Estimate GT Sport sales
- Thread starter Earth
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- England
Oh....
So where is the hard, complete data you based your original thread post off? You're going to have to point it out to me because I bet even unicorns and the tooth fairy would distance themselves from that hack site.
Tired Tyres
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In one country. For a mid week release, when Friday is normal release day.
If you release on a Friday you calculate sales the following Friday. If you release before Friday sales are calculated on the first Friday after release day. That's 4 days for a Tuesday launch and 8 days for a Friday launch. If they launched PC1 on a Tuesday then yes, 74% drop. If not then it isn't.
- 479
- United Kingdom
We'll wait a little longer on the PCars2 figures.. You can play around with them all you like, but it would appear to have had a slow start.
I think quite a few people may have held off buying anything to see what each game turns out like on release, for those, the GTS demo will be interesting.
I also suspect that many people will buy more than one racing game, maybe buying one in October and getting another for Christmas or even waiting for sales in the new year - buying with vouchers received at Christmas ? Instead of big sales up front that then fall away quickly maybe we'll see sustained sales over the next few months, only dropping off in the spring.
I think quite a few people may have held off buying anything to see what each game turns out like on release, for those, the GTS demo will be interesting.
I also suspect that many people will buy more than one racing game, maybe buying one in October and getting another for Christmas or even waiting for sales in the new year - buying with vouchers received at Christmas ? Instead of big sales up front that then fall away quickly maybe we'll see sustained sales over the next few months, only dropping off in the spring.
If you release on the Friday, your Friday & Saturday sales are counted for Monday's chart in the UK. A guy from industry paper MCV stated on Twitter the 1st week sales difference between a Tuesday vs Friday release is no more than 6%. This was when answering a question about Destiny 1 vs Destiny 2. Regardless, whatever the reason for the 1st week 74% drop, the 2nd week was a 50%+ drop. With Forza 7 releasing this week, and GT Sport in a couple of weeks, I can't see PCars 2 gaining momentum.
With hindsight it would have been better to release in December, or better still, in the first half of 2018. The window of opportunity is seriously small for PCars 2 without discounts. F1 2017 went on sale this week on PSN with 35% off, and that only released a month or two back.
- 15,532
- Cairo, Egypt
- GTP_SEMS
It doesn't tell the complete picture because it is physical sales only. What it does tell is that the physical sales of a sequel sold a quarter of the physical sales of the original within the same time frame (Week 1 sales accounted for more of a third of overall sales last time) in one of if not their biggest market.
Digital sales aren't even close to cover that loss. A 75% drop is a disaster.
Digital sales aren't even close to cover that loss. A 75% drop is a disaster.
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- Johnnypenso
Source please.
- 15,532
- Cairo, Egypt
- GTP_SEMS
Industry standard rate. Even if PCARS 2 has the highest digital attach rate of any AAA game of all time (the PC numbers don't support that) -- it still wouldn't be even close to cover the drop. That's assuming PCARS 1 sold zero digital copies.
- 28,470
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- Johnnypenso
In other words, as per usual, no source, pure speculation. Thanks for the update.
There isn't any evidence on PSN PCars 2 had great digital sales, let alone unprecedented in comparison to retail. If anything I would think digital sales were surpressed due to word of mouth re. technical issues, and the potential to trade in when Forza 7 and GT Sport release.
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- hejustsitsthere
The writing's on the wall for those that choose to read it.
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- Johnnypenso
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Lot of people complaining regarding campaign. I wonder if they will update the game with some sort of campaign if sales do not meet the expectations.
- 6,284
- Ottawa
- Pyano1132
The way this game is structured with vehicle categories and limited track selection, a traditional campaign would be hard to make without feeling repetitive or restrictive. It would essentially be Arcade mode races with a fancy UI and some credit bonuses.
If sales don't live up, Gran Turismo is either cancelled as a series or they'll go back to making GT7 for the PS5 or something. Those are the only two options I see.
