The war on ISIS.

[Dennisch]

Undoubtedly a capable, well equipped and strong army. But why so reluctant to defend a buffer space outside of their borders?

Because you're basically invading a foreign country.

 

[F1jocker12]

Israel has so much power we pay them not to use it.

What video game is that? 50 shades of grey?

 

[Joel]

I'm actually kind of afraid because in a worst case scenario, ISIS will invade Europe through the Mediterranean or through Turkey, and the whole world will explode. It's not about victory or loss at that point-- it's about how many people are thoughtlessly killed and caught in the crossfire. A conflict of that sort would also displace many, many people who have nowhere to go after being pushed out of their homes. It's already gone far enough.

No, the worst case scenario is ISIS invades Europe, then dominates Europe and branches out from there to invade the Americas and the rest of Asia, followed by world domination.

That doesn't mean it's a remotely possible scenario. ISIS has no way to stage an amphibious landing in Italy, and would get utterly routed the second they engaged the Turkish, Saudi, or Iranian militaries. Any attack on Turkey is an attack on NATO which means the USS George H. W. Bush stationed in the Persian Gulf would be free to unleash its aircraft. It's seriously not a threat at all.

 

[ClydeYellow]

No, the worst case scenario is ISIS invades Europe, then dominates Europe and branches out from there to invade the Americas and the rest of Asia, followed by world domination.

No, followed by GALACTIC domination. Cue Asaris in burqas.

I mean no offense (the snark may indicate otherwise, but don't let it fool you) but usually when people talk about the worst case scenario they are talking about a scenario that is still in the realm of possibility. And as you said, the idea of Al-Baghdadi's ragtag army making it across the Mediterrean is already quite outlandish.

The actual worst case scenario is that the ISIL gets a couple of Scud missiles and tries to replicate the attempts of Gheddafi at bombing Lampedusa; only this time not aiming at American bases, but at the general population of the island. This time they hit the island, killing some civilians.

As a result we (Italy) would have to ask our NATO allies to help us answer to an aggression on our soil. Cue the absolute curb-stomping of the ISIL by a coalition that is forced to intervene by international mutual defense treaties. Of course the ISIL could still go underground and survive, and use more usual tactics (i.e. terror attacks) to achieve some success, but the level of the threat they present would be immensely diminished.

Or, as you already said, they could attack Turkey. Same scenario, in a different place.

 

[Scaff]

But why so reluctant to defend a buffer space outside of their borders?

Because its Kurdish.

 

[ExigeEvan]

Because you're basically invading a foreign country.

A foreign country with no control within it's borders, being dominated by forces that may have artillery pieces and other weapons capable of striking Turkish soil. If there was ever a justification...

 

[Not_A_Guest]

No, the worst case scenario is ISIS invades Europe, then dominates Europe and branches out from there to invade the Americas and the rest of Asia, followed by world domination.

That doesn't mean it's a remotely possible scenario. ISIS has no way to stage an amphibious landing in Italy, and would get utterly routed the second they engaged the Turkish, Saudi, or Iranian militaries. Any attack on Turkey is an attack on NATO which means the USS George H. W. Bush stationed in the Persian Gulf would be free to unleash its aircraft. It's seriously not a threat at all.

Leems segit.

 

[Joel]

No, followed by GALACTIC domination. Cue Asaris in burqas.

I mean no offense (the snark may indicate otherwise, but don't let it fool you) but usually when people talk about the worst case scenario they are talking about a scenario that is still in the realm of possibility. And as you said, the idea of Al-Baghdadi's ragtag army making it across the Mediterrean is already quite outlandish.

It basically is though, the idea of ISIS doing anything resembling invading Italy or going through Turkey to get to Europe is pure fantasy. There's a Nimitz class aircraft carrier stationed just off the shore in the Persian Gulf, any significant movement of troops towards Turkey would be sandwiched between US fighter jets in the gulf, and the entire Turkish military. It would be Highway of Death 2: Electric Boogaloo.

 

[Furinkazen]

I do not mean to downplay the considerable achievements of Kurdish fighters who have started in places in Iraq to push back ISIS, but if they cannot win against them, then against a European military they don't have a 🤬 in hell of even starting such a plan as "invasion".

 

[KSaiyu]

It basically is though, the idea of ISIS doing anything resembling invading Italy or going through Turkey to get to Europe is pure fantasy. There's a Nimitz class aircraft carrier stationed just off the shore in the Persian Gulf, any significant movement of troops towards Turkey would be sandwiched between US fighter jets in the gulf, and the entire Turkish military. It would be Highway of Death 2: Electric Boogaloo.

Think....you can't directly invade so what do you do?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...anning-to-use-Libya-as-gateway-to-Europe.html

 

[Lizard]

Sigh. You actually think they would make an army and invade in a traditional style? How did they form? They would try a similar style.

 

[Not_A_Guest]

Well once they get into Libya (which I think they will) then countries are going to have to work together to seal off any travel from Libya. I think that would work as long as the U.S. has its carriers waiting on the other side of the Mediterranean.

