COVID-19/Coronavirus Information and Support Thread (see OP for useful links)

[DesertPenguin]

"Why it needs to be a competition when so many people are dying?" Do you really believe this is a honest question? That somehow an answer to that question would give anything to the table?

I get that, but I'm also a motorsports fan and if you saw the types of questions that get asked of Formula 1 drivers you might see it differently.

It's not about the words that he uses to answer the question, it's about his demeanor and composure in doing so. A question like that is designed to get under your skin. A good public speaker or figure of power would not get caught out by that and answer the question in a dignified manner. This is done to show that the leader has compassion and a cool head. Trump is not one of those people so he gets flustered and we all saw what came of that.

You never see Formula 1 drivers blow up at reporters and storming off when they get asked "why did you crash?"

 

[Dotini]

The daily number of confirmed cases in the US is shrinking, as is the daily mortality

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/



Flattening the curve was only ever supposed to delay infections so we didn't nuke our healthcare systems. For the most part that worked just about everywhere except the east coast and Michigan. Unfortunately, we're probably going to end up back in some sort of lockdown to reflatten the curve.

I don't see the graphic. The daily number of confirmed cases in my state is steady or growing. But the overall, worldwide (global) numbers of daily growth in confirmed infections is what I had in mind. I believe this, the crucial number, is steady or growing.

 

[TexRex]

...I'm not going to take it as a license to post off-topic material on this or any other thread.

NASA links to cosmic rays with cardiac arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death in the general population:

1. https://www.heartrhythmjournal.com/article/S1547-5271(08)00481-5/fulltext

2. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18810718

3. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1501097/

4. https://shao.az/SG/v1n2/SG_v1_No2_2006-pp-13-16.pdf


General links to cosmic rays and viral mutations:

5. https://www.longdom.org/open-access...nomaly-before-hn-outbreak-2332-2594-2-113.pdf

6. https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/co...he-historic-solar-minimum-cause-the-pandemic/

7. https://www.currentscience.ac.in/Volumes/115/03/0382.pdf <-- Here be opinion by the dreaded Wickramsinghe

8. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20624059

9. https://www.technologyreview.com/20...-neutrons-and-the-mutation-rate-in-evolution/

10. https://juniperpublishers.com/ijcsmb/pdf/IJCSMB.MS.ID.555636.pdf

11.https://thescipub.com/abstract/10.3844/ajidsp.2005.116.123

12. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/323800049_Was_the_Zika_virus_Outbreak_in_2015_Triggered_by_Cosmic_Event

13. https://www.researchgate.net/public...tic_Field_Cosmic_Rays_and_Zika_Virus_Outbreak

Note: I have made no claim the novel coronavirus is of cosmic origin. Correlation is not causation.

 

[Joey D]

I don't see the graphic. The daily number of confirmed cases in my state is steady or growing. But the overall, worldwide (global) numbers of daily growth in confirmed infections is what I had in mind. I believe this, the crucial number, is steady or growing.

Just scroll down on that page:

There's an average downward trend starting on April 24th.

 

[Dotini]

Just scroll down on that page:

There's an average downward trend starting on April 24th.

I see only the most modest of a downtrend, with waving spikes up.

Even so, the global trend I think matters most. I think we'll be seeing waves until herd immunity or vaccine, whatever comes first, and I don't think either are slam dunks.

I want to see a graph that shows total global cases. I expect it's on a steady slope up. I expect it's about 4.5 million. Which is just a tiny fraction of vulnerable world population, even considering true infections are 10x higher than confirmed.

 

[FPV MIC]

I want to see a graph that shows total global cases. I expect it's on a steady slope up. I expect it's about 4.5 million. Which is just a tiny fraction of vulnerable world population, even considering true infections are 10x higher than confirmed.

Here you go...

From here: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/worldwide-graphs/#active-cases

 

[Dotini]

Here you go...

View attachment 920333

From here: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/worldwide-graphs/#active-cases

Thank you. Below is the one I wanted to see. It shows an unreduced and steady climb up. Too bad I couldn't copy and paste it.

Total Cases (worldwide)
"Total Cases" = total cumulative count (4,397,001). This figure includes deaths and recovered or discharged patients (cases with an outcome).

• linear
• logarithmic

Source: Worldometer - www.worldometers.info

=======================================================

At last, the graph I wanted to see.

