The GTP Unofficial 2020 US Elections Thread

[eiriksmil]

Would this be the same media that is constantly reporting fake news?

Well, unless he is referring to Breitbart as media, it must be as they all obviously report nothing but fake news. Even Fox is now on his ****list it seems.

Trump asked his own supporters to try to vote twice. It was at a rally, it's on tape, and still, he got away with it. In a healthy democraty, this should have stopped almost everyone to even consider his name on a ballot. And have sent him in jail.

Yes, it's mind blowing how the office of the presidency can act in this manner and it's "okay". It's not OK, but it does not seem to have consequences.

Having said that, at this point it may atleast seem like democracy will prevail

 

[Danoff]

So the next update in Arizona is in 6 hours, next update in NV is tomorrow (good lord), and PA thinks they might know the winner tonight. Georgia is slowly chipping away periodically.

 

[Keef]

So the next update in Arizona is in 6 hours, next update in NV is tomorrow (good lord), and PA thinks they might know the winner tonight. Georgia is slowly chipping away periodically.

12,835 gap with 47,277 left according to NYT five minutes ago. 65% of that is 30,730. At minimum, Biden needs 28% of these leftover votes.

 

[Rossell2]

12,835 gap with 47,277 left according to NYT five minutes ago. 65% of that is 30,730. At minimum, Biden needs 28% of these leftover votes.

Do we think that's doable?

 

[CodeRedR51]

Honestly think we're doomed with the cheeto for another 4 years. Then we can get rid of him for good because he can't run again. Though we all know he's the kind of person to try and change that rule.

 

[eiriksmil]

Honestly thing we're doomed with the cheeto for another 4 years. Then we can get rid of him for good because he can't run again. Though we all know he's the kind of person to try and change that rule.

Hey it's just an amendment.. Amendments have been repealed before. Well, once.

 

[TB]

I don't have screenshot data from Arizona from yesterday but:

Georgia - Yesterday: 94%, Today: 99%
Biden
Yesterday: 2,283,070
Today: 2,423,608
Difference: 140,538

Trump
Yesterday: 2,383,414
Today: 2,436,443
Difference: 53,029

Biden is down 12,835. With 47,277 ballots left, maintaining proportions, Biden "should" get 34,325 to Trump's 12,952 giving them a total of 2,457,933 and 2,449,395, a difference of 8,538.

Holy crap, my napkin math from earlier is holding!

Nevada - Yesterday: 67%, Today: 76%
Biden
Yesterday: 588,252
Today: 604,251
Difference: 15,999

Trump
Yesterday: 580,605
Today: 592,813
Difference:12,208

If that continues, Biden should hold Nevada.

 

[Keef]

Do we think that's doable?

@TB is running the math too and the answer is yes. It's doable but well within recount territory.

I'd like to highlight the popular vote trend here. It's currently about 3.8 million and 50.5% for Biden, a genuine majority. Hillary never had an actual majority, she ended with 48% and a lead of about 2.9 million.

And California has only counted 74% of its vote. I already did the math, based on current CA numbers, Biden will add to his gap about 2.7 million votes, just from CA. That puts him at about a 6.5 million popular vote lead, or probably over a 51% majority.

There are several Trump states still counting of course, most with about 90% left to go, so Trump's total will obviously increase. But Biden's gap will increase quicker, because not only will CA dump a whopping 2.7 million votes for him, but IL, MD, NJ, NY, and MA are all at 85% complete or less. I did the math on Chicago too - Cook County alone will add over 400,000 votes to Biden's gap. Manhattan is favoring Biden by 84% and is only 60% complete! Biden looks to gain over 300,000 votes from Manhattan alone, let alone the other buroughs combined - Bronx and Brooklyn are 74 and 77% complete respectively, likely combining for another 300,000 votes. Newark NJ is 74% complete, Rockville MD is 64% complete, Baltimore MD is only 60% complete.

CA will feed Biden 2.7 million more popular votes but all these other strongholds could feed him another 2 million, maybe more. A lead of 8 million in the popular vote and a 52% majority is plausible by certification time.

 

[Joey D]

It's doable but well within recount territory.

Let them recount, it's unlikely a recount would shift anything enough to be one way or another. I think I remember them saying in Wisconsin, when they did the recount in 2016 they found 131 votes or something that needed to be changed.

 

[Danoff]

As of just now there are only 4 counties in Georgia that are less than ">98%" tallied, and the margin is 12,768.

The 4 counties are:
Chatham, which is trending at 17% Biden's favor, with 87% of the vote tallied, and 116,159 total votes
Floyd, which is trending at 42% in trump's favor, with 88% of the vote tallied, and 37,914 total votes.
Taylor, which is trending at 32% in trump's favor, with 89% of the vote tallied, and 3,535 total votes.
Clayton, which is trending at 71% in Biden's favor, with 95% of the vote tallied, and 104,935 total votes.

