Estimate GT Sport sales

[Imari]

The more a driving title caters for the sim audience the less reviewer friendly it is.

You know why? Because sim racing, hardcore ultra-realistic sim racing, is a very niche category. Most people simply don't find it fun. Reviewers attempt to describe games and analyse them largely based on their appeal to a general audience. For sims, that appeal is low, hence the scores tend to be low.

If you read the actual reviews you'll see that sim racing titles usually get praised for doing what they do quite well, but then get points knocked off for not being approachable or entertaining for a general audience. And that's kind of how it should be.

If a 10 is a game that everyone should buy, and a 9 is a game that everyone should at least try, sim racers don't fit into either of those. That's why they tend to hit 8s at best (see AC and iRacing, arguably two of the best sims out there). You have to start making concessions to the casual crowd like Forza and traditional Gran Turismos in order to score higher.

Unfortunately, GTS seems to have removed a lot of that "casual appeal" in favour of becoming a console based iRacing. Best of luck to them, but I'll be shocked if it turns into another 10 million sales monster.

 

[PhaedrusSocrate]

Anyone know how many PS4-Pro consoles make up the total user base?

When they started selling Pro they were at about 40mil., and now they are at 65ish? With Sony claiming that Pro had only 20% share of sales after its release - I can only guess 60mil. regular and 4-5 mil. Pro's...
Not much need for Pro if you look towards GTSport, but if you wanna run pCARS2 in equally stable frame rate Digital Foundry recommends playing that in 1080p with Pro 👍

 

[Scaff]

When they started selling Pro they were at about 40mil., and now they are at 65ish? With Sony claiming that Pro had only 20% share of sales after its release - I can only guess 60mil. regular and 4-5 mil. Pro's...
Not much need for Pro if you look towards GTSport, but if you wanna run pCARS2 in equally stable frame rate Digital Foundry recommends playing that in 1080p with Pro 👍

I think we should reserve judgement on that until Digital Foundry have done the same review on GTS as well.

We know that the beta saw some quite noticeable frame rate drops (mid 40s at at times - as Digital Foundry reported), and that's without rain if it arrives.

As such based on what we know currently for both titles you will need a pro to maximise the frame rates, regardless of if its GTS or PC2.

 

[sems4arsenal]

http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2017-09-25-a-disappointing-week-for-uk-game-sales-maybe

Man, that was surprising. PCARS 2 down %74 (physical only) from the original game's launch numbers. Not gonna bother saying I told you so to some members here with unfounded claims. Hopefully it does better in other territories because this would've been easily avoidable.

 

[Scaff]

http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2017-09-25-a-disappointing-week-for-uk-game-sales-maybe

Man, that was surprising. PCARS 2 down %74 (physical only) from the original game's launch numbers. Not gonna bother saying I told you so to some members here with unfounded claims. Hopefully it does better in other territories because this would've been easily avoidable.

Indeed they are, quite possibly because those UK sales figures don't track digital sales at all, which the author describes as "Because in the UK, we're not tracking digital sales, and it's gone beyond a farce.".

For example the article also states that these results show that Destiny 2's sales have fallen by 50% as well, because again digital sales are not included.

So as the author also says "But when it comes to how brands are performing, or how the overall market is developing, it's almost an irrelevance."

Physical sales are falling and digital sales are increasing, and these figures show only half of the story.

Here's a question, based on the UK sales data you have cited here, how many copies would PUBG have sold? And you don't need access to the sales data to answer this one either.

 

[cutmeamango]

Destiny 2 digital is close to 30% which is above average but still doesn't make up for the lost sales.
PCARS2 only tracked for 2 days while PCARS1 tracked for 5.
It did horribly on X1 though, too close to Forza 7 possibly?

I'll wait til next monday and for Germany and France before Racing genre gloom and doom. But sheesh.

 

[sems4arsenal]

Indeed they are, quite possibly because those UK sales figures don't track digital sales at all, which the author describes as "Because in the UK, we're not tracking digital sales, and it's gone beyond a farce.".

For example the article also states that these results show that Destiny 2's sales have fallen by 50% as well, because again digital sales are not included.

So as the author also says "But when it comes to how brands are performing, or how the overall market is developing, it's almost an irrelevance."

Physical sales are falling and digital sales are increasing, and these figures show only half of the story.

Here's a question, based on the UK sales data you have cited here, how many copies would PUBG have sold? And you don't need access to the sales data to answer this one either.

