Estimate GT Sport sales

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How many copies will GT Sport sell?


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And that has what to do with GTS?

The obsession with PC2 figures has gone on quite long enough, if you wise to discuss them please take it to a PC2 sub forum.

Your agenda is pretty obvious now especially since you continue trying to estimate the sales of a game that is not Gran Turismo in the Gran Turismo sales estimate thread.

Direct competitor sales are surely a factor, are they not?

The whole debate started because of the PCARS will take attention/customers away from GTSport theory. The fact it isn't selling well negates that theory for a bit.

@Johnnypenso It's getting boring you accusing other members of having an agenda.
 
Direct competitor sales are surely a factor, are they not?

The whole debate started because of the PCARS will take attention/customers away from GTSport theory. The fact it isn't selling well negates that theory for a bit.
If you actually referenced GTS at all you might have a point, however that repeatedly doesn't happen.

As such until we do have some GTS figures for comparison the constant PC2 posts can go to the threads and subforums they belong in.
 
If you actually referenced GTS at all you might have a point, however that repeatedly doesn't happen.

As such until we do have some GTS figures for comparison the constant PC2 posts can go to the threads and subforums they belong in.

Most of the posts here (including mine) post comparisons with other racing games. How can I reference GTS when it hasn't released?

I'm waiting for next week's FM7 numbers as well to compare (I also referenced FH3 and F1 2017). If we can't talk about sales of other racing games then fair enough.
 
Forza does relatively well in the UK, while Gran Turismo underperforms in the US, relative to other markets. So it's interesting to see current Amazon charts for the UK & US. Of course also take into account PCars 2 has been out for 2 weeks, it's FM7's launch week, and GT Sport is 2 weeks until release.

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I and many many others would say graphics are one of the key aspects, if not the key aspect, of the gameplay experience, particularly for 'simulator' style games. If it wasn't we would never have moved beyond the PS1, but we have.

You list said trailers and screenshots. Not graphics. Not gameplay. Graphics can enhance gameplay, more or less so depending on the genre, but they're not key. There's plenty of games out there with mediocre graphics (intentionally so or not) that are great experiences.

You were largely talking about marketing, and good marketing does not a good game make.

And going back to the FIFA example, official accreditation for a game, or any product for that matter, has strong connotations to the customer about what they can expect from said product, so in terms of game sales it certainly will make at least some difference.

Reading anything into the quality of a game from it's accreditation by a real world sanctioning body would be a mistake on the part of the consumer, but you're correct that people do tend to do it.

However, basing your sales on people misinterpreting the marketing material doesn't seem like a brilliant strategy. I'd say actually being a quality product would be more valuable in the long term than implying quality through association.

And 'good game' is a subjective thing so that doesn't come into it. I take it from your use of the term that you don't think GT Sport is or will be a good game, however the only opinion that matters to casual players will be that of the reviewers, not yours or mine.

Being a good game comes into it exactly because it's subjective. Each individual wants something that is to them a "good game", or at least that's what I believe. What that means may be different for each, but developers absolutely try to design their games to appeal to as broad a market as they can so that more people would think "hmm, sounds interesting" before purchase and "damn, I'm glad I bought that" after purchase.

As far as what GTS will be, from what I've seen so far I'm not hopeful about it's chances. It seems like a very well produced but very limited game in a very niche space, with a non-trivial amount of competition from games which on paper are at least viable rivals.

None of us know what GTS is, because it's not a finished game yet.

As far as reviews mattering, reviewers tend to rank niche games lower simply because they're niche. iRacing is the best online sim racing experience bar none and has been for years. It's only in the last couple of years that there's even been games that moderately compete in the space.

iRacing on Metacritic has a 79.

Regardless of how good an iRacing style game is, it's largely impossible for it to score in the 90s simply because the market for such a game is so limited. Reviewers take that into account.
 
Some context before GT Sport's release.

Forza 7 debuted with under 30K, it was 22% lower than Forza 6, and 60% lower than Horizon 3.

http://www.mcvuk.com/news/read/fifa-18-stays-top-while-forza-motorsport-7-fails-to-impress/0187983

And Bruno MB from NeoGAF provided 1st week numbers in the UK for most GT titles:

Gran Turismo 1 - 44,000
Gran Turismo 2 - 115,000
Gran Turismo 3 - 74,000
Gran Turismo 4 - 253,000
Gran Turismo 5 Prologue - 108,000
Gran Turismo 5 - 269,000
Gran Turismo 6 - 55,000
 
And Bruno MB from NeoGAF provided 1st week numbers in the UK for most GT titles:

Gran Turismo 1 - 44,000
Gran Turismo 2 - 115,000
Gran Turismo 3 - 74,000
Gran Turismo 4 - 253,000
Gran Turismo 5 Prologue - 108,000
Gran Turismo 5 - 269,000
Gran Turismo 6 - 55,000
Assuming the accuracy of those numbers, therein lies your evidence that you can't rely on early partial sales numbers to make accurate predictions. GT6 sold a little more than 20% of GT5 in the first week yet came close to selling 50% in the end. Had one made the same type of prediction for GT6 in the first week that some are want to do about PCARS2, they would ultimately have been wrong by 250% on the short side.

