The GTP Unofficial 2020 US Elections Thread

GTPlanet Exit Poll - Which Presidential Ticket Did You Vote For?

  • Trump/Pence

    Votes: 16 27.1%

  • Biden/Harris

    Votes: 20 33.9%

  • Jorgensen/Cohen

    Votes: 7 11.9%

  • Hawkins/Walker

    Votes: 1 1.7%

  • La Riva/Freeman

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • De La Fuente/Richardson

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Blankenship/Mohr

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Carroll/Patel

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Simmons/Roze

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Charles/Wallace

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Other

    Votes: 15 25.4%
  • Total voters
    59
  • Poll closed .
p78
Ok, i can get that, but don't you usually choose the lesser of two bad choices?

And is Biden that weak? I would have guessed that all of Trumps shortcomings would make Biden a better candidate?
Click to expand...
For modern day republicans, a democrat is worse than the devil himself.
 
Assembling all of the... uhhh... "confirmed" results on 270toWin, and with its current predictions for the remaining states, I get this:

upload_2020-11-4_11-22-50.png


Edit: As per responses, switching AZ to Biden, and PA to unclear (or Trump), you get this:

upload_2020-11-4_12-5-7.png


The sad thing here is that the Democratic Party will take that as a win, when their choice is only able to achieve that margin over a man who has demonstrated his unsuitability for the role on a consistent basis for the last four years. I can only imagine that the Republican Party will be happy that their self-induced nightmare is finally over courtesy of voters, and can send in someone sane to destroy Biden (or Harris) in 2024 with DNC resting on its laurels...
 
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Famine
Assembling all of the... uhhh... "confirmed" results on 270toWin, and with its current predictions for the remaining states, I get this:

View attachment 969433

The sad thing here is that the Democratic Party will take that as a win, when their choice is only able to achieve that margin over a man who has demonstrated his unsuitability for the role on a consistent basis for the last four years. I can only imagine that the Republican Party will be happy that their self-induced nightmare is finally over courtesy of voters, and can send in someone sane to destroy Biden (or Harris) in 2024 with DNC resting on its laurels...
Click to expand...
That’s a weird map. AZ has been confirmed for Biden, MI is looking very close either way, PA is looking more red than blue.

But yeah, things are not looking good for Democrats. I just want the orange man gone, but afraid that his scare tactics and racism will be the way republicans will operate in the future since they can see it works. I mean, it’s not totally different from how it worked before, but it was a bit more covert. Now it’s just full blown 100% unapologetic hardline ****.
 
Famine
Assembling all of the... uhhh... "confirmed" results on 270toWin, and with its current predictions for the remaining states, I get this:
Click to expand...

PA "leaning" towards Biden? How outdated is that map?
Currently it sits at 55.7% Trump and 43.1% Biden with already >75% votes having been counted.
 
Bealdor
PA "leaning" towards Biden? How outdated is that map?
Currently it sits at 55.7% Trump and 43.1% Biden with already >75% votes having been counted.
Click to expand...
The deal with PA is that most of what’s left is mail in ballots and those are 60-75% in favor of Biden, so it will shift his way a lot as we get closer to 100%. Not sure it will be enough, but will be much different than it is now.
 
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It seems the turnout will be the best in over a century. So that aspect of democracy is satisfying and healthy.

Inevitable delays in counting all the ballots may delay media calling the winner for several days.

Certified official counts to be considered by the Electoral College are not required by law until the 8th of December.

I expect the next 30+ days to be muddied by legal challenges mounted by both sides.
 
How are those numbers calculated anyway?
I mean, looking at the NY Times page Trump is leading Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia. Winning those will put him at 280, isn't that correct? So to me Trump looks like a clear favorite actually.

Or am I missing something? Pardon my ignorance regarding US election stuff. It's a bit confusing. :)
 
Whitestar
How are those numbers calculated anyway?
I mean, looking at the NY Times page Trump is leading Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia. Winning those will put him at 280, isn't that correct? So to me Trump looks like a clear favorite actually.

Or am I missing something? Pardon my ignorance regarding US election stuff. It's a bit confusing. :)
Click to expand...
This year it's a bit special because lots of people voted by mail and most states count those ballots after election day ballots are processed. Most republicans voted on election day, because trump told them so. Most democrats voted by mail cause of Covid.
 
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FuriousDemon
This year it's a bit special because lots of people voted by mail and most states count those ballots after election day ballots are processed. Most republicans voted on election day, because trump told them so. Most democrats voted by mail cause of Covid.
Click to expand...
Ah, I see! Thanks for clearing that up. :)
 
FuriousDemon
Most states are not anywhere near 100% of the vote, so it’s still not confirmed officially but with 5% lead and most ballots being mail in, it’s a solid “confirmed “.
Click to expand...

I agree. Traditionally in US two-party elections, a 5% margin of victory is characterized as a "landslide".
 
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Looking at Michigan numbers, I'm glad my wife managed to get in right before the doors closed...I was telling her that she can skip it as she's not feeling 100%, but she decided last minute to go anyway.

Looking at the blue counties in MI so far - Trump vote remains similar to 2016 with a small uptick, but Democrats increased quite a bit. Will that be enough?

Wisconsin - Biden's lead increased to 20k (92% counted) from 10k (91% counted)
 
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It's unbelievable how Trump can look at partial results and claim a 'major fraud' is being perpetrated as the numbers change.

