Estimate GT Sport sales

[Perkel]

I think it will get good review scores. It works in accordance with your average online reviewers opinion that "it's all about online" no matter all the evidence to suggest otherwise.

I don't see where you are coming from this.

GTS will be imminently compared to PC2 who recently came out which outfeatures GT on every front beside graphic and worse compared to FM7 which is like in completely another league and run away with content behind horizon.
Secondly despite online focus of GTS, GTS doesn't really look like game with robust online. Just racing game with online despite claims.

And that is assuming online will work on day1. IF something fails it will be butcher day for GTS.

 

[Johnnypenso]

Lets see:

FIFA 18 Switch: ~8310.
FIFA 18 Switch week 1 >= Project CARS 2 week 2

Pretending CARS 2 sold same as FIFA (which it didn't):

PCARS2 week 2 = 46% PCARS2 week 1
PCARS2 week 2 = 8.310
PCARS2 week 1 = 18.605

PCARS week 1 = 400% PCARS 2 week 1
PCARS week 1 = 74.420
PCARS week 1 = 35% PCARS life time
PCARS life time = 212.628

PCARS has sold 2.4mi (plus ~400k from free Xbox weekend).

So UK retail alone was ~9% of its total sales.

I think that belongs in the Estimate PCARS2 Sales Thread, wherever that is.

 

[Scaff]

Pretending CARS 2 sold same as FIFA (which it didn't):

Which no one has done.

Adding in that you assigned quotes from a press article to members of GT Planet, its not really the kind of conduct we would expect.

As such can you please start to base your posts on what members have actually said, not on what you wish to pretend they said.

 

[hejustsits]

I don't see where you are coming from this.

GTS will be imminently compared to PC2 who recently came out which outfeatures GT on every front beside graphic and worse compared to FM7 which is like in completely another league and run away with content behind horizon.
Secondly despite online focus of GTS, GTS doesn't really look like game with robust online. Just racing game with online despite claims.

And that is assuming online will work on day1. IF something fails it will be butcher day for GTS.

I think you're mixing your own opinions about the game too heavily into the opinions of the gaming public at large.

It's got a big FIA badge on it, just like how FIFA has (as the name suggests) FIFA licensing, meaning it has the strongest links to actual motorsport of all the major racing games, it has a series of race drivers who turned pro through being good at the game, the trailers and screenshots are the most realistic most people have ever seen, it's got the historically strong reputation of the GT series, the livery editor which has been called the best so far, it's made by Sony so it has one of the world's biggest electronics companies backing it, the list goes on.

In terms of being viewed as 'the official car racing game' it has a hell of a lot going for it that it's competitors can't claim to have.

It's worth bearing in mind also, that whilst car count and track count are very important to us hardcore racing game fans, the average casual gamer probably won't race in more than about 20 to 30 cars before moving on to other games, and beyond flashy cars like Ferraris, Porsches & Astons they really aren't that bothered about what specific cars made the cut or not. These people probably account for 80%+ of GT buyers. The make or break features of the game for you and me are not the make or break features of the game to most gamers.

 

[marcvic]

Like what?

For me, I'm most excited about digging into the off-track experience (although the on-track experience looks superb).

That includes:

- The museum pieces
- The pic upload for the livery editor
- The exclusive manufacturer's movies
- The hundreds of photo scapes (which includes manufacturer locales)
- The running manufacturer/nations cups
- Running daily events
- Campaign mode (even if they're viewed by some as glorified license tests
- VGT

These are all things that I'm really looking forward to experiencing in GTS. I know some aren't interested in them, but as a car fan, these features really adds to the experience I want from a car game. I'm well aware of the traditional career mode being gone, but am curious if they'll implement any type of seasonal events.

Even still, as a place to enjoy and digest information about cars, there is nothing else like it. It holds a very unique position in the sim-racing market.

 

[Imari]

It's got a big FIA badge on it, just like how FIFA has (as the name suggests) FIFA licensing, meaning it has the strongest links to actual motorsport of all the major racing games, it has a series of race drivers who turned pro through being good at the game, the trailers and screenshots are the most realistic most people have ever seen, it's got the historically strong reputation of the GT series, the livery editor which has been called the best so far, it's made by Sony so it has one of the world's biggest electronics companies backing it, the list goes on.

You notice how the only thing in that list that has anything to do with gameplay is the livery editor?

I guess it depends how much you believe that people will buy something based on name and branding alone, and how much you believe that they actually want a good game.

 

[cutmeamango]

Which no one has done.

Adding in that you assigned quotes from a press article to members of GT Planet, its not really the kind of conduct we would expect.

As such can you please start to base your posts on what members have actually said, not on what you wish to pretend they said.

WHICH NO ONE HAS DONE.

Ok, as long as you know.

 

[ImaRobot]

For me, I'm most excited about digging into the off-track experience (although the on-track experience looks superb).

That includes:

- The museum pieces
- The pic upload for the livery editor
- The exclusive manufacturer's movies
- The hundreds of photo scapes (which includes manufacturer locales)
- The running manufacturer/nations cups
- Running daily events
- Campaign mode (even if they're viewed by some as glorified license tests)

These are all things that I'm really looking forward to experiencing in GTS. I know some aren't interested in them, but as a car fan, these features really adds to the experience I want from a car game. I'm well aware of the traditional career mode being gone, but am curious if they'll implement any type of seasonal events.

Even still, as a place to enjoy and digest information about cars, there is nothing else like it.

That's fine, those all sound like fun things to do. However, it doesn't answer the question.

 

[marcvic]

That's fine, those all sound like fun things to do. However, it doesn't answer the question.

IIRC the claim was that GTS has stuff that other games can't claim. You asked for examples.

 

[SlipZtrEm]

the livery editor which has been called the best so far

We should probably wait until it's actually in our hands before making such a claim. From what I've seen of it, it looks better than some of the editors out there in certain ways, and worse in others. There's a lot of potential, however; I know it's a feature I'm very much looking forward to!

It's worth bearing in mind also, that whilst car count and track count are very important to us hardcore racing game fans, the average casual gamer probably won't race in more than about 20 to 30 cars before moving on to other games, and beyond flashy cars like Ferraris, Porsches & Astons they really aren't that bothered about what specific cars made the cut or not. These people probably account for 80%+ of GT buyers. The make or break features of the game for you and me are not the make or break features of the game to most gamers.

There's a lot of assumptions there. Yeah, a good chunk of people will probably be looking at the big names. And yep, most people probably won't try most of the cars (there's a trophy stat about GT6 relating to that).

But a larger car/track count means a game will appeal to more people, more of the time. We all have our preferences and favourites in terms of specific car models; a game with 500 cars is statistically more likely to satisfy more of those preferences than a game with 100, all other things being equal.

 

[hejustsits]

You notice how the only thing in that list that has anything to do with gameplay is the livery editor?

I guess it depends how much you believe that people will buy something based on name and branding alone, and how much you believe that they actually want a good game.

I and many many others would say graphics are one of the key aspects, if not the key aspect, of the gameplay experience, particularly for 'simulator' style games. If it wasn't we would never have moved beyond the PS1, but we have.

And going back to the FIFA example, official accreditation for a game, or any product for that matter, has strong connotations to the customer about what they can expect from said product, so in terms of game sales it certainly will make at least some difference.

And 'good game' is a subjective thing so that doesn't come into it. I take it from your use of the term that you don't think GT Sport is or will be a good game, however the only opinion that matters to casual players will be that of the reviewers, not yours or mine.

We should probably wait until it's actually in our hands before making such a claim. From what I've seen of it, it looks better than some of the editors out there in certain ways, and worse in others. There's a lot of potential, however; I know it's a feature I'm very much looking forward to!



There's a lot of assumptions there. Yeah, a good chunk of people will probably be looking at the big names. And yep, most people probably won't try most of the cars (there's a trophy stat about GT6 relating to that).

But a larger car/track count means a game will appeal to more people, more of the time. We all have our preferences and favourites in terms of specific car models; a game with 500 cars is statistically more likely to satisfy more of those preferences than a game with 100, all other things being equal.

True and true.

 

[ImaRobot]

- The museum pieces
- The pic upload for the livery editor
- The exclusive manufacturer's movies
- The hundreds of photo scapes (which includes manufacturer locales)
- The running manufacturer/nations cups
- Running daily events
- Campaign mode (even if they're viewed by some as glorified license tests
- VGT

In terms of being viewed as 'the official car racing game' it has a hell of a lot going for it that it's competitors can't claim to have.

So, when he says it has a lot going for it that other games can't even claim to have, it just boils down Museum pieces, and Manufacturer movies?

Of the three games, Pcars2 is the only one without a livery editor. Forza has one that is top notch right now, as it sits. GT has the possibility to one up everyone, but that depends entirely on the importing feature. If they can show us that with absolutely minimal restriction, than it will be the best. Either way, this is an aspect that the competition has, so it's not really part of the list.

Each game has a photomode, scapes are a part of that. How each game mode goes about it is different, but the competition can still very much claim a prominent photomode within their games. GTS has a ton of scapes, but they're restricted. Pcars has a ton of tracks that they can use for photomode opportunities, but doesn't have staged settings like GTS does. Forza probably has the least opportunity here, but Forza vista at every track is something that the competition doesn't have. They all have their plus's on this side of the fence, but again, it's something prominent in all of the top 3.

Manufacturers Cup/Nation Cups can very well work like spec races. That they have a certain restrictions within their guidelines for a certain race isn't any plus over any other game. Each game will have their own restricted events with a ruling system.

Campaign mode. There is no reason to go into detail about this. The top 3 have it so far, and to a much more prominent degree than GTS.

Like I said, it's fine that you want to do those things, I do too, but it didn't answer the question about what makes it the 'official driving game' nor did it really show that its doing things that the competition can't even claim to be doing.

 

[hejustsits]

So, when he says it has a lot going for it that other games can't even claim to have, it just boils down Museum pieces, and Manufacturer movies

Of the three games, Pcars2 is the only one without a livery editor. Forza has one that is top notch right now, as it sits. GT has the possibility to one up everyone, but that depends entirely on the importing feature. If they can show us that with absolutely minimal restriction, than it will be the best. Either way, this is an aspect that the competition has, so it's not really part of the list.

Each game has a photomode, scapes are a part of that. How each game mode goes about it is different, but the competition can still very much claim a prominent photomode within their games. GTS has a ton of scapes, but they're restricted. Pcars has a ton of tracks that they can use for photomode opportunities, but doesn't have staged settings like GTS does. Forza probably has the least opportunity here, but Forza vista at every track is something that the competition doesn't have. They all have their plus's on this side of the fence, but again, it's something prominent in all of the top 3.

Manufacturers Cup/Nation Cups can very well work like spec races. That they have a certain restrictions within their guidelines for a certain race isn't any plus over any other game. Each game will have their own restricted events with a ruling system.

Campaign mode. There is no reason to go into detail about this. The top 3 have it so far, and to a much more prominent degree than GTS.

Like I said, it's fine that you want to do those things, I do too, but it didn't answer the question about what makes it the 'official driving game' nor did it really show that its doing things that the competition can't even claim to be doing.

Why are you quoting what somebody else said as if it was the evidence that I'd used to back up my point? Which you'd find if you scroll back up to my comment? You quoted me earlier, I replied by reiterating what was in my original comment, and both comments were deleted. I can't really respond to this new form of communication.

 

[Scaff]

I and many many others would say graphics are one of the key aspects, if not the key aspect, of the gameplay experience, particularly for 'simulator' style games. If it wasn't we would never have moved beyond the PS1, but we have.

I would have to disagree with that.

If you look at racing sims as a whole then graphics have never, aside from two titles, been the key aspect.

Forza and GT have always put a high premium on graphics, as it without a doubt draws in the mainstream buyers (nothing wrong with that - titles need those sales). However once you look outside that it just doesn't stack up; LFS, AC, iRacing RF2, SLRE, the list goes on, they all resign graphics to a lower status to allow the physics engine to be optomised.

The key aspect of a sim is physics.

Yes it looking good enough is a factor, but good enough is enough for most of the sims on the market.

 

[ImaRobot]

Why are you quoting what somebody else said as if it was the evidence that I'd used to back up my point? Which you'd find if you scroll back up to my comment? You quoted me earlier, I replied by reiterating what was in my original comment, and both comments were deleted. I can't really respond to this new form of communication.

What?

 

[hejustsits]

I would have to disagree with that.

If you look at racing sims as a whole then graphics have never, aside from two titles, been the key aspect.

Forza and GT have always put a high premium on graphics, as it without a doubht draws in the mainstream buyers (nothing wron with that - titles need those sales). However once you look outside that it just doesn't stack up; LFS, AC, iRacing RF2, SLRE, the list goes on, they all resign graphics to a lower status to allow the physics engine to be optomised.

The key aspect of a sim is physics.

Yes it looking good enough is a factor, but good enough is enough for most of the sims on the market.

As a console gamer (and a non-driver, who wouldn't be able to pick apart the realism of the physics to the same degree as somebody who takes part in motorsport) I find that graphics are the strongest contributing factor to me in making a game immersive, which I'd say (once again, as a non-driver) are what simulators are all about, at least for me.

What?

You quoted me, but what you wrote seemed to have nothing to do with what I'd written and everything to do with what the previous person had written.
You also quoted me earlier, saying "like what?" underneath said quote, I responded to it, and then mine and your comments both disappeared, although that could have just been a gtp glitch.

My point is, the sentence you're quoting me on means little if you don't also quote the evidence I put forth just above it.

You quoted me on this:

In terms of being viewed as 'the official car racing game' it has a hell of a lot going for it that it's competitors can't claim to have.

Rather than this:

It's got a big FIA badge on it, just like how FIFA has (as the name suggests) FIFA licensing, meaning it has the strongest links to actual motorsport of all the major racing games, it has a series of race drivers who turned pro through being good at the game, the trailers and screenshots are the most realistic most people have ever seen, it's got the historically strong reputation of the GT series, the livery editor which has been called the best so far, it's made by Sony so it has one of the world's biggest electronics companies backing it, the list goes on.

In terms of being viewed as 'the official car racing game' it has a hell of a lot going for it that it's competitors can't claim to have.

 

[hejustsits]

EDIT: Double post, my bad.

 

[AH49]

Some Amazon stats.

 

[ImaRobot]

You quoted me, but what you wrote seemed to have nothing to do with what I'd written and everything to do with what the previous person had written.

Because our conversation stemmed from what you said, that's why I quoted you.

You also quoted me earlier, saying "like what?" underneath said quote, I responded to it, and then mine and your comments both disappeared, although that could have just been a gtp glitch.

No, they got deleted.

My point is, the sentence you're quoting me on means little if you don't also quote the evidence I put forth just above it.

You quoted me on this:
Rather than this:

The only thing in that list to contributes to the actual game is the Livery editor. Even then, this is not the only game with a livery editor, the competition very much has that.

 

[hejustsits]

Because our conversation stemmed from what you said, that's why I quoted you.


No, they got deleted.


The only thing in that list to contributes to the actual game is the Livery editor. Even then, this is not the only game with a livery editor, the competition very much has that.

I listed aspects that could cause GTS to 'be viewed as the official car racing game' more than it's rivals, and everything I listed contributed to that perception. Sales aren't about what a game is necessarily, but what it is perceived as being. That's the nature of sales/advertising/capitalism etc. etc.

 

[Scaff]

As a console gamer (and a non-driver, who wouldn't be able to pick apart the realism of the physics to the same degree as somebody who takes part in motorsport) I find that graphics are the strongest contributing factor to me in making a game immersive, which I'd say (once again, as a non-driver) are what simulators are all about, at least for me.

I'm the opposite, I drive, I work in the motor industry, I have a sim racing youtube channel and I have spent far too much on my rig (don't tell my wife).

The key aspect in a sim for me is the physics engine, with track accuracy (surface detail in particular), audio and then graphics. However I can live with the last two not being great if the first two are great (which is why I love Seb Loeb Rally Evo).

I am however well aware that I am not the core buying market for the likes of the GT series (I do however own every title in the series), they fill a different need for me, as GTS is going to look great for youtube work and comparison videos.

Which is why in part I personally am unsure if PD have got it right with GTS, racing titles (sim or not) do not see large numbers go on-line (10% on average try it, 5% on average stick with it), with the career mode being the draw for a period of time. They also seem to fail to keep the average buyer engaged over the long term (less than 50% of GT5 owners had more that 10 cars).

As such GTS seems to be targeting the 5%, with a much reduced draw for the 95%. However the 5% tend to be more of the sim mindset and its a concern if the physics will be deep enough to keep that focus.

I personally hope that GTS gets it right and the blend between the physics and the on-line structure is enough to buck the trend of online (as PC2 is currently managing to do with 17% of people trying it), as it would be good for the sim racing community as a whole.

Who know it may well be enough to make it a gateway drug to get people hooked.

I listed aspects that could cause GTS to 'be viewed as the official car racing game' more than it's rivals, and everything I listed contributed to that perception. Sales aren't about what a game is necessarily, but what it is perceived as being. That's the nature of sales/advertising/capitalism etc. etc.

The problem with that is the FIA simply doesn't have the draw and public recognition that say FIFA does.

The market already has official products for F1 and the WRC, those are the big two that get the mainstream attention and do so right on the front cover. GTS doesn't even mention the FIA on the front cover.

 

[hejustsits]

I'm the opposite, I drive, I work in the motor industry, I have a sim racing youtube channel and I have spent far too much on my rig (don't tell my wife).

The key aspect in a sim for me is the physics engine, with track accuracy (surface detail in particular), audio and then graphics. However I can live with the last two not being great if the first two are great (which is why I love Seb Loeb Rally Evo).

I am however well aware that I am not the core buying market for the likes of the GT series (I do however own every title in the series), they fill a different need for me, as GTS is going to look great for youtube work and comparison videos.

Which is why in part I personally am unsure if PD have got it right with GTS, racing titles (sim or not) do not see large numbers go on-line (10% on average try it, 5% on average stick with it), with the career mode being the draw for a period of time. They also seem to fail to keep the average buyer engaged over the long term (less than 50% of GT5 owners had more that 10 cars).

As such GTS seems to be targeting the 5%, with a much reduced draw for the 95%. However the 5% tend to be more of the sim mindset and its a concern if the physics will be deep enough to keep that focus.

I personally hope that GTS gets it right and the blend between the physics and the on-line structure is enough to buck the trend of online (as PC2 is currently managing to do with 17% of people trying it), as it would be good for the sim racing community as a whole.

Who know it may well be enough to make it a gateway drug to get people hooked.

I have to say I don't know if the route they're taking is the best for them either, I never went online on GT5 and only went online on GT6 in the last 6 months of my playing the game, but I know from having seen the thrill of online racing that if everything works right off the bat, and the races pit you against similar competition, then they could be on to a winner.

One thing I think they really need to get right is striking a balance between a casual racing experience i.e. (quick-mode) and a more in-depth engaging championship-style experience. On one side of things, it has to have something to offer the casuals feel who will want to be able to jump into as a race a la rocket league, and maybe take part in 2 or three races over the space of twenty minutes, but on the other side it has to appeal to the likes of you and I, who will want to have a Practice/Qualifying/Race format, with longer races and stricter adherence to track regulations.

If they can do that, then the sky's the limit, but while alienating the likes of you and me through a lack of proper simulation style racing would be disappointing, if they get the other side of it wrong, and fail to make a game that you can start up and jump into a race on within a few minutes, it could cause them a lot more trouble, in terms of reviews, sales and reputation.

 

[ImaRobot]

I listed aspects that could cause GTS to 'be viewed as the official car racing game' more than it's rivals, and everything I listed contributed to that perception. Sales aren't about what a game is necessarily, but what it is perceived as being. That's the nature of sales/advertising/capitalism etc. etc.

You also said

it has a hell of a lot going for it that it's competitors can't claim to have.

All of what you listed doesn't really contribute to the actual game in any way, besides the livery editor. If you didn't actually mean things within the actual game, that affects how we play it, than you have a point.

 

[hejustsits]

You also said



All of what you listed doesn't really contribute to the actual game in any way, besides the livery editor. If you didn't actually mean things within the actual game, that affects how we play it, than you have a point.

I see! I didn't mean things in the game, just things on the box and in the adverts that might boost its sales. Glad we understand each other now.

 

[Tired Tyres]

As a console gamer (and a non-driver, who wouldn't be able to pick apart the realism of the physics to the same degree as somebody who takes part in motorsport) I find that graphics are the strongest contributing factor to me in making a game immersive, which I'd say (once again, as a non-driver) are what simulators are all about, at least for me.

I find, as a console player, that the sole purpose of great graphics are to attract your attention in the first instance. Once I start playing I don't notice them again. Gameplay, in the case of a sim, physics, take over. I could switch from the GTS beta to Assetto Corso and back again with ease.

 

[AH49]

For me Gran Turismo is all about a great sim experience on the controller. Even when I've had a wheel, I'm not always in the mood to use it. Presentation and polish has always been the icing on the cake, but it's increasingly important as I'm now big into photomode.

 

[GBO Possum]

For me Gran Turismo is all about a great sim experience on the controller. Even when I've had a wheel, I'm not always in the mood to use it. Presentation and polish has always been the icing on the cake, but it's increasingly important as I'm now big into photomode.

I share your photomode passion.

I'll be looking at just how many replays GT Sport can save, since they are the source of material for photos. PCars 2 on PS4 has a limit of 1 GB of saved game data which, for me, limited me to 11 saved replays. And Forza 6 has a hard-wired limit of 10 saved replays. These two experiences make me nervous that such limitations might be contagious

 

[sems4arsenal]

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1444118

September digital sales. Top 20 in the US was tough to crack but PCARS 2 not being in the Top 20 EU is a surprise. *

*8 days of tracking. I also didn't make the list.

Would also like to say that PCARS 2 might have sold seven billion copies in Germany. That way I won't be accused of having a hidden agenda I think

 

[Scaff]

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1444118

September digital sales. Top 20 in the US was tough to crack but PCARS 2 not being in the Top 20 EU is a surprise. *

*8 days of tracking. I also didn't make the list.

Would also like to say that PCARS 2 might have sold seven billion copies in Germany. That way I won't be accused of having a hidden agenda I think

And that has what to do with GTS?

The obsession with PC2 figures has gone on quite long enough, if you wise to discuss them please take it to a PC2 sub forum.

 

[Johnnypenso]

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1444118

September digital sales. Top 20 in the US was tough to crack but PCARS 2 not being in the Top 20 EU is a surprise. *

*8 days of tracking. I also didn't make the list.

Would also like to say that PCARS 2 might have sold seven billion copies in Germany. That way I won't be accused of having a hidden agenda I think

Your agenda is pretty obvious now especially since you continue trying to estimate the sales of a game that is not Gran Turismo in the Gran Turismo sales estimate thread.