COVID-19/Coronavirus Information and Support Thread (see OP for useful links)

[TexRex]

Say, isn't that @Dennisch's brand?

If the toilet paper runs out, there's always graphing paper. And once that's gone...flypaper.

 

[UKMikey]

Say, isn't that @Dennisch's brand?

If he already used that joke then it looks like I was tree'd. Although after a session with good ol' B.A. it feels like one has been "treed".

Meanwhile back on topic I don't think the US has to worry about medicine as DJ Trump has reportedly ordered a lot of different elements of medical.

 

[Dennisch]

They closed a Nike building here in my town because of the scary virus.

That's about 1 kilometer from my house.
WE ARE ALL GOING TO DIE!

 

[baldgye]

As reported cases within Italy and the U.K. rapidly increase, some calm and reassurance from the British government...


Coronavirus outbreak could force UK to shut down entire cities, health secretary admits
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-uk-outbreak-city-shut-down-matt-hancock-interview-bbc-andrew-marr-a9366971.html?utm_source=reddit.com

 

[CodeRedR51]

Woke up with a scratchy throat this morning and stuffy ears. Am I going to die?

 

[Touring Mars]

Am I going to die?

Yes.... eventually.

-

Scotland recorded it's first case last night, and there are signs of the start of an outbreak in England... needless to say, it has a lot of people rattled - but at least my family are preparing for disruption. That said, my Dad flew out to Spain for 10 days this morning and I am more nervous about that than anything else. That said, Benidorm is literally my Dad's idea of heaven, so he is not exactly averse to the idea of being stuck there.

 

[baldgye]

That said, Benidorm is literally my Dad's idea of heaven, so he is not exactly averse to the idea of being stuck there.

I'd imagine there is enough ethanol in the air there to pretty much kill any serious viruses too!



------------------------
Good general advice seems to be; If you have the ability to work from home, I would suggest you make the relevant provisions to allow that to be the case if needed. It seems like cities will be placed on lock down should a proper breakout occur and public transportation will be heavily restricted.

 

[Touring Mars]

The problem is, the media in the US anyway, is reporting the number like it's a fact and also routinely fail to mention the mortality rate is 3.5% among known cases. Yesterday the news was leading with stories that revolved around "the coronavirus death rate continues to rise". While that's certainly true, they didn't explain the why behind it and never mentioned anything about unreported cases. The media seems to be selling the narrative that we mostly know who has the virus when, in fact, we probably only know a small percentage of it. While it's not "fake news", it's certainly sensationalized and conveniently omits parts of the overall story.

I do think the mortality rate is lower than what's being reported. I also think the Chinese figured are grossly underestimated to the tune of hundreds of thousands just due to the fact China is almost never upfront about anything. Known case though almost always seems to be among those who are very sick or at least sick enough that they feel like they need medical attention. My hunch is that there are people who are contracting CoV-19 that aren't sick enough to seek medical attention. I also believe that those not sick enough to seek medical attention probably wouldn't be at risk of dying from the disease or complications. I very well could be wrong in all of this though, I freely admit that, but given the information we currently know I'd rather err on the side of "it's not that bad yet" instead of erring on the side of "we're all going to die, let's panic."

As has been said before, the mortality rate is inherently uncertain and particularly difficult to ascertain in the early stages of a pandemic. The 'good' news is that the initial death rate of a novel viral outbreak is always going to be higher than the eventual death rate, for the reasons that you point out.

Perhaps what is more comforting is that even with this 'high end' estimate, the mortality rate for otherwise healthy people (who are not elderly at least) is very low - around 0.4%... and that could be an order of magnitude lower.

If, however, China really is covering up the actual number of deaths, then the current numbers may be lower than reality - but, China doesn't even need to bother covering up the real number of infections because they can't possibly know that anyway. What happens in rest of the world will hopefully be more instructive, but it wouldn't surprise me if the (important) numbers coming of China are really quite accurate (and yet, thanks to the inherent uncertainty, are probably an overestimate of the 'real' situation).

