Chances of an asteroid colliding with earth in 2036?

[Delirious]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/space/article/0,14493,1660485,00.html

"Nasa has estimated that an impact from Apophis, which has an outside chance of hitting the Earth in 2036, would release more than 100,000 times the energy released in the nuclear blast over Hiroshima. Thousands of square kilometres would be directly affected by the blast but the whole of the Earth would see the effects of the dust released into the atmosphere."

First paragraph from whole article.

Read. Discuss. Panic?

Interesting illustration I found concerning asteroids too on another board with this same topic.

 

[Cosmic]

Let's hope it will hit somewhere between Afrika and Asia.

Edit : If it will now hit.

 

[Danoff]

Interesting. I just glanced through the article, but it sounded like this is the same asteroid they thought might hit in 2029. If that's true, we'll have a much better feel for the trajectory when it does fly by in 2029 (too late for mission planning though).

I think if we're still worried about this 10 years from now, we should probably put something in orbit around the Earth to intercept the asteroid as it flies by. That makes sense to me anyway. It's coming to us, might as well hit it then.

They said the chance of it hitting us is 1 in 37... which is pretty big.

Edit: Oops, I read it wrong. The 1 in 37 was for 2029, which has been ruled out at this point. Right now that chances of this hitting us are 1 in 5500

 

[Raghavan]

Can we have some missile thingys hit the asteriod to break it up into smaller parts that can hopefully burn up in the atmosphere?

 

[Vonie]

Has anyone seen Deep Impact?

 

[Raghavan]

No.

 

[daan]

Oh No! We're all going to die!

 

[Raghavan]

Oh No! We're all going to die!

We all probably will if that hits. 1 in 37 chance is huge!

 

[daan]

1 in 37 chance is huge!

1 in 37 isn't going to happen.

Edit: Oops, I read it wrong. The 1 in 37 was for 2029, which has been ruled out at this point. Right now that chances of this hitting us are 1 in 5500

 

[Vonie]

As a comet is on a collision course with earth, humans have to prepare for their survival. They randomly select eight hundred thousand people to be saved in order to keep the human race alive.

So they try to divert the path of the comet, but instead blow it into 2 peices, the smaller of which it headed directly to earth. In the end they just blow it up and all the breifcase-sized peices hit earth.


Sounds like a plan!

 

[Raghavan]

1 in 37 isn't going to happen.

Oh, nevermind then. Now i can stop worrying.

 

[benzoboy]

Edit: Oops, I read it wrong. The 1 in 37 was for 2029, which has been ruled out at this point. Right now that chances of this hitting us are 1 in 5500

Which is quite small

 

[VIPFREAK]

Oh well... If it hits it hits if it doesn't it doesn't, no biggie.

 

[sn00pie]

Oh No! We're all going to die!

Yeah well duh.

 

[niky]

Has anyone seen Deep Impact?

The premise of Deep Impact was quite good. (and less silly than the patently Hollywood Armageddon_ Still don't understand why they had to send a manned mission at all, but then again, I wouldn't trust automated guidance systems to deliver all those explosives and dig by itself.

The pass in 2029 was really worrying, but now that it's been ruled out, that pass will at least help astronomers get a better fix on the asteroid's flight path.

1 in 5500 is still quite big. It's still frighteningly big, I'd say.

With 5 years lead time on the 2036 pass, if it's proven a good possibility for collision, we could probably prepare a response. The strategy used in Deep Impact won't work, as we don't have the resources to make a rocket powerful enough to reach the asteroid and match speeds with it.

Our first line of defense would be near misses by nuclear tipped rockets, to "steer" the thing away from the Earth. This would require a huge investment of resources... likely a few dozen rockets the size of the Saturn V as well as a whole bunch of ten megaton plus explosives.

If it gets closer than the moon before we can respond, though, we're in deep ****. We don't have enough launchable firepower to destroy it or reduce it to harmless fragments.

 

[Pink_the_Floyd]

Post this topic again in 2036.