They never did track digital sales. Not for the original Destiny not the original PCARS. Digital adoption did increase indeed but no where near to cover the 70%+ drop.

Destiny 2's numbers aren't good either.

Let's face it though, are you surprised PCARS 2 isn't doing well?

 

[Scaff]

They never did track digital sales. Not for the original Destiny not the original PCARS. Digital adoption did increase indeed but no where near to cover the 70%+ drop.

Destiny 2's numbers aren't good either.

Let's face it though, are you surprised PCARS 2 isn't doing well?

I'm saying that given the change in buying trends the information provided it insufficient to draw an accurate conclusion. Very much as the author of the article themselves said.

I've not made sales predictions for it (or GTS for that matter), and it may well of gone down, but what has been presented us insufficient data to say by how much.

What sort of drop do you think GTS will see using the same source over the sales of GT6?

 

[George Jakob]

it will sale around 5 because of its gimmick hardcore or at least very good drivers will get it but not so many casuals & lets face it most of the fan base are casual players.
if they made this GT7 this game would have been the best game ever and still has a tone of potancial i mean where is Spa Le mans etc? thats not the way to use the FIA License

 

[daan]

Loads of chat about PC2 removed. Lets try and stay on topic of GT Sport's sales.

 

[Corsa]

I voted high, over 5 million.
Some talk here of GT being more than a game, a brand so to say and that will drive sales.
Now whether those customers will be satisified with their purchase is another topic.
A brand name has incredible selling power, take a pair of Nikes...
Were they made in Indonesia, China, Taiwan, India, Thailand, Vietnam, Pakistan, Philippines, or Malaysia?
And which one is better?
Doesn't really matter does it.

 

[jake2013guy]

I've got GT6 down as 5.17m and GTS will never beat that. There are just better options out there for both content and what you expect from a GT game. I'd be amazed if it beats 4 million.

 

[George Jakob]

I've got GT6 down as 5.17m and GTS will never beat that. There are just better options out there for both content and what you expect from a GT game. I'd be amazed if it beats 4 million.

true but you can always have more than one

 

[jake2013guy]

true but you can always have more than one

Correct. But I've got no interest in GT Sport.

 

[AH49]

I've got GT6 down as 5.17m and GTS will never beat that. There are just better options out there for both content and what you expect from a GT game. I'd be amazed if it beats 4 million.

Those other options have barely made a dent in the marketplace......so they haven't attracted Gran Turismo's traditional playerbase.

The best selling driving game on PS4 is Driveclub with sales approaching 2.5m - thanks largely to 1st party bunding and promotions. With a 75m userbase by years end, and a company target of over 100m, bundling and promotions alone will generate multi-million sales. 3yrs from now, when we're all about PS5, PS4's will still be sold, with GT being one of the bundling staples for Sony and retailers. This is why a baseline of 6m for GT Sport is likely, my bet of 8.2m would be reliant on a decent reception, but more importantly, sustained support from PD, keeping the playerbase engaged, buying content, sharing experiences etc. On the PS4 driving front I don't see anything due in the next 18-24 months with the potential to shake the market up.

 

[PhaedrusSocrate]

Folks, regarding this topic of "estimated GTSport's sales" do you feel that existence of other racing titles (especially on PS4 platform), existence of competition basically, does in any way play part in "sales of GTSport"?
Or do you feel that existence of competing titles has nothing to do with topic of this thread?
How much that changes if they are on same platform, and how much if they are not?

 

[sems4arsenal]

Folks, regarding this topic of "estimated GTSport's sales" do you feel that existence of other racing titles (especially on PS4 platform), existence of competition basically, does in any way play part in "sales of GTSport"?
Or do you feel that existence of competing titles has nothing to do with topic of this thread?
How much that changes if they are on same platform, and how much if they are not?

Have to agree with that. The sales of a direct competitor have some sort of influence, so no idea why we can't discuss that.

 

[Johnnypenso]

Folks, regarding this topic of "estimated GTSport's sales" do you feel that existence of other racing titles (especially on PS4 platform), existence of competition basically, does in any way play part in "sales of GTSport"?
Or do you feel that existence of competing titles has nothing to do with topic of this thread?
How much that changes if they are on same platform, and how much if they are not?

