COVID-19/Coronavirus Information and Support Thread (see OP for useful links)

[baldgye]

Since he needs oxygen...

Like all reptiles

 

[andrea]

Well, this is precious.

 

[fortbo]

You mean that in some of the logarithmic curves some of the states (and the US in general) is not keeping the initial pace of growth? I guess by tapering off I meant that I'm looking for a peak, some kind of indication that somewhere in the US the end of the strictest lockdown measures is in sight. I don't see it, even in Washington, which is many days ahead of me.

I'm not sure that this demonstrates functioning social distancing. I mean social distancing measures are almost certainly working, but we'd need to compare against a control group that didn't enact such measures and see marked improvement, and even then, we'd need to see enough comparisons to be sure it was social distancing. I'm comfortable claiming that it's reducing cases just because we know how it works, but I don't think the US curves demonstrate that it is.

Edit:

Maybe South Korea is that test. How on earth... they seem to have achieved "containment" or not quite but close and held it for quite a long time. I don't know how that's possible, especially with the US turning itself into a coronavirus factory. You'd think we'd have exported that back over there by now, but they've got strict international measures. South Korea is kindof an astonishing case. Maybe that's all of their new cases, people coming out of international quarantine with it.

You are missing the point of this entire thing though. The point of social distancing is to cause exactly what you are seeing on that graph. You do not want to see a giant peak and then fall in cases because that is what would overwhelm hospitals. The goal of this is to spread it out over a longer period as it gradually rises and falls at a much lower level. I do think there will be a point where we need to open the economy back up no matter what though. The harm caused by a collapsed economy because of months and months of shutdown would be far worse than anything this virus could ever do. People get this false sense that it's an easy choice between saving lives and money but this couldn't be further from the truth.

 

[Touring Mars]

You mean that in some of the logarithmic curves some of the states (and the US in general) is not keeping the initial pace of growth? I guess by tapering off I meant that I'm looking for a peak, some kind of indication that somewhere in the US the end of the strictest lockdown measures is in sight. I don't see it, even in Washington, which is many days ahead of me.

I'm not sure that this demonstrates functioning social distancing. I mean social distancing measures are almost certainly working, but we'd need to compare against a control group that didn't enact such measures and see marked improvement, and even then, we'd need to see enough comparisons to be sure it was social distancing. I'm comfortable claiming that it's reducing cases just because we know how it works, but I don't think the US curves demonstrate that it is.

Edit:

Maybe South Korea is that test. How on earth... they seem to have achieved "containment" or not quite but close and held it for quite a long time. I don't know how that's possible, especially with the US turning itself into a coronavirus factory. You'd think we'd have exported that back over there by now, but they've got strict international measures. South Korea is kindof an astonishing case. Maybe that's all of their new cases, people coming out of international quarantine with it.

Control groups are difficult/almost impossible in this case... I reckon the best/most meaningful comparison is to compare each region/state before and after lockdown measures were imposed.

I think that the curves in the US are promising - but you will only see a peak in a) new daily cases and b) deaths; the latter being offset from the former by several days, and the former being offset from the start of the lockdown by anything from 7-21 days (ca. 14 days average).

The US will likely/hopefully see a peak of daily new cases within the next two weeks. The good news is that local restrictions may soon be gradually lifted, but the bad news is that some (possibly severe) restrictions will remain in place for many months. I think the biggest of these will be international travel and interstate travel in the US, coupled with mass/global testing (both for the virus and for antibodies to establish who has already been infected.)

-

South Korea is indeed astonishing yet entirely credible and believable... unlike China.

The bad news for them is that they will only stay that way if they keep on top of it as much as they have been, and the longer it goes on, the more onerous it will be. The kicker is that if they have actually contained it, then they cannot re-open their airports without 14-21 day quarantine of all international travellers, and, worse still, they will have no herd immunity... in other words, they might only be postponing a severe outbreak instead of avoiding it. That said, they also seem well placed to manage an outbreak if and when it happens, and I expect SK may well be a model for future pandemics which, frankly, are certain to happen again and again.

 

[FoRiZon]

GOOD!

