The GTP Unofficial 2020 US Elections Thread

GTPlanet Exit Poll - Which Presidential Ticket Did You Vote For?

  • Trump/Pence

    Votes: 16 27.1%
  • Biden/Harris

    Votes: 20 33.9%
  • Jorgensen/Cohen

    Votes: 7 11.9%
  • Hawkins/Walker

    Votes: 1 1.7%
  • La Riva/Freeman

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • De La Fuente/Richardson

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Blankenship/Mohr

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Carroll/Patel

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Simmons/Roze

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Charles/Wallace

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Other

    Votes: 15 25.4%

  • Total voters
    59
  • Poll closed .
GA is really starting to look like it might flip. It looks to me like it would only give Biden a tie though, and based on the tie breaker, the winner of that would be Trump. Because in a tie created by the non-popular vote selection method we use, what the US system does is go farther from the popular vote and tries to create a different group of state-based votes.
 
In the last 22 hours since I took the screenshot, Biden has gone up 131,711 votes in Georgia to Trump's 50,511, or 72.2% to 27.7%. Being down 18,144, if that trend continues, the remaining 61,000 votes would net Biden 43,000, putting him over the top. But only just.

Edit: If my napkin math is right, by about 8-9,000. Plus or minus.
 
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The reality is, it's nowhere near as bad as this. Most "legitimate" news outlets report facts. They'd be in hot water if they didn't. Yes, both FOX and CNN both have what we could call "entertainment" segments which are effectively editorials mixed with news bites. People need to understand that. And both engage in sensationalist headlines and they tend to slant things a certain way. The danger comes from people who get their news from "unknown" sources on Twitter or Facebook or something they read on a blog or Reddit. And it's even more sinister that places like Breitbart are considered "news" by some people.

It's one of the most tragic things Trump has done (among so many others), that he has eroded people's trust in the mainstream media. And people are more willing to trust what some random guy wrote on a blog than they are to trust what's on NPR's website. Simply because it doesn't fit their agenda. And because algorithms have been feeding them "slanted" news on YouTube or social media for months and it goes against what they believe or WANT to believe.

We have an education and cognitive ability problem first. And a slanted (legitimate) news problem....much further down on the list.

I agree. A free press is one of this country's founding principles and for him to attack that as "an enemy of the people", which was then repeated by his fanatic supporters, is just one of the huge reasons he needs to go away.
 
What's the reasoning behind the thought that mail-in votes are likely to be largely Democrat voters? I would have imagined that the majority of people who would prefer to vote by mail would be those who live in rural areas where their local polling station isn't close by and therefore harder to get to, or older voters who may have greater difficulty getting around or even military personnel, and their families, who live abroad - all of whom i would expect to lean more towards being Republican voters.

Or has Covid turned this on it's head?
 
TB
In the last 22 hours since I took the screenshot, Biden has gone up 131,711 votes in Georgia to Trump's 50,511, or 72.2% to 27.7%. Being down 18,144, if that trend continues, the remaining 61,000 votes would net Biden 43,000, putting him over the top. But only just.

Edit: If my napkin math is right, by about 8-9,000. Plus or minus.

Georgia is in re-count territory right now, and I'd imagine that Biden does not have enough of a lead there to get out of re-count territory on the other side by winning with a margin of more than 0.5% (~25k).
 
What's the reasoning behind the thought that mail-in votes are likely to be largely Democrat voters?

Trump said the mail in vote will be fraudulent, so Republicans are more likely to vote in person.

edit: And what Famine said, since the virus has also been politicized.
 
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What's the reasoning behind the thought that mail-in votes are likely to be largely Democrat voters?
Short version - the people that want to stay away from other people because of Covid are, not surprisingly, the ones that believe Covid is real. The majority of them are Democrats. Republicans voted in person because their leader has downplayed everything as no big deal. Since in person votes get counted first, that's why Trump's play has been that mail in voting is wrought with fraud becaseu he knew that's how this would go and was laying the basework for contesting the results and why they want the counting stopped.
 
TB
Short version - the people that want to stay away from other people because of Covid are, not surprisingly, the ones that believe Covid is real. The majority of them are Democrats. Republicans voted in person because their leader has downplayed everything as no big deal. Since in person votes get counted first, that's why Trump's play has been that mail in voting is wrought with fraud becaseu he knew that's how this would go and was laying the basework for contesting the results and why they want the counting stopped.

Additionally, the "mail-in is fraud" narrative will have further strengthened the divide along party lines, with each party doing their duty to live up to the politicization of the issue.

Voting mail-in is not a political issue. Heck, COVID is not a political issue. But at this point everything has to be a political issue.
 