The upshot is that the death rate is more likely than not lower than what is being officially recorded, but even if it isn't, it is still pretty low... worse that seasonal flu, but not by a huge margin (i.e. maybe twice as bad) for otherwise healthy and younger people.

Let's hope, however, that there are no nasty surprises with the (inevitable) numbers that start emerging from the rest of the world.

 

[Dotini]

Great tip! Thankfully paper is one thing I don't think the USA will be short of. Really, we should be ok in terms of consumables, but if people aren't going to work...

For weeks we have been operating blind, with lack of functional tests for the virus. That has suddenly changed with the CDC finally getting its act together and distributing 10s of thousands of new test kits, with more to follow. Here, we now have 10 confirmed, two dead and many, many more being tested. New cases are certain to be found. Without question, the virus has been circulating here, hidden and unseen, for at least 6 weeks. OMFG

Has your governor issued a state of emergency declaration? Ours here in Washington has, and it instantly caused shelves to be cleared of the stuff mentioned above. Actually, stores were crowded the two days before the declaration.

We already have four schools and one fire station (all firefighters quarantined) closed. Gov. Inslee is talking more school closures, event cancellations, and official state spokespersons are talking "social distancing" and people just staying home. Airlines, buses, cabs, Uber, restaurants, retail businesses and on and on are going to be affected by reduced economic activity. Maybe central banks will step in to give Wall Street a boost of money, and maybe whoever the President is (or will be) will act under the Defense Production Act to reorder industrial production to all vitally needed products. Here, reality is rapidly changing in unknown ways.

snippet gives summary

But as the man remained in hospital isolation and then later returned home, officials reported no new cases in Washington state. They tested two dozen people over a span of five weeks, and all came back negative.

That changed this past week, when the state laboratory became able to test for the virus. Officials reported two new confirmed cases Friday night and then more, including the first patient to die of the virus in the United States. They are now working to trace how the cases in the state might be linked and who else might have been exposed.

Two cases have been detected at a skilled nursing facility in Kirkland, Washington, where officials said dozens of other people also had symptoms that could be a sign of coronavirus infection but could also be symptoms of flu.

Gov. Jay Inslee of Washington has declared a state of emergency and said officials may need to take steps like canceling sporting events and closing schools to slow the spread of the virus in the community.

Read more here: https://www.theolympian.com/news/state/washington/article240785976.html#storylink=cpy

https://www.boston.com/news/health/...s-may-have-spread-undetected-for-weeks-in-u-s

 

[baldgye]

As reported cases within Italy and the U.K. rapidly increase, some calm and reassurance from the British government...


Coronavirus outbreak could force UK to shut down entire cities, health secretary admits
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-uk-outbreak-city-shut-down-matt-hancock-interview-bbc-andrew-marr-a9366971.html?utm_source=reddit.com

Coronavirus: Widespread transmission in UK 'highly likely'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51700604

Widespread transmission of coronavirus in the UK is now "highly likely", Public Health England (PHE) has said.

 

[baldgye]

@Joey D @Chrunch Houston and anyone else who might feel the media are over sensationalising, I think this article might be worth a gander.

The main risk of the coronavirus outbreak isn’t that you’re going to get sick and die, it’s that so many people are going to get sick so quickly that our healthcare services and infrastructure are going to be completely overwhelmed.

https://medium.com/@amwren/forget-a...be-worried-about-the-coronavirus-890fbf9c4de6

I don't know how the US coverage is, but if the main take away is that people start using hand sanitises and wash their hands a lot more, it'll will help.

 

[TJ13]

So here in lovely Minnesota
Costco, Target and I think a few other stores are running out of supplies as the threat of COVID-19 is set to show up.
Making it harder for others that would need it like healthcare.

Secondly
CDC has reported that some of the coronavirus tests kits have been contaminated.
Also by the CDC that there will be more spread as hidden clusters start to show up.

 

[baldgye]

Boris Johnson's post-Cobra statement

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson spoke to BBC Political Editor Laura Kuenssberg after chairing an emergency Cobra meeting on the coronavirus outbreak.