 

[baldgye]

More than 400 new deaths confirmed in England
NHS England has confirmed that a further 403 people have died after contracting coronavirus, bringing the English death toll to 4,897.
The patients were aged between 35 and 106 years old. Of these 403 people, 15 had no known underlying health condition. The latest figures cover the period up until 17:00 on Sunday.

 

[Dotini]

The bad news for them is that they will only stay that way if they keep on top of it as much as they have been, and the longer it goes on, the more onerous it will be. The kicker is that if they have actually contained it, then they cannot re-open their airports without 14-21 day quarantine of all international travellers, and, worse still, they will have no herd immunity... in other words, they might only be postponing a severe outbreak instead of avoiding it. That said, they also seem well placed to manage an outbreak if and when it happens, and I expect SK may well be a model for future pandemics which, frankly, are certain to happen again and again.

I accept your key insights and predictions going forward. The Spanish flu took 22 months and 3 peaks to be done with. I see no reason whatever this pandemic will essentially be any different. The economic consequences are going to be shocking and painful for all, and devastating for some. When this pandemic is over, the world cannot and will not ever be the same as it was, but just now we cannot know exactly how bad it will be. It almost doesn't bear thinking about. Sheer physical survival and its economic basis are the consuming challenges of the moment.

 

[Blitz24]

It was not enjoyable yesterday going out to grab medicine. As I was walking in and waiting for a man who just walked out to either put his mask on (it was on his chin) or to move away from the entrance (I was standing there wearing a scarf), he questioned my actions and upon hearing what I was doing, decided to make some anti-Semitic remarks towards me.

Next, I walked into a kosher grocery store where a woman complained that the lines were too long and they should open up a second register. When the man came to the cashier, he was not wearing a mask or gloves (the store provided gloves at the entrance, and most customers were wearing them), so the same women threatened to call the department of health to shut down the store.

I honestly don't want to go to a store for months now.

 

[MUSC4EVER]

Boris Johnson under observation in St Thomas Hospital and he has a temperature and a cough.

He has taken to Twitter to say that he is in good spirits.

 

[fortbo]

I accept your key insights and predictions going forward. The Spanish flu took 22 months and 3 peaks to be done with. I see no reason whatever this pandemic will essentially be any different. The economic consequences are going to be shocking and painful for all, and devastating for some. When this pandemic is over, the world cannot and will not ever be the same as it was, but just now we cannot know exactly how bad it will be. It almost doesn't bear thinking about. Sheer physical survival and its economic basis are the consuming challenges of the moment.

The thing is though, the world has changed a lot since 1918. I find it very unlikely that this will last as long as the Spanish flu. You also have to take into account that many people are not even getting tested that actually have the virus which causes current statistics about it to be incredibly flawed. Yes, it’s a bad illness but it is very likely that it is not nearly as deadly as it is being reported on. When the only individuals getting tested are the ones who are experiencing severe symptoms, you can’t use the mortality rate to justify the severity of the outbreak. We have already seen a large number of individuals who have gotten through this with relatively mild symptoms rather quickly. There is likely a very large number of individuals who have already had this, shrugged it off as a flu, and got over it. This would mean we would reach a level of heard immunity much quicker than anticipated. I’m not trying to say this isn’t a serious issue, but the US and especially the world cannot stay shut down for months without major consequences far worse than what Covid-19 would ever cause.

 

[Danoff]

You are missing the point of this entire thing though. The point of social distancing is to cause exactly what you are seeing on that graph. You do not want to see a giant peak and then fall in cases because that is what would overwhelm hospitals.

I'm aware.

I do think there will be a point where we need to open the economy back up no matter what though.

That's almost inescapably true.

Control groups are difficult/almost impossible in this case... I reckon the best/most meaningful comparison is to compare each region/state before and after lockdown measures were imposed.

Even that is difficult to do since before was a much lower case total than after (kinda by definition). So the dynamics have shifted.

I think that the curves in the US are promising

I'm glad you do. I'm not sure I do. In the meantime, it seems like we're learning quite a bit about the disease, how to treat it, how to predict severe effects... so it's probably a good time to delay getting it just from a personal preservation perspective. Because it does seem like it picks out some seemingly healthy people and kills them.