We can only speculate of course, but in my opinion, other games will have little influence on the sales of GT. Sure some hardcore players will find another game more appealing for one reason or the other and buy it and stick to it but hardcore players don't make up the majority of sales in this genre in my opinion. I'm sure millions of units will move just through bundling in the holiday season when Mom or Dad goes to buy a system for a little Johnny or little Maria and sees GT as a relatively safe and non-violent option. One wonders however, what the sales of all of these different games would be if they all had equal access to the relatively easy bundled sale. I suspect all of the numbers would be dramatically different.

 

[PhaedrusSocrate]

Have to agree with that. The sales of a direct competitor have some sort of influence, so no idea why we can't discuss that.

Thank you!

And,

I don't even necessarily mean only sales of any competitor, but simply how THEY are received now after they are released - and how their reception by consumers of racing games might decrease or increase sales of GTSport - what is EXACTLY our topic here!

Topic remains allowed...
So, if fans of competing franchise, BUT those great fans who pre-ordered that other game (that shall remain nameless!) and rated it full 5/5 stars... Start going trough entire process to drop their own rating to 3/5 - CAN WE expect any effects of that on sales of GTSport that we could estimate?

(This thread being exactly that - ways to figure all possible effects to "Estimate sales of GTSport"!)

 

[Skew]

I voted for 3 million sales. I dont see this game doing nearly as well as a full GT game. This will be the first GT game ever that i dont buy because no single player, no career and online e sports focus is something i have no interest in. Sad days for a once legendary racing game series.

 

[PhaedrusSocrate]

I voted for 3 million sales. I dont see this game doing nearly as well as a full GT game. This will be the first GT game ever that i dont buy because no single player, no career and online e sports focus is something i have no interest in. Sad days for a once legendary racing game series.

Hello, new friend
Could you please point out ANY this-gen PlayStation racing game that is not actually worse then GTSport in any of categories you have mentioned?

Thanks

 

[ImaRobot]

Hello, new friend
Could you please point out ANY this-gen PlayStation racing game that is not actually worse then GTSport in any of categories you have mentioned?

Thanks

Why limit it to PlayStation? Let's just do consoles in general.

 

[Skew]

Well for me pcars 1 and 2 are better though they arent without their problems.

 

[Scaff]

Hello, new friend
Could you please point out ANY this-gen PlayStation racing game that is not actually worse then GTSport in any of categories you have mentioned?

Thanks

PS4 racing titles that are "not actually worse then GTSport in any of categories "?

OK, I pick single player and my list is:

F1 2016
F1 2017
Seb Loeb Rally Evo
Dirt Rally
Dirt 4
Driveclub
Project Cars
Project Cars 2
WRC 6 and 7

I'm quite sure I've forgotten a few as well, but all of them have a more extensive single player element than we have seen presented so far in GTS, however this still isn't a versus thread so please don'y attempt to turn it into one again.

How about instead you focus on what you believe GTS has that gives it a better single player than any of the above.

 

[PhaedrusSocrate]

PS4 racing titles that are "not actually worse then GTSport in any of categories "?

OK, I pick single player and my list is:

F1 2016
F1 2017
Seb Loeb Rally Evo
Dirt Rally
Dirt 4
Driveclub
Project Cars
Project Cars 2
WRC 6 and 7

I'm quite sure I've forgotten a few as well, but all of them have a more extensive single player element than we have seen presented so far in GTS, however this still isn't a versus thread so please don'y attempt to turn it into one again.

How about instead you focus on what you believe GTS has that gives it a better single player than any of the above.

Most of those are "one type of racing overused franchasis", actually not really aplicable.

For pCARS 1 and 2, if I even do not say a single word of my own - but instead quote the words (without any of my intervention in those quote) from a couple of premiere sites/reviewers of racing world, they will be deleted again.

And I will be acused of bias even though I would only like to quote such suorces...
And I will be acused of copy/paste even though I am only attempting to post them for once. For once without being deleted with dubious excuses... 👍

 

[Scaff]

Most of those are "one type of racing overused franchasis", actually not really aplicable.

Don't move the goalposts.

You said "ANY this-gen PlayStation racing game", you even emphasized the ANY, as such you don't to then try and change that.

For pCARS 1 and 2, if I even do not say a single word of my own - but instead quote the words (without any of my intervention in those quote) from a couple of premiere sites/reviewers of racing world, they will be deleted again.

Which is why I suggested you explain why GTS is better than all of those listed in terms of single player.

And I will be acused of bias even though I would only like to quote such suorces...
And I will be acused of copy/paste even though I am only attempting to post them for once. For once without being deleted with dubious excuses... 👍

Its not a verus thread, that's been explained numerous times.

