift of WI and MI this morning, I'm pretty confident both will be Biden. I'm confident in NV and AZ. At that point Biden has won, he's got his 270 and doesn't need PA, NC, or GA.

 

[FuriousDemon]

Right now I think PA is a bit unclear. WI seems to be Biden’s as even Scott Walker says that recount only changes numbers by less than 500 votes based on previous recounts.

 

[Joey D]

But Michigan still has 10% of the vote left to report, so that's another 500k votes, which are supposedly solidly biden.

It's mostly Wayne County and Wayne County is heavily Democrat since it contains Detroit and Dearborn.

 

[Danoff]

NV has absentees to count, most from Clark County aka Vegas, and I think we can expect those to be heavily Biden.

Yea I'm still expecting NV and AZ to go Biden. Which really makes the possibilities for Trump small.

But still, to avoid a recount we'd need a clear winner (and it has to be Biden) in PA and Michigan. If Biden takes GA, it'll recount. Looks like Wisconsin is solidly a recount, I think NC might be too.

Flipping the script, Trump could take GA without a recount. But Trump can't reasonably take AZ or probably NV without a recount. So Trump would have to get a solid win in PA, Michigan, and GA to make it to... no that still doesn't do it, he would need NC to be solid. I'm not sure that's credible.

I don't think there's a credible Trump wins scenario that doesn't involve a recount. I'm not really sure if there is one for Biden either, but possibly.

 

[Blitz24]

Yea I'm still expecting NV and AZ to go Biden. Which really makes the possibilities for Trump small.

But still, to avoid a recount we'd need a clear winner (and it has to be Biden) in PA and Michigan. If Biden takes GA, it'll recount. Looks like Wisconsin is solidly a recount, I think NC might be too.

Flipping the script, Trump could take GA without a recount. But Trump can't reasonably take AZ or probably NV without a recount. So Trump would have to get a solid win in PA, Michigan, and GA to make it to... no that still doesn't do it.

I don't think there's a credible Trump wins scenario that doesn't involve a recount. I'm not really sure if there is one for Biden either, but possibly.

What is the margin of victory required PA, GA, NV, WI or MI to avoid a recount?

 

[FuriousDemon]

Can someone tell me what are the requirements for a recount or is it “if trump says he wants it”?

 

[Danoff]

What is the margin of victory required PA, GA, NV, WI or MI to avoid a recount?

It's 1% in WI. 0.5% in GA. No margin required, just a request in NV. 0.5% in PA. It looks like just an accusation of Fraud in MI.

https://ballotpedia.org/Election_recount_laws_and_procedures_in_the_50_states,_2020#Michigan

Yikes, that's worse than expected. So that makes the no-recount scenario fairly non-credible. Because it hinged on MI being solid. But Trump can basically accuse fraud in MI and get a recount. It would have to be so solid that Trump doesn't bother and... what are the chances of that?

 

[Biggles]

What I don't understand, given the rhetoric going into this election, why wouldn't the constituencies count the votes in the order they were received ... which is to say mail in & advance ballots FIRST & then election day ballots? This would be more likely to prevent one of the candidates (Trump) claiming an early, unverified victory.

 

[TexRex]

If neither gets 270, it's going to be strange considering how the contingent election works. The House would choose the president while the Senate would choose the vice president, which would make it Joe Biden and Mike Pence.

It's like a bad '80s roommate sitcom. I can picture the posters now, them standing back-to-back, Pence with a stern expression in a white button shirt and grey knit sweatervest that his wife, Mother, made for him, and Joe in a fuchsia tee with black and white check suspenders, making a goofy face like he's in the process of filling out a Mad Lib on his own using "fart" or some derivation of the word in every blank space.

 

[Blitz24]

It's 1% in WI. 0.5% in GA. No margin required, just a request in NV. 0.5% in PA. It looks like just an accusation of Fraud in WI.

https://ballotpedia.org/Election_recount_laws_and_procedures_in_the_50_states,_2020#Michigan

Yikes, that's worse than expected.

There will be a recount in Wisconsin and Nevada unless Trump wins. He will demand it and probably demand it again (in Wisconsin's case, he will claim fraud).

What I don't understand, given the rhetoric going into this election, why wouldn't the constituencies count the votes in the order they were received ... which is to say mail in & advance ballots FIRST & then election day ballots? This would be more likely to prevent one of the candidates (Trump) claiming an early, unverified victory.

Because those states weren't allowed to count until Election Day.

 

[Rossell2]

What I don't understand, given the rhetoric going into this election, why wouldn't the constituencies count the votes in the order they were received ... which is to say mail in & advance ballots FIRST & then election day ballots? This would be more likely to prevent one of the candidates (Trump) claiming an early, unverified victory.

Because I don't think people are that smart.

 

[Danoff]

There will be a recount in Wisconsin and Nevada unless Trump wins. He will demand it and probably demand it again (in Wisconsin's case, he will claim fraud).

If Trump somehow wins, I think there will definitely be a recount in Wisconsin and Nevada (and probably others).