Pennsylvania:
Biden needs 60%; Trump 39%
And the main counties left to report are turning 75-80% Biden...
Georgia:
Biden needs 55%, Trump 45%
This seems closer to me, but there's one big boy left and it's 75% Biden...

I've never been so interested in an election :lol:

Edit: And this five year-old Tweet just popped up into my timeline :lol:



 
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I've never been so interested in an election :lol:
It's crazy. Usually I just cast my vote and don't pay much attention afterwards until results are in, but this time I am watching news like a hawk and I am not typically into politics.

I just can't get over the fact that it's so close. How can this be? How can anyone look at the last 4 years and think it's okay to do 4 more? Are these people really who we share the world with? :nervous:
 
It's crazy. Usually I just cast my vote and don't pay much attention afterwards until results are in, but this time I am watching news like a hawk and I am not typically into politics.

I just can't get over the fact that it's so close. How can this be? How can anyone look at the last 4 years and think it's okay to do 4 more? Are these people really who we share the world with? :nervous:

In a way, we have already lost. The fact that it's this close means Americans (honestly I mean people) kinda suck. But we knew this going into the election just based on polls showing that Trump was a sure thing to go over 60+ million votes.

But in another way, we're winning. Because the US has had a wanna-be dictator installed in the highest office in the land and he has systematically tried to seize the nation, including seizing the election, and so far the nation's safeguards are kinda sorta barely holding on. I mean, the fact that Pennsylvania is still counting (as of this exact moment) is a bit of a victory.
 
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It's crazy. Usually I just cast my vote and don't pay much attention afterwards until results are in, but this time I am watching news like a hawk and I am not typically into politics.

I just can't get over the fact that it's so close. How can this be? How can anyone look at the last 4 years and think it's okay to do 4 more? Are these people really who we share the world with? :nervous:
So much this.
 
Nevada counting its votes...

tenor.gif
 
In a way, we have already lost. The fact that it's this close means Americans (honestly I mean people) kinda suck. But we knew this going into the election just based on polls showing that Trump was a sure thing to go over 60+ million votes.
I truly cannot wrap my head around it. But then again, when I was a kid my dad told me something along the lines of "statistically, 50% of people are below average IQ" or something like that and that's ringing very true here and I think about that a lot. The way people view Trump are from two very different angles in this country. To ignore all that is wrong with what Trump has done and still support him is frightening. But that's the problem, they do not see his actions as wrong. Sorry, I won't derail the topic, just ranting. Happy to see so many voted, is all.
 
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It's crazy. Usually I just cast my vote and don't pay much attention afterwards until results are in, but this time I am watching news like a hawk and I am not typically into politics.

I just can't get over the fact that it's so close. How can this be? How can anyone look at the last 4 years and think it's okay to do 4 more? Are these people really who we share the world with? :nervous:
Reportedly its the highest turnout in over a century. It's so close there's bound to be recounts and lawsuits causing additional delays in the results. We have polarization of the electorate - living in different worlds, as you say. Demographically, socially, economically, there are many ways to analyze the electorate. Pundits, pollsters and professors all have their different takes on it. That so many people would rally to a such a compromised and unconventional figure as Trump tells us something has gone wrong for many people. There is great dissatisfaction at hand.
 
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Reportedly its the highest turnout in over a century. It's so close there's bound to be recounts and lawsuits causing additional delays in the results. We have polarization of the electorate - living in different worlds, as you say. Demographically, socially, economically, there are many ways to analyze the electorate. Pundits, pollsters and professors all have their different takes on it. That so many people would rally to a such a compromised and unconventional figure as Trump tells us something has gone wrong for many people. There is great dissatisfaction at hand.

I think it tells us that a lot of people are authoritarians at heart. And the EC is letting them get away with it. There is not as much of a polarization as it seems. The EC is making the polarization in the US look a lot more closely divided than it actually is. In reality, this election is not particularly close.
 
In a way, we have already lost. The fact that it's this close means Americans (honestly I mean people) kinda suck. But we knew this going into the election just based on polls showing that Trump was a sure thing to go over 60+ million votes.

It seems to be more of the same two party system we have - just more extreme. People are just voting along party lines - for their team. Many Trump supporters will think that the media is out to get him.
 
I think it tells us that a lot of people are authoritarians at heart. And the EC is letting them get away with it. There is not as much of a polarization as it seems. The EC is making the polarization in the US look a lot more closely divided than it actually is. In reality, this election is not particularly close.
I mean, 48% of the country going orange is close. Definitely not a landslide win and I don’t think it will get to above 4%. Sure, EC makes it seem even worse.
 
GA is really starting to look like it might flip. It looks to me like it would only give Biden a tie though, and based on the tie breaker, the winner of that would be Trump. Because in a tie created by the non-popular vote selection method we use, what the US system does is go farther from the popular vote and tries to create a different group of state-based votes.
Just turned on the TV to CNN interviewing a GA election director and he said there's about 60,000 ballots left to count in GA, only about 3,000 in Fulton County, and according to CNN's numbers Trump was ahead by 13,000 during this interview a couple minutes ago.
 
Just turned on the TV to CNN interviewing a GA election director and he said there's about 60,000 ballots left to count in GA, only about 3,000 in Fulton County, and according to CNN's numbers Trump was ahead by 13,000 during this interview a couple minutes ago.

Clayton, Bibb, Richmond, Chatham, Muscogee, Douglas, Cobb, and Rockdale still have a lot of outstanding votes and lean heavily Biden. Most of the rest of the remaining counties (other than those) lean Trump, but the populations there are far lower (though there are more of them). I still think it flips.
 
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I've been listing the shifts a few pages back and interpolated the shift overnight.

Total....Margin....Shift
84%.....4.2%......NA
85%.....4.0%......0.2%
(86......................0.35%)
87%.....3.3%......0.35%
88%.....3.1%......0.2%
89%.....2.6%......0.5%
(90%..................0.2%)
(91......................0.2%)
(92......................0.2%)
(93......................0.2%)
(94......................0.2%)
(95......................0.2%)
96%.....0.4%......0.2%

It's averaged a .25% shift per % complete.

Perdue is down to 50.0%! One more tenth and he goes to a runoff against Ossoff, and an opportunity to flip a senate seat! Huge deal!
 
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In a way, we have already lost. The fact that it's this close means Americans (honestly I mean people) kinda suck. But we knew this going into the election just based on polls showing that Trump was a sure thing to go over 60+ million votes.
I get not liking Biden. I think I've made that pretty clear. But liking Trump? After the last four years? That's something I don't understand. I don't mean tolerating Trump, but actually supporting him over others who ostensibly represent largely the same segment of the population. I don't get that.

Nobody super strong came out to bat for the Democratic Party this cycle. That's been too frequent a trend, but I think Trump had more than a little to do with it as well, not in a "Trump's fault" sort of way, but because he was seen as someone easily opposed. People were coming out of the woodwork to take him down.

On the Republican side, you had Bill Weld. I'd bet good money Weld would have easily opposed anyone the DNC fielded, and honestly I would have been okay with that, even with the knowledge that certain individuals' freedoms likely would have been lost due to the conservative agenda. It would still be better than Trump. Weld got 2.4% of the vote in the Republican primary.

People actually support Trump. More than anything, I'm embarrassed. How can any self-respecting person support such a sad sack of ****? It's un-American.
 
I don't get that.
It's not worth trying I don't think. It's not worth arguing with them. You just have to let these people realize their faults on their own overtime. I mean hell, it wasn't until I was 32 this year to really understand what these racial and police protests were really about, and it just sorta clicked.

The people who are supporting Trump are doing it to spite you, and everybody else who doesn't support Trump. For whatever reason, their value systems are warped in way that makes them enjoy the chaos, enjoy the disregard for norms, enjoy disrespecting the system and other people. They subscribe to hypermachismo and escalation and intimidation as resolution tactics. They believe others are constantly judging their actions and they cannot stand the idea of being challenged - any challenge is seen as a competition, and the only thing that matters is winning. A reasonable person doesn't even consider winning or losing during an argument, they only consider information known and unknown, and maybe they'll learn something. Trump supporters don't care about learning things, they care about winning.

I'd wager the reason they care about winning is because they're poor, white, have always been that way, and always will be that way. They're really tired of the New England Patriots or the LA Lakers winning championships instead of the Steelers or the Thunder. They don't have anything to be proud of, and suddenly a hypernationalist populist president comes along and tells them publicly to go be assholes as often as possible. Let the asshole flow through you! And so they did, and they loved it because it makes them feel like they're winning. It distracts them from the reality - the actual real reality - that they're not winning because they used their freedum to choose to stick with the manufacturing or farming or oil or mining industry that their family had always stuck to and they're not getting anywhere in life because of it.
 
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Clayton, Bibb, Richmond, Chatham, Muscogee, Douglas, Cobb, and Rockdale still have a lot of outstanding votes and lean heavily Biden. Most of the rest of the remaining counties (other than those) lean Trump, but the populations there are far lower (though there are more of them). I still think it flips.
As of 7 minutes ago I got a notification that a Chatham County Judge dismissed Trumps lawsuit.
 

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