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Afghanistan was the right move at the time. It's funding the regime in Iraq to counter Khomeni that was the big, tactical mistake.
Arab spring uprises Tunisia/Egypt/Libya/Syria
- Thread starter Vince_Fiero
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Afghanistan was the right move at the time. It's funding the regime in Iraq to counter Khomeni that was the big, tactical mistake.
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It was interesting to hear an analyst this morning describe the rebel capture of Gaddafi's compound as 'a victory for democracy'. It sure didn't look like democracy to me. I think they were alluding to the possibility of a democratic regime taking the place of Gaddafi's regime, but that remains a pretty distant possibility right now. Either way, it was violence (underwritten by NATO) that ultimately brought about Gaddafi's removal - and I strongly suspect that violence will remain the key element of whatever is to follow Gaddafi, long before any actual 'democracy' manifests itself.
The same analyst also went on to say that NATO will now be watching events with a greater sense of trepidation, given that rebel 'forces' (such as they are) are now effectively in charge of large swathes of the country, but there's no guarantee that they will behave in a manner that is befitting of international support/sympathies. It also remains to be seen if the rebels really are after the kind of 'free, democratic and inclusive Libya' that David Cameron seems to think they are. I don't doubt for a minute that for many Libyans, this is indeed the case - but the rebel forces seem to be a rather disparate bunch who have already clearly demonstrated the deep divisions among themselves, and it definitely remains to be seen just how 'pro-democracy' they really are.
The same analyst also went on to say that NATO will now be watching events with a greater sense of trepidation, given that rebel 'forces' (such as they are) are now effectively in charge of large swathes of the country, but there's no guarantee that they will behave in a manner that is befitting of international support/sympathies. It also remains to be seen if the rebels really are after the kind of 'free, democratic and inclusive Libya' that David Cameron seems to think they are. I don't doubt for a minute that for many Libyans, this is indeed the case - but the rebel forces seem to be a rather disparate bunch who have already clearly demonstrated the deep divisions among themselves, and it definitely remains to be seen just how 'pro-democracy' they really are.
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But they say that they want to. Why shouldn't we at least humour them if there's a chance they can actually pull it off? We can't exactly write them off as "the devil we know is gone, and now the devil we don't is in control". If democracy is to be restored, assuming that the National Transitional Council will only head down the same path as Qaddafi is only going to draw the process out. And it's probably only going to encourage anti-Western sentiment in Libya.
Dotini
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The fun and easy part is just about over - getting rid of the ancien regime.
Now you have a bunch of self-appointed rebels, the NTC and its disparate gunmen, running around loose with the former state's weaponry trying to figure out how to produce electricity and water, and oh by the way, a new government. If it's to be democracy, what the NTC should do now is resign and replace themselves with elected figures. Without the familiar organs of the secular police state, what we are left with is tribalism, ethnicity and sectarianism, a fetid stew from which to build a democracy. Don't count on it.
The highest hope for Europeans is that the Libyans can put their oil industry back on line before the winter of 2012-2013, and that the former state of Libya doesn't descend into protracted civil war.
Respectfully submitted,
Steve
Now you have a bunch of self-appointed rebels, the NTC and its disparate gunmen, running around loose with the former state's weaponry trying to figure out how to produce electricity and water, and oh by the way, a new government. If it's to be democracy, what the NTC should do now is resign and replace themselves with elected figures. Without the familiar organs of the secular police state, what we are left with is tribalism, ethnicity and sectarianism, a fetid stew from which to build a democracy. Don't count on it.
The highest hope for Europeans is that the Libyans can put their oil industry back on line before the winter of 2012-2013, and that the former state of Libya doesn't descend into protracted civil war.
Respectfully submitted,
Steve
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I did not hear if there is a strong person or group that will take the lead in the National Transitional Council. We already saw in Egypt that it is not that simple, it will not be simple either in Libya.
That strong person or group will give the lead, the removal of the Taliban left a vacuum, lets hope it does not happen here.
P.S.: In my self study of communist regimes, I did see that control and removal of opponents is a rewarding strategy. People went back to the dictators in times they were weak, since there was no alternative.
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He has lots of nasty toys. I think one of the reasosn why the world ignored him until now is because he offered to disarm a while ago. There was no pressure, no negotiations; he just said he was going to disarm. The world applauded, because until then, Libya was branded as a part of the Axis of Evil. A lot of their stockpiles were destroyed, and their nuclear program abandoned.
