Here's a complete over analysis of the final 10 laps from the top 4.
Setting the stage: After all pits stops were complete and going into the final 10 laps Speedy was in the lead by a decent margin with tires that were starting to show wear after 10 laps of pushing since his pit. Kevin also was on a one stop strategy and pitted on lap 20 with Speedy, but was managing tire wear and not pushing as hard which allowed Speedy to build up the gap. CSL and I pitted on lap 28 and 27 respectively with our two pit strategy and we were set up to push hard to the finish.
30-34: Speedy maintained the lead through this part of the race, but the rest of us were steadily gaining on him with our better tires. As his lap times dipped into the 1:41 range CSL and I were able to drop 2 seconds per lap. Kevin caught Speedy on lap 34 and that allowed the rest of us to close significantly on that lap. I'd say this was the key lap in the race for me as it allowed me to get into their slipstream before the end of the race
35-38: Kevin took the lead, but Speedy battled him for 3 of the four laps allowing me to close the gap an additional 7 seconds and close on their bumper. CSL had closed the gap to 7 seconds by the end of this stage, but time was running out for him to catch the draft.
39-40: I caught Speedy and Kevin fairly early on Lap 38, but I wanted to take my time getting past as I knew my tires were much fresher and I didn't want to risk making a mistake and letting one of the two get away. Speedy went long on the chicane on lap 39 allowing me to split them and then I was able to draft Kevin on the straight and pass with little risk before turn 1. Once out in front I knew there was no way they could keep up in the technical sectors given the difference in tire condition. CSL had to battle past Speedy on the final lap which kept him from closing any further on Kevin or I.
For myself the key of the race was pushing to the edge on laps 30-34 (38.9, 39.2, 39.1, 38.9, 39.6) during the stint that Speedy was leading and then gaining a big chunk on lap 34 when Speedy and Kevin began to battle. Pushing here also enabled me to maintain the gap to CSL as through this entire stint I didn't lose any time to him. In the previous stint before pits CSL was killing me by 1.5 secs per lap and I had to bear down to prevent an EU repeat when Biffy left me in the dust and Wes easily hunted me down from behind.
If Speedy had let EDK by or they had worked together until the final lap they might have been able to hold me off and battle for first between them. Psychologically it was a big boost seeing that much come off the split as well and enabled me to hold off the loss of concentration errors that plagued me at the end of the EU race. Had I run the same times anyway without the psychological boost it would have been very close. By my calculations I was gaining 1.5 seconds per lap which would have had all three of us intersect on the final lap. That 1:45 on lap 34 allowed me to catch the leaders two laps earlier and pass without risking a mistake.
PS> I didn't have a single Lefty sighting in the race. That has to be a first for a 3D3 event for me.
PPS> Marc would have been in the middle of the top 4 scrum had Kaz allowed him to continue in the race. 👎 Of course Welsh-Bain probably would have walked and this would have been a less exciting battle for 2nd had a "nicely" timed phone call not caused him to pull over.
PPPS> And then there's Cats_Pajamas running quali on hard tires and then the race on rain tires.
You can't blame PD for that one.