The GTP Unofficial 2020 US Elections Thread

[TB]

Biden is down 12,835. With 47,277 ballots left, maintaining proportions, Biden "should" get 34,325 to Trump's 12,952 giving them a total of 2,457,933 and 2,449,395, a difference of 8,538.

So the projected Trump victory is by a margin of 8,500 votes.

Now if only one of us was a Trump supporter (*) we could argue why the other is clearly wrong. Instead, I'll assume you are while hoping I am.

*1, 2, 3, NOT IT!

 

[FuriousDemon]

Deleware county has reported 85% of its vote already out of a total of 294,896. Biden holds a margin of 24%. I take this to mean (based on quick checking on the NYT website) that this means that Biden's lead is 24% of the vote. So whatever trump gets, biden gets more by 24% of the total. So Deleware county (if the trend continued) would offer Biden 10,616 above what it offers trump (going forward). Trump has some counties that he'll lead also, which are not fully counted.

I dunno, PA looks close.

Margin of 24 = 61.5 - 37.5, Philly 80-19 =61. So Biden actually gets 60% of votes in Delaware county and 80% of the votes in Philly...so far

 

[Jezza819]

So, a question for US voters. Does a single ballot paper contain the votes for President as well as Senate etc. etc.? In other words, if you were submitting fraudulent ballots for President, could you, using the same piece of paper, submit fraudulent votes for Senate, or other such things?

Alabama is also all on one sheet of paper.

 

[TB]

we could argue why the other is clearly wrong.

That reminds me of a shower thought I had this morning.

If, despite being virtually impossible, the tables were turned, Biden was leading early because they counted all the mail-in votes first then Trump started slowly picking off states, I truly believe we'd be thinking "that's exactly how this is supposed to work - count all the votes then reach a conclusion" instead of "we were winning, what the 🤬 happened?" and going on a sue everything that moves rampage.

For the life of me I can't wrap my head around how the Republican (or maybe I should pair it down to hardcore Trump supporters?) brain works.

 

[Danoff]

Margin of 24 = 61.5 - 37.5, Philly 80-19 =61. So Biden actually gets 60% of votes in Delaware county and 80% of the votes in Philly...so far

Yea, 80% of the votes in Philly is a margin of 60%. 20% goes to each candidate, and then the gap is closed by 60% of the vote.

 

[Joey D]

For the life of me I can't wrap my head around how the Republican (or maybe I should pair it down to hardcore Trump supporters?) brain works.

Bold of you to assume they work in the first place.

 

[Tornado]

I don't think the mail-in votes are following the county trends to this point. On CNN one of the guys said this morning that they were approaching 9:1 or more in some areas. I assume that means Philly, but Erie County wasn't anywhere near as close yesterday for example.

 

[Danoff]

Now if only one of us was a Trump supporter (*) we could argue why the other is clearly wrong. Instead, I'll assume you are while hoping I am.

*1, 2, 3, NOT IT!

I think, I hope, that your method is more accurate than mine. But I can see problems with it. Yours has the potential to take into account late statistics which are not consistent with earlier results. Mine doesn't do that. On the otherhand, yours has no idea what counties are still reporting, mine does.

I can only hope you're right, because I'm starting to think Trump takes PA and GA.

I don't think the mail-in votes are following the county trends to this point. On CNN one of the guys said this morning that they were approaching 9:1 or more in some areas. I assume that means Philly, but Erie County wasn't anywhere near as close yesterday for example.

Yea I can only hope this is the case.

 

[Touring Mars]

Going by RealClearPolitics current numbers, it looks like Biden should get Nevada and Arizona, and Trump pretty much gets everything else. According to their numbers, that would put Biden on 270 and Trump on 268. Ooft.

Kind of crazy that it can be so close when there is 3.5 million votes (ca. 2.5%) in Biden's favour.

-

It shouldn't surprise me, but it is still quite staggering to see how gullible people can be when it comes to listen to Trump.

Trump has very intentionally conflated the otherwise totally separate concepts of late vote counting and late voting - yet Trump's more avid fans are falling for Trump's idiotic rhetoric that implies that they are the same thing.

 

[FuriousDemon]

Going by RealClearPolitics current numbers, it looks like Biden should get Nevada and Arizona, and Trump pretty much gets everything else. According to their numbers, that would put Biden on 270 and Trump on 268. Ooft.

-

It shouldn't surprise me, but it is still quite staggering to see how gullible people can be when it comes to listen to Trump.

Trump has very intentionally conflated the otherwise totally separate concepts of late vote counting and late voting - yet Trump's more avid fans are falling for Trump's idiotic rhetoric that implies that they are the same thing.

That’s why early counting of mail in vote was disallowed in many places. Makes it seem like “they are finding Biden votes” out of the blue this way.

 

[FuriousDemon]

One thing to note about PA. Current votes are what they are, but most places voted more democratic in 2016 election and given the fact that third party vote is way down and Biden is more popular than Clinton, we can assume that remaining votes will favor Biden at higher than current vote split. Pittsburg still has 6% to count as well as a big one.

 

[TB]

That’s why early counting of mail in vote was disallowed in many places. Makes it seem like “they are finding Biden votes” out of the blue this way.

No, some states have had a law in place that mail in ballots can't be counted ahead of time. Historically, that hasn't been a problem but with the massive amount of mail in votes this year, that part of the process is taking longer than usual.

There is no "disallowing" or "finding Biden votes" going on.

 

[eiriksmil]

Bold of you to assume they work in the first place.

Was about to say this. They seem to work in a short-circuiting kind of way.