He said that tomorrow the government will announce its plans to try to stem the spread of the disease, before releasing further details over the next few weeks.
"I think it's important to stress that this [the coronavirus] is a problem that is likely to become more significant for this country in the course of the next days and weeks, and therefore we will be making every possible preparation for that," he said.
"We've also agreed a plan so that as and when it starts to spread - as I'm afraid it looks likely that it will - we are in a position to take the steps that will be necessary, will be reasonable, to contain the spread of the disease as far as we can, and also to protect the most vulnerable."

Mr Johnson then said that "the single most useful thing we can all do to support our NHS, to stop the spread of the coronavirus, is to wash our hands - two times happy birthday, hot water and soap", and that people should otherwise consider things "business as usual".
The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends people wash their hands for the duration of the song "Happy Birthday", sung twice.
Asked about potential school closures and other measures to control the spread, Mr Johnson said they would take the lead of scientific advisers and the UK's chief medical officers.

 

[Joey D]

@Joey D @Chrunch Houston and anyone else who might feel the media are over sensationalising, I think this article might be worth a gander.


https://medium.com/@amwren/forget-a...be-worried-about-the-coronavirus-890fbf9c4de6

I don't know how the US coverage is, but if the main take away is that people start using hand sanitises and wash their hands a lot more, it'll will help.

I still think that's a bit presumptuous. We have no idea if large groups of people will get sick all at once or it'll be a steady flow of patients over the course of months. With the community transmissions in Washington and California, chances are thousands of people have come into contact with the pathogen. I haven't seen the latest figures for the number of people that have it in the US, but it's still incredibly low suggesting that people are either getting sick, but not sick enough to require medical attention, or their immune system fought it off successfully. Yes, there will be a certain percentage of misdiagnoses, but I'm not sure that really accounts for a significant portion.

Also, I'm not sure health care systems will be overrun. Most major ones are prepared for this and have several protocols in place in case of a community epidemic that requires large numbers of people to end up in the hospital. I've seen the one at the place I work at and it's pretty much thought of everything under the sun with pages and page of "what ifs" and how to manage them. While there are always things that crop up the weren't planned for, I feel pretty confident knowing that my local health systems have it under control. And where I work isn't unique either, I know others have similar plans and potentially even more robust plans.

What will get overrun are things like grocery stores, drug stores, etc. People will panic and will clear out these stores leaving few supplies available in the community. I already saw it this weekend at Target. I needed hand soap because I'm not grubby and wash my hands frequently. They were completely sold out and when I asked about it, the employee told me people were buying cases of it yesterday. Thankfully, Amazon still has it in stock so I ordered a case of it myself because I assume there will continue to be a run on it. Canned food was dwindled as well, along with medications. This is the real issue that's going to happen I think and it's actually fairly serious. If goods aren't there people will ramp up the panic even more.

And yes, washing your hands and using hand sanitizer will help and help quite a bit. I wish more people would do this since it's so simple. Maybe it's because I've worked in a hospital before, but I wash my hands at least 20 times a day, more if I'm not feeling well. While it does sound a bit excessive, spending 30 seconds to make sure I have clean hands seems worth it to me.

 

[baldgye]

We have no idea if large groups of people will get sick all at once or it'll be a steady flow of patients over the course of months.

I mean, we do. In Wuhan they literally had to build a hospital within a few days to try and cope, and yet despite this the death toll rose higher than in other regions less affected.

Most major ones are prepared

Is the NHS not a major heath care system?

 

[Touring Mars]

One of the more dangerous aspects of this virus is that it is apparently relatively benign in most people - which means loads more infected people going about their daily lives and acting as super-spreaders. I reckon it is only a matter of time until people are requested to minimize all social activity - including asking people to work remotely.

In totally unrelated news, I just bought a new laptop and two 3 litre boxes of wine.

The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends people wash their hands for the duration of the song "Happy Birthday", sung twice.

Is it just me or is this quite sinister/ironic...

 

[Milouse]

My own personal decision around CoV-19: my wife & daughter booked a 5 week trip to Europe about a week ago. Even if the direct health risks are not that great, the possibility of serious disruptions to travel may make it inadvisable to go.