But, thankfully, Qaddafi hasn't used whatever was left over from the demilitarisation. He's on the run, and the National Transitional Council control 95% of the country. He's no doubt hiding, and wherever he is, he probably doesn't have the capacity to launch chemical weapons. I'm no expert, but based on what we've seen from him, he's not going to. Qaddafi clearly believes that the country is still under his control, and that the uprising is little more than a minor hurdle that he will clear in the very immediate future. He's calling on his supporters to rise up and fend off the NTC, and so launching chemical weapons would kill them both. And without that support, he has no legitimacy.
But, thankfully, Qaddafi hasn't used whatever was left over from the demilitarisation. He's on the run, and the National Transitional Council control 95% of the country. He's no doubt hiding, and wherever he is, he probably doesn't have the capacity to launch chemical weapons. I'm no expert, but based on what we've seen from him, he's not going to. Qaddafi clearly believes that the country is still under his control, and that the uprising is little more than a minor hurdle that he will clear in the very immediate future. He's calling on his supporters to rise up and fend off the NTC, and so launching chemical weapons would kill them both. And without that support, he has no legitimacy.
Dotini
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Ron Paul's statement on Libya and Syria:
http://original.antiwar.com/paul/2011/08/29/mission-accomplished-in-libya/
Mission Accomplished in Libya?
by Rep. Ron Paul, August 30, 2011
Even as a major hurricane hit Americas eastern seaboard, the administration was determined to expand the war in Libya while threatening the regime in Syria. Is there any limit to governments appetite to create more problems for our nation and economy?
Americans may be tempted to celebrate the apparent victory of U.S.- and NATO-backed rebels in Libya, since it seems the Gadhafi regime is overthrown. But I believe any enthusiasm for our Libyan misadventure is premature.
The Obama administration attacked Libya without a constitutional declaration of war, without congressional authorization, without meaningful consultation with Congress and without a dollar being authorized from the House or Senate. It was a war started by a president who turned to the United Nations for its authority and ignored the authority of the U.S. Congress.
Are we better off as a nation by ignoring and debasing our Constitution? Are we better off having spent more than a billion dollars attacking a country thousands of miles away that had not threatened us? Are we more financially sound having expanded the empire to include yet another protectorate and probable long-term military occupation? Are we more admired throughout the world for getting involved in yet another war?
Still, many will claim that getting rid of Libyan ruler Gadhafi was worth it. They will say that the ends justify the means. As the civilian toll from NATO bombs adds up in a war started under the guise of protecting a civilian population, even the initial argument for intervention is ridiculous. We should not forget that there were no massacres taking place in Libya before the NATO attack. The attack was dubbed a preventive humanitarian intervention. But as soon as NATO planes started bombing, civilians started dying.
Gadhafi may well have been a tyrant, but as such he was no worse than many others whom we support and count as allies. Disturbingly, we see a pattern of relatively secular leaders in the Arab world being targeted for regime-change with the resulting power vacuum being filled by much more radical elements. Iraq, post-Saddam, is certainly far closer to Iran than it was before the U.S. invasion. Will Libya be any different?
We already see grisly reprisals from the U.S.-backed rebels against their political opponents. There are disturbing scenes of looting and lawlessness on the part of the rebels. We know that some rebel factions appear to be allied with Islamic extremists, and others seem to have ties to the CIA. They also appear to have a penchant for killing each other as well as supporters of the previous regime. The tribal structure of Libyan society all but ensures that an ongoing civil war is on the agenda rather than the Swiss-style democracy that some intervention advocates suggest is around the corner.
What is next after such a victory? With the big Western scramble to grab Libyas oil reserves amid domestic political chaos and violence, does anyone doubt that NATO ground troops are not being prepared for yet another occupation?
Neoconservatives continue to dominate our foreign policy, regardless of the administration in power. They do not care that we are bankrupt, as they are too blinded by their desire for empire and their affection for the entangling alliances we have been rightly counseled to avoid. They have set their sights next on Syria, where the U.S. moves steadily toward intervention in another domestic conflict that has nothing to do with the U.S. Already the U.S. president has called for regime-change in Syria, while adding new sanctions against the Syrian regime. Are U.S. bombers far behind?
http://original.antiwar.com/paul/2011/08/29/mission-accomplished-in-libya/
Mission Accomplished in Libya?
by Rep. Ron Paul, August 30, 2011
Even as a major hurricane hit Americas eastern seaboard, the administration was determined to expand the war in Libya while threatening the regime in Syria. Is there any limit to governments appetite to create more problems for our nation and economy?
Americans may be tempted to celebrate the apparent victory of U.S.- and NATO-backed rebels in Libya, since it seems the Gadhafi regime is overthrown. But I believe any enthusiasm for our Libyan misadventure is premature.