 

[FuriousDemon]

No, some states have had a law in place that mail in ballots can't be counted ahead of time. Historically, that hasn't been a problem but with the massive amount of mail in votes this year, that part of the process is taking longer than usual.

There is no "disallowing" or "finding Biden votes" going on.

That’s good to know. See, almost created a bit of “fake news” there. Easy to do without even trying.

 

[Crash]

Current blue county ballot ratios for Biden will have to dramatically shift for Trump to take Nevada.

 

[FuriousDemon]

Current blue county ballot ratios for Biden will have to dramatically shift for Trump to take Nevada.

Yup, and Clark was more democratic than the current results in 2016. Biden has been generally getting more votes than Clinton, so chances are he’ll beat those numbers here as well.

 

[ROAD_DOGG33J]

I don't think your math is adding up. As of 38 minutes ago, NYT reported that GA had over 47,000 votes left to count. Your county percentage projections make sense but they show that Biden will get more than 50% of the combined share. Biden only needs 28% of 47,000 to break even. If you used the current "remaining" percentages displayed, then those percentages are wrong according to the actual reported number remaining.

What do you mean by 28%? Not sure how that works if biden is behind.

 

[Danoff]

GA margin is down to 9.5k (disagreement on whether that's 98% or 100% reporting).

Looks like it's 98%, those votes were from Fulton, which was basically done but still had a little to give.

Conservatively, it seems like the remainder in GA should at least cut that 9.5k in half.

Edit:

Holy hell, Biden might actually get GA (by the narrowest of margins).

 

[Keef]

What do you mean by 28%? Not sure how that works if biden is behind.

Apparently I was only doing “catch up” math. Biden needed 28% of the remaining votes to equal Trump’s number, but then he also needed whatever Trump would potentially get to remain equal. Trump won’t get much though so I’m still going with @TB’s math.

I just thought of another interesting point about the popular vote.

if Biden does certify an 8 million vote lead, that would equal an entire other state in between WA and VA, or 12-13 electoral votes. And it’s not just “another state”, it’s an above average state - the average electoral votes per state is only 10.7.

Now tell me democracy is working when Biden could potentially win an entire extra above-average state and still lose the electoral college election.

 

[ROAD_DOGG33J]

90,000 gap in PA now. Arizona is crawling along.

 

[Famine]

I've been occasionally looking in at Pennsylvania over the last two days...

Trump Lead - Percentage votes counted
423,160
319,400
246,851
211,085
207,365 - 88
164,414 - 89
142,466 - 89
135,726 - 91
132,611 - 91
121,857 - 92
116,224 - 92
115,162 - 92
114,011 - 92
111,371 - 92
108,872 - 92
106,980 - 92
97,900 - 92
90,502 - 93

Edit: Crikey, Georgia's down to 9,600.

 

[TexRex]

Now tell me democracy is working when Biden could potentially win an entire extra above-average state and still lose the electoral college election.

The Electoral College and democracy don't go together. Like gerrymandering, the EC exists to marginalize votes.

 

[ROAD_DOGG33J]

 

[Danoff]

GA margin is down to 9.5k (disagreement on whether that's 98% or 100% reporting).

Looks like it's 98%, those votes were from Fulton, which was basically done but still had a little to give.

Conservatively, it seems like the remainder in GA should at least cut that 9.5k in half.

Edit:

Holy hell, Biden might actually get GA (by the narrowest of margins).

Ok screw it, I wasn't getting any work done anyway. Let me see here....

Forsythe would give Trump a 1.3k advantage (if trends continue)
Floyd would give Trump a 1.9k advantage (if trends continue).

Clayton offers 3.7k Biden advantage (if trends continue)
Chatham offers 2.5k Biden advantage (if trends continue)

So if everything in GA just played out according to existing totals, we'd see a final tally of 6.5k win for Trump. But what percentage would Biden have to take the remaining vote in those counties to tie the 9.5k gap? 67%

That's legit possible.

 

[Blitz24]

The Electoral College and democracy don't go together. Like gerrymandering, the EC exists to marginalize votes.

I understand WHY it was implemented, but there is no way to utilize it. In the current position, unless you vote blue, your red vote is worthless for president in Minnesota (only in 1972 did it go red). Likewise, since @TB voted for Lyndon B. Johnson, his (hypothetical) blue vote has been worthless for president in North Dakota.

 

[Jezza819]

I've been occasionally looking in at Pennsylvania over the last two days...

Trump Lead - Percentage votes counted
423,160
319,400
246,851
211,085
207,365 - 88
164,414 - 89
142,466 - 89
135,726 - 91
132,611 - 91
121,857 - 92
116,224 - 92
115,162 - 92
114,011 - 92
111,371 - 92
108,872 - 92
106,980 - 92
97,900 - 92
90,502 - 93

Edit: Crikey, Georgia's down to 9,600.

Trumps early leads



And hopefully at the end....
***LANGUAGE WARNING***

 

[Vspectra]

Biden might just take GA by a hair too.

 

[Eunos_Cosmo]

I understand WHY it was implemented, but there is no way to utilize it. In the current position, unless you vote blue, your red vote is worthless for president in Minnesota (only in 1972 did it go red). Likewise, since @TB voted for Lyndon B. Johnson, his (hypothetical) blue vote has been worthless for president in North Dakota.

It heavily benefits areas of low population density. Ergo, conservatives want to keep it.

 

[ROAD_DOGG33J]

According to an article on the NYPost, Arizona is predicting on finishing its count tomorrow.

 

[Danoff]

Nevada looks pretty solid.

"Michael Gold, in New York 53m ago
Nevada has about 190,000 ballots still to be counted, the secretary of state said. Ninety percent of them are from Clark County, where Biden currently leads by 8 percentage points. "