 

[ImaRobot]

Most of those are "one type of racing overused franchasis", actually not really aplicable

 

[turnupdaheat]

PS4 racing titles that are "not actually worse then GTSport in any of categories "?

OK, I pick single player and my list is:

F1 2016
F1 2017
Seb Loeb Rally Evo
Dirt Rally
Dirt 4
Driveclub
Project Cars
Project Cars 2
WRC 6 and 7

I'm quite sure I've forgotten a few as well, but all of them have a more extensive single player element than we have seen presented so far in GTS, however this still isn't a versus thread so please don'y attempt to turn it into one again.

How about instead you focus on what you believe GTS has that gives it a better single player than any of the above.

Pardon me if I'm confused, but is it not true that directly after asking him not to continue along the versus angle you asked him to explain how GTS compares versus your list of games

 

[Scaff]

Pardon me if I'm confused, but is it not true that directly after asking him not to continue along the versus angle you asked him to explain how GTS compares versus your list of games

The difference is the focus and staying on topic.

Using a feature from another title as a reference point is perfectly acceptable in the context of the topic. For example:

'GTS doesn't appear to have the structured single player championship events that the majority of those listed do. It's something I spend a lot of time with and feel it's omission is a negative and impact sales'

Or

'GTS doesn't need the kind of single player championship events that the others have, I never have time for that kind of thing and spending time offline learning the tracks section by section is far more valuable and interesting. It's not going to reduce sales because it's more use to people than a stake old championship mode'

Both use other titles as a reference but focus on the topic in hand, which is GTS and it's single player elements.

What is not acceptable in this thread (and exactly why we have versus threads) is:

'GTS should never do what Title X does......'

Followed by paragraphs about what the other title has got wrong, with little to no further reference to GTS at all.

It's the difference between using other titles as a reference point while discussing what GTS is and isn't doing, against using a vague reference to GTS to focus on what you dislike about another title.

We have threads to discuss both of these approaches, and this isn't one for the later approach.

 

[dbarrade]

PS4 racing titles that are "not actually worse then GTSport in any of categories "?

OK, I pick single player and my list is:

F1 2016
F1 2017
Seb Loeb Rally Evo
Dirt Rally
Dirt 4
Driveclub
Project Cars
Project Cars 2
WRC 6 and 7

I'm quite sure I've forgotten a few as well, but all of them have a more extensive single player element than we have seen presented so far in GTS, however this still isn't a versus thread so please don'y attempt to turn it into one again.

How about instead you focus on what you believe GTS has that gives it a better single player than any of the above.

I'd like to say that the depth with which Gran Turismo and from what I've seen of GT Sport goes to teach you how to drive is very important for me personally. The explanations of the weight transfer, being smooth, drafting, simple corners and then how to link corners, striving to get those golds and understand why I got that gold is far more satisfying to me than race after race where I feel like I'm gradually getting better but I can't really put my finger on what I did to get better. I also really liked downloading ghosts of people with far better technique than I have and trying to mimic them.

For the same reason, I tend more to doing a driver training day, recently skid pan and wet tracks with diesel where an instructor is talking me through the turn in, spin the rears, off the steering wheel, feel the car balance, trace the corner with the wheel whilst modulating the rear friction level... if I was to try and learn this myself through trial and error it would take far longer and some of that doesn't feel intuitive to me after driving consistently below the limit of traction for so many years.

This also comes out in the latest video that Kaz has put up about drifting and another video I've seen from him where they ask about buying upgrades for a car and he says to spend the money on improving your driving skill. This I feel is his intention for a lot of what we call "single player".

This is not to say that I didn't enjoy buying a car, racing, winning money, improving the car, winning money, buying a better car, rinse repeat.

I also enjoyed getting a feel for all the different racing disciplines. I was really surprised at how much I loved the Nascar oval races and my respect for the drivers grew immensely.

I think this Gran Turismo has deliberately left that out due to the many reviews hating on the grind and talking about a lack of focus by taking variety a little too far and including driving on the moon etc.

So those last few things I believe most of the above will do better than Gran Turismo Sport, but I don't think any will come close to how it is going to help me improve my skills, which is my expectation of single player now that we have easily accessible multiplayer. Friends are more fun to race than AI. Now we don't have to lug the Playstation and a TV to a friends place to race them, single player can have an even greater focus on improving skills imho.