The GTP Unofficial 2020 US Elections Thread

[Tornado]

They're really tired of the New England Patriots

I mean really that's all you needed to say.

 

[Danoff]

Just turned on the TV to CNN interviewing a GA election director and he said there's about 60,000 ballots left to count in GA, only about 3,000 in Fulton County, and according to CNN's numbers Trump was ahead by 13,000 during this interview a couple minutes ago.

Clayton, Bibb, Richmond, Chatham, Muscogee, Douglas, Cobb, and Rockdale still have a lot of outstanding votes and lean heavily Biden. Most of the rest of the remaining counties (other than those) lean Trump, but the populations there are far lower (though there are more of them). I still think it flips.

Ok just kidding. Just saw the Georgia update. It's really close based on what remains. It kinda depends on how much of the vote left in red georgia counties bucks the trend just based on being mail-in. So for example, you have a red county that's going 70% for trump in votes already counted, but then we're counting the remainder of the votes at this point which may not be 70% trump at all.

I think based on Clayton and Douglas still having a large number of votes outstanding that it could flip, but I'm not as confident as I was a few minutes ago.

(14.7k is the current spread)

 

[eran0004]

The window in Georgia is closing. With 98% of the votes counted, Biden needs 57% of the remaining votes to win the state, but I think the 98% figure isn't entirely accurate. I saw some figure mentioning that there were 60,000 votes left to count and in that case Biden needs 63% of those votes to win.

In Pennsylvania the latest figures give that Biden needs 60% of the remaining votes to win.

 

[Outspacer]

Who fact-checks the fact-checkers? [/Juvenal]

A conflation of fact-checkers?

 

[FuriousDemon]

PA is up to 92% counted and difference is 116k votes (1.8%)

 

[huskeR32]

Nevada counting its votes...

 

[Scaff]

I really wouldn't mind seeing her go even if the Democrats retain the majority. I appreciate the work she's done in the past but we need younger leadership.

They should give it to AOC just to see the GOP explode.

 

[Danoff]

I saw some figure mentioning that there were 60,000 votes left to count and in that case Biden needs 63% of those votes to win.

Just based on eyeballing the remaining counties and how much is left, I think it might be like... exactly that amount.

 

[ROAD_DOGG33J]

Did nevada just update - gap is 12,000 now

 

[Biggles]

I think it tells us that a lot of people are authoritarians at heart. And the EC is letting them get away with it. There is not as much of a polarization as it seems. The EC is making the polarization in the US look a lot more closely divided than it actually is. In reality, this election is not particularly close.

The question is, with a popular vote, would it turn out more Republican voters in places like California & New York who don't feel there's any point in voting now? It's a pretty complicated equation to figure out how a popular vote might shift the numbers.

Bottom line, it's alarming how many Americans seem to identify enthusiastically with a wanna-be authoritarian like Trump. Unlike you, however, I believe economic inequality is at the heart of the problem. Since Reagan ever decreasing marginal tax rates have led to the rich getting richer & the poor & middle classes (at best) stagnating. However philosophically "fair" you think this is, quite clearly a lot of Americans are very discontented.

 

[FuriousDemon]

Did nevada just update - gap is 12,000 now

Looks that way.

 

[Keef]

Ok just kidding. Just saw the Georgia update. It's really close based on what remains. It kinda depends on how much of the vote left in red georgia counties bucks the trend just based on being mail-in. So for example, you have a red county that's going 70% for trump in votes already counted, but then we're counting the remainder of the votes at this point which may not be 70% trump at all.

I think based on Clayton and Douglas still having a large number of votes outstanding that it could flip, but I'm not as confident as I was a few minutes ago.

(14.7k is the current spread)

The last 2% total update only seems to shift the margin by 1% which is a much lower rate than the previous average. In fact I'd wager the rate of shift is actually going down. Early last night it averaged to .32%, then .25%, now it's below .20%.

This made my day!

Nevada just got a few numbers in NV. Gap stretched to 12,000 votes, 1%, and CNN said Biden got 64% of that ~10,000 vote dump.

 

[Tornado]

Second in line of succession for the Presidency (after VP Pence), Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi may be on the chopping block due to wholly unanticipated loss of Democratic seats in the House of Representatives.

https://thehill.com/homenews/house/...rship-changes-after-negative-election-results

Honestly if their majority becomes as narrow as it is appearing to be, I would be more surprised if they didn't try to toss her. She already had pseudo challenges against her flare up a couple times since Trump won in 2016, and I'm not sure her rhetoric about Trump and COVID and her COVID relief isn't at least in part to blame for the beatings the Democrats are taking in the house.

