The GTP Unofficial 2020 US Elections Thread

[Blitz24]

If Trump somehow wins, I think there will definitely be a recount in Wisconsin and Nevada (and probably others).

And I was hoping we'd know by this weekend who won. More likely Veteran's Day (next Wednesday for those not in the United States).

 

[Danoff]

And I was hoping we'd know by this weekend who won. More likely Veteran's Day (next Wednesday for those not in the United States).

Yup, and weirdly, my guess is it's going to be multiple states recounting. Possibly quite a few.

 

[Tornado]

 

[TB]

It's like a bad '80s roommate sitcom. I can picture the posters now, them standing back-to-back, Pence with a stern expression in a white button shirt and grey knit sweatervest that his wife, Mother, made for him, and Joe in a fuchsia tee with black and white check suspenders, making a goofy face like he's in the process of filling out a Mad Lib on his own using "fart" or some derivation of the word in every blank space.

Close enough.

 

[eran0004]

Biden extends the lead in Michigan. He now needs 46% of the remaining votes there while Trump needs 53%.

 

[Keef]

Yea I'm still expecting NV and AZ to go Biden. Which really makes the possibilities for Trump small.

But still, to avoid a recount we'd need a clear winner (and it has to be Biden) in PA and Michigan. If Biden takes GA, it'll recount. Looks like Wisconsin is solidly a recount, I think NC might be too.

Flipping the script, Trump could take GA without a recount. But Trump can't reasonably take AZ or probably NV without a recount. So Trump would have to get a solid win in PA, Michigan, and GA to make it to... no that still doesn't do it, he would need NC to be solid. I'm not sure that's credible.

I don't think there's a credible Trump wins scenario that doesn't involve a recount. I'm not really sure if there is one for Biden either, but possibly.

So apparently state recount rules are vastly different and complicated as hell. Of course.

The most reasonable option for a GA recount is that a candidate can request it if the margin is .5% or less.

AZ recounts by county and it is requested by the county superior court. So far the tightest margins in AZ are about 4% so I don't think any reasonable judge would see that as recount-worthy.

Candidates or "registered voters of political subdivisions" can request in NV, but again the margins aren't very close.

A PA recount won't be triggered until three electors request it, and electors don't even get final results until when, December 8? That would be a drawn-out nightmare.

In MI the president could simply claim fraud. Not sure who would decide if that's legit or not.

The margin to request a recount in NC is .5% or 10,000 votes, whichever is smaller.

@Blitz24

 

[Danoff]

PA absentee ballots are coming in at nearly 80% for Biden. With 20% of the vote remaining, that would put Biden winning that state convincingly.

 

[Keef]

Updated my calculations by the latest figures. In Michigan Biden now needs 49% of the remaining votes while Trump needs 51%. In Arizona Biden needs 39% and Trump 60%.

The figures for the other states remain the same as in my previous post.

You're doing God's work here. Not even CNN or the others are talking about what percentage of the incoming vote is actually needed. This is the data that really lets us know who will win what.

Woah. I read about the non-compliance but very interested in what the Judge has to say. Judges aren't officers or prosecutors so what can he even do about it?

 

[huskeR32]

What I don't understand, given the rhetoric going into this election, why wouldn't the constituencies count the votes in the order they were received ... which is to say mail in & advance ballots FIRST & then election day ballots? This would be more likely to prevent one of the candidates (Trump) claiming an early, unverified victory.

Each state sets its own law for when absentee/mail-in ballots can be counted. For one example, Pennsylvania law saws that counting of ballots, both mail-in and in-person, starts when the polls close (8pm on Election Day). This year, citing extraordinary circumstances, the Republican-controlled state legislature there passed a measure allowing counties some flexibility, meaning they didn't have to start counting until the next day. In response, many counties then announced that they would have enough on their hands just counting the in-person vote, and wouldn't even attempt to count the mail-in vote until the next day. One might note that this allowed the president to go on national television and say that all counting should be stopped before it even began in many counties of one of the most consequential states in the election. One might also note that in-person vote trends Republican while mail-in trends Democrat. Then again, one might just be a Democrat pussy with Trump Derangement Syndrome.

 

[FuriousDemon]

Hm... PA is looking that good for Biden? I’m surprised but hope this is true.

Even GA seems possible right now based on what’s left.

Looks like WI numbers are final - extra 20000 for Biden. Let’s see about that recount.

 

[Keef]

Cant we talk about how Alaska isn't counting absentee ballots for an entire week? What the hell kind of law is that?

 

[TexRex]

Close enough.

That's what I was thinking of; I can picture Joe as Balky. Now the theme song is stuck in my head.

