The GTP Unofficial 2020 US Elections Thread
- Thread starter Sanji Himura
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Danoff
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So, in NC that's probably not going to happen, but most outstanding votes for democrat. In GA that actually might happen because most outstanding votes are democrat. In PA the vast majority of what remains is democrat. Wisconsin is apparently already done. Michigan is pretty solidly in Biden's camp. Arizona I think most of the outstanding votes are Trump, but Arizona has been tricky to get info on. Not sure about Nevada.
Biden wins the initial results if he takes 2 out of AZ+NV+GA or takes NC or takes PA. Trump's most clear path to victory would be PA+NC+GA+(NV or AZ) (based on initial results).
Also, Nevada (being the easier of the two of NV and AZ for Trump) won't update results again until noon eastern tomorrow.
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It's a good thing so many states are legalizing marijuana...this country needs to chill the **** out.
ROAD_DOGG33J
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Nevada was blue in 2016. I would guess the same is likely for 2020.
And Oregon decriminalized cocaine and heroin partially.
And Oregon decriminalized cocaine and heroin partially.
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Danoff
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Apparently absentee ballots for las vegas are being counted now. Absentee had been counted for 1 county (heavily red) already, so I think the expectation in NV is more of the same but slightly more democrat than republican. That would hand NV to Biden (with a recount of course).
Arizona would seemingly cinch it for Biden.
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A letter to our North American friends, from the OAS:
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Dear USA,
We, the Organization of American States, follow with concern the problems with your elections. The reported cases of de-registrations, voter suppression, attempts to sabotage the US Postal Services, and the judicialization of mail-in and absentee ballots could never be happening in the view of our Organization. All of this is clearly convenient to the Red Mirage Strategy planned by Il Douche to overthrown your rules and fraud the election of Joe Biden, even with Mr. Biden having more than 2.6 million votes over The Apprentice guy at the moment a̶n̶d̶ ̶e̶v̶e̶n̶ ̶c̶o̶n̶s̶i̶d̶e̶r̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶t̶h̶a̶t̶ ̶h̶i̶s̶ ̶l̶i̶f̶e̶l̶e̶s̶s̶,̶ ̶b̶u̶r̶e̶a̶u̶c̶r̶a̶t̶i̶c̶ ̶a̶n̶d̶ ̶c̶o̶r̶p̶o̶r̶a̶t̶e̶ ̶c̶a̶m̶p̶a̶i̶g̶n̶ ̶w̶i̶l̶l̶ ̶a̶g̶a̶i̶n̶ ̶f̶a̶i̶l̶ ̶t̶o̶ ̶b̶r̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶v̶o̶t̶e̶s̶ ̶l̶i̶k̶e̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶y̶ ̶d̶i̶d̶ ̶w̶i̶t̶h̶ ̶H̶i̶l̶l̶a̶r̶y̶, ̶e̶v̶e̶n̶ ̶d̶u̶r̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶a̶ ̶c̶a̶t̶a̶s̶t̶r̶o̶p̶h̶i̶c̶ ̶m̶i̶s̶m̶a̶n̶a̶g̶e̶m̶e̶n̶t̶ ̶o̶f̶ ̶a̶ ̶d̶e̶a̶d̶l̶y̶ ̶p̶a̶n̶d̶e̶m̶i̶c̶ ̶f̶r̶o̶m̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶O̶r̶a̶n̶g̶e̶ ̶G̶u̶y̶. We have always aligned with democratic principles and rightfully elected leaders, and never supported illiberal rulers aligned with Washington south of the Tropic of Cancer, so now it wouldn't be the case for it up north.
Therefore, to assist the transition government after the fraudulent attempt to de-legitimize the election results in Nevada, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia i̶f̶ ̶t̶h̶o̶s̶e̶ ̶s̶t̶a̶t̶e̶s̶ ̶e̶n̶d̶e̶d̶ ̶u̶p̶ ̶B̶l̶u̶e̶ we declare our full support for our self-declared President, Ms. Nancy Pelosi.
She will lead your country into returning to Democracy with the support of the Military Junta led by General Mark Milley, and we will work with them towards a path for peace and prosperity, like we always pretend in our letters, like in Bolivia and Venezuela.
And to end this letter, our vice secretary, with a thick accent, declares: "We are your amigos, American People".