Making predictions on such severely limited and partial data is foolish in the extreme. Only someone with an agenda would continue to push the relevancy of irrelevant sales data.
 
They are basically forcing you to get digital version. :odd: So it will be more difficult to know the numbers. It is same for every game but most people will definitely download the timed demo and probably end of purchasing the digital version.
 
Some more context, the best selling Forza was Forza 4 with 104,000. Forza Motorsport seems to be on a decline eversince in the UK to the know disappointing <30,000.
 
Some more context, the best selling Forza was Forza 4 with 104,000. Forza Motorsport seems to be on a decline eversince in the UK to the know disappointing <30,000.
Hoe many digital downloads were there for Forza 4?
 
People hide behind digital thinking its some saviour. Digital really picked up with the current gen but once again its not going to save massive declines. Right now its 30%-40% (including PC sales).
 
People hide behind digital thinking its some saviour. Digital really picked up with the current gen but once again its not going to save massive declines. Right now its 30%-40% (including PC sales).
Hiding behind digital sales like it's a saviour? Saviour for what? What does this even mean?

Can you explain the discrepancy I noted above in GT6 vs. GT5 early sales compared to the end results?
 
According to YSO Japan (through GAF members), GTS first week in Japan should be below GT6.
GT6 sold 204k (590k LTD) in its first week, with GTS' predictions averaging 185k.
For reference, GT5's first week in Japan was 430k (800k LTD).
 
According to YSO Japan (through GAF members), GTS first week in Japan should be below GT6.
GT6 sold 204k (590k LTD) in its first week, with GTS' predictions averaging 185k.
For reference, GT5's first week in Japan was 430k (800k LTD).

Mostly like going be tie with GT6 number.
 
I suspect the game might sell relatively soft at launch, due to the negative stigma that's attatched to the GT franchise, but it's going to have a very long tail if they support it properly.
 
So, on Amazon UK...

GT Sport is currently 3rd (steelbook) and 5th (normal game) on the best sellers list. The steelbook is behind Super Mario Odyssey and FIFA 18 for PS4, and the normal game is behind FIFA 18 for the Xbox One.

Considering FIFA sells bucketloads in the UK, I feel like that’s pretty promising. Odyssey is self explanatory on why it’s currently 1st.

For context, Forza 7 is 19th on the best sellers list, and Project Cars 2 isn’t in the Top 100.

EDIT: Amazon USA has Odyssey in 1st, South Park in 7th, and GTS (Day One)10th. Everything between 1st and 8th is a PSN card (excluding SP), and 9th is the Nintendo Switch. The normal release of GTS is 32nd (again due to all of the PSN/Nintendo/Xbox cards counting as games) Again, somewhat promising.

Neither Forza 7, or Project Cars 2 are in the Top 100.
 
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According to YSO Japan (through GAF members), GTS first week in Japan should be below GT6.
GT6 sold 204k (590k LTD) in its first week, with GTS' predictions averaging 185k.
For reference, GT5's first week in Japan was 430k (800k LTD).

On par with GT6 is a bit of a let down I think. Granted things in Japan aren't very rosy (unless for the Switch). Still not too bad.
 
I don't think the glory days of old will ever be reached again, for the simple reason that there's a lot more competition out now (not only racing games, other genres as well for the average Joe without a wheel) and digital downloads.

I used to be a physical dude for all my multimedia (music, movies, games) for a long time and for both games and music I already prefer digital for a while. For movies I still prefer a Blu-Ray disk since AFAIK that is still less compressed than digital downloads.
 
Assuming the accuracy of those numbers, therein lies your evidence that you can't rely on early partial sales numbers to make accurate predictions. GT6 sold a little more than 20% of GT5 in the first week yet came close to selling 50% in the end. Had one made the same type of prediction for GT6 in the first week that some are want to do about PCARS2, they would ultimately have been wrong by 250% on the short side.

Making predictions on such severely limited and partial data is foolish in the extreme. Only someone with an agenda would continue to push the relevancy of irrelevant sales data.
GT6 was only sold at full price for a handful of months. It was half price early in the new year and has pretty much stayed that way, or less in sales, ever since.
 
On par with GT6 is a bit of a let down I think. Granted things in Japan aren't very rosy (unless for the Switch). Still not too bad.
PS4 was still months away from release when GT6 launched in Japan and has traditionally been a nation who slowly transitions to new hardware. Digital wasn't much of a factor back then yet is 15%-25% of current PS4 software sales in Japan.

Looking at various charts in the UK, Europe and US it's a fairly safe bet to say GT Sport launch week sales will be higher than GT6. Back in the day I was toying with the idea of buying a PS3 just for GT6 (after buying a PS4) and recall GT6 barely breaking the top 20 on Amazon UK. That's quite a few years ago of course and it sold around 55k launch week. I think GT Sport will do anywhere from 80k-120k. The demo went down well and I know from personal experience turned many who where on the fence into day one buyers.
 
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Second week in the UK for Forza 7 see's sales down 63% (approx. 12k). That's a pretty standard drop for a full-priced AAA.
 
Japan has been experiencing a decline in home console hardware and software since PS1. GTS not declining there is pretty good, and it could even do better with digital. Anyway that region is very different to overseas.
 
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