The US will likely/hopefully see a peak of daily new cases within the next two weeks.

Maybe as a nation, because New York is on a big trajectory to peak hard and soon. I think Colorado is stuck for quite a while based on how Washington is playing out.

The bad news for them is that they will only stay that way if they keep on top of it as much as they have been, and the longer it goes on, the more onerous it will be.

Yea we'll see that play out to a lesser degree among states. But South Korea absolutely has a tough job ahead of them because of how well they've contained it so far. No good deed goes unpunished it seems.

 

[Sander 001]

 

[DesertPenguin]

It's so sickening that in all this madness people are still out to make profit off of the lives of others.

 

[Rallywagon]

It's so sickening that in all this madness people are still out to make profit off of the lives of others.

Not just people, but the president and his buddies at that.

 

[Jezza819]

It's so sickening that in all this madness people are still out to make profit off of the lives of others.

I was watching "Live PD" either Friday or Saturday night I can't remember which and they had a clip filmed from an officer's dash cam of this idiot parked out on the outer edge of a grocery store's parking lot with his trunk raised up and a sign that read "Toilet Paper $60 per roll Cash Only". He had what looked like 2 or 3 12 roll packs. When the officer walked up to his car and asked him about it, he said "He's just trying to help people out" Really?!?! Price gouging in front of the supermarket no less is just trying to help people out? Then he kept going on and on about "this is so ridiculous" and "I've shopped here for years" as they served him with a trespass notice that he wasn't allowed back on store property for a year.

 

[Liquid]

Since he needs oxygen, and is therefore not admitted purely for tests

He might not "need" it but gets it anyway. He gets better treatment than you.

 

[DesertPenguin]

"I've shopped here for years"

This is the most common excuse people use in retail to justify being wrong about something/being a rude asshole. They say that and I respond with "what does that have to do with the current situation?"

 

[C_Raccoon23]

Just need to vent that Georgia’s governor is a complete 🤬 imbecile. He thought it would be a great idea to reopen the state’s beaches, and this is after he claimed of not knowing that COVID-19 can spread without someone showing symptoms. And to think the CDC’s headquarters are located here.

I really wish I was joking.

 

[Blitz24]

Just need to vent that Georgia’s governor is a complete 🤬 imbecile. He thought it would be a great idea to reopen the state’s beaches, and this is after he claimed of not knowing that COVID-19 can spread without someone showing symptoms. And to think the CDC’s headquarters are located here.

I really wish I was joking.

Well, to be fair, there always has to be ONE dumb politician...

 

[Liquid]

Update: Boris Johnson has been taken to intensive care.

 

[andrea]

He's gonna be St. Boris soon.

 

[Submerged]

That's pretty sobering though.

 

[HenrySwanson]

I wonder if he has any comorbidities - his weight won't help the situation as it is.

 

[baldgye]

Update: Boris Johnson has been taken to intensive care.

big yikes

 

[TexRex]

Just need to vent that Georgia’s governor is a complete 🤬 imbecile. He thought it would be a great idea to reopen the state’s beaches, and this is after he claimed of not knowing that COVID-19 can spread without someone showing symptoms. And to think the CDC’s headquarters are located here.

I really wish I was joking.

That's the same guy who was permitted to oversee, as Secretary of State, the election in which he was running for Governor.

 

[andrea]

 

[baldgye]

I wonder what that would be for his age bracket

 

[Nielsen]

So Denmark has just decided to send the 1-5 grade elementary school students back in class as the first step in slowly reopening our society next week. I struggle to see what this achieves other than being an unnecessary risk for all affected families.

 

[MUSC4EVER]

So Boris went from just having one symptom on Saturday, to being admitted to hospital last night, to being moved to intensive care tonight.

Quite sobering and scary.

Wishing him a speedy recovery.

 

[Blitz24]

So Denmark has just decided to send the 1-5 grade elementary school students back in class as the first step in slowly reopening our society next week. I struggle to see what this achieves other than being an unnecessary risk for all affected families.

I guess they see the children as lambs?