How is that upper line going to change? What's going to make it change?

In the last 2 months it's gone up steadily to ~4,400,000. Lets assume the true number including unreported and subclinical cases raise the figure to 44 million. So, 264,000,000/yr. At the current level of containment and mitigation, how many years will it be before 60-70% of the world has been infected? For how long can the current level of containment and mitigation be sustained?

 

[McLaren]

It's becoming evident that that flattening the curve will only delay the infection rate based on spiking numbers of new cases in states that have reopened. I sadly think it's a combination of the people not fully following social distancing rules AND people blatantly thinking that since the lockdown ended, the threat has passed.

That's here in Texas. People have stopped caring & insult you if you bring up any concerns in their community. They'll only think Covid-19 is serious if it literally overtaxes health care & they start picking who to treat. If it's not that extreme, you're a sheep.

 

[RacingGrandpa]

How is that upper line going to change? What's going to make it change?

Since it's cumulative it's not supposed to change. It can't go down.

 

[FPV MIC]

Since it's cumulative it's not supposed to change. It can't go down.

Yes you're right, it can't go down but it can level off. The line is a distinctly different shape for Australia and it's what I'd like to see happen worldwide (except completely level ).

 

[Dotini]

Since it's cumulative it's not supposed to change. It can't go down.

True. It can't go down. But can it continue on through time going up at the same angle? Why does the line take that angle? Is it because (A) the virus is infecting humans as best it can and (B) the human race is containing and mitigating the virus as best it can?

 

[TexRex]

Guys, guys, guys. This whole situation is scary and @Dotini is just making sure everyone realizes it. Why must we rain on that parade?

 

[CodeRedR51]

"You're graph is wrong, I prefer this graph."

So only graphs that show an increase are the right ones? Who says?

Also, where's the vaccine news? Bueller?

 

[Touring Mars]

Some developments from today:

Spain has tested 60000 people and found a 5% rate of antibodies, suggesting at least 2 million people have recovered from the virus.

Given that Spain currently has less than 250,000 confirmed cases, this proves that the true infection rate is around 10 times higher than confirmed cases, as might be expected.

-

The WHO suggest that SARS-CoV-2 may "never be eradicated" and become endemic...

-

The UK Government have confirmed that a new antibody tested developed by Swiss pharmaceutical company Roche is '100% accurate' and will be approved by the UK for general use.

-

Police in the UK are using CCTV footage to identify a man who spat and coughed at a ticket collector in a London train station - the ticket collector became ill a few days later and subsequently died from COVID-19.

-
@Dotini The first post in this thread has links to multiple useful sources for future reference...

@R1600Turbo Vaccine development is on-going in thousands of labs across the world... there are many different potential vaccines, but as it stands there is no effective vaccine against any common coronaviruses, and I doubt SARS-CoV-2 will be an exception. There may need to be multiple vaccines, and even then they may not be useable by everyone, and may not be effective against all strains of the current virus. For the time being, it would be a better idea to assume that a vaccine will not be ready for some time (like 12-18 months from now), but that this may not happen at all.

 

[Blitz24]

-

The WHO suggest that SARS-CoV-2 may "never be eradicated" and become endemic...

-

This doesn't shock me in the least.

 

[Joey D]

Also, where's the vaccine news? Bueller?

Eight different companies have moved onto human trials, which should progress throughout the summer. The Trump administration has dubbed its pressure to get the vaccine out "Operation Warp Speed".

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/13/politics/white-house-coronavirus-vaccine/index.html

I'm not sure how soon we will see a vaccine, or if we will see one at all. But given the pressure from Trump and the sheer amount of money being thrown at development, I'm guessing we will see something sooner rather than later. Several companies have already started producing nonapproved vaccines in hopes that they do get approved. That way if one is approved, there are millions of doses available and people can get vaccinated relatively quickly. My guess is they'd like something by October so they could combine it with people getting their yearly flu shot. Also, I'm sure Trump wants the vaccine before the election so he can tout that he made it all possible.

While the vaccine is great and something we should be working on, it seems like it'd make more sense to develop a drug to help combat COVID-19. If something was formulated that worked similar to Tamiflu, that would help. It wouldn't cure you by any means, but it could prevent you from getting so sick you end up in the hospital. Also, if they could derive some sort of inhaler to help people, that would also be rather helpful. I know we have treatments currently, but I don't believe any of them are specific for COVID-19.