- 28,470
- Windsor, Ontario, Canada
- Johnnypenso
In spite of the small and less than diverse car list, I think a campaign mode would be well suited to this game for a number of reasons:
1. The cars are BoP'd. You should be able to pick any car in any class and be competitive with the AI.
2. The cars are already separated into categories. You could run seasons in each of the various racing categories and progress your way up from N100 all the way to Group X or whatever the bottom and top classes are respectively. Running multi-class events would be great fun for those that like racing offline.
3. You can mimic the online portion of the game through the offline career, perhaps adding "Special Invitational Events" to your offline career that match the current races offered in the dedicated server lobbies. In other words, a great opportunity to tie the offline and online portions of the game together. Some creative work with leaderboards where fastest times in the offline races with limited contact allowed, could be kept and compared among friends and globally, both for the special events and the entire career.
4. Because of the somewhat rigid class structure of the game, an offline career would be a great way to familiarize yourself with each class of car. A test drive or invitational drive feature would be a unique and welcome addition as you progress through the classes. Awarding cars of your choice in the next class up after completing a series would be a good way to build a garage.
With some creative effort I think a revamped career mode would be a great addition to the franchise as DLC. Copying and pasting the old style of career to go with this game would be a mistake IMO. The real weakness of an offline career at this point is the track list, not the car list, also IMO. It doesn't offer a lot of variety and very few real world locations. Most of us can settle into a few favourite cars quite easily but having to run the same small rotation of tracks over and over gets pretty boring pretty quickly.
Tired Tyres
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That wouldn't improve sales. Street Fighter V shows that. It was marketed as an esport title. Those that wanted that bought it. That's all. They've added one player content. It hasn't added sales.
They are releasing Arcade mode as a free update in January. They know that won't add sales which is why they are also releasing an Arcade Edition to buy. They'll market that one differently and try to appeal to more players.
Therefore I don't think they can add something to GTS if it doesn't sell as they expect.
- 982
You seem to be in denial.
Publishers have reported industry standard to be 30% and predict 40% by the end of the year. This includes PC where 75-80% of sales are all digital so for consoles its much lower.
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1305615
Reality is that 75% drop is a disaster. We'll see if the drop is the same worldwide in due time.
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- Cairo, Egypt
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- 28,470
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- Johnnypenso
The only thing I'm denying is that you can't draw broad, sweeping conclusions from a tiny slice of data that the publisher of the data characterizes as "beyond a farce" and "almost irrelevant". The fact that you are willing to in spite of the blatant caveats from the publisher themselves, I think, speaks to your motivation. If we were speaking about GTSport sales I think you'd have no trouble agreeing with me that it's too soon to draw definite conclusions from this highly incomplete data.
- 982
Its not too soon to draw conclusions. The UK market is a good indicator in the past for other western territories and calling the biggest EU market as "almost irrelevant" only goes to further show your denial.
PC2 sales are also out on Steam with around 70k thus far. Its actually gone down over the past few days showing how more people have returned the title than bought it over the past few days. But yea continue acting like its beyond a farce.
PC2 sales are also out on Steam with around 70k thus far. Its actually gone down over the past few days showing how more people have returned the title than bought it over the past few days. But yea continue acting like its beyond a farce.
Scaff
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Those aren't my quotes, those are from the article itself, ridiculing and downplaying the significance of the data he presented, the data you are relying on. Denial indeed.
Since you mention it though, how are the Steam sales at this point relative to the same time period with last game?That would be a much more accurate estimation of how the game is doing, on pc at least.
marcvic
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- USA
- marcvic
I like the idea of regularly rotating seasonal events, featuring one-make races, hp battles, etc.
I don't think one bad go will lead to PD closing as a studio. If the GTS concept fails, I think they'll continue to build on it, but just add more offline content.
I'm still interested to see what the hundred-something campaign missions consist of. Or if they are already planning for seasonal events.
Tired Tyres
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They consist of the normal sort of things you previously did in the licence tests. This has been known for a long time.