Sincerely,
Luis Almagro
Secretary General of the Organization of American States
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
[END OF IRONY]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Dear USA,
We, the Organization of American States, follow with concern the problems with your elections. The reported cases of de-registrations, voter suppression, attempts to sabotage the US Postal Services, and the judicialization of mail-in and absentee ballots could never be happening in the view of our Organization. All of this is clearly convenient to the Red Mirage Strategy planned by Il Douche to overthrown your rules and fraud the election of Joe Biden, even with Mr. Biden having more than 2.6 million votes over The Apprentice guy at the moment a̶n̶d̶ ̶e̶v̶e̶n̶ ̶c̶o̶n̶s̶i̶d̶e̶r̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶t̶h̶a̶t̶ ̶h̶i̶s̶ ̶l̶i̶f̶e̶l̶e̶s̶s̶,̶ ̶b̶u̶r̶e̶a̶u̶c̶r̶a̶t̶i̶c̶ ̶a̶n̶d̶ ̶c̶o̶r̶p̶o̶r̶a̶t̶e̶ ̶c̶a̶m̶p̶a̶i̶g̶n̶ ̶w̶i̶l̶l̶ ̶a̶g̶a̶i̶n̶ ̶f̶a̶i̶l̶ ̶t̶o̶ ̶b̶r̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶v̶o̶t̶e̶s̶ ̶l̶i̶k̶e̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶y̶ ̶d̶i̶d̶ ̶w̶i̶t̶h̶ ̶H̶i̶l̶l̶a̶r̶y̶, ̶e̶v̶e̶n̶ ̶d̶u̶r̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶a̶ ̶c̶a̶t̶a̶s̶t̶r̶o̶p̶h̶i̶c̶ ̶m̶i̶s̶m̶a̶n̶a̶g̶e̶m̶e̶n̶t̶ ̶o̶f̶ ̶a̶ ̶d̶e̶a̶d̶l̶y̶ ̶p̶a̶n̶d̶e̶m̶i̶c̶ ̶f̶r̶o̶m̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶O̶r̶a̶n̶g̶e̶ ̶G̶u̶y̶. We have always aligned with democratic principles and rightfully elected leaders, and never supported illiberal rulers aligned with Washington south of the Tropic of Cancer, so now it wouldn't be the case for it up north.
Therefore, to assist the transition government after the fraudulent attempt to de-legitimize the election results in Nevada, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia i̶f̶ ̶t̶h̶o̶s̶e̶ ̶s̶t̶a̶t̶e̶s̶ ̶e̶n̶d̶e̶d̶ ̶u̶p̶ ̶B̶l̶u̶e̶ we declare our full support for our self-declared President, Ms. Nancy Pelosi.
She will lead your country into returning to Democracy with the support of the Military Junta led by General Mark Milley, and we will work with them towards a path for peace and prosperity, like we always pretend in our letters, like in Bolivia and Venezuela.
And to end this letter, our vice secretary, with a thick accent, declares: "We are your amigos, American People".
Sincerely,
Luis Almagro
Secretary General of the Organization of American States
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
[END OF IRONY]
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Keef
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I don't know if any of y'all have been following the House race but it's a massacre. Republicans have flipped five seats already and are expected to flip several more...in fact they might get their majority back. In one expected-blue district in PA, the 17th which is west of Pittsburgh, the Republican is up 12%. Lordy. There are also several other "tossup" districts which are not tossups at all, good god, several of them have Republicans up around 15%. These rural people are like banshees, holy hell.
In the Senate, Gary Peters is just baaaarrreely holding onto his blue MI seat but seems to be pulling ahead very slightly, we're talking tens of votes. That will obviously be effected by the inevitable recount. Susan Collins is still holding her seat in Maine and Gideon's opportunity to catch up is closing. I wouldn't put money on it flipping. If Peters holds his seat, the best we're looking at is 50/50 which isn't good enough and will result in Biden being a lame duck for at least his first two years in office. It's still plausible that Warnock could flip the GA runoff seat blue resulting in 51/49 but that runoff election isn't until December 1.