Edit:

PA absentee ballots are coming in at nearly 80% for Biden. With 20% of the vote remaining, that would put Biden winning that state convincingly.

inb4 "They're all fraudulent."

 

[Joey D]

Cant we talk about how Alaska isn't counting absentee ballots for an entire week? What the hell kind of law is that?

The dog sleds and/or bush planes need to bring the ballots from those remote villages (I'm being serious). Some of those places get mail like once a month.

 

[TB]

That's what I was thinking of; I can picture Joe as Balky. Now the theme song is stuck in my head.

Know what helps with that? Doing the dance of joy!

 

[Imari]

If Trump somehow wins, I think there will definitely be a recount in Wisconsin and Nevada (and probably others).

At this point, I feel like either candidate is going to challenge for a recount in as many states as they possibly can. Any state where they lost by a small enough margin to justify a recount will get it, because why wouldn't you? If you've already lost then you can't possibly make it worse, and even if you don't win off the recount you potentially throw enough doubt into the process to mess something up in your favour.

It's looking basically impossible that it's clear cut enough at this point that recounts couldn't overturn the result, which means that this is probably going to get dragged out through the courts for the next month. Woo.

 

[Danoff]

Looks like WI numbers are final - extra 20000 for Biden. Let’s see about that recount.

I'm not seeing that. Where are you seeing that?

 

[PeterJB]

Since most of Michigan's remaining votes are coming from Detroit it looks like Biden will have it.

 

[FuriousDemon]

I'm not seeing that. Where are you seeing that?

Here:

 

[TexRex]

The dog sleds and/or bush planes need to bring the ballots from those remote villages (I'm being serious). Some of those places get mail like once a month.

I'd love for Trump to contest Alaska's results before they come in on the basis that it's taking so long, but someone will tap on his shoulder and inform him that he's favored there before he gets the chance to say something stupid.

 

[Danoff]

Here:

That's a recount.

 

[TB]

Shocker.

 

[Biggles]

Each state sets its own law for when absentee/mail-in ballots can be counted. For one example, Pennsylvania law saws that counting of ballots, both mail-in and in-person, starts when the polls close (8pm on Election Day). This year, citing extraordinary circumstances, the Republican-controlled state legislature there passed a measure allowing counties some flexibility, meaning they didn't have to start counting until the next day. In response, many counties then announced that they would have enough on their hands just counting the in-person vote, and wouldn't even attempt to count the mail-in vote until the next day. One might note that this allowed the president to go on national television and say that all counting should be stopped before it even began in many counties of one of the most consequential states in the election. One might also note that in-person vote trends Republican while mail-in trends Democrat. Then again, one might just be a Democrat pussy with Trump Derangement Syndrome.

I get it. Bottom line, the electoral process in many states is deeply partisan. In 40 years of observing elections in Canada I have never heard any talk about fraudulent or uncounted votes.

 

[FuriousDemon]

That's a recount.

Hence why I said - let’s see about that recount. The only way trump wins is if he can somehow throw out Biden’s ballots, which legally he shouldn’t be able to, but at this point I’m not going to bet on anything.

 

[Danoff]

Hence why I said - let’s see about that recount. The only way trump wins is if he can somehow throw out Biden’s ballots, which legally he shouldn’t be able to, but at this point I’m not going to bet on anything.

So at the moment, we have Wisconsin definitely recounting, and I'm thinking Michigan and Nevada too since no margin is required there, just a request. That's my minimum re-count scenario at this point.

The Wisconsin margin is so thin that it could change after a recount (or get bigger, who knows).

Edit:

Ok so Biden could potentially be a clear winner in PA and AZ, that's not enough. If he took GA, he could avoid a recount. But he'd have to take Georgia by enough and that seems very unlikely.

 

[FuriousDemon]

So at the moment, we have Wisconsin definitely recounting, and I'm thinking Michigan and Nevada too since no margin is required there, just a request. That's my minimum re-count scenario at this point.

The Wisconsin margin is so thin that it could change after a recount (or get bigger, who knows).

By a very thin amount, even republican governor thinks so:

 

[Blitz24]

By a very thin amount, even republican governor thinks so:

If they don't like the law for recounts they can always change it.... (they wont, but still).

 

[Keef]

bush planes

I should know this

 

[Danoff]

According to the NYTimes needle, based on outstanding ballots, NC goes to trump with 3:1 probability from here. GA is essentially even chance. Which means.... recount?

 

[GBalao888]

A little birdie told me that Biden has won Wisconsin. The plot thickens...
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/apr/13/us-elections-2020-joe-biden-wisconsin

 

[Liquid]

Not sure if serious or...