An apology to all future generations: Sorry we used up your oil...

  • Thread starter Zardoz
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The Energy Bulletin site ran posted a story today, written by a Lt. Colonel in the Air Force, that was run last September by the "Joint Force Quarterly".

Joint Force Quarterly is published by the National Defense University Press for the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. JFQ is the Chairman's flagship joint military and security studies journal designed to inform members of the U.S. Armed Forces, allies, and other partners on joint and integrated operations; national security policy and strategy; efforts to combat terrorism; homeland security; and developments in training and joint professional military education to transform America's military and security apparatus to better meet tomorrow's challenges while protecting freedom today.


Here's the JFQ site:

http://www.ndu.edu/inss/Press/NDUPress_JFQ_List.htm


Here's the story on Energy Bulletin:

http://www.energybulletin.net/13461.html


And here's the original PDF version of the story:

http://www.ndu.edu/inss/Press/jfq_pages/editions/i39/i39_essaywin_04.pdf


Some quotes:

"The current world energy situation poses a national threat unparalleled in 225 years."

"Dependence on imported oil, particularly from the Middle East, has become the elephant in the foreign policy living room, an overriding strategic consideration composed of a multitude of issues."

"Current energy strategy assumes that this country can meet its oil needs by managing the oil-producing countries diplomatically and militarily. However, this thinking overestimates the available oil supply, ignores growing instability in the oil-producing countries, and understates the military costs of preserving access."


Somebody needs to read this story to our president...
 
danoff
No such luck. The more the gas prices go up, the faster the value of these cars will plummet. But gasoline is a tiny fraction of the cost of ferrari ownership - and so gasoline prices are not likely to affect the folks who own exotics any time soon. The rest of us will have long abandoned out gass guzzlers in favor of more efficient transportation before people actually let gasoline affect whether they get that exotic car.
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Why? - the price of petrol in the UK is very high, and seems to increase at a greater rate then it does in the US, yet Ferraris and the like still sell well, and we have a very buoyant used market for exotics. The values of F40's have gone up by 20-25% in the past 12 months alone.

The short term (2-20ish years) used value of the larger (V12) Ferraris has always been poor, until they begin to reach 'classic' status when fewer of them are around and their value begins to climb again. Petrol price never has any effect on this market segment for the simple reason that people who can afford to buy, and more importantly, maintain cars like this can afford pump fuel whatever the cost.
 
TheCracker
Why? - the price of petrol in the UK is very high, and seems to increase at a greater rate then it does in the US, yet Ferraris and the like still sell well, and we have a very buoyant used market for exotics. The values of F40's have gone up by 20-25% in the past 12 months alone.

The short term (2-20ish years) used value of the larger (V12) Ferraris has always been poor, until they begin to reach 'classic' status when fewer of them are around and their value begins to climb again. Petrol price never has any effect on this market segment for the simple reason that people who can afford to buy, and more importantly, maintain cars like this can afford pump fuel whatever the cost.
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Yup.
 
The Energy Bulletin site just posted a very sobering U.S. Army Corp of Engineers report:

US Army: Peak Oil and the Army's future

It confirms virtually everything we've been worrying about:

"The days of inexpensive, convenient, abundant energy sources are quickly drawing to a close. Domestic natural gas production peaked in 1973. The proved domestic reserve lifetime for natural gas at current consumption rates is about 8.4 yrs. The proved world reserve lifetime for natural gas is about 40 years, but will follow a traditional rise to a peak and then a rapid decline. Domestic oil production peaked in 1970 and continues to decline. Proved domestic reserve lifetime for oil is about 3.4 yrs. World oil production is at or near its peak and current world demand exceeds the supply. Saudi Arabia is considered the bellwether nation for oil production and has not increased production since April 2003. After peak production, supply no longer meets demand, prices and competition increase. World proved reserve lifetime for oil is about 41 years, most of this at a declining availability. Our current throw-away nuclear cycle will consume the world reserve of low-cost uranium in about 20 years. Unless we dramatically change our consumption practices, the Earth’s finite resources of petroleum and natural gas will become depleted in this century. Coal supplies may last into the next century depending on technology and consumption trends as it starts to replace oil and natural gas.

"We must act now to develop the technology and infrastructure necessary to transition to other energy sources. Policy changes, leap ahead technology breakthroughs, cultural changes, and significant investment is requisite for this new energy future. Time is essential to enact these changes. The process should begin now."

You can save the 86-page PDF file directly from this military site. Give it a minute to open up:

http://handle.dtic.mil/100.2/ADA440265

Read the Executive Summary and Section 9 (General Conclusions and Implications) and you'll get the full gist of it.

The report, Energy Trends and Their Implications for U.S. Army Installations (PDF &ndash 1.2mb), was conducted by the U.S. Army Engineer Research and Development Center (ERDC), U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and is dated September 2005.

I really don't like that statement that I put in boldface about world oil production being "at or near its peak". Pardon the doom-and-gloom attitude, folks, but this can't be good. I have to say this report bothers me more than anything I've seen yet, and I'm sure you're aware that I've been researching this little subject pretty heavily.
 
This couldn't possibly be a ploy by The Man to garner support for more military action in the Middle East to, er, secure oil reserves (and hey, since we're already there securing our short-term energy needs, let's topple a few regimes while we're at it!)
 
kylehnat
This couldn't possibly be a ploy by The Man to garner support for more military action in the Middle East to, er, secure oil reserves (and hey, since we're already there securing our short-term energy needs, let's topple a few regimes while we're at it!)
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Well, it's dated last September, and until the EB site posted it, a Google search turned up nothing. Within hours of their posting it, that military site popped up with it. That's a bit odd, but who knows?