The WHO suggest that SARS-CoV-2 may "never be eradicated" and become endemic...

Sure, I mean we still have measles, smallpox, chickenpox, and even polio. I don't think it's ever possible to completely eradicate any virus. And in any case, wouldn't the virus still be present in whatever animal it originally came from? I'm guessing it was either bats or pangolins, but I don't know for sure. All it would take is for someone to either eat or use that animal in some way and they could potentially get infected.

 

[TenEightyOne]

It's becoming evident that that flattening the curve will only delay the infection rate based on spiking numbers of new cases in states that have reopened.

In a wider sense that's the intention. It doesn't necessarily reduce the number of overall cases but it keeps case occurence to a manageable rate in the health infrastructure.

 

[Danoff]

Given that Spain currently has less than 250,000 confirmed cases, this proves that the true infection rate is around 10 times higher than confirmed cases, as might be expected.

And that the fatality rate is 10x lower.

Sure, I mean we still have measles, smallpox, chickenpox, and even polio. I don't think it's ever possible to completely eradicate any virus.

I think we only have smallpox in labs.

World Free of Smallpox
Almost two centuries after Jenner published his hope that vaccination could annihilate smallpox, on May 8, 1980, the 33rd World Health Assembly officially declared the world free of this disease. Eradication of smallpox is considered the biggest achievement in international public health.

 

[Blitz24]

In a wider sense that's the intention. It doesn't necessarily reduce the number of overall cases but it keeps case occurence to a manageable rate in the health infrastructure.

Right. It's become the new normal. I just wonder what else will change.

 

[Danoff]

Right. It's become the new normal. I just wonder what else will change.

I think that was always the intention of "flattening the curve". It just got misinterpreted and enshrined as "protecting people from the virus" instead of what it was - avoiding triage.

 

[Blitz24]

I think that was always the intention of "flattening the curve". It just got misinterpreted and enshrined as "protecting people from the virus" instead of what it was - avoiding triage.

The problem is that too many companies that can function without people going into the office are going to go right back to insisting people go into the office once a state "opens up".

 

[Dotini]

It is my impression that the US food chain is broken - specifically the meat packing industry. This problem is intolerable for very long, and will need to be addressed in some way. What would that be?

Given the facts as we come to understand them, it becomes apparent to me that the current level of containment and mitigation, at least in the US, is not sustainable for a period of ten years or more, and probably even two full years will be a very ugly stretch. This realization has caused me to change my thinking somewhat on the lockdown: The Swedish model needs a closer look. More people need to be back at work and school - not all and not instantly, but many and soon. I think masks, gloves and eye protection need to be routine practice for everybody everywhere in public.

 

[Danoff]

The problem is that too many companies that can function without people going into the office are going to go right back to insisting people go into the office once a state "opens up".

Yea that's definitely going to happen some. Old habits die hard. However, companies that don't do that are going to find that they win on reduced office space (money saved) reduced overhead in other areas (money saved), and improved recruiting. I think we've been shoved over the tipping point, maybe that's wishful thinking.

 

[GBO Possum]

Back on topic, I'd like to see an up-to-date graphic of global Covid-19 infections, please.

Every few days I copy tables of data from https://srv1.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

The "Active Cases" in the USA are still growing. We now own 42% of the world's Active Cases.

Active Cases in well-managed countries are dropping as recoveries (and deaths, of course) reduce the total. The above website has graphics showing the trends of Active Cases.

Here's a graphic showing the shares of over 200 countries, with names of the top 12. Of course the Trump Cultists will say "whatabout such-and-such country, you can't trust their numbers". To which I say, look at the big picture.

The reality is that the per capita statistics for America are appallingly bad, whether you look at Deaths/Million, Active Cases/Million, Tests/Million, whatever.

The root cause, of course, is that when confronted with an exponential change, the failure to act rapidly makes for a huge long-term penalty. Even hours can matter. It's like driving on the race track. When you start to slide, you can't go into full denial mode. Unless you want to crash. Trump went full denial for about ten weeks, so when the CDC screwed up with tests, nobody was taking control.

Let me know what other graphics you'd like and I'll see what I can do. But take a look at the data available at https://srv1.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ first.