In the Senate, Gary Peters is just baaaarrreely holding onto his blue MI seat but seems to be pulling ahead very slightly, we're talking tens of votes. That will obviously be effected by the inevitable recount. Susan Collins is still holding her seat in Maine and Gideon's opportunity to catch up is closing. I wouldn't put money on it flipping. If Peters holds his seat, the best we're looking at is 50/50 which isn't good enough and will result in Biden being a lame duck for at least his first two years in office. It's still plausible that Warnock could flip the GA runoff seat blue resulting in 51/49 but that runoff election isn't until December 1.
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Keef
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Because states have various House districts, each with a Representative sitting in DC. These districts are much more localized and are generally of similar populations. Whereas a state like Ohio might vote red for president and Michigan might vote blue for president, each state has various Representatives in Congress, some of whom are red or blue depending on what districts they represent. But states like New York and California have a huge number of representatives in Congress, most of whom are blue. Also, these seats only last two years so the proportion changes pretty often and the seats are volatile.
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Districts are also "creatively" drawn to favor one party or another in a way that might not align with the statewide aggregate vote - which is what decides the Presidential vote.
In the Presidential race in the hypothetical above, blue wins in every scenario, 60 to 40. Congress could go any of the other ways.
(Edit: This discounts the possibility of people not voting straight-ticket. With Trump, it could be that he is unpopular enough to lose votes from people who would vote straight Republican otherwise)
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- FuriousDemon
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I took a screenshot of the numbers from Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin just over an hour ago. Not surprisingly, not much change overall. There were a few bumps, though.
Georgia - 1% more reported, Biden up .2%, Trump down .2%
Michigan - No change in reporting, Biden up .2%, Trump up .1%
Nevada - No change
North Carolina - No change
Pennsylvania - No change in reporting, Biden up 1.6%, Trump down 1.5%
Wisconsin - No change
Georgia - 1% more reported, Biden up .2%, Trump down .2%
Michigan - No change in reporting, Biden up .2%, Trump up .1%
Nevada - No change
North Carolina - No change
Pennsylvania - No change in reporting, Biden up 1.6%, Trump down 1.5%
Wisconsin - No change
Keef
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I know all about it but I appreciate the info. Ohio is a terribly gerrymandered state.Districts are also "creatively" drawn to favor one party or another in a way that might not align with the statewide aggregate vote - which is what decides the Presidential vote.
In the Presidential race in the hypothetical above, blue wins in every scenario, 60 to 40. Congress could go any of the other ways.
I am disgusted with the nation's pollsters this time around. I understand being off, I understand being within the "margin of error" but guess what...if you're consistently wrong within the margin of error, that's because it wasn't the margin of error, it was the norm.. Like when you call the utility company and they're like "we're experiencing a higher than normal call volume" NO! If you're always experiencing a higher than normal call volume, it's not higher than normal, it IS normal! This isn't hard, people. Y'all went to college for statistics but you shoulda spent more time studying hypernationalist populism because once you drive out past the subdivisions it's basically 1930 Germany out here it's ridiculous. Maybe don't get your degree and move to NYC where you still can't see a farm field after driving for two hours. Johnny Reb out there on his tractor is locked and loaded Nate Silver, g'on and factor that into your model.
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- 11,906
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- eran0004
So this is where I see it standing right now:
Yeah, it seems the same to me. With the exception of Maine because I haven't really figured out how that one works. On CNN:s website it shows up as 3 votes to Biden and 0 to Trump, I guess that means that they can split the vote and that the fourth vote is still undecided? If that's the case, and the vote goes to Trump then they'd have 269 each?
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I like this gif for demonstrating it...
Even if borders aren't deliberately gerrymandered, it shows how much geographical grouping can change things.
Keef
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Maine has two electoral districts (presumably shaped the same as their two congressional districts), each with one vote. It also has two further electoral votes which are awarded to the statewide popular vote winner.
Biden is going to win Maine's 1st district (Portland and Augusta coastal area) and win the statewide popular vote which gives him three electoral votes. We don't yet know who will win the 2nd district because Biden honestly isn't that far behind and only about 60% of all votes have been reported in those regions.
ROAD_DOGG33J
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I like this gif for demonstrating it...
Even if borders aren't deliberately gerrymandered, it shows how much geographical grouping can change things.
Right, and there isn't really such a thing as a perfectly drawn district. It's more a matter of how intentionally partisan they are drawn.
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