The Obama administration attacked Libya without a constitutional declaration of war, without congressional authorization, without meaningful consultation with Congress and without a dollar being authorized from the House or Senate. It was a war started by a president who turned to the United Nations for its authority and ignored the authority of the U.S. Congress.
Are we better off as a nation by ignoring and debasing our Constitution? Are we better off having spent more than a billion dollars attacking a country thousands of miles away that had not threatened us? Are we more financially sound having expanded the empire to include yet another protectorate and probable long-term military occupation? Are we more admired throughout the world for getting involved in yet another war?
Still, many will claim that getting rid of Libyan ruler Gadhafi was worth it. They will say that the ends justify the means. As the civilian toll from NATO bombs adds up in a war started under the guise of protecting a civilian population, even the initial argument for intervention is ridiculous. We should not forget that there were no massacres taking place in Libya before the NATO attack. The attack was dubbed a preventive humanitarian intervention. But as soon as NATO planes started bombing, civilians started dying.
Gadhafi may well have been a tyrant, but as such he was no worse than many others whom we support and count as allies. Disturbingly, we see a pattern of relatively secular leaders in the Arab world being targeted for regime-change with the resulting power vacuum being filled by much more radical elements. Iraq, post-Saddam, is certainly far closer to Iran than it was before the U.S. invasion. Will Libya be any different?
We already see grisly reprisals from the U.S.-backed rebels against their political opponents. There are disturbing scenes of looting and lawlessness on the part of the rebels. We know that some rebel factions appear to be allied with Islamic extremists, and others seem to have ties to the CIA. They also appear to have a penchant for killing each other as well as supporters of the previous regime. The tribal structure of Libyan society all but ensures that an ongoing civil war is on the agenda rather than the Swiss-style democracy that some intervention advocates suggest is around the corner.
What is next after such a victory? With the big Western scramble to grab Libyas oil reserves amid domestic political chaos and violence, does anyone doubt that NATO ground troops are not being prepared for yet another occupation?
Neoconservatives continue to dominate our foreign policy, regardless of the administration in power. They do not care that we are bankrupt, as they are too blinded by their desire for empire and their affection for the entangling alliances we have been rightly counseled to avoid. They have set their sights next on Syria, where the U.S. moves steadily toward intervention in another domestic conflict that has nothing to do with the U.S. Already the U.S. president has called for regime-change in Syria, while adding new sanctions against the Syrian regime. Are U.S. bombers far behind?
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It seems to have lost credibility at this stage.
Dotini
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I find it amusing that we are now reported to be supporting some of the very same people we used to torture and kill. On the surface this might seem inconsistent. But viewed historically, aren't we really on the same steady path of "might makes right" and "the ends justify the means", as championed by Sun Tzu and Machiavelli?
http://news.antiwar.com/2011/09/03/cia-cooperated-with-gadhafi-on-torture-and-renditions/
The Central Intelligence Agency rendered terrorism suspects to Muammar Gadhafis Libya, knowing they would be tortured, according to documents uncovered in Tripoli.
The documents were found by the Human Rights Watch in the abandoned offices of Libyas former spy chief and foreign minister, Moussa Koussa, a notorious figure known for repressing Libyan dissidents.
One of those rendered and tortured, Abdel Hakim Belhadj, is now the military commander in Tripoli for the rebels Transitional National Council. He was captured by the CIA in Asia and put on a secret flight back to Libya where he was interrogated and tortured by the Libyan security services, Human Rights Watchs Peter Bouckaert told Reuters.
Belhadji claims he was tortured by the CIA, and then tortured again at Tripolis notorious Abu Salim prison after rendition. He is also reportedly a former member of al Qaeda. That he is now part of a provisional government supported by the US indicates a stark inconsistency in American foreign policy.
http://news.antiwar.com/2011/09/03/cia-cooperated-with-gadhafi-on-torture-and-renditions/
The Central Intelligence Agency rendered terrorism suspects to Muammar Gadhafis Libya, knowing they would be tortured, according to documents uncovered in Tripoli.
The documents were found by the Human Rights Watch in the abandoned offices of Libyas former spy chief and foreign minister, Moussa Koussa, a notorious figure known for repressing Libyan dissidents.
One of those rendered and tortured, Abdel Hakim Belhadj, is now the military commander in Tripoli for the rebels Transitional National Council. He was captured by the CIA in Asia and put on a secret flight back to Libya where he was interrogated and tortured by the Libyan security services, Human Rights Watchs Peter Bouckaert told Reuters.