If the trend continued as it has in the past,
Chatham would reduce the gap by 0.17*0.13*116,159 = 2567 votes
Floyd would increase the gap by 0.42*0.12*37,914 = 1910 votes
Taylor would increase the gap by 0.32*0.11*3535= 124 votes
Clayton would reduce the gap by 0.71*0.05*104935 = 3725 votes

So the projected Trump victory is by a margin of 8,500 votes. I'm doubtful Biden will overcome that, and I'm doubtful that a recount would change it.

 

[TexRex]

Too many maths.

Let them recount, it's unlikely a recount would shift anything enough to be one way or another. I think I remember them saying in Wisconsin, when they did the recount in 2016 they found 131 votes or something that needed to be changed.

Count only Biden votes first and let's see if we can't make that 74-year-old blood pump burst.

 

[Keef]

As of just now there are only 4 counties in Georgia that are less than ">98%" tallied, and the margin is 12,768.

The 4 counties are:
Chatham, which is trending at 17% Biden's favor, with 87% of the vote tallied, and 116,159 total votes
Floyd, which is trending at 42% in trump's favor, with 88% of the vote tallied, and 37,914 total votes.
Taylor, which is trending at 32% in trump's favor, with 89% of the vote tallied, and 3,535 total votes.
Clayton, which is trending at 71% in Biden's favor, with 95% of the vote tallied, and 104,935 total votes.

If the trend continued as it has in the past,
Chatham would reduce the gap by 0.17*0.13*116,159 = 2567 votes
Floyd would increase the gap by 0.42*0.12*37,914 = 1910 votes
Taylor would increase the gap by 0.32*0.11*3535= 124 votes
Clayton would reduce the gap by 0.71*0.05*104935 = 3725 votes

So the projected Trump victory is by a margin of 8,500 votes. I'm doubtful Biden will overcome that, and I'm doubtful that a recount would change it.

I don't think your math is adding up. As of 38 minutes ago, NYT reported that GA had over 47,000 votes left to count. Your county percentage projections make sense but they show that Biden will get more than 50% of the combined share. Biden only needs 28% of 47,000 to break even. If you used the current "remaining" percentages displayed, then those percentages are wrong according to the actual reported number remaining.

 

[Crash]

Though it hasn't been called, but following FiveThirtyEight, they think it's likely Biden will hold Nevada. That begs an interesting question though; how will different networks handle calling Nevada? For those outlets that have called Arizona for Biden, calling Nevada for him means he will reach 270 and win the election unless they retract AZ; for those who have not called AZ, they can call NV without putting Biden at 270.

 

[CodeRedR51]

@TB is running the math too and the answer is yes. It's doable but well within recount territory.

I'd like to highlight the popular vote trend here. It's currently about 3.8 million and 50.5% for Biden, a genuine majority. Hillary never had an actual majority, she ended with 48% and a lead of about 2.9 million.

And California has only counted 74% of its vote. I already did the math, based on current CA numbers, Biden will add to his gap about 2.7 million votes, just from CA. That puts him at about a 6.5 million popular vote lead, or probably over a 51% majority.

There are several Trump states still counting of course, most with about 90% left to go, so Trump's total will obviously increase. But Biden's gap will increase quicker, because not only will CA dump a whopping 2.7 million votes for him, but IL, MD, NJ, NY, and MA are all at 85% complete or less. I did the math on Chicago too - Cook County alone will add over 400,000 votes to Biden's gap. Manhattan is favoring Biden by 84% and is only 60% complete! Biden looks to gain over 300,000 votes from Manhattan alone, let alone the other buroughs combined - Bronx and Brooklyn are 74 and 77% complete respectively, likely combining for another 300,000 votes. Newark NJ is 74% complete, Rockville MD is 64% complete, Baltimore MD is only 60% complete.

CA will feed Biden 2.7 million more popular votes but all these other strongholds could feed him another 2 million, maybe more. A lead of 8 million in the popular vote and a 52% majority is plausible by certification time.

Funny how that works, huh? Majority vote loses.

 

[Keef]

Though it hasn't been called, but following FiveThirtyEight, they think it's likely Biden will hold Nevada. That begs an interesting question though; how will different networks handle calling Nevada? For those outlets that have called Arizona for Biden, calling Nevada for him means he will reach 270 and win the election unless they retract AZ; for those who have not called AZ, they can call NV without putting Biden at 270.

That's a good point, and it's something Fox News will have to pull out of their ass.

 

[Danoff]

I don't think your math is adding up. As of 38 minutes ago, NYT reported that GA had over 47,000 votes left to count. Your county percentage projections make sense but they show that Biden will get more than 50% of the combined share. Biden only needs 28% of 47,000 to break even.

They just added Forsyth county, which leans trump, at needing to count 3% of its 124k votes which would translate to 3700 more votes (expected to increase Trump's lead by 1295 votes).

Biden would need 28% more than trump to break even. So Biden would need about 30k out of 47k votes to close the gap, and I'm saying that based on what's left, it doesn't look like that can happen.

