The GTP Unofficial 2020 US Elections Thread

GTPlanet Exit Poll - Which Presidential Ticket Did You Vote For?

  • Trump/Pence

    Votes: 16 27.1%

  • Biden/Harris

    Votes: 20 33.9%

  • Jorgensen/Cohen

    Votes: 7 11.9%

  • Hawkins/Walker

    Votes: 1 1.7%

  • La Riva/Freeman

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • De La Fuente/Richardson

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Blankenship/Mohr

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Carroll/Patel

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Simmons/Roze

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Charles/Wallace

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Other

    Votes: 15 25.4%
  • Total voters
    59
  • Poll closed .
You coulda posted that 7 hours ago when they all left. :lol: CNN spoke to a guy saying they were still processing ~800,000 votes into the wee hours of the morning but this feed paints a different picture.
 
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McLaren
Been happening the past couple weeks; reports of the GOP already abandoning Trump b/c he's no longer useful to them.

There was a similar thought brought forth tonight regarding Fox: there's a claim Trump called Murdoch demanding them to take back declaring Arizona and Murdoch hung up. The belief is even though Fox is Trump's biggest network, they are looking at a post-Trump presidency.
Click to expand...

If Trump does lose, his Russian buddies might buy the OAN network for him and then he sets out to be the dominant media outlet of the radical right.
 
Keef
You coulda posted that 7 hours ago when they all left. :lol: CNN spoke to a guy saying they were still processing ~800,000 votes into the wee hours of the morning but this feed paints a different picture.
Click to expand...

The numbers are still updating. I don't know if that's coming from this location or another, but the people back there must be doing something.

The gap is down to 170,000 votes.
 
ROAD_DOGG33J
The numbers are still updating. I don't know if that's coming from this location or another, but the people back there must be doing something.

The gap is down to 170,000 votes.
Click to expand...
That 800,000 number was the total estimate for uncounted votes across PA. Notable, because like you said the gap is only 170,000. But it hasn't changed since I saw that interview at least an hour ago.

By the way, Georgia is down to 31,000 votes, .6%, with 5% left to go.
 
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Arizona: Biden needs 42% of the remaining votes to win, Trump needs 57%.

Pennsylvania: Biden needs 60% of the remaining votes to win, Trump needs 39%.

Georgia: Biden needs 56% of the remaining votes to win, Trump needs 44%.

Edit: Philadelphia is looking good for Biden, he has a massive lead there and they have only counted 70% of the votes. It really looks like he can win PA now.

Georgia seems to be going Biden's way too. He could very well end up winning all three of these states for a total of 306 electoral votes.
 
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Where are the numbers that Arizona is narrowing coming from? Unless I'm missing something they haven't changed on NYT.
 
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Keef
That 800,000 number was the total estimate for uncounted votes across PA. Notable, because like you said the gap is only 170,000. But it hasn't changed since I saw that interview at least an hour ago.

By the way, Georgia is down to 31,000 votes, .6%, with 5% left to go.
Click to expand...

AP moved down to 164.5k.

Regarding Arizona, some data company is saying it could stay red, but I'm not seeing it. It's possible, but it seems like they're going more blue this year. They replaced a Republican Senator with a Democratic one.

Article from AP on why they called AZ for Biden:
https://www.azfamily.com/news/polit...cle_924ca49e-1e9b-11eb-8d70-ab46aeff34e0.html

edit: Arizona also has the McCain factor. Trump trashed the man.
 
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So my brother (in Arizona) just posted this on facebook. Any ideas?

upload_2020-11-4_21-38-0.png
 
R1600Turbo
So my brother (in Arizona) just posted this on facebook. Any ideas?

View attachment 969615
Click to expand...
https://www.azfamily.com/news/polit...cle_037811aa-1ed6-11eb-b039-b37a1017a425.html
If you signed up for an early or mail-in ballot for the 2020 election, but chose to vote in person, your ballot will show up as 'canceled' when you try to track it online.

According to Arizona Secretary of State, Katie Hobbs, the 'canceled' status just means that your mail-in ballot was canceled so that your in-person ballot can be counted. People who chose to vote in-person cannot track their ballots. Their voter status was validated when they checked in with their ID. Ballots themselves do not contain identifying information. Tracking for mail-in ballots comes from the envelope that voters must sign.
Click to expand...
 
eran0004
Arizona: Biden needs 42% of the remaining votes to win, Trump needs 57%.

Pennsylvania: Biden needs 60% of the remaining votes to win, Trump needs 39%.

Georgia: Biden needs 56% of the remaining votes to win, Trump needs 44%.

Edit: Philadelphia is looking good for Biden, he has a massive lead there and they have only counted 70% of the votes. It really looks like he can win PA now.

Georgia seems to be going Biden's way too. He could very well end up winning all three of these states for a total of 306 electoral votes.
Click to expand...
I've been tracking each percentage and its shift since 84% total. The average shift per percent completion is .32%. Based on the 11% remaining, we can expect the balance to shift toward Biden by 3.52%. He's down by 2.6% right now so that's a tight margin. The only rule PA has to trigger a recount is "three qualified electors" must request it.

ROAD_DOGG33J
AP moved down to 164.5k.

Regarding Arizona, some data company is saying it could stay red, but I'm not seeing it. It's possible, but it seems like they're going more blue this year. They replaced a Republican Senator with a Democratic one.

Article from AP on why they called AZ for Biden:
https://www.azfamily.com/news/polit...cle_924ca49e-1e9b-11eb-8d70-ab46aeff34e0.html

edit: Arizona also has the McCain factor. Trump trashed the man.
Click to expand...
AZ was trending red while it was eking out tallies slowly. Unfortunately they put a stop to that so we won't see the next trend til 1am, but even at 9pm when they dumped a few it still trended red.