 

[unsanctified]

Right now that chances of this hitting us are 1 in 5500

That still doesn't make me feel better.

 

[Eric.]

The premise of Deep Impact was quite good. (and less silly than the patently Hollywood Armageddon_ Still don't understand why they had to send a manned mission at all, but then again, I wouldn't trust automated guidance systems to deliver all those explosives and dig by itself.

The pass in 2029 was really worrying, but now that it's been ruled out, that pass will at least help astronomers get a better fix on the asteroid's flight path.

1 in 5500 is still quite big. It's still frighteningly big, I'd say.

With 5 years lead time on the 2036 pass, if it's proven a good possibility for collision, we could probably prepare a response. The strategy used in Deep Impact won't work, as we don't have the resources to make a rocket powerful enough to reach the asteroid and match speeds with it.

Our first line of defense would be near misses by nuclear tipped rockets, to "steer" the thing away from the Earth. This would require a huge investment of resources... likely a few dozen rockets the size of the Saturn V as well as a whole bunch of ten megaton plus explosives.

If it gets closer than the moon before we can respond, though, we're in deep ****. We don't have enough launchable firepower to destroy it or reduce it to harmless fragments.

It sounds like you work for NASA, the government, or you are a movie producer.

 

[Plague.Ghost]

Well, from what I've heard, NASA has an anti-matter technology department which has been making steady advancements since the early 90's. They're looking intousing it for propulsion and weaponry.

Apparently matter/anti-matter explosions are 1000^2x more powerfull than the most powerful nukes, and by 2036, it could be completely feesible to use it then. So, without nuclear radation, and possible atmospheric fallout, and huge EM pulses, anti-matter explosions make a lot more sense.

Some say it will be the power-source of the future.

 

[niky]

It sounds like you work for NASA, the government, or you are a movie producer.

I wish (the rockets, joy!), I wish (the nukes, joy!), and... well, it would be nice to have all that money, but I don't think I'd be able to live with the guilt if I were responsible for such gems as "Torque" and "Stealth".

 

[Blake]

Some say it will be the power-source of the future.

That’s what they said about Mices running on a wheel 100 years ago.

 

[Casio]

Don't you think that it's pretty gay that something less wide then a drag strip could destory the earth.

As for stopping it, surely it would be easier to make a giant trampoline for it to land on and bounce back into space, hopefully aimed at a rival planet. Like Mercury, what has Mercury ever done for us. Nothing. That's what. I hate Mercury.

 

[niky]

Antimatter is only feasible with current technology if you pour a tremendous amount of energy into creating it. Right now, our ability to collect antimatter created in particle accelerators is woefully inadequate... it's like shaking an apple tree by hitting it with a truck, and trying to catch falling apples with a hat (those that hit the ground are lost forever... ).

We still haven't collected enough antimatter in the past few decades to blow up a cockroach.

It's postulated that antimatter production will only become feasible with orbital solar-powered antimatter plants... which are still decades away.

 

[Famine]

1 in 5,500 chances never come off. When was the last time you heard someone say:

"It's a one in five thousand five hundred shot, but it might just work."

Never. That's when. It's only when it's a million to one that you start having to worry.

 

[daan]

It's only when it's a million to one that you start having to worry.

But you've got to make sure that it's exactly a million to one. 999,999 to 1 chances don't work either.

 

[Raghavan]

Ok, Famines last post is confusing me.

 

[Famine]

But you've got to make sure that it's exactly a million to one. 999,999 to 1 chances don't work either.

Quite right too. 1,467,237 to one chances never come off either.

It MUST be a million to one to work. 5,500 to one will never happen.

 

[Plague.Ghost]

He's being British again. It's called sarcasm.

 

[niky]

It's called an obscure British Literary Reference. But if I explain it, it wouldn't be funny anymore.

 

[G-T-4-Fan]

I already see myself coming into the hospital:

Nurse: "How can I help you?"

Me: "*sigh*...........I got hit by an asteroid"

Nurse: