COVID-19/Coronavirus Information and Support Thread (see OP for useful links)
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Joey D
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That, in itself, seems a bit fearmongering too. Outside of China, the number of deaths are so low and there are so few cases, why in the world are we jumping to the idea of cities being locked down? That's absurd. Right now, given what we know, the protocol should be the same basic precautions as you take during the flu season. Could it get worse? Sure it could, but as of right now we are not a DEFCON-5.
- 29,370
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- GTP_Mars
It is more serious than flu right now because there is currently no vaccine, no immunity and no (specific) treatments available - and that means that even if it is not more potent than seasonal flu, it still poses a significantly higher risk to the public than seasonal flu does.
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There are, however, some pretty clear differences in what the virus actually does - and it also will have different properties to seasonal flu - that may make it more potent (i.e. more dangerous even if treatments, immunity and vaccines were comparable (which they are not)). The stats wrt to SARS-CoV-2 are still difficult to interpret, but the weight of evidence thus far is strongly in favour of the hypothesis that it is a fair bit worse than seasonal flu, but possibly not by a huge margin.
However, in the absence of evidence to show that it is indeed no worse that seasonal flu, the precautionary principle is a fairly good idea.
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There are, however, some pretty clear differences in what the virus actually does - and it also will have different properties to seasonal flu - that may make it more potent (i.e. more dangerous even if treatments, immunity and vaccines were comparable (which they are not)). The stats wrt to SARS-CoV-2 are still difficult to interpret, but the weight of evidence thus far is strongly in favour of the hypothesis that it is a fair bit worse than seasonal flu, but possibly not by a huge margin.
However, in the absence of evidence to show that it is indeed no worse that seasonal flu, the precautionary principle is a fairly good idea.
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It’s like pre-Brexit all over again with PROJECT FEAR... if you refuse to read and/or understand the science of what is happening, then I don’t see how I’m going to be able to convince you Do you even read the news or the links in this thread?
But please if you have done your own research into the numbers and figures, or have links that support the idea that this is nothing but the flu, I’m sure we’d all be happy to read them 👍
Danoff
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I was not aware that the flu vaccine covered all of the seasonal flu variants. I also do not assume that I am immune in any way to the latest mutation of flu. I might be wrong on that. How does it pose a higher risk given that flu has already killed 20-40k people in the US since October? I get that the numbers could be higher for coronavirus, but do we think they will be? How much higher? High enough to put it out of the range of the risk that flu poses?
Right this second, flu is more dangerous in the US.
Who are you talking to that doesn't understand science. And please cite examples that show that they do not.
Who are you talking to? Me? I'm basing my statements on mortality rate of coronavirus, and attempting to understand what the mortality rate will be in the US as compared to flu.
Joey D
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Yes and I work in the medical field so I get a ton of info thrown at me daily about the virus. It's not worth panicking about right now nor is it at a level that requires anyone to start planning for the end of the world or civilization. To think we're all doomed is absolutely asinine. If it gets worse, then I'll change my opinion on it, but right now people are way overreacting.
It doesn't and this year's vaccine missed the mark on Influenza A I believe so you're not really protected from it at all. The flu vaccine is based on a really educated guess to put it simply.
Danoff
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Yes, we are.
The trouble is that it can't be assumed that SARS-CoV-2 is 'just like flu', even if it turns out to be just so (though I suspect/hope it will be).
As such, my biggest fear is the impact of restrictions caused by the outbreak and not the virus itself - but that is assuming that it isn't actually significantly worse than, say, a new strain of flu (and when I say 'significant', I mean like an order of magnitude, and not a multiple of 2 or 3 for example).
Ironically though, we won't have an accurate assessment of just how dangerous the virus really is unless/until it has hit a lot of people.
That said though, there is a great deal of potential for misunderstanding about the statistics as they are, even if they were 100% credible and accurate, which they are not.
The trouble is that it can't be assumed that SARS-CoV-2 is 'just like flu', even if it turns out to be just so (though I suspect/hope it will be).
As such, my biggest fear is the impact of restrictions caused by the outbreak and not the virus itself - but that is assuming that it isn't actually significantly worse than, say, a new strain of flu (and when I say 'significant', I mean like an order of magnitude, and not a multiple of 2 or 3 for example).
Ironically though, we won't have an accurate assessment of just how dangerous the virus really is unless/until it has hit a lot of people.
That said though, there is a great deal of potential for misunderstanding about the statistics as they are, even if they were 100% credible and accurate, which they are not.
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I thought that the reason Covid-19 is more dangerous than "regular" flu is that the mortality rate is significantly higher & that it seems to be more easily spread? It's true that not many people have died so far, but as it spreads (which seems inevitable) that is likely to change. The choice is between making major attempts at containment which have significant immediate economic consequences, or allowing it to run its course, which will result in the deaths of millions, perhaps tens of millions of people?
i understand that at this point it is difficult to interpret the statical impact of the virus.
i understand that at this point it is difficult to interpret the statical impact of the virus.
I didn’t say it was, nor did the chap’s article I linked say that... only the continued narrative that chances are that if there is a serious outbreak in the U.K. it’ll be bad. Not because it’ll kill every living person, but because how it will clog the NHS up and limit people’s ability to work and travel.
The government themselves have said they’ll lock down cities and that not everyone will be able to be treated (due to funding rather than lack of beds).
That’s of course ignoring the cities/towns already locked down in Italy. So no one is ‘jumping on the idea of locking up cities’ because it’s already happening in Europe and the British government have said they’ll do it.
Danoff
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This is my biggest concern as well. And not just for for precautions regarding the virus itself, but also ulterior motives. Did Trump really need a hand-gifted excuse to close the southern border? If he wants to pull the trigger, this is all he needs to make it socially acceptable. Do we really want to hand our government an excuse to declare martial law during election season?
Honestly the fear ramifications of this virus could be absolutely profound. So far, the fear itself is causing a lot of damage, and is poised to cause a lot more. Which is why I'd like people to knock it off.
- 1,971
- Seattle, WA
Greeting from the US "epicenter", should I roll my eyes now or wait until later?
Several schools closed today, some in neighboring areas to me. Stores were busy yesterday, above average on my trip out, but my sister went to Costco and described it as "Thanksgiving and the day before Christmas- crowd levels combined". She didn't see any fights but people were irritable.
On top of all this fun, on Friday I was T-boned at about 30-35mph in my passenger side by a lady that ran a Red light. She pushed me into a 3rd vehicle that had a dash cam video of the whole thing, so it's a slam dunk case insurance-wise, but she admitted fault anyway to the responding officers. Side airbags on both sides deployed so the vehicle is certainly totaled.
I didn't want to go to the ER afterwards because of the COVID-19 and the Flu going around so I opted for the urgent care down the road from my house, which isn't really much better but probably the lesser of the evils. I'm sore but will be alright. I have an x-ray scheduled at the Chiropractor today.
Several schools closed today, some in neighboring areas to me. Stores were busy yesterday, above average on my trip out, but my sister went to Costco and described it as "Thanksgiving and the day before Christmas- crowd levels combined". She didn't see any fights but people were irritable.
On top of all this fun, on Friday I was T-boned at about 30-35mph in my passenger side by a lady that ran a Red light. She pushed me into a 3rd vehicle that had a dash cam video of the whole thing, so it's a slam dunk case insurance-wise, but she admitted fault anyway to the responding officers. Side airbags on both sides deployed so the vehicle is certainly totaled.
I didn't want to go to the ER afterwards because of the COVID-19 and the Flu going around so I opted for the urgent care down the road from my house, which isn't really much better but probably the lesser of the evils. I'm sore but will be alright. I have an x-ray scheduled at the Chiropractor today.
Dotini
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Right. This is the key observation and the key fear - that the health care infrastructure could be overwhelmed. The preliminary statistics seem to indicate 80% have mild effects and recover safely. And 20% require some degree of hospital care, with a fraction of that 20% requiring intensive care. If only a few hundred or few thousand more folks become infected, then not a problem and we are home free if not exactly laughing. But if the number of infected becomes large enough and the needy 20% cannot find the required care, then that is a problem.
Danoff
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For hospitalization to exceed 2018 flu levels, even at a 20% hospitalization rate, we'd need to see 4 million cases. Right this second there are... 90,000? worldwide. So magnify the worldwide total by a factor of 40 and put them all in the US.
I'm not saying it's not possible. Just trying to put this in context.
Dotini
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Did the WHO and the CDC monger fear by their public statements and warnings? Did the Governor of Washington State monger fear by declaring a state of emergency and warning of forced restrictions on travel, gatherings and business? Did the President make a mistake by banning travel to and from infected zones? Do you think it would be better for no one to say anything and merely allow the virus to burn through the population?
EDITS:
In King County we are now at 14 cases and 5 deaths. In neighboring Snohomish Country there are 4 more cases and one more death. At least 29 more critically ill suspected cases are being tested.
Our senior public health officials are already reporting a strain on the system.
County officials are seeking to rapidly expand quarantine facilities.
State labs are now testing 200/day, soon to be 1000+/day.
UW labs will soon be doing 200 tests/day, expanding to 1000+/day.
Departing thought:
We don't normally expect our professional health care professionals to become infected from flu care cases. But in the case of this novel virus, the infectivity is so severe that proportionately way too many health care professionals are becoming infected and dying.
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- 9,262
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In most cases this virus is no different from regular flu, it's the uncertainty and unpredictability that's the issue. We know it's highly contagious but we don't know if it may mutate into a more lethal or virulent strain or combine with something else (assuming that's possible). The severity of the illness is pretty benign in the grand scheme of things but it's manage to spread very rapidly round the world despite these extraordinary measures to contain it.
Despite being a germaphobe I haven't been any more concerned about it than most other people, I've almost seen the containment measures as a net positive as it indirectly prevents the spread of other viruses which I would rather avoid, but it's beginning to get out of hand with travel bans and events being cancelled left, right and centre. My primary concern at the moment is that my grandfather is on his deathbed in hospital, and my eldest uncle who lives in Australia may not be able to attend the funeral if further travel bans come through.