I don't know when your trip is planned but the disturbance are already high in France. The Louvre employee has triggered their safety clause and stopped working, many events are canceled.

And yes, washing your hands and using hand sanitizer will help and help quite a bit

I wonder how usage of smartphone in the population should be factored in, regarding hand washing. Like using contaminated phone, washing hands, recontaminate them a few seconds laters with the phone...

 

[Rallywagon]

We had a "scare" here in Lansing, but it appears the person wasnt actually infected with Covid, just the flu.
Doesnt seem to be much panic in Michigan either. We stopped at Costco yesterday and picked up a few months worth of TP along with our normal bulk purchases just to avoid that shortage. The place didnt seem any more busy nor short on supplies. The state however, is anticipating the inevitable and we have boosted the speed of all our incoming data links and have prepared to issue more RSA tokens to accommodate more people working from home.
I think our real worry is my bro in law is getting married in Key West beginning of April, a time frame where I imagine the virus will be in full swing around the US. We are hoping it wont cause any disruptions to our plans for that week/weekend. Not gonna lie, it would be nice to take a vacation, then return and be forced to basically take another 2 week vacation.

 

[DesertPenguin]

The thing about the WHO telling people to wash their hands with Happy Birthday, it's like the mentality behind the nursery rhyme Ring Around The Roses. "Ashes, ashes, we all fall down". Something oddly morbid about all this.

 

[Joey D]

I mean, we do. In Wuhan they literally had to build a hospital within a few days to try and cope, and yet despite this the death toll rose higher than in other regions less affected.

It's still not really a good sample size, there are less than 100,000 known cases worldwide with only around 45,000 active cases. That's not even a blip. The article you posted talked about over 1 million people needing hospitalization in the UK, which very well could turn out to be true. But we haven't even had 10% of that number infected yet so we just don't know.

And I don't know what the health facilities are like in China or what their protocols are. I have no idea why they built the hospital, but looking at purely numbers there's not much for health systems around the world to worry about yet.

Is the NHS not a major heath care system?

I should probably say most major health systems in the US are prepared. I have no idea about the NHS because I don't pay attention to it or know much about it in terms of how it's run. I'm guessing its protocols are roughly the same as those in the US and its probably more prepared than you think.

I wonder how usage of smartphone in the population should be factored in, regarding hand washing. Like using contaminated phone, washing hands, recontaminate them a few seconds laters with the phone...

It definitely should be, smartphones as one of the dirtiest things we carry around. I wipe mine down pretty frequently with these medical-grade disinfectant wipes we have at work. If I go into the hospital for any reason, I also wipe it down too since god only knows what it picked up.

 

[TexRex]

The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends people wash their hands for the duration of the song "Happy Birthday", sung twice.

My name is just one syllable. Am I at greater risk because I will have washed my hands for less time than...say...a woman named Anastasia?

 

[BrainsBush]

In our direct neighborhood numbers increase rapidly. But live is like usual. No extra precautions or so.

There is also a list going around with a much higher number of infected people with the COVID19 virus in the Netherlands
Could be fake or is government holding back info and do they want to control how and when they communicate about these numbers?
For tomorrow an extra press conference scheduled by our Minister of Health

 

[Dotini]

In the Seattle suburb of Kirkland, a continuous stream of ambulances has been removing patients affected with severe respiratory symptoms from a skilled nursing facility. At least 4 are considered coronavirus cases and one is a fatality. 25 patients and 23 staff are thought to have potentially been infected. Visitors, including several dozen police, firefighters, visiting student nurses and others are either under quarantine or medical observation. A fire house and a nursing school have been shut for cleaning.

Washington State EM management is considering enforcing the following general or targeted measures:
- Involuntary quarantine
- Forced cancellation of large public and private gatherings
- Prohibition of non-emergency travel
- Forced closure of schools, child care centers and workplaces. We have about 13 schools closed at this moment.

These measures are said by the TV reporters to be legal.

The Governor and health officials will deliver announcement / press conference later today.