Belhadji claims he was tortured by the CIA, and then tortured again at Tripolis notorious Abu Salim prison after rendition. He is also reportedly a former member of al Qaeda. That he is now part of a provisional government supported by the US indicates a stark inconsistency in American foreign policy.
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This always happens in these cases - the lesser of two evils is decided upon and that evil becomes good. It reminds me a lot of Nineteen Eighty-Four where history is re-written to suit what is currently happening (the most noticeable of which being when Ociana switches sides in the ongoing war, history is altered to show that they ahve always been on that side). coughcoughTallibancough...
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The news here is stating things like:
* Egypt is worse off then before the revolution, the army has increased their terror, ...
* There is no real democracy coming in place after the revolutions ...
Not unexpected, but still sad.
* Egypt is worse off then before the revolution, the army has increased their terror, ...
* There is no real democracy coming in place after the revolutions ...
Not unexpected, but still sad.
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Gaddafi captured and according to some sources shot dead.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-15385955
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2011/10/20/501364/main20123030.shtml?tag=cbsContent;cbsCarousel
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-15385955
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2011/10/20/501364/main20123030.shtml?tag=cbsContent;cbsCarousel
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Information is still sketchy but pictures and video's are coming in of celebration in sirte and people saying that gadaffi is dead.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-15385955
GRAPHIC IMAGE WARNING, here is a supposed picture of him.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-15385955
GRAPHIC IMAGE WARNING, here is a supposed picture of him.
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RTSolvalou
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Democracies, Democracies!, Get 'em while they're hot.
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It remains to be confirmed, but if true, then all I can say is ... good. Though I would have preferred him to stand trial, the world is a better place for it. At least the NTC appared to have tried to capture him alive.
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arora
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Tunisia had its first "free" elections, government negotiations are ongoing.
Not surprisingly Muslim and Left wing parties are negotiating.
Not surprisingly Muslim and Left wing parties are negotiating.
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Sadly the successful examples are at this stage:
Egypt unrest: Military apologises for protest deaths
Libyan government holding 7,000 prisoners, UN says
Egypt unrest: Military apologises for protest deaths
Libyan government holding 7,000 prisoners, UN says
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Saudi Arabia: Protesters and reformists targeted in name of security
Some people won a battle and are still struggling, some seem to have lost.
Some people won a battle and are still struggling, some seem to have lost.
Dotini
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Great post.
Peaceful protest is now a terror crime in Saudi Arabia. Neither the US nor anyone else can say "boo" about this dictatorial repression, because the Saudi royalty are the linchpin of global oil production and support US intervention into lesser Arab and Muslim states. Hypocrisy? More like brutal realism.
Respectfully submitted,
Steve
Dotini
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In the recent Parliamentary elections, Islamist parties took the top two positions, with the liberals (youth vote) trailing badly in third at 13%. The military, which is still in charge, now has the opportunity to install an Islamist government?
http://news.antiwar.com/2011/12/04/elbaradei-liberals-decimated-in-election/
Respectfully,
Steve
http://news.antiwar.com/2011/12/04/elbaradei-liberals-decimated-in-election/
Respectfully,
Steve
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I'm not surprised that the "liberal" party lost by a landslide. But, it also doesn't necessarily mean that an "Islamist" style government automatically leads to dictatorship.
The Muslim Brotherhood and other Islamist groups have support due to their public services offered to many down and out Egyptians over the years. They were the most vocally opposed groups against Mubarak too, and that garnered them popularity as well.
I think for the liberal sector of the public they have to show that they will not be the West's lapdog, nor be pushed around by Israel, in order to gain more votes over the years.
The Muslim Brotherhood and other Islamist groups have support due to their public services offered to many down and out Egyptians over the years. They were the most vocally opposed groups against Mubarak too, and that garnered them popularity as well.
I think for the liberal sector of the public they have to show that they will not be the West's lapdog, nor be pushed around by Israel, in order to gain more votes over the years.
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Dotini
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Rival militias are fighting for control in Tripoli, former capitol of the former country of Libya. This is Mad Max-style anarchy, or close to it. Brought to us by the UN.
http://news.antiwar.com/2012/02/01/rival-militias-battle-in-tripoli/
Respectfully submitted,
Steve
http://news.antiwar.com/2012/02/01/rival-militias-battle-in-tripoli/
Respectfully submitted,
Steve
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Evidently, they lied.
Dotini
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The UN is drafting a resolution calling for regime change in Syria. Some think, like in Libya, it could lead to yet another civil war.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-16804475
Respectfully,
Steve
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-16804475
Respectfully,
Steve
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