 

[Danoff]

The last 2% total update only seems to shift the margin by 1% which is a much lower rate than the previous average. In fact I'd wager the rate of shift is actually going down. Early last night it averaged to .32%, then .25%, now it's below .20%.

Just depends on where updates are coming from. Take a look here:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-georgia.html

Click "view all" under "results by county". Some of the remaining counties that haven't tallied their final votes are fairly populous and lean Biden.

Edit:

Nevada just updated again, 11k

 

[GTFan24]

Correction: Nevada is at 11k

 

[ROAD_DOGG33J]

This made my day!

That's gold Jerry! Gold

 

[Joey D]

Nevada 👍

 

[McLaren]

There isn't much you can do when they don't even seem to believe in fact checkers.

Fact Checker: The sky is not green.

Paul Muat: Wrong, this has been debunked.

Breitbart: The sky is indeed green.

Paul Muat: See, this source gets it!

 

[Keef]

Just depends on where updates are coming from. Take a look here:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-georgia.html

Click "view all" under "results by county". Some of the remaining counties that haven't tallied their final votes are fairly populous and lean Biden.

Clayton County you're my boy!!!!

@Danoff The "size of lead" map is pretty interesting. The counties where Trump has the highest leads - some very high leads - are all counties bordering the Atlanta Metro, especially to the north. I realize that's Appalachian country but the proximity to ATL suggests their mindset is some sort of counter to Atlanta. They're mostly country suburbs and small farms. All those southern GA counties with only slight Trump leads are actually considerably more rural than the red counties north of Atlanta. Here's the map of Cherokee County where it's mostly "country suburbs" and upper-middle suburbs with some wealthy areas.

 

[ROAD_DOGG33J]

Correction: Nevada is at 11k

Roger that, I see movement

 

[Eunos_Cosmo]

Weird, Fox news has Chatnam county at 100% reported whereas NYT says 87% with the same vote numbers.

 

[ROAD_DOGG33J]

What's the story with Arizona?

 

[Famine]

Each full percentage point in PA seems to reduce the difference between Biden and Trump by 15k votes. Right now there's 8-9% remaining to count, and 115k between them - which would track to a 12-15K win for Biden...

Mad.

 

[Joey D]

What's the story with Arizona?

We won't know anything until tonight (9pm EST or whatever Arizona considers time since it can't follow MDT or MST properly).

 

[Danoff]

Weird, Fox news has Chatnam county at 100% reported whereas NYT says 87% with the same vote numbers.

Yea that would be bad if that were true. Just based on quick math here, Chathnam has 13% left to report out of 116k votes. With a 17% preference for biden that works out to 2500 votes - which balances out a ton of remaining trump-heavy counties. If we do the same math for Clayton, 103k at 8% left to report with 71% preference for biden, that works out to 6600 votes. So it's clear that if Chathnam is actually done, things are looking bad for flipping the winner.

(For reference there are more counties like Douglas at 93% reported of 68k with 25% preference for Biden resulting in 1100 votes)

Again, the statistics for the remaining votes in all counties may not line up with the statistics for what has been counted to date, even in counties where Trump is taking like 70% preference.

 

[Liquid]

theres_tweet_always.txt

 

[McLaren]

Each full percentage point in PA seems to reduce the difference between Biden and Trump by 15k votes. Right now there's 8-9% remaining to count, and 115k between them - which would track to a 12-15K win for Biden...

Mad.

That's nowhere as optimistic as the folks thinking Biden would eek out a 100-200K lead.

 

[Keef]

Each full percentage point in PA seems to reduce the difference between Biden and Trump by 15k votes. Right now there's 8-9% remaining to count, and 115k between them - which would track to a 12-15K win for Biden...

Mad.

It's been really consistent so far. I ran some numbers last night and had the same conclusion.

 

[Danoff]

That's nowhere as optimistic as the folks thinking Biden would eek out a 100-200K lead.

"Nick Corasaniti, in Philadelphia 56m ago
Pennsylvania election officials plan to hold a news conference this afternoon. Democrats here are increasingly confident that Biden will have a big lead when all votes are counted"

I can only assume that the remaining demographics look very favorable.

 

[Eunos_Cosmo]

"Nick Corasaniti, in Philadelphia 56m ago
Pennsylvania election officials plan to hold a news conference this afternoon. Democrats here are increasingly confident that Biden will have a big lead when all votes are counted"

I can only assume that the remaining demographics look very favorable.

I think the people on the ground know a lot more than we do...which is probably why AZ was called so seemingly early. I'm still suspicious about that one...