 

[ExigeEvan]

Well once they get into Libya (which I think they will) then countries are going to have to work together to seal off any travel from Libya. I think that would work as long as the U.S. has its carriers waiting on the other side of the Mediterranean.

What is a USN Carrier group going to do against a group of terrorists hidden amongst civilians trying to cross the Med' on dingies and skiffs?

 

[PeterJB]

At best IS will ravage the island of Malta and that'll be it for the Crusades: The Sequel.

 

[Not_A_Guest]

What is a USN Carrier group going to do against a group of terrorists hidden amongst civilians trying to cross the Med' on dingies and skiffs?

That's definitely true. I hope that satellite intel can coordinate with armed forces to stop any travel.

 

[ExigeEvan]

That's definitely true. I hope that satellite intel can coordinate with armed forces to stop any travel.

Stop watching movies. Satellites are not real-time surveillance assets.

There are hundreds of boats full of peaceful immigrants trying to cross the Med' to escape war and poverty in Africa. The EU alone is struggling to stop them as there is no coastal patrol within Libya's waters, and any boats that do make it the 12 miles into international waters are in no way guaranteed to survive the 12 miles back to Libya.

The Italian holding centre is a small island in the Med' and it's already full to several times its designed capacity.

The chances of a hostile boat making a crossing to the Italian mainland is slim, but certainly something I imagine will be tried in the next couple of years.

 

[Dotini]

US State Department dolly says root cause of ISIS must be addressed by giving them jobs.

 

[PeterJB]

The BNP are gonna love that.

 

[Joel]

Think....you can't directly invade so what do you do?

That's why I said invade. Obviously there's a chance of isolated terrorism incidents but that's not an invasion and nothing anywhere close to what was said about ISIS invading Europe through Turkey. Certainly there's a threat in Turkey or Italy of isolated stuff but to actually invade a country like Turkey would require to actually raise an army and attack overtly at which point it would be carved up by Turkish and US fighters and would be hopeless against Turkish armour. Even invading Jordan would a be a suicide mission.

I know there's always a certain skepticism to modern conventional militaries fighting these kinds of groups but that doesn't apply when what's being discussed is a group like this trying to overtly invade another country with a functioning government. It's the same thing as the Gulf War and the Iraq War, the Gulf War was over in days and was a (pardon the pun) turkey shoot. Same with the initial invasion in 2003, over in days and a total rout. The hard part comes afterwards where a conventional military occupies a country and fights against guerrillas.

I'm not trying to be a warhawk here with a freedom boner for F-16's and Abrams tanks but I think ISIS is bad enough without using the word "invasion" which is just not going to happen.

 

[Johnnypenso]

US State Department dolly says root cause of ISIS must be addressed by giving them jobs.

In another interview she said, paraphrasing, "We have to find out why they choose to pick up an Ak-47 instead of starting a business"

The foot soldiers may be mostly comprised of poor boys who couldn't figure out how to start a business or get a job, but it seems the guys a little higher up the chain are much more likely to be educated and well to do. Source What business do we help them start? Interestingly, this trend of the educated and wealthy terrorist is nothing new. From 1999:

Increasingly, terrorist groups are recruiting members with expertise in fields such as communications, computer programming, engineering, finance, and the sciences. Ramzi Yousef graduated from Britain's Swansea University with a degree in engineering. Aum Shinrikyo's Shoko Asahara recruited a scientific team with all the expertise needed to develop WMD. Osama bin Laden also recruits highly skilled professionals in the fields of engineering, medicine, chemistry, physics, computer programming, communications, and so forth. Whereas the skills of the elite terrorist commandos of the 1960s and 1970s were often limited to what they learned in training camp, the terrorists of the 1990s who have carried out major operations have included biologists, chemists, computer specialists, engineers, and physicists.

 

[Not_A_Guest]

Stop watching movies. Satellites are not real-time surveillance assets.

There are hundreds of boats full of peaceful immigrants trying to cross the Med' to escape war and poverty in Africa. The EU alone is struggling to stop them as there is no coastal patrol within Libya's waters, and any boats that do make it the 12 miles into international waters are in no way guaranteed to survive the 12 miles back to Libya.

The Italian holding centre is a small island in the Med' and it's already full to several times its designed capacity.

The chances of a hostile boat making a crossing to the Italian mainland is slim, but certainly something I imagine will be tried in the next couple of years.

But I like movies Ha, joking.

Yes, I already know about the immigrants. It's bad for the immigrants hoping for a new life but I hope all those Mediterranean countries and their armed forces will simply keep the boats off their shores for fear of ISIS.

 

[Joel]

But I like movies Ha, joking.

Yes, I already know about the immigrants. It's bad for the immigrants hoping for a new life but I hope all those Mediterranean countries and their armed forces will simply keep the boats off their shores for fear of ISIS.