 

[Tornado]

 

[eiriksmil]

So the projected Trump victory is by a margin of 8,500 votes. I'm doubtful Biden will overcome that, and I'm doubtful that a recount would change it.

That is quite a big margin when it's this close and no way in hell a recount would change it. Having said that, if those projections are wrong and the last portion favours Biden, Biden could win AZ, NV, GA, PA and just be killing it. At the same time, I have no problem seeing this being real close, with Trump barely winning it. Very exciting. Biden's chances in GA are looking slim though.

On a side note, his kid Eric on Twitter:
"The amount of FRAUD being reported in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Nevada, Georgia and Wisconsin is unreal. Please report personal experiences. Please have all facts and evidence. #StopTheSteal"

Because personal experiences is the best kind of factual evidence. I absolutely love how Twitter is flagging every single one of their tweets at the moment

 

[Keef]

Biden would need 28% more

That's the key, oops lol.

 

[Danoff]

That's the key, oops lol.

All of that was based on things just continuing the way they have been. But weird things happen in voting statistics when you get to the end. You can hit a statistical group that starts looking like 100% one way or the other just based on the fact that it's all got some common characteristic (like being an early mail-in ballot or something). So I'm not ruling out Georgia, but it's looking like Trump by a small margin.

 

[FuriousDemon]

All of that was based on things just continuing the way they have been. But weird things happen in voting statistics when you get to the end. You can hit a statistical group that starts looking like 100% one way or the other just based on the fact that it's all got some common characteristic (like being an early mail-in ballot or something). So I'm not ruling out Georgia, but it's looking like Trump by a small margin.

I feel like there was a case of voter fraud happening. You know, when I look at the map in GA the red color looks dangerous. Probably means fraud. So bad for our country. So sad. So many fraudulent votes have been cast. - trump logic

 

[TexRex]

*sad trombone*

I absolutely love how Twitter is flagging every single one of their tweets at the moment

This.

 

[FuriousDemon]

PA is under 100k difference. Gettin’ there.

 

[Danoff]

PA is under 100k difference. Gettin’ there.

Philidelphia county is reported at 86% of 617,696 total votes leaning Biden (so far) at a rate of 61%. So that looks like a differential of 52k in Biden's favor. Current gap is 97,900 votes, and Trump has many remaining counties as well, Biden has others too. Looks fairly tight.

 

[MatskiMonk]

So, a question for US voters. Does a single ballot paper contain the votes for President as well as Senate etc. etc.? In other words, if you were submitting fraudulent ballots for President, could you, using the same piece of paper, submit fraudulent votes for Senate, or other such things?

 

[FuriousDemon]

Philidelphia county is reported at 86% of 617,696 total votes leaning Biden (so far) at a rate of 61%. So that looks like a differential of 52k in Biden's favor. Current gap is 97,900 votes, and Trump has many remaining counties as well, Biden has others too. Looks fairly tight.

Delaware county is 61% Biden.

Philly is at a rate of 80% Biden, so another 75k.

 

[huskeR32]

So, a question for US voters. Does a single ballot paper contain the votes for President as well as Senate etc. etc.? In other words, if you were submitting fraudulent ballots for President, could you, using the same piece of paper, submit fraudulent votes for Senate, or other such things?

Yes, everything you're voting on, from president all the way down to local city-level initiatives, is on the same ballot.

I guess I should put a disclaimer that I've only ever voted in one state, so maybe other states have multiple ballots? But I've never heard of that if it's the case.

So, yes, if one was intending to commit voting fraud, they'd be doing so for every election at once.

 

[Tornado]

So, a question for US voters. Does a single ballot paper contain the votes for President as well as Senate etc. etc.? In other words, if you were submitting fraudulent ballots for President, could you, using the same piece of paper, submit fraudulent votes for Senate, or other such things?

Yes. In New York ballots also contain all of the local and state elections. California commonly adds legislative propositions as well.

 

[Joey D]

So, a question for US voters. Does a single ballot paper contain the votes for President as well as Senate etc. etc.? In other words, if you were submitting fraudulent ballots for President, could you, using the same piece of paper, submit fraudulent votes for Senate, or other such things?

Some states don't even use paper. When I voted in person here in Utah I used a touch screen thing that was like a tablet.

 

[Danoff]

Delaware county is 61% Biden.

Philly is at a rate of 80% Biden, so another 75k.

Deleware county has reported 85% of its vote already out of a total of 294,896. Biden holds a margin of 24%. I take this to mean (based on quick checking on the NYT website) that this means that Biden's lead is 24% of the vote. So whatever trump gets, biden gets more by 24% of the total. So Deleware county (if the trend continued) would offer Biden 10,616 above what it offers trump (going forward). Trump has some counties that he'll lead also, which are not fully counted.

I dunno, PA looks close. Delware county biden lead accounts for the remainder for trump in like... Cumberland, Crawford, Bliar, and mercer basically.