Anyway, if it was to be used as a PR piece for more "securing", seems like they would've made it public. Personally, I'm thinking it was internally suppressed for some reason, then released when it got out.
 
Actually, if it was officially leaked, then maybe it's way of saying "whatever we do in the Middle East, we're doomed... so let's just pull out"(???)

But it's a very sobering piece, from a very unexpected source. The right-wingers are so pro-war, it's sometimes easy to forget that the Army does not equal the Conservatives. Guess this report illustrates that.

And this should put a rest to people shouting "Nuclear Power! Nuclear Power!" from the sidelines. I've long held the belief that it'd never be cost effective to rely on nuclear fission. If the expected end of easy uranium is within twenty years, it's probably already too late to build new plants.
 
niky
And this should put a rest to people shouting "Nuclear Power! Nuclear Power!" from the sidelines. I've long held the belief that it'd never be cost effective to rely on nuclear fission. If the expected end of easy uranium is within twenty years, it's probably already too late to build new plants.
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Nuclear power has an unjustified bad reputation. After all, France is 90-95% nuclear power, with zero Chernobyl-esque disasters :). I find it hard to believe that "easy" uranium is also starting to disappear, but if it is, we really missed the boat on that one. Nuclear power plants are actually farily cost-effective, and are capable of huge capacities. If only the public would educate itself... :rolleyes:
 
Gas shortage sends U.K. prices soaring

This crap is starting way, way earlier than anybody thought it would.

EDIT -

Welcome to the 21st century:

wholesaleukgasprices8ze.jpg
 
kylehnat
Nuclear power has an unjustified bad reputation. After all, France is 90-95% nuclear power, with zero Chernobyl-esque disasters :). I find it hard to believe that "easy" uranium is also starting to disappear, but if it is, we really missed the boat on that one. Nuclear power plants are actually farily cost-effective, and are capable of huge capacities. If only the public would educate itself... :rolleyes:
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Wouldn't the need for "easy" uranium bring about more disarmament? I mean, how much uranium is in those things?
 
Zardoz
Gas shortage sends U.K. prices soaring

This crap is starting way, way earlier than anybody thought it would.

EDIT -

Welcome to the 21st century:

wholesaleukgasprices8ze.jpg
Click to expand...


Let's see where that price goes in another few months (I'll bet it comes back quite a bit). Also, natural gas is almost completely replaceable with current technology, and the price jump is partially to blame on their storage capability.
 
niky
Actually, if it was officially leaked, then maybe it's way of saying "whatever we do in the Middle East, we're doomed... so let's just pull out"(???)

But it's a very sobering piece, from a very unexpected source. The right-wingers are so pro-war, it's sometimes easy to forget that the Army does not equal the Conservatives. Guess this report illustrates that.

And this should put a rest to people shouting "Nuclear Power! Nuclear Power!" from the sidelines. I've long held the belief that it'd never be cost effective to rely on nuclear fission. If the expected end of easy uranium is within twenty years, it's probably already too late to build new plants.
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Excellent PDF, good find Mr.Z.
bomb.gif


My reading of the document re: nuke power comes to the conclusion that, although world production of uranium has droppped off considerably, there is no supply/demand bottleneck as w/ oil and thusly no endangerment to considered usage.

There are fewer nuclear power stations being erected today and decomissioning is outstripping the curve. If we were to consider a new generation of breeder reactors then we could treat nuclear fuel as a renewable. There is certainly no crisis concerning it's availability and it only takes a credible and strong-willed political force to implement a tight enough programme in this domain for electricty to be a fixture for the foreseeable, which would be nice.
call.gif
 
According to this guy, crude oil is way cheaper than it should be. He says it won't last, though. Read it and weep:

Oil Prepares to Push On

...Maybe not this time, maybe the next, or the one after that but we are going to break over $70 sometime in 2006 and we could end up testing $80, no problem...if we get one more spark then stand back, it’s party time. Not for you of course, you have to pay.
 
In 2006? No. By 2009? Maybe. $110 in the near future? No ****ing way. As the price of economically recoverable oil goes up, other sources start to become economically viable. Farming the tar sands in Alberta is more expensive than pumping it out of Iraqi soil, but guess what!! We're starting to approach the point where oil derived from these sources is about as expensive as "cheap" oil. Canadian tar sand oil could not compete with $30/bbl crude oil. $80/bbl? Now it's a completely different story. These fields WILL be used in the future. When refineries up there come on-line, the supply of oil will suddenly go up very drastically, and prices will fall again. Not a permanent solution by any means, but we are not are not going to be paying $5/gallon for gasoline next year.
 
kylehnat
In 2006? No. By 2009? Maybe. $110 in the near future? No ****ing way...
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Sure hope you're right. Here's a handy place to keep track of what's going on. Just watch the "Nymex Crude Future" price:

Bloomberg Energy Prices

It slipped over $68 yesterday, then retreated. Some are saying $75 by July is a virtual certainty, and that's with no production breakdowns anywhere.

If something happens to interrupt supply, Katy bar the door...
 
That isn't PSed either, I just drove past that sign at 430 earlier today. That's fricking insane! And there were about 20 cars in the lot. What the hell were they thinking? It was only $9.76 at the Speedway down the street.

Anywho, it's 2.75-2.85 here in Dayton, Ohigho. For regular, that is.
 
kylehnat
Zardoz, is this what you see when you close your eyes?
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:lol: :lol: :lol:

Nice work!

(BTW, just bought a new Civic EX 4-door tonight. EPA 40 MPG highway! I'm amazed at how luxurious and well-equipped econoboxes are now.)
 

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