It's not that simple, they're usually on rickety small rafts and dinghies that are falling apart by the time they reach Italy, they can't really just turn them back where they came from unless Italy is OK with being known for sending ships of hundreds of refugees away that sink a few hours later in international waters. Even if we could send the ships back I don't think it's the right thing to do, most of these people are honest refugees trying to escape from hell on earth in Syria.

 

[KSaiyu]

It's not that simple, they're usually on rickety small rafts and dinghies that are falling apart by the time they reach Italy, they can't really just turn them back where they came from unless Italy is OK with being known for sending ships of hundreds of refugees away that sink a few hours later in international waters. Even if we could send the ships back I don't think it's the right thing to do, most of these people are honest refugees trying to escape from hell on earth in Syria.

What is the alternative. Are you going to vet every single refugee and personally guarantee they aren't an ISIS member/sympathizer/future terrorist?

 

[Joel]

What is the alternative. Are you going to vet every single refugee and personally guarantee they aren't an ISIS member/sympathizer/future terrorist?

Are you going to turn people away in rickety boats that will sink in the middle of the Mediterranean?

 

[KSaiyu]

Are you going to turn people away in rickety boats that will sink in the middle of the Mediterranean?

Yes.

Now it sucks that the region can't get out of it's backwards mentality but you don't sacrifice the security of millions because your conscience can't take it.

 

[ClydeYellow]

<...>they can't really just turn them back where they came from unless Italy is OK with being known for sending ships of hundreds of refugees away that sink a few hours later in international waters.

Ah, but alas a significant portion of the Italian public is perfectly fine with that.

What is the alternative. Are you going to vet every single refugee and personally guarantee they aren't an ISIS member/sympathizer/future terrorist?

We take the risk that there may be ISIS members onboard. So far, attacks in Europe by ISIS sympathizers have killed 18 - on the other hand, in one day, more than 900 boat people were rescued. In 2008 Italy rescued 36,000 people; that was, if memory serves correctly, before the Arab Spring started, back when the ISIS was one of many minuscule groups of fanatics. If your conscience can take being an accomplice in murderer on a scale that's almost genocidal... It speaks a lot about your character.

As for future terrorists, they are not a problem. You may become a criminal one day too, after all. Everybody could, with the right motivation.

P.S: it sucks than when these nations were coming out your country's colonial rule and getting rid of their "backwards mentality", your country made sure they didn't by financing coup-d'etats in the Middle East if not bombing them. Deny a people their freedom to self-determinate long enough, and they will start acting like savages. Not much of a surprise here.

 

[ExigeEvan]

Yes.

Now it sucks that the region can't get out of it's backwards mentality but you don't sacrifice the security of millions because your conscience can't take it.

Millions? What's the typical death count from a Terrorist attack? Dozens? Maybe hundreds? In rare occasion, thousands?

Each dinghy can have a 100 people in it. Up to Feb 11th it's believed over 400 had drowned since the start of the year.

You do the maths.

 

[Carbonox]

Ah, but alas a significant portion of the Italian public is perfectly fine with that.



We take the risk that there may be ISIS members onboard. So far, attacks in Europe by ISIS sympathizers have killed 18 - on the other hand, in one day, more than 900 boat people were rescued. In 2008 Italy rescued 36,000 people; that was, if memory serves correctly, before the Arab Spring started, back when the ISIS was one of many minuscule groups of fanatics. If your conscience can take being an accomplice in murderer on a scale that's almost genocidal... It speaks a lot about your character.

As for future terrorists, they are not a problem. You may become a criminal one day too, after all. Everybody could, with the right motivation.

P.S: it sucks than when these nations were coming out your country's colonial rule and getting rid of their "backwards mentality", your country made sure they didn't by financing coup-d'etats in the Middle East if not bombing them. Deny a people their freedom to self-determinate long enough, and they will start acting like savages. Not much of a surprise here.

It's funny that you act as a moral superior, when in reality attitudes like yours only serve to increase the body count. As someone who wishes to rescue anyone they can find on the seas, you're making the option of taking a dinghy to Europe more attractive for future refugees as well, even though it's an extremely foolish and dangerous path, and will continue to result in fatalities as long as it continues to happen. Not to mention it's illegal as hell, as this is human traffickers we're dealing with here. Not the kind of people whose livelihood any sane person would like to support.

 

[KSaiyu]

Millions? What's the typical death count from a Terrorist attack? Dozens? Maybe hundreds? In rare occasion, thousands?

Each dinghy can have a 100 people in it. Up to Feb 11th it's believed over 400 had drowned since the start of the year.

You do the maths.

Yes millions, via long term instability. You didn't actually think I meant millions from the few that do manage to come across did you...?

Please look up the recent Rotherham sex gang scandals for a recent example.

It speaks a lot about your character...

I really wouldn't go there..

 

[ExigeEvan]

Yes millions, via long term instability. You didn't actually think I meant millions from the few that do manage to come across did you...?

Please look up the recent Rotherham sex gang scandals for a recent example..

Please elaborate. Because I imagine at this point you've got a tin foil hat and a clove of garlic.