As for closing PD. It was worked out during development of GT5 that PD had and annual operating budget of 12 million. That was then. Inflation has happened and they now have 200 staff. This game has taken four years to make. If it flops, given the below par sales of GT6..... Let me put it this way. If they were published by EA what do you think would happen next?
About 3-4 mln is max i see.
GTS will bomb in reviews like hell to something like 60/100 meta and that with working Day1 multiplayer which isn't something granted considering how only online games launched in the past.
Then there is world of mouth. From 7-8 friends who i play with racing games all of them bought 5 and half of them 6. Aside from me and one other dude none of them plan to even buy GTS and we both are like "if sucks, sell" attitude. From other gaming forums i visit people are shocked how GTS lacks content compared to other GT games. Most of us have PC so with Forza 7 we almost all bought it and we are pretty amazed by it. Aside from that we play Assetto Corsa and PC2.
GTS will bomb in reviews like hell to something like 60/100 meta and that with working Day1 multiplayer which isn't something granted considering how only online games launched in the past.
Then there is world of mouth. From 7-8 friends who i play with racing games all of them bought 5 and half of them 6. Aside from me and one other dude none of them plan to even buy GTS and we both are like "if sucks, sell" attitude. From other gaming forums i visit people are shocked how GTS lacks content compared to other GT games. Most of us have PC so with Forza 7 we almost all bought it and we are pretty amazed by it. Aside from that we play Assetto Corsa and PC2.
Tired Tyres
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You shouldn't underestimate what a USP the ridiculously realistic graphics it has represent, particularly to the casual gamer who will play it for around 2 hours a go. For this type of gamer, playing a game where the visual standards are above anything else on console games is a massive selling point. In terms of realism, I honestly can't think of a game that comes close.
marcvic
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Well yeah
, the modes have been known for a long time, but we've only seen like 10 of the 100-something events. I want to get a comprehensive look at all the events (which will happen soon enough).The PS3 era GT was massively successful, so one bad go won't close the studio. Moving 5+ million units is nothing to scoff at. Besides, who would replace them as the Sony first party racing title?
I struggle to find anything on PC that matches these PS4 exclusives. I've felt that way since PS3 era games.
Somewhat true. But GTS absolutely has no hype factor. GT5 unlike GTS had so much hype before release that even standard car controversy didn't sink it and it went on and sold as much as any other GT game.
This time is different. GTplanet is by far the most positive place about GTS from all gaming forums i read daily.
Unlike hype machine which can elevate sales from 0 to milions there is also reverse hype machine that can destroy sales of title. And GTS seems to be on that train fully with people all around complaining.
If by any chance reviewers will shut down whole party with 5/10 scores or worse in case of day1 issues you can be sure as hell that unhype train will accelerate like nothing else before and game will sell max 3-4mln mostly from casuals buying some racing game.
cutmeamango
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Lets see:
FIFA 18 Switch: ~8310.
FIFA 18 Switch week 1 >= Project CARS 2 week 2
Pretending CARS 2 sold same as FIFA (which it didn't):
PCARS2 week 2 = 46% PCARS2 week 1
PCARS2 week 2 = 8.310
PCARS2 week 1 = 18.605
PCARS week 1 = 400% PCARS 2 week 1
PCARS week 1 = 74.420
PCARS week 1 = 35% PCARS life time
PCARS life time = 212.628
PCARS has sold 2.4mi (plus ~400k from free Xbox weekend).
So UK retail alone was ~9% of its total sales.
FIFA 18 Switch: ~8310.
FIFA 18 Switch week 1 >= Project CARS 2 week 2
Pretending CARS 2 sold same as FIFA (which it didn't):
PCARS2 week 2 = 46% PCARS2 week 1
PCARS2 week 2 = 8.310
PCARS2 week 1 = 18.605
PCARS week 1 = 400% PCARS 2 week 1
PCARS week 1 = 74.420
PCARS week 1 = 35% PCARS life time
PCARS life time = 212.628
PCARS has sold 2.4mi (plus ~400k from free Xbox weekend).
So UK retail alone was ~9% of its total sales.
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