Since he needs oxygen...
Like all reptiles
Since he needs oxygen...
You are missing the point of this entire thing though. The point of social distancing is to cause exactly what you are seeing on that graph. You do not want to see a giant peak and then fall in cases because that is what would overwhelm hospitals. The goal of this is to spread it out over a longer period as it gradually rises and falls at a much lower level. I do think there will be a point where we need to open the economy back up no matter what though. The harm caused by a collapsed economy because of months and months of shutdown would be far worse than anything this virus could ever do. People get this false sense that it's an easy choice between saving lives and money but this couldn't be further from the truth.You mean that in some of the logarithmic curves some of the states (and the US in general) is not keeping the initial pace of growth? I guess by tapering off I meant that I'm looking for a peak, some kind of indication that somewhere in the US the end of the strictest lockdown measures is in sight. I don't see it, even in Washington, which is many days ahead of me.
I'm not sure that this demonstrates functioning social distancing. I mean social distancing measures are almost certainly working, but we'd need to compare against a control group that didn't enact such measures and see marked improvement, and even then, we'd need to see enough comparisons to be sure it was social distancing. I'm comfortable claiming that it's reducing cases just because we know how it works, but I don't think the US curves demonstrate that it is.
Edit:
Maybe South Korea is that test. How on earth... they seem to have achieved "containment" or not quite but close and held it for quite a long time. I don't know how that's possible, especially with the US turning itself into a coronavirus factory. You'd think we'd have exported that back over there by now, but they've got strict international measures. South Korea is kindof an astonishing case. Maybe that's all of their new cases, people coming out of international quarantine with it.
Control groups are difficult/almost impossible in this case... I reckon the best/most meaningful comparison is to compare each region/state before and after lockdown measures were imposed.You mean that in some of the logarithmic curves some of the states (and the US in general) is not keeping the initial pace of growth? I guess by tapering off I meant that I'm looking for a peak, some kind of indication that somewhere in the US the end of the strictest lockdown measures is in sight. I don't see it, even in Washington, which is many days ahead of me.
I'm not sure that this demonstrates functioning social distancing. I mean social distancing measures are almost certainly working, but we'd need to compare against a control group that didn't enact such measures and see marked improvement, and even then, we'd need to see enough comparisons to be sure it was social distancing. I'm comfortable claiming that it's reducing cases just because we know how it works, but I don't think the US curves demonstrate that it is.
Edit:
Maybe South Korea is that test. How on earth... they seem to have achieved "containment" or not quite but close and held it for quite a long time. I don't know how that's possible, especially with the US turning itself into a coronavirus factory. You'd think we'd have exported that back over there by now, but they've got strict international measures. South Korea is kindof an astonishing case. Maybe that's all of their new cases, people coming out of international quarantine with it.
The bad news for them is that they will only stay that way if they keep on top of it as much as they have been, and the longer it goes on, the more onerous it will be. The kicker is that if they have actually contained it, then they cannot re-open their airports without 14-21 day quarantine of all international travellers, and, worse still, they will have no herd immunity... in other words, they might only be postponing a severe outbreak instead of avoiding it. That said, they also seem well placed to manage an outbreak if and when it happens, and I expect SK may well be a model for future pandemics which, frankly, are certain to happen again and again.
The thing is though, the world has changed a lot since 1918. I find it very unlikely that this will last as long as the Spanish flu. You also have to take into account that many people are not even getting tested that actually have the virus which causes current statistics about it to be incredibly flawed. Yes, it’s a bad illness but it is very likely that it is not nearly as deadly as it is being reported on. When the only individuals getting tested are the ones who are experiencing severe symptoms, you can’t use the mortality rate to justify the severity of the outbreak. We have already seen a large number of individuals who have gotten through this with relatively mild symptoms rather quickly. There is likely a very large number of individuals who have already had this, shrugged it off as a flu, and got over it. This would mean we would reach a level of heard immunity much quicker than anticipated. I’m not trying to say this isn’t a serious issue, but the US and especially the world cannot stay shut down for months without major consequences far worse than what Covid-19 would ever cause.I accept your key insights and predictions going forward. The Spanish flu took 22 months and 3 peaks to be done with. I see no reason whatever this pandemic will essentially be any different. The economic consequences are going to be shocking and painful for all, and devastating for some. When this pandemic is over, the world cannot and will not ever be the same as it was, but just now we cannot know exactly how bad it will be. It almost doesn't bear thinking about. Sheer physical survival and its economic basis are the consuming challenges of the moment.
You are missing the point of this entire thing though. The point of social distancing is to cause exactly what you are seeing on that graph. You do not want to see a giant peak and then fall in cases because that is what would overwhelm hospitals.
I do think there will be a point where we need to open the economy back up no matter what though.
Control groups are difficult/almost impossible in this case... I reckon the best/most meaningful comparison is to compare each region/state before and after lockdown measures were imposed.
I think that the curves in the US are promising
The US will likely/hopefully see a peak of daily new cases within the next two weeks.
The bad news for them is that they will only stay that way if they keep on top of it as much as they have been, and the longer it goes on, the more onerous it will be.
Not just people, but the president and his buddies at that.It's so sickening that in all this madness people are still out to make profit off of the lives of others.
It's so sickening that in all this madness people are still out to make profit off of the lives of others.
Since he needs oxygen, and is therefore not admitted purely for tests
This is the most common excuse people use in retail to justify being wrong about something/being a rude asshole. They say that and I respond with "what does that have to do with the current situation?""I've shopped here for years"
Well, to be fair, there always has to be ONE dumb politician...Just need to vent that Georgia’s governor is a complete 🤬 imbecile. He thought it would be a great idea to reopen the state’s beaches, and this is after he claimed of not knowing that COVID-19 can spread without someone showing symptoms. And to think the CDC’s headquarters are located here.
I really wish I was joking.
Update: Boris Johnson has been taken to intensive care.
That's the same guy who was permitted to oversee, as Secretary of State, the election in which he was running for Governor.Just need to vent that Georgia’s governor is a complete 🤬 imbecile. He thought it would be a great idea to reopen the state’s beaches, and this is after he claimed of not knowing that COVID-19 can spread without someone showing symptoms. And to think the CDC’s headquarters are located here.
I really wish I was joking.
I guess they see the children as lambs?So Denmark has just decided to send the 1-5 grade elementary school students back in class as the first step in slowly reopening our society next week. I struggle to see what this achieves other than being an unnecessary risk for all affected families.