UKMikey
Also on The Hill, things are getting violent as a house displaying a Dump Trump sign is fired on in Ohio.

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-...after-gunfire-opened-on-house-with-dump-trump
Click to expand...
Green is a sort of country suburb in between Akron and Canton to the south. It's at the very southern edge of the slightly blue county of Summit where Akron is. The county to the south and southeast, where Canton is, Stark, was 59% Trump. You'll notice that almost all these "country suburb" counties around Ohio cities favor Trump but aren't super heavy.

Country people be crazy. I don't go camping without a gun, I don't trust them.
 
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Georgia is still at .6% but only 29,000 votes. Chopped another 2,000 off within the same tenth of a percent which is pretty telling as to how Biden-dense these votes are.
 
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eran0004
Georgia: Biden needs 56% of the remaining votes to win, Trump needs 44%.

Georgia seems to be going Biden's way too. He could very well end up winning all three of these states for a total of 306 electoral votes.
Click to expand...

Doesn't rynzo have to eat his hat ... or something ... if Georgia does go blue? :P
 
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Keef
Georgia is still at .6% but only 29,000 votes. Chopped another 2,000 off within the same tenth of a percent which is pretty telling as to how Biden-dense these votes are.
Click to expand...
There's been some random reports GA still has another 90-100K votes to be counted for tomorrow? Anyone else heard similar?
 
McLaren
There's been some random reports GA still has another 90-100K votes to be counted for tomorrow? Anyone else heard similar?
Click to expand...
NYT's tooltip says GA will continue counting through the night.

GA is down to .5%, 23,000 votes.

CNN hasn't spoken about NC all night and NYT doesn't have any good information other than absentees have to arrive by November 12 to be counted. Maybe they're waiting until they're all gathered to report them like some other states?

Edit: @McLaren CNN is talking to a Fulton County election director right now, they're planning to count through the night, they've had to adjudicate over 120,000 ballots, provisional ballots won't be counted until Friday. NYT shows Columbus, Macon, Augusta, Savannah, and Clayton County all still under 90%.

Keef
Speaking of GA and runoffs, big deal time: Ossoff is catching Perdue slowly but surely. Most of the Atlanta metro is still counting senate votes and they're all favoring Ossoff, as are Columbus, Macon, Augusta, Savannah, and other small ones. He's only 2.7% behind. It's plausible...definitely could bring Perdue below 50% and send them to a second runoff.
Click to expand...
Now Ossoff is 2.5% behind, bringing Perdue down to 50.1%. Only .2% to go, and Ossoff is leading several counties still under 90%. Ossoff is only at 47.6 so he's not likely to get a majority but the runoff seems almost guaranteed at this point.
 
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FuriousDemon
No wonder ryzno saw only trump stickers.
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Very true, I also drive across a 1/4 of the state to get to work everyday too.

Edit: I've lived in some rather sketchy and very nice areas in the actual Atlanta area. GA born...
 
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Republicans have now flipped eight seats in the House and gained 6. The congressional massacre continues.

Dems still have 13 to go to get a 218 majority and I'm counting 15 "guaranteed" seats. They'll likely have a very weak +3 majority.

Gerrymandering works, folks.

Edit: Huntington Beach and Newport Beach are about to elect a Republican to their House district Wow. So are Yorba Linda and Fullerton.

The trend I'm spotting after spending 30 minutes browsing many of these flipped or flipping blue-to-red districts is that...wealthier than average white people are choosing Republicans. Can't say I expected anything else honestly, gotta protect those suburbs so you can be racist in private.
 
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Keef
Edit: Huntington Beach and Newport Beach are about to elect a Republican to their House district Wow. So are Yorba Linda and Fullerton.
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Very wealthy areas, so not surprised there. Also based on past history and party affiliation it’s expected.
3DF9355E-9426-42AF-ACFE-9664DDABE25E.png
 
Predictably, the Trump campaign has filed lawsuits in multiple states, laying the groundwork for contesting the outcome.
WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump’s campaign filed lawsuits Wednesday in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Georgia, laying the groundwork for contesting battleground states as he slipped behind Democrat Joe Biden in the hunt for the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win the White House.

The new filings, joining existing Republican legal challenges in Pennsylvania and Nevada, demand better access for campaign observers to locations where ballots are being processed and counted, and raise absentee ballot concerns, the campaign said.
Click to expand...
https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-seeks-voting-stop-25762f69b27dfbccc4fd8077fb5fdc91


Keef
Republicans have now flipped eight seats in the House and gained 6. The congressional massacre continues.

Dems still have 13 to go to get a 218 majority and I'm counting 15 "guaranteed" seats. They'll likely have a very weak +3 majority.

Edit: Huntington Beach and Newport Beach are about to elect a Republican to their House district Wow. So are Yorba Linda and Fullerton.
Click to expand...
This is stunning news. I definitely did not expect this, right along with everyone else. "Red mirage, Blue shift" likely a chimera.



Yet another interesting question is the viability of the polling industry.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news...ustry-us-election-2016-debacle-repeats-itself

https://thehill.com/homenews/media/...-done-after-election-misses-devastating-to-my

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/11/04/henry-olsen-polling-industry-failure/
 
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I read somewhere that one of the reasons the pollings are different from the result is that x amount of people voting for Trump are embarrased and don't want to admit it in a polling.
 
Anyone think that this will all be over by January 20, especially if Trump loses?
 

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