 

[Rallywagon]

- Involuntary quarantine

Dont know how legal that is, but I can say for certain that involuntary quarantine that is anything like they did in china, I dont imagine our citizenry taking it well and our Gov may find much, much stronger resistance than that seen in China.

 

[Biggles]

One key question: with most flus the outbreaks tend to multiply during the winter & decrease in the summer. Will Covid-19 follow this pattern? Would this mean that the rate of transmission would significantly slow down in the (northern hemisphere) in the coming months?

 

[baldgye]

Not being rude @Joey D but did you read the link?

 

[Dotini]

Dont know how legal that is, but I can say for certain that involuntary quarantine that is anything like they did in china, I dont imagine our citizenry taking it well and our Gov may find much, much stronger resistance than that seen in China.

We on the wet side of the mountains have become a docile breed. On the red-blooded east side of the mountains, you would undoubtedly be more correct.

One key question: with most flus the outbreaks tend to multiply during the winter & decrease in the summer. Will Covid-19 follow this pattern? Would this mean that the rate of transmission would significantly slow down in the (northern hemisphere) in the coming months?

That is an unknown, and must be discovered through experience.

 

[zzz_pt]

First two cases confirmed in Portugal (Porto, my city).

 

[Joey D]

Not being rude @Joey D but did you read the link?

Yes (or at least most of it because it wanted me to log in with my Google Account to continue) I just don't agree with what it's saying. I don't think the NHS is fragile, especially if it works as well as many Brits say it does. Yes, there's are 140,000 critical care bed and the article suggests around a million people will need care based on current numbers. It presumes that all of those people are going to get sick at the same time and that all of them will need to be admitted to the hospital.

It comes across as more fearmongering that there will be a shortage of healthcare services when, in fact, we don't know. As I said, I don't know how the NHS works, it's not really a concern of mine because I don't like in the UK. I can't imagine it's so poorly run that it would end up not being able to cope with a countrywide pandemic. Health systems plan for this sort of thing and I have to assume the NHS is no different.

Many hospitals often have the ability to convert rooms to house more patients if need be. When I worked inside a hospital, my office could be converted into an inpatient room since it had the hookups. Every hospital I've ever been in for work is the same way. So while there are 140,000 beds available in the UK right now, my hunch is they could easily expand it. I'm not sure what's up with the tent, but as I said, I can't imagine the NHS is so poorly equipped.

If I'm wrong and the NHS is that poorly equipped, it would really make me question the whole effectiveness of it.

 

[baldgye]

Yes (or at least most of it because it wanted me to log in with my Google Account to continue) I just don't agree with what it's saying. I don't think the NHS is fragile, especially if it works as well as many Brits say it does. Yes, there's are 140,000 critical care bed and the article suggests around a million people will need care based on current numbers. It presumes that all of those people are going to get sick at the same time and that all of them will need to be admitted to the hospital.

It comes across as more fearmongering that there will be a shortage of healthcare services when, in fact, we don't know. As I said, I don't know how the NHS works, it's not really a concern of mine because I don't like in the UK. I can't imagine it's so poorly run that it would end up not being able to cope with a countrywide pandemic. Health systems plan for this sort of thing and I have to assume the NHS is no different.

Many hospitals often have the ability to convert rooms to house more patients if need be. When I worked inside a hospital, my office could be converted into an inpatient room since it had the hookups. Every hospital I've ever been in for work is the same way. So while there are 140,000 beds available in the UK right now, my hunch is they could easily expand it. I'm not sure what's up with the tent, but as I said, I can't imagine the NHS is so poorly equipped.

If I'm wrong and the NHS is that poorly equipped, it would really make me question the whole effectiveness of it.

Okay.
I don’t think there is much to say then, the lad does supply links and evidence to support his arguments and conclusions. So kinda going over it without the same level of critical analysis is kinda meaningless?

Just thought it’s something worth bearing in mind. Obviously I can’t comment on the US but I can’t imagine that it’s too dissimilar to the situation in Europe.


I worry though, that labelling it as fear mongering belittles the seriousness of this virus. We have the Prime Minster and Health Secretary of one of the worlds biggest economies saying that they expect a major outbreak that could result in cities being locked down....