It's like arguing that you should win the Super Bowl because you are leading at the end of the third quarter. You don't need to be an Atlanta Falcons fan to know how well that argument stands up...
 
Touring Mars
It's unbelievable how Trump can look at partial results and claim a 'major fraud' is being perpetrated as the numbers change.

It's like arguing that you should win the Super Bowl because you are leading at the end of the third quarter. You don't need to be an Atlanta Falcons fan to know how well that argument stands up...
Click to expand...

I think it's insane how he can claim major fraud and say that the opponents are cheating and lying, with everyone knowing who is the biggest liar, and it's like, ok
 
Touring Mars
It's unbelievable how Trump can look at partial results and claim a 'major fraud' is being perpetrated as the numbers change.

It's like arguing that you should win the Super Bowl because you are leading at the end of the third quarter. You don't need to be an Atlanta Falcons fan to know how well that argument stands up...
Click to expand...
I'm surprised he hasn't used stronger words to be honest. This is pretty tame by his standards. Also, unrelated but he looks to have dipped his face in an extra serving of oranges.
 
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Third party voting is down this year from what I can tell. I was afraid we'll have a repeat of 2016, but Biden's a bit more likeable and looks like a lot of independents made up their mind one way or another.
 
NPR is reporting Michigan may be able to call the winner by 9pm this evening. Counting absentee ballots is the main delay.
 
Here's what Trump and Biden currently need* to win the battleground states, assuming that the proportion of votes who weren't cast on either of them remains constant:

Nevada
Biden needs 48% of the remaining votes (55% to win more than half the votes)
Trump needs 51% of the remaining votes (58% to win more than half the votes)

Arizona
Biden needs 38% (42%)
Trump needs 61% (65%)

Wisconsin
Biden needs 40% (70%)
Trump needs 59% (89%)

Michigan
Biden needs 51% (57%)
Trump needs 48% (54%)

Pennsylvania
Biden needs 67% (70%)
Trump needs 33% (35%)

North Carolina
Biden needs 64% (77%)
Trump needs 36% (49%)

Georgia
Biden needs 63% (70%)
Trump needs 37% (45%)

(*Assuming that my calculations are correct. The formula used is x = ((a+b)/2-a*c)/(1-c) where a is the current percentage of votes for the candidate, b is the current percentage of votes for the other candidate and c is the percentage of votes that have been counted so far. Percentages are expressed as 1% = 0.01. The result is rounded up to the nearest percent.)

 
Anyone saying Trump is a definite favourite in PA and GA are neglecting how democrat the mail ins will be, PA especially. Georgia is likely republican but still very close, PA too close and too early to call.
 
FuriousDemon
Looking at Michigan numbers, I'm glad my wife managed to get in right before the doors closed...I was telling her that she can skip it as she's not feeling 100%, but she decided last minute to go anyway. Regardless, I’m glad you got your votes in because clearly they matter big time today.

Looking at the blue counties in MI so far - Trump vote remains similar to 2016 with a small uptick, but Democrats increased quite a bit. Will that be enough?

Wisconsin - Biden's lead increased to 20k (92% counted) from 10k (91% counted)
Click to expand...
Not nitpicking your life decisions but consider this: How many other people ended up skipping the election because they didn’t feel good on Tuesday, when they could’ve requested an absentee ballot weeks prior to negate anything weird happening on Tuesday?

I may be spoiled though because Ohio has unlimited absentee voting starting Oct 6. I got my vote in 3.5 weeks ago.

@eran0004 Thanks for doing that math. Imo that truly proves to me that PA is out of reach.


Touring Mars
It's unbelievable how Trump can look at partial results and claim a 'major fraud' is being perpetrated as the numbers change.

It's like arguing that you should win the Super Bowl because you are leading at the end of the third quarter. You don't need to be an Atlanta Falcons fan to know how well that argument stands up...
Click to expand...
Is that people felt like in Belarus, Turkey, Venezuela, Iraq, Germany, et al?
 
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Keef
Not nitpicking your life decisions but consider this: How many other people ended up skipping the election because they didn’t feel good on Tuesday, when they could’ve requested an absentee ballot weeks prior to negate anything weird happening on Tuesday?

I may be spoiled though because Ohio has unlimited absentee voting starting Oct 6. I got my vote in 3.5 weeks ago.
Click to expand...
She had to register last minute because of some government ****up and with COVID had to send a bunch of documents back and forth, so absentee ballot was unfortunately out of the question. I didn’t have that problem and sent mine weeks ago.
 
TB
As was already mentioned by @huskeR32, it was purely an observation.

Much like my observation before that that


None of this means anything until all the votes are counted.
Click to expand...
Or the candidate falls down because someone leaned too much on him.
 
FuriousDemon
She had to register last minute because of some government ****up and with COVID had to send a bunch of documents back and forth, so absentee ballot was unfortunately out of the question. I didn’t have that problem and sent mine weeks ago.
Click to expand...
Nice, so they basically forced you into a tough decision out of sheer incompetence. :rolleyes: And hear I am voting for a Democrat trifecta lol.
 
Keef
Nice, so they basically forced you into a tough decision out of sheer incompetence. :rolleyes: And hear I am voting for a Democrat trifecta lol.
Click to expand...
Senate is not looking good for Democrats, so I wouldn’t worry about it, if someone was worried.
 

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