I'm confident that within the next few months it will fade out. Humanity is not going to be wiped out by something as mundane as a flu virus that we're currently throwing the full weight of 21st-century medicine at to stop.
Despite being a germaphobe I haven't been any more concerned about it than most other people, I've almost seen the containment measures as a net positive as it indirectly prevents the spread of other viruses which I would rather avoid, but it's beginning to get out of hand with travel bans and events being cancelled left, right and centre. My primary concern at the moment is that my grandfather is on his deathbed in hospital, and my eldest uncle who lives in Australia may not be able to attend the funeral if further travel bans come through.
I'm confident that within the next few months it will fade out. Humanity is not going to be wiped out by something as mundane as a flu virus that we're currently throwing the full weight of 21st-century medicine at to stop.
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Ok, I laughed, they got me.
I saw a free sample table at the store yesterday and thought about this very thing, I think they were giving away Pepperidge Farm Crackers or something....
I saw a free sample table at the store yesterday and thought about this very thing, I think they were giving away Pepperidge Farm Crackers or something....
Danoff
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What I'm saying is that spreading fear has its own cost, and can cause death, and great strain on our "system". I'm not saying that all precautions are inappropriate, but discussion of immobilizing cities is inappropriate. I would rather let the virus "burn" through the population than immobilize our cities. That will have an extreme cost, and kill people.
There are other measures that can be taken besides a travel ban, like testing. China nominally looks for fever at international checkpoints. I was checked for fever several times when traveling within China. Although I still managed to smuggle some giardia out in my daughter's intestines. I didn't realize I was doing that. When she tested positive for it here in the US, I got a call from someone whose job it was to follow up with infectious disease outbreaks. She was asking me where the giardia might have come from (that was easy to answer), and things like whether or not my daughter had been to public pools. I would never have realized that there was someone in my city following up with these kinds of diagnoses until I got that call.
I would rather hear that travelers to china must pay to be tested for coronavrius, even potentially quarantined, than to hear that it is banned. And people should be aware that procedures are already in place to track and control disease outbreaks. More than they may be aware of.
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The most thorough explanation of the current situation I have come across yet:
https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/coronavirus-covid-19-containment-who-1.5478766
These epidemiologists are saying that containment is impossible (although it can buy some time in preparation) & that the more realistic strategy is mitigation of the effects.
Keef
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There's a pretty decent military intelligence community about and rumor has it they're not shelving the idea that China gave up the ghost on their top secret genetic engineering/possibly bio-warfare experimental work in letting this disease leak out. In 2020, humans are pretty good at naturally occurring diseases, and we're also pretty good at genetic engineering. Unknown and unnamed diseases that no Western nation can easily counter don't magically pop up out of nowhere. Well, unless you're experimenting with things you shouldn't while simultaneously disrespecting internationally established safety standards. The WHO and CDC aren't the only people watching this. US military intelligence is on high alert too and they never even talked around it until we all found out about it in the news.
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Some of the more disturbing news/footage (albeit unverifiable, but likely genuine) from China suggests that their 'cure' could be almost as bad as the disease itself... starving people and denying access to services and healthcare is a very high risk strategy.
The worry, of course, is that the true danger(s) posed by the virus itself are being underestimated... but - that is still just a worry, and not proven fact.
Hopefully the responses in South Korea, Japan and Europe will give us a better angle on exactly what we are dealing with.
As for the cure being worse that the illness, I'm making a mega-chilli tonight with the idea of freezing it for future use incase supplies run low... that said, I'm probably more likely to die of asphyxiation from my own flatus than this virus outbreak. If I disappear from the forums in the coming days, someone please have my corpse tested for SARS-CoV-2 and methane poisoning... I know what my money's on.
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Coronaviruses are well known, and SARS-CoV-2 is not unnamed.
Yes, they do. (Well, it's not magic, and there is a source, usually a natural reservoir of a mammalian species...)Keef
Experimenting on what, bioweapons or vaccines? Not sure where the evidence of breaching any safety standards is either.Keef
Now this is a fair point - this cannot and should not be the responsibility of Daltrey and Townshend alone, though to be fair I'm pretty sure that Keith Moon and Thunderfingers would not have been much help to be perfectly honest.Keef
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Sounds very selfish but as long as we are still welcome end of March in Keswick 
==
Could this be true or is it a (bad) theory? --> There goes a story that ionisation can solve and reduce the (Corona)virus. It could be a (bad?) theory but scientists wanted to share this and (Dutch) authority RVD blocks any publication. Ionisators should be used in public buildings but they seem to interfere 5G networks. Other countries already use them with succes
(Dutch) Source
==
Could this be true or is it a (bad) theory? --> There goes a story that ionisation can solve and reduce the (Corona)virus. It could be a (bad?) theory but scientists wanted to share this and (Dutch) authority RVD blocks any publication. Ionisators should be used in public buildings but they seem to interfere 5G networks. Other countries already use them with succes
(Dutch) Source
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Are we certain it's
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