 

[GBO Possum]

Yes you're right, it can't go down but it can level off. The line is a distinctly different shape for Australia and it's what I'd like to see happen worldwide (except completely level ).
View attachment 920361

This is why "Active Cases" is a more meaningful metric. It also gives a hint of how many infected people are running around. It's also instructive to look at Active Cases per Million to get an idea of the relative probability that a person on the street near you may be a carrier.

Here are two charts. It MAY be that the US has peaked in the last couple of days, but it's too early to tell. Australia peaked ages ago and has things comparatively under control

EDIT: Be careful when looking at daily counts of cases or deaths. They tend not to be reported the same on weekends as on weekdays. I recommend doing a moving average over 7 or 14 days to get rid of these anomalies.

 

[Danoff]

The reality is that the per capita statistics for America are appallingly bad, whether you look at Deaths/Million, Active Cases/Million, Tests/Million, whatever.

Huh?

Take a look here:

http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/

US is below France, Netherlands, UK, Spain, Italy, and Belgium in terms of deaths per capita.

 

[GBO Possum]

Huh?

Take a look here:

http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/

US is below France, Netherlands, UK, Spain, Italy, and Belgium in terms of deaths per capita.

The US is in the top 7% of countries by deaths per capita.

Then there's this...

 

[McLaren]

Have @Touring Mars or @Joey D heard anything more about this inflammatory syndrome, Kawasaki-isk illness being linked to Covid as a post viral immune response? Cuomo said 60% of the children tested positive for Covid & another report said some of the negative tests still showed positive for antibodies. I can't verify this with a report, but someone on Reddit said the UK's children diagnosed had all tested positive for Covid which led to the deduction of it being an immune response. Cuomo said the majority of the Covid-positive children went into ICU. New York is 1 of 15 states reporting this concern.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...-covid-19-a9512851.html?utm_source=reddit.com

 

[FPV MIC]

This is why "Active Cases" is a more meaningful metric. It also gives a hint of how many infected people are running around. It's also instructive to look at Active Cases per Million to get an idea of the relative probability that a person on the street near you may be a carrier.

Here are two charts. It MAY be that the US has peaked in the last couple of days, but it's too early to tell. Australia peaked ages ago and has things comparatively under control
View attachment 920426 View attachment 920427

EDIT: Be careful when looking at daily counts of cases or deaths. They tend not to be reported the same on weekends as on weekdays. I recommend doing a moving average over 7 or 14 days to get rid of these anomalies.

It was just a comparison to show that while cumulative figures can't go down (as mentioned in the post I replied to) the shape of the line can change, as it has in Australia's case (level is best because it means no new active cases).

I agree active cases are the best numbers to use, be it by per million or just as a whole, and I've previously mentioned that .

My personal gripe with the way Covid-19 is being reported is that the active case numbers are hardly ever mentioned, which to me is the important number, it's always the total cases.

 

[Joey D]

Have @Touring Mars or @Joey D heard anything more about this inflammatory syndrome, Kawasaki-isk illness being linked to Covid as a post viral immune response? Cuomo said 60% of the children tested positive for Covid & another report said some of the negative tests still showed positive for antibodies. I can't verify this with a report, but someone on Reddit said the UK's children diagnosed had all tested positive for Covid which led to the deduction of it being an immune response. Cuomo said the majority of the Covid-positive children went into ICU. New York is 1 of 15 states reporting this concern.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...-covid-19-a9512851.html?utm_source=reddit.com

I believe it's being called Pediatric Inflammatory Multisystem Syndrome (PIMS). Unfortunately, I don't think much is known about it right now. Our Cheif of Pediatric Infectious Disease, Dr. Andrew Pavia, has said it's probably related to the body's immune system going into overdrive after being exposed to COVID-19. Thankfully, it seems like it's pretty rare and it could very well be related to another underlying condition. We've only had 250 peds patients under the age of 14 test positive for COVID-19 in Utah and I think only 3 or 4 have actually been hospitalized. They're currently investigating one potential case out of those that could've been PIMS, but they're still unsure.

As far as treatment goes we will be treating it using the same protocol as Kawasaki Disease, which is basically trying to reduce inflammation and use blood plasma infusions. Thankfully, it's not